Halladay Road (con't)

These seem logical to me. Although it does feel kind of odd saying that the Phils are the only other team that has the resources to make this happen. Not used to that.

Two weeks ago I think I would have rather have seen them take Happ so we were able to retain more prospects, but after Cole’s recent slop I’d rather retain Happ and be down another prospect.

Additionally, Doc’s salary shouldn’t be cause for concern. He’s slated for approx. $15M in 2010, which is only three more than Myers’ $12M that comes off the books this year. Seems like a three million dollar differential well spent to me.

I would drive a hard bargain. Three players total, only one of whom may be Taylor or Brown or Happ or Carrasco. Take it or leave it.

Unlikely that they’d take that deal, but I’m okay with that.

I don’t mind losing Knapp.

I’m not sure anybody on the Phillies, or many people in all MLB for that matter, have changed their perceived value so much in half a season. Before 2009, most of us saw Happ as potentially a good fourth starter… at best. Now he’s a fairly serious Rookie of the Year contender.

But is there that much of a chance he’ll be the guy we’ve seen the last six weeks for years to come? I don’t think so. He’s a smart guy (Northwestern!) and has a few pitches, but none of them are devastating and on days when his location isn’t sharp, he’ll get knocked around.

His value to the Phillies right now is such that I’d be hesitant to include him, to the point where doing so would mean Toronto gets an overall worse package. Depending on how much one likes Blanton, Happ is our best or second-best starter at the moment—which means that even replacing him with Halladay doesn’t help all that much in-season. Over a period of years, though, I still think he’s a slightly above .500 pitcher whose ERA usually will sit between 4 and 4.50. That’s valuable, very valuable when you consider that he’ll be cheap until 2012. But I don’t think we’re looking at a perennial all-star pitcher or Cy Young award candidate by any stretch.

Our friend buster olney seems to think Rube should call Toronto tonight and essentially tell the Jays to pick ANY three As, one B and one C and ship Doc over Wednesday. I think I’d slit my wrists if we agreed to that nonsense. It’s on ESPN I’m too lazy to do a link from my phone.

From the perspective of a Phillies fan, all the parameters make a ton of sense, with the only exception being that I’d be willing to give up Drabek depending on how that altered the rest of the deal.

However, trying to stay neutral or think like the Jays, I don’t see the Phillies being able to dictate anything if they expect to have a chance. Any attempt to do so seems likely to just push the Jays towards a team in their division, or trying to make the Rangers work despite their money issues. Or, even worse, the Dodgers, Cardinals, or Brewers.

Not saying we should bid against ourselves, and I think we’re in the best position, but there’s literally no chance we will be the only ones bidding here.

Really interested in seeing what type of package from the Phillies a Blue Jays fan would like. On Drunk Jays Fans, there was a commenter who said Drabek/Carrasco/Marson/Donald/Brown wasn’t enough, but I doubt he knows anything about any of them.

I actually am more set against Halladay now than ever. First, we have won a world series, so we shouldn’t be desperate. Second, Halladay in NO way grants us a World Series. In fact, with this offense, he may actually be a bit overkill. Winning 6-2 nets the same result as a 6-4 win. I don’t think we NEED a Roy Halladay. A team like the Mets might, but we don’t.

I’d be happy with a second tier pitcher.

Halladay is 32 and has pitched a ton of innings in his career. Santana is 30 and was 28 when the Mets traded for him, and gave up their Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 7 prospects. So that would be like the Phils keeping one of Drabek, Brown and Taylor trading away the other two and Carrasco and another top 10 prospect. But Halladay is 4 years older than Santana was. The same friend said Drabek and Taylor should be off the table (keeping top pitching and all-around), and I agree . Give them Happ (who is obviously the most-ready to pitch, including a shutout against Toronto), Taylor and one of the catching prospects. If they could pull that off, then I’m all for it. The trade would allow them to walk away with the division and give them Halladay/Hammels as a sick 1-2 punch in the playoffs. But whatever happens, it’s nice that the Phils have the farm to make us ponder such things.

Randy Miller was on 950 ESPN yesterday saying that his sources told him that team simply doesn’t have the budget to trade for Halladay. They could do it next year when Myers is off the books, but ownership simply can’t/won’t pick up the $7 million or so still owed to Halladay this year.

Jody Mac was pretty skeptical that money could be what scuppers the deal… but it’s worth mentioning.

The question i would posit is “Is Miller just being the organizations mouthpiece”. If the organization says it up front that they can’t take on the 7 mil (with or without pedro) – it’s taken badly – maybe from a ‘beat’ reporter it’s less harsh – i don’t know – i just know the phils worry more about fan reaction then I’ve seen other well run organizations.

Amaro’s first mentor was Wade, and he spent a lot longer with Ed than he did with Gillick. Wade never dealt prospects, which usually was for the best. (Didn’t Beane want Utley and Madson for Barry Zito?) And like Wade, Amaro came up as an assistant GM who was focused on budgets and contracts—which means he’s mindful that young players are major assets in that regard, costing near the minimum as they do, in addition to whatever they contribute on the field.

So with all that in mind, and the Toronto newspaper report that the Jays “don’t like the prospects the Phillies are offering,” I bet Amaro really is keeping all his best trade chips out of the discussion right now.

Which is (or would be) great. If he holds the line at Donald, Savery and D’Arnaud until July 26, and then finally says, “Okay, J.P, you’ve twisted my arm—Carrasco instead of Savery, and I’ll add Taylor,” and that’s the deal, I for one would be thrilled.

Taschner, Walker… parade’s well underway.

First, I truly believe that Taylor is NOT THAT FAR AWAY. Plus, the Jays don’t need OFers right now, so I hope and doubt that he’ll be involved. I also don’t see a need for both Marson and D’Arnaud, plus the Jays will need a catcher next year, and I think the Phils like Ruiz, so we dont need a catcher for another few years. Those things in mind, I think Marsons a shoe in if this trade goes down. I also thing Donald will be involved for the same reason Marson will be (we don’t need him, but they do). After that, I think that Corrasco and Knapp should be available. I don’t think either will amount to much, since neither have been consistanly good at every level like Drabek or Hamels before them. Lastly, I wouldn’t mind Happ being thrown in. I doubt his value will be any higher than it is now. Plus with Pedro signed, we CAN include him without much regret. Whoever said it before, Happs not that good. I think he might turn out to be a lot like Kendrick, once teams have seen him for a full year, they will shell him.

So to me, a good trade would be Happ, Donald, Marson, and Corrasco/Knapp (maybe both). Does that look fair? I don’t think losing any if those guys will hurt us too much.