Pedro Martinez: A Tale of Two NL Pitchers

by David S. Cohen on Jul 16, 2009 11:42 AM EDT

What kind of pitcher did the Phillies sign last year? A dominant strikeout artist who keeps the ball in the park? Or a struggling slop thrower who gives up gopher balls? Since Pedro Martinez returned to the NL in 2005, he's been both.

From 2005 through 2007, Pedro was the dominant Hall of Fame Pedro. He started 31 games in 2005, finishing the year with a 2.82 ERA. His 2006 was shortened by injury, but he still got in 23 starts and had a league-average 4.48 ERA. 2007 was almost a complete wash due to injury, but in the 5 starts he did manage to get in, he was great, posting a 2.57 ERA.

Then there was 2008 when he turned into Adam Eaton. Pedro continued to be plagued by injury, but his troubles were compounded by the death of his father. He started 20 games for the Mets and finished the year with a terribel 5.61 ERA.

The differences between 2005 through 2007 and 2008 are stark, as the chart below shows:

Season(s)	IP	ERA	ERA+	WHIP	HR/9	K/BB
2005-07	377.67	3.38	124	1.04	0.9	4.05
2008	109	5.61	75	1.57	1.6	1.98
Career	2782.67	2.91	154	1.05	0.8	4.14

So which Pedro will show up for the Phillies this year? The dominant Pedro of 2005 through 2007? Or the horrible Pedro of 2008?

The answer lies, I hope, in the last line of the chart I included here. Pedro's performance from 2005 through 2007 is very much in line with his career averages. Even though he was pitching several years removed from his peak, he was still pitching great, just as he has his entire career. 2008 is completely different, and completely out of line with his career. Injuries and personal tragedy struck him hard. If the Phillies did their proper due diligence in investigating his health, we can hope that Pedro's return in 2009 will find him performing like his old self once again. It's hard to believe that he just all of a sudden lost it in 2008 when he hadn't in the years before.

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Let’s also factor in that he was pitching in Shea. He definitely had an advantage there as well.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 16, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions

Has anyone looked at the home/away splits?

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by JasonB on Jul 16, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

There were hints of the good Pedro even in the '08 numbers...

If you take his last start in July along with all of his August starts, that is an 8 start stretch during which he had a 3.50 ERA. If he’s truly healthier I think it’s likely he’ll be at least league average.

by PhanofPhilly on Jul 16, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

Looking at these numbers confirms what I think most people think – this signing was great as far as risk/reward goes. There is a lot of evidence pointing to him being worth the million dollars. The phillies only need him to pitch adequately (4.00 ERA, 5-6 innings a game) which he has been able to do. His has had ample time to recover from injuries. At his age, probably the fact that he has been away from baseball for so long works in his favor. Also, getting signed midway through the season helps, because I believe the most probable outcome is that he starts off strong and then starts to falter. By the time he is faltering, the season will be about over (hopefully they dont try and get him to pitch important playoff games if he looks done).

All of these things tend to make the signing a success even if it is a failure, because the potential was worth it. It will still be disapponting if he sucks though.

Also, no one has talked about this as far as I have seen, but is there any issue with him playing from the bull pen? It seems to me like in Late September/October, if he gets kind of worn out, he might be best utilized as a 6th/7th inning relief pitcher. I just have to think he could throw 20-30 good pitches a game, even if he starts to lose it otherwise. This would also help increase the value he gives when with all liklihood we wont want him starting for late important games.

by Whack8888 on Jul 16, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions