And do I make this trade with the Phillies running away with the NL East? Absolutely. Sure, the Phillies can win the NL East without Halladay. But can they win the World Series? That's the question people should be asking.
over 2 years ago
PhillyFriar
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That’s really disappointing to hear that from Zolecki, who I’ve always thought of as a pretty smart and open-minded guy.
PLAYOFF SERIES ARE CRAPSHOOTS!!!!!
The Phillies’ odds of winning in the postseason with Halladay are not that much higher than their odds of winning without him!!!!
you keep saying that
but i have a hard time finding any baseball expert who would agree with you.
http://poorsportsblog.blogspot.com/
if any sports expert would be versed in probability/percentages
it would be baseball experts.
http://poorsportsblog.blogspot.com/
I just quoted Rob Neyer and Keith Law in other threads earlier this week saying exactly what I said. I guess you didn’t read those threads very closely after all.
No see, they aren’t experts, they’re stat nerds
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 23, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet, they're not
With the exception of the non-mainstream folks like Neyer and Law, who, as TP notes, agree with him.
Yes, playoff series are crapshoots...
…but very few teams have won a World Series with a starting rotation as weak as ours is now. I realize this is unpopular on the heels of a 10-game win streak (especially given how the starting pitching has stepped up), but it’s true.
No, Halladay doesn’t guarantee anything, and there’s always the chance the current staff could all of a sudden catch fire in October, but I wouldn’t bet on it. To be honest, if we ran into a Wild Card series against the Giants right now, I’d be terrified — sure, their lineup sucks, but Lincecum and Cain could potentially win that series for San Fran by themselves. If we countered with Hamels and Halladay, how much better would our odds be?
First of all, it’s basically a myth that we have some sort of historically weak pitching staff. They had a horrible six weeks or so to begin the year, which I know you can’t just ignore, but it’s looking more and more flukish by the day – out of line both with what they’ve done since then and with their career histories. Fundamentally, the rotation is just about as good this year as it was last year. The bullpen has taken a hit because of Lidge’s problems, but it still isn’t bad.
Second, the reason why teams with bad pitching staffs rarely win the World Series is that teams with bad pitching staffs typically don’t make the playoffs. However, if you presuppose that a team with bad pitching has made the playoffs, then that means, almost by necessity, that that team must have excellent hitting. It’s a myth that pitching is more important than hitting. They are both equally important and a superior offense can carry you to a playoff victory just as easily as superior pitching can.
Basically, what I hear you saying is that you understand in your head that the playoffs are a crap shoot, but you’re going to let your visceral fears overwhelm what you logically know to be true. That’s a mistake.
You make a strong argument, and I don’t want to be the guy that buys into peanut gallery wisdom, so let me rephrase what I’m saying…
I don’t think the team is good enough right now, as a whole, to win another World Series.
Look, I realize the playoffs are a crapshoot, and that at all it takes is a hot stretch where you win 11 games — but the better your team is, the better chance you have in that crapshoot.
And I firmly disagree that this year’s pitching staff is about as good as last year’s. Sure, they’ve been much better lately, but you can’t just eliminate the first half of the year as bad luck. And think of it in terms of how a playoff rotation will stack up: Hamels and Moyer are pitching significantly worse than last year, Blanton about the same (maybe a touch better), and a rejuvenated Myers is nowhere to be found. Sure, J.A. Happ’s pitching great right now, but dajafi’s already pointed out why there’s little reason to expect him to be more than a #4 when all is said and done. Can you go to war in the playoffs with that pitching staff? Sure, because your offense is very, very good, as you noted — but if you’re going to rely on them to carry you through an entire playoffs because you’re struggling in the other facet of the game, well, I don’t think that’s exactly a recipe for success.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 24, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
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