Trade Victorino?
by jonk on Jul 19, 2009 10:37 PM EDT
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I have been thinking about this for a while and I think this is the best move to make for the Phillies. Vic is still fairly young and inexpensive and has reached his likely peak value...ever. All-star with an OBP above .370. You move Werth to center and then use one of your young OF's to fill in. I think this is what smart teams do in terms of getting the most value from their players. I won't kill the Phils for not doing this as it is easier to put Vic out there and hope for the best. I think what you could get for him and prospects + playing Taylor or even Mayberry is more valuable than what Victorino brings.
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good point...
but Vic is one of the guys that gets us going when J-Roll isnt. He is having a heck of a season, and the way Werth and Ibanez are playing, they could afford to give up Vic as long as they keep Taylor.
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Oh, and I'm first!!!!! haha
My Miami Dolphins webpage is www.playoffboundsports.com Come on over and join the discussion.
The outfield would be stacked in a couple of years
even if we traded Vic, we would still have Werth, Ibanez, Mayberry, Taylor, and Stairs is he does not retire!
If we keep Vic, I could easily see our outfield being one of the best in the league in a year or two.
My Miami Dolphins webpage is www.playoffboundsports.com Come on over and join the discussion.
I don’t really like the idea of trading somebody JUST because his value is high. toronto doesn’t need another outfielder and I dont think he’d be a crucial part of any halladay deal.
also, I know nobody likes to make decisions based on basically anything else than stats, best chance to win, etc. but I feel like there is SOME value that vic brings to us as fans (similar to the bat’s) and that should be weighed in to some extent.
so, blah blah blah, I dont think we should sign barry bonds even if he gives us a better chance to win.
Victorino really isn’t THIS good though. Keeping around lesser talent because they are a favorite is so 1980ish. We have good replacements for him and we need a pitcher (doesn’t HAVE to be Halladay). Vic is like the perfect gut to trade right now.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Do we really need a pitcher? I’m about 85% serious here. The starting rotation’s ERA since June 1 is 3.71.
Do you think that has anything to do with luck? I love Happ, but is he this good? No way. Blanton has come around, but he isn’t this good either. Who knows with Moyer and Pedro. I don’t think we NEED Halladay, but I’d love a decent 5% above league average pitcher…um, like Pat Maholm.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it had something to do with luck, but we’ve also had some bad luck at the same time in the form of Hamels. I think 3.71 is better than the median expected performance for this rotation, but not by a huge margin and it’s not implausible that it will continue in the short term. It’s certainly much closer to what we should expect going forward than the rotation’s overall stats for the season are. Their performance in April and May was highly uncharacteristic and flukish, especially for Hamels and Blanton.
Victorino for Maholm is not a realistic trade. Pittsburgh just traded Nate McLouth to make room in centerfield for McCutchen. Why would they want Victorino? This is the dilemma. You can’t trade Victorino, an arb-eligible player, to a rebuilding team for an established starter. A rebuilding team wants prospects for its established players, not another established player. Conversely, you can’t trade Victorino to a contender for an established starter in the middle of July, because the contender will probably need the established starter just as much as it might be able to use Victorino.
This has nothing to do with Hamels. I didn’t mention him at all. What I am looking at is what the likelihood of pitchers continuing to pitch well and if they make the post season, doing well there. Myers basically carried this team down the stretch last year. Moyer shows no signs of being able to do that and Blanton is pitching well, but I have no idea if that is an anomoly. We should be looking to replace Moyer.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Hamels is relevant because my initial point was that we shouldn’t be desperate to improve the rotation since the rotation has pitched pretty well lately and you responded that that was just luck. Hamels’ ERA is part of the rotation’s ERA so any luckiness or unluckiness in the former has to be considered in determining the luckiness or unluckiness of the latter.
I like Maholm and he’s obviously a better commodity than Moyer, but I don’t see a terribly compelling basis for concluding that he’d be so much better in August and September 2009, or that the Moyer-to-Maholm upgrade would be larger than the Victorino-to-Stairs+Mayberry downgrade. Moyer’s actually been pitching better than Maholm of late, surprisingly enough.
What did pat bring to the fans aside from a reason for them to needlessly boo?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 20, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t necessarily be opposed to doing this in the offseason, but the timing would be all wrong right now. Mayberry isn’t really a viable option, so trading Victorino would really mean putting all our eggs in the Taylor basket. I think there’s a pretty good chance that Taylor will be good, but, you know, maybe he won’t. Or maybe he isn’t quite ready, despite his age. Or even if he is, maybe he’ll have to go through an adjustment period. Making this trade in July would deprive us of any ability to plan ahead for any bumps, to adjust, to pick up new personnel if necessary, or to allow Taylor to work out any initial kinks. It just doesn’t make sense, especially considering that Victorino will still have trade value in the offseason – it might be a bit lower, but our risk level would be lower too. (There’s also the fact that trading Victorino would be a “sell”, and therefore would almost certainly mean trading him to a contender, i.e. strengthening a potential postseason opponent. I think this is a lesser consideration, but it’s there.)
Also, I have somewhat less than 100% confidence that Victorino really is at his peak. It’s not like his good performance this season came out of nowhere. Rather, he’s been improving gradually and steadily (on offense, at least) for years. He could get better. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t bet against it either.
Shane is 28 years old and has had his OPS+ go up steadily for the last 3 years. The odds of it continuing to go up are pretty slim, especially since he was below league average before last year.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Why? Is there a three-year limit on increases in OPS+? 28 is within a typical peak period but not at the tail end. Is it that unlikely that he might peak at 29 or 30 instead? Even if he doesn’t continue to improve, is there clear evidence that he’s going to start going into reverse right away? On what basis are you so certain? Do players normally fall off significantly between their age 28 and age 29 seasons?
And in any event, that’s only the second-biggest problem I have with trading Victorino in July, as I stated above.
Did you write that I was certain? How certain are you it won’t go down? What kind of silly comment is that? Of course I am not certain. He could turn into Barry Bonds for all I know. I am playing the odds. Heck, Deion Sanders is in his top 10 most comparable players. His value is at it’s highest RIGHT now and odds are it will only go down. It may flatline for a bit, but he isn’t that great of a commodity right now anyway. Good OBP, meh SLG and questionable defense.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
You wrote “Victorino really isn’t THIS good” and “has reached his likely peak value…ever” and that “the odds of [his OPS+] continuing to go up are pretty slim.” That sure sounds to me like you were trying to suggest it’s near certain that he’s presently overvalued. Am I certain it won’t go down? No, but unlike you, I never suggested that I was – I think I made myself pretty clear on that point in my 7:07 comment. All I’m saying is that I don’t think it’s a “slim” possibility that his OPS+ will continue to go up. It’s considerably more likely than the odds of him turning into either Deion Sanders or Barry Bonds.
And again, that’s only the second-biggest problem I have with trading Victorino in July, as I stated above.
My preference (for the offseason) would be to trade Ibanez, for whom you really can say with almost 100% certitude that he’s having a career year. You might get less for him than you would for Victorino, but then again, maybe not.
Also, I could be wrong but I believe Taylor is playing left in the minors. I’m not sure what that says about his ability to handle right since he’s supposed to have a good arm. But maybe he’s more comfortable there.
With Rauls contract and age, theres really no way we would be able find someone to take him in a trade, its just not going to happen.
I think Taylor would be fine anywhere in the OF. They say his a “5 tool player” and those are usually the kinda guys that will excel where ever you put them in the OF.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 20, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes it’s unrealistic to expect to get somebody young in exchange for for Ibanez, but I think you could trade him for another older, well-paid player at a different position. For instance, in another thread I threw out Chris Carpenter’s name. The point of the trade wouldn’t be to get younger or fleece the other team, but just to shift our assets around to other parts of the field.
Hmm…..now playing in CF for the Phillies…
Marlon Byrd!
He was going to be the next awesome OFer too, and he just couldn’t get it done when it was his time. I’m glad he’s doing adequate for TEX now, but trading Vic and inserting Taylor into the lineup seems like a very bad idea. Wait for Taylor to be ready, then re-assess.
We could get by with a Mayberry/Stairs split and see almost the same level of offensive production Shane is giving us. We have a TON of options, but I think we need a decent pitcher and Shane is at his highest value right now.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Victorino
Victorino is our spark plug! Do not trade him. I think we are getting spoiled in Philly; and that’s a good thing. But, I would not break up this offense, especially when our pitching matches up with any staff in the N.L. I say offer any 4 minor leaguers, excluding Taylor and Drabek, plus a Durbin or Condrey for Halliday. They don’t bite, fine, go after Oswalt, Hughes, or Webb.
mark ferraro
Good idea
Ive been thinking about this for a while, but this is the kind of move that screams to be made in the offseason for a few reasons. 1) We can win now, and unless we get a really good SP in return (Lee or Halladay are the only 2 that are ‘available’), moving Victorino only hurts that chance. 2) Mayberrys just not that good, and I dont think Taylors ready for the bigs just yet (but he probably will be next year). 3) It would hurt the team chemistry because Victorino is probably irreplacable in the clubhouse.
But yeah, something needs to be done. The Phils have a lot of really good OFs in the system, but theyre all blocked for the next few years. The best realistic option I see is to move either Victorino or Werth.
One problem with moving Victorino and replacing him with Taylor down the road is our team would become far to reliant on the long balls. We already are to dependant on HRs to win us games, and moving Vic would only hurt that.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 20, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions
Too dependent on the HR? Why os that a bad thing since one hit scores you a run versus 2 or more? Not that I even know that is true. You want MORE HR hitters on your team, not less.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
its like relying too heavily on the three point shot. An good homer rate for a player is one every 15 ABs. In a normal game you get ~35 ABs or 2 HRs (except not everybody hits at that clip…Howard, Utley, Werth, and Ibanez might be there…but nobody else would be even close I doubt, and especially not the #9 hitter/pitcher).
If your players can’t get on base ahead of the power hitters, they become solo homers, and it’s still quite possible/likely to lose a game where you get 3 hits, all solo homers. You need balance, so you can score different ways.
Did you put all your money in GM stock?
Go into a homer drought and you’ve got zilch chance of winning.
I remember a series at seattle about 3 years ago where the phils would just crush balls that died on their warning track. Couldn’t score a run any other way.
It just doesn’t work that way. Homers likely account for more than 50% of all scoring. And to compare it to 3 point shooting is silly. It’s not an either/or proposition. Howard is the only player on this team that you could say is overly reliant on home runs and he has hit more in his first 650 games than anyone in history. Having home run hitters on your team is a positive, not a negative. It helped us win a World Series last year.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Our 3 OF’s are too instrumental to this team right now. If you move one it’s gotta be in the offseason. Shipping off a Victorino or Werth could send shockwaves through the clubhouse.
by andyreidswaistline on Jul 20, 2009 11:11 PM EDT reply actions
hmm
what kind of return could we get for vic .. i am not a fan of him .. he didnt deserve to be in the allstar game .. i really love brown .. but taylor is more mj league ready .. so out of those two .. one is going to be a true superstar .. so i say keep them both .. trade vic .. maybe him and a prospect like knapp lands u haren .. or another pitcher .. and u dont lose much offensively .. victorino really isnt that good .. hes just in a good line up .. hasnt been stealing bases either .. i whpuld rather trade him than any of the prospects .. donald needs to stay .. he replaces feliz .. drabek is a star .. marson i want to keep but if not we have more catching prospects on the way .. but donald drabek and one of the ofs should be untouchable ..
by jack is better than asante on Jul 21, 2009 1:32 AM EDT reply actions
I think Shane’s VORP is in the top 50 in the league. Even if he’s not a great offensive player is a pretty big risk to take him out of the lineup when you have no idea how Taylor will handle the big leagues. In the off season it might make sense, but I don’t want any starters, sans Happ, to be moved at the deadline.
Donald may have value because of the his eventual positional need, but I feel he isn’t a good enough to prospect to be untouchable.
I believe Drabek, Knapp and Brown are claimed to be untouchable for what that’s worth.
If the Phils stay true to that, it still leaves us with some combination of Happ, Carrasco, Taylor, Donald and Marson to trade for a big pitcher (Halladay).
NOOOOO!!!!!
The only reason the Phigtin’ Phils get ANY play here in paradise is because the Flyin’ Hawaiian is on the team. Nothing gets me more stoked in the morning than to open the crappy local rag here in Hilo and see Shane’s grill on the front page of the two page sports section. As a diehard Phills fan in Hawaii, loosing Shane would be devastating. I am thousands of miles from a decent cheesesteak, and Shane is the only link I have to Philthydelphia. So please, for my sake, stop the insanity.
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix
by philly420pdxhilo on Jul 22, 2009 12:02 AM EDT reply actions
Best reason not to in terms of a fan perspective.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Mahalo Brah!
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Jimi Hendrix
by philly420pdxhilo on Jul 22, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Unbelievable
I can’t believe some of these comments. Some players bring intangibles to the game that you can not put a price tag on. You people sound like a bunch of bean counters that want to get the maximum amount of value for players. Moyer, who should be home enjoying his grandkids, goes out and busts his ass for you people to win games. You people have been watching too much Fantasy sports.
by fan since late 40's on Jul 22, 2009 12:35 AM EDT reply actions
Is wanting to get the maximum amount of value for players somehow a bad thing? Seems like a good way to run a baseball team to me.
Seriously, I don’t completely reject the intangibles argument, but you most certainly can put a price tag on them. If the Indians call up and say “we must have Victorino. Here’s Grady Sizemore” I’ll take that deal.
How exactly does one watch fantasy sports?
Forgive him – he’s still very tired from walking to school barefoot, in the snow, up hill, both ways
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 22, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions
trade him
hes peaked .. taylor needs a place to play
by jack is better than asante on Jul 22, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions
Thank you for your comments gentlemen. I walked to high school in Philly, and with the hills, it was uphill both ways. It also snowed in the winter. My grandkids don’t think I’m a curmudgeon. I refereed soccer for 18 years and had to give it up when I got bladder cancer.
I still think running a baseball team for maximum profit is not necessarily the best way.
by fan since late 40's on Jul 22, 2009 7:39 PM EDT reply actions
silly
the phillies are at an unusual place for them where the only goal is winning a world series this year and maybe next. shane victorino is a big part of that. if the phillies were a small market team on the rebuild trading him might be a good idea, but they aren’t and it isn’t.
The other problem i have with this is that the thinking goes something like “shane has peaked and is as good as he will ever be. we waited through his developmental years and the growing pains but now this is as good as he will get so we better trade him away to make room for someone else to go through the growing pains so we can in turn trade away his peak years just as they begin.” also there is this crazy idea that you can get established talent for established talent these days. the mcrgriff and fernandez for alomar and carter deal was ages ago. most deals now are talent for kids or change of scenery trades like the francoure murphy trade.
i understand that it is more fun to play billy beane and try to make a contender with fewer rexources, but the phills aren’t in that boat. they need to use what they have to win a world series in the present and near future. the way you do that is by trading off the right prospects for the right established bits to help you while keeping the young guys that are most useful.
taylor
taylor is already as good as victorino but hits for power .. and brown has a higher ceiling than both
by jack is better than asante on Jul 22, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
And how do you know taylor is ‘already as good’ as victorino?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 23, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Well said.
I think talk of trading Victorino or Werth or Ibanez is just a matter of playing with the possibilities, something Peter Gammons apparently loves to do, by the way. Unless you’re talking about an upgrade at third base, to someone like Ryan Zimmerman, or behind the plate, to someone like Brian McCann, I don’t see why you’d go looking for a change with the starting eight. The bench and the pitching might see something happen, even in August, but I think the team on the field most nights is the team we’ll see in October, should things continue to go well.
by phillyinportland on Jul 23, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Horrible, horrible idea. There is no reason to do it. You are proposing to trade a known commodity because a prospect MAY be able to put up better numbers. Taylor hasn’t even been in AAA for a week yet. Having “too many” good players is a good problem to have.
The way the team is set up right now, the best option is to hold Taylor in AAA for another season. Werth’s contract ends after next year and he’ll be 31. If Taylor keeps hitting in AAA next year then you can afford to let him go and likely get pretty good draft pick compensation for him. Dominic Brown’s development time also fits nicely with Ibanez’s contract.
A known commodity? What is known about Shane? That he is performing at his highest level, ever? He was never a great prospect and we even tried to give him back for nothing and were told, nah, you keep him. He has played well this year, but that doesn’t mean I expect him to keep it up. He may, and I’ll eat my words if he does (since we all know he ain’t going nowhere). But he is a decent trade chip and we don’t NEED him, especially when we have pieces that can fill in for him right now. He would likely have more value getting a replacement for Moyer.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
I see your point
His value definitely will never be higher, but a point was made earlier that there is little reason to mess with the makeup of the current starting 8 save for a serious upgrade at a given position. Taylor and Mayberry may be able to hold down the fort but they may also struggle and right off the bat, probably would not be an upgrade of what is out there.
If the Jays require him in a trade for Halladay or the Indians in a trade for Lee (neither of which is terribly likely given their outfields) then you definitely have to think about it, but otherwise I think you keep the current 8 in tact save for a more definite upgrade.
"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark
Victorino or Werth
Who do you think is more valuable? Werth and Victorino have had similar years in that they are doing very well. At this point if you had to trade away or let one go to free agency which one would you let go and why?
Feel the beat of Philadelphia Sports @ phillysportspulse.com/forums
by phillysportspulse on Jul 25, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions
Werth, and it's not close
He’s better at everything but batting average. I’m not even sure Victorino is a better centerfielder.
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