Kendrick II?
by dajafi on Jul 20, 2009 4:41 PM EDT
16 comments
It’s getting to the point where one almost can’t write a story about Phillies lefty J.A. Happ without using words like "unflappable" or "composure," and I know because I’ve been doing it myself. That’s the sort of label a pitcher gets when he shows the ability to get out of trouble as deep as what Happ found himself in Sunday afternoon in Florida, when the Marlins loaded the bases with no outs on two singles and a booted shoulda-been double play ball. The rookie preserved a 4-0 lead on a pop-up and two strikeouts. With the seven scoreless innings he fired against the Marlins, Happ raised his record to 7-0 and lowered his ERA to 2.68, almost two runs lower than the next best Phillies starters.
It occurred to me recently, however, that I might have seen this play out before. In several ways, J.A. Happ’s 2009 season is unfolding very much like Kyle Kendrick’s 2007. Which means that in addition to those descriptors noted above, we probably should add "lucky."
Here are Happ’s 2009 splits, by game situation:
None on: .267/.315/.436, BABIP .301
Runners on: .154/.270/.272, BABIP .155
RISP: .081/.191/.135, BABIP .081
The Hardball Times has Happ's Fielding Independent Pitching measure at 4.40--nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA of 2.68. The astonishing good fortune of his situational BABIP (batting average on balls in play) explains the difference, and history--including recent Phillies history--suggests that it's unsustainable. Which is where Kyle Kendrick comes in.
When Kendrick came up from Reading in June 2007, it was initially to make one emergency start. Nobody expected much from the 22 year-old, with reason: he had a 3-7 won-lost mark in two months and change at AA, and his previous minor-league record was respectable but unspectacular. His reputation was that he threw strikes and had a good head on his shoulders. But the baseball gods, as they sometimes do, sprinkled the Pacific northwest native with magic dust: he won his first start, got another, and within a few weeks we were hailing him as--say it with me--composed and unflappable. Kendrick's 2007 splits by game situation:
None on: .305/.348/.511, BABIP .306
Runners on: .245/.293/.344; BABIP: .254
RISP: .297/.271/.310; BABIP: .216
His 2007 FIP of 4.90 was more than a run higher than his ERA of 3.87.
Kendrick began the 2007 season without so much as an invite to major-league spring training. He ended it by starting Game Two of the 2007 National League Division Series, earning some Rookie of the Year votes for his troubles. Unfortunately for Kendrick, the sequel wasn’t nearly as much fun. After a reasonably solid first half to the 2008 campaign in which he went 8-3 with a 4.47 ERA, the bottom fell out after the all-star break: a 3-6 record, a 7.59 ERA, and banishment first from the starting rotation, then the post-season roster as the Phillies stormed to their second World F. Championship. His situational splits for the full season:
None on: .316/.373/.524; BABIP .325
Runners on: .288/.368/.448; BABIP: .291
RISP: .281/.358/.431; BABIP: .282
This time around, Kendrick's FIP of 5.58 was a close approximation of his 5.49 ERA.
Will something like this be Happ’s fate in 2010 (or, heaven help us, sooner)? I don’t think so. The split similarities belie some important underlying differences: Happ’s strikeout rate is higher than Kendrick’s, he’s got several average to above-average pitches where Kyle really just had a plus sinker that hitters soon learned to lay off, he’s far from helpless against righty hitters where Kendrick was at the mercy of almost every lefty bat, and he has a better (and longer) minor league track record.
I’d be very surprised if Happ finds himself back in the minors two years hence, as Kendrick is in 2009. But what wouldn’t surprise me is if he eventually settles in as the solid fourth starter we originally hoped he’d be, rather than the ace-level performer he’s looked like since joining the Phillies’ rotation in late May.
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I would say he can be a #3 but otherwise I agree. (The numerical designations that people give to starting pitchers aren’t all that meaningful anyway. Subjective and ill-defined.)
Even I would pull the trigger on a Halladay trade if Happ were the centerpiece. But Ricciardi is no fool and presumably knows how to read FIPs himself. So I doubt Toronto would make that deal. Any trade with Happ in it would have to have a second centerpiece and that’s where I get off the train.
Well, I think there’s a good likelihood that he settles as something better than a “4/5.” Even the 4.40 FIP would be respectable, were that Happ’s ERA, and he strikes me as the sort of guy who’s probably likely to keep making adjustments and finding ways to improve.
But yeah, I’d deal him for Halladay pretty much without blinking, and (here’s where I differ from taco pal) I’d include a “second centerpiece” so long as it’s Taylor or Brown. But not both, and not Drabek.
I think, specifically, he might be able to raise his K rate with experience, which might get his FIP under 4.00 in future seasons. He always struck out a whole lotta guys in the minors, and I think his current K rate is below what the equivalencies would have predicted.
Based on some stuff L.A. has been saying on the radio, I gather that Dubee has been telling Happ to make a conscious effort to pitch to contact in order to lower his pitch counts. So that suggests to me that the ability to strike people out hasn’t gone away, although he’ll have to learn to do it more efficiently at some point in his career for it to mean anything.
I can believe that. He has a lot of deception in his delivery, and that plus the multiple pitches is usually enough to rack up a decent number of Ks. I think compared both to his stint with the team last year and the six weeks or so that he spent in the bullpen, both his strikeouts and walks are down.
How does his K rate now compare to his K rate in the minors?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 20, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: the “second centerpiece” discussion, I agree wholeheartedly, dajafi. I would certainly include Happ in a Halladay deal, but on the premise that it saved us from including Drabek. Happ, Taylor, Donald, and d’Arnaud (and maybe a bullpen piece or young projectable arm) — seems like a good deal for both sides to me, though maybe I’m just getting greedy from the Phillies’ end.
I had just asked in another thread how lucky was Happ – and it seems so far – pretty damn lucky
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 20, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions
Happ = Lucky >>>> Kendrick = Lucky
I don’t know what that means, but Happ is a better pitcher than Kendrick despite both starting off ridiculously lucky.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
Great piece.
It’s amusing how Happ has gone from long man to untouchable in the span of a few short months. I’ve always believed in Happ as a 4th/5th starter type, but he’s not a whole lot more — he’s not a substitute for Roy Halladay if an acceptable package including Happ is on the table, that’s for sure.
Anyway, as far as the piece goes, I think you’ve nailed it: Happ has been lucky so far, but he has more staying power than Kendrick did. A particularly good sign: in his last 5 starts (36 innings), although his strikeout numbers are modest (24 K, or 6.0 K/9), his walks are way, way down (5 BB, or 1.3 BB/9).
Trade Happ?
Unlike the mainstream media, which seem to be stressing that Happ is a serious contender for rookie of the year – singing his praises and saying how much giving up Happ will hurt – the consensus here seems to be that he’s “lucky” and destined for a career at the bottom of the rotation. Tough characterization for a guy who’s been the team’s most reliable pitcher ever since he went into the rotation. I say if we can get Halladay for him and a few other players, that’s great, but in the meantime let’s appreciate how well he’s doing. If some of you want to feel scared about Happ, that’s your business. Right now Happ’s starts have been arguably the best thing about this year’s rotation.
by phillyinportland on Jul 21, 2009 1:59 AM EDT reply actions
I don’t think there’s anyone here who hasn’t been very impressed by Happ and doesn’t truly appreciate his effort so far this year.
That’s good to hear. I’ve seen a lot of young prospects come through the Phillies system over the years and I don’t think there is a lot of evidence that can tell whether you’ve got a potential ace or a marginal starter – until the player performs for a season or two. Here’s two examples off the top of my head: Bruce Ruffin comes up in mid-1986 and proceeds to go 9-4, 2.46 ERA. There was talk about how he might replace Steve Carlton as the ace lefty. In today’s world he would probably have been worth a lot as a top prospect, but he never had much success after his rookie year. Another highly-touted prospect was Rick Wise, who first joined the Phillies as an 18-year-old in 1964, made the team to stay three years later, but was strictly marginal early in his career (in 1968, the Year of the Pitcher, his ERA was 4.55). It wasn’t until his 7th year that he put it together, threw his no-hitter and went on to fame as the guy traded for Steve Carlton. Maybe not an ace, but 188 career wins and a World Series win count for something.
One thing I really like about this team is how well the parts blend – and having youth, like Happ, is important on a team that is probably one of the oldest, top to bottom, in the game right now.
by phillyinportland on Jul 22, 2009 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
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