Phillies Breakfast Links, July 22, 2009: Prowling for Aces, Pedro Martinez's Progress, Invoking Moneyball
Phils win 10th straight on Werth's walk-off
Phillies longest win streak since 1991.
Rich Hofmann: Phillies rely on senses in game of 'Moneyball'
"A lot of the things in 'Moneyball' are common sense," said Scott Proefrock, the Phillies' assistant general manager. "You're looking for things that are undervalued, that are underappreciated. That's simplified, and it's true that some of the metrics they use to determine value are not simple. But the concept is not rocket science. Everybody is always looking for an edge, looking for a way to gain an advantage. "Our way of trying to do that is with eyes," he said.
Phillies Notebook: Phillies downplay talk of Myers returning in August
Brett Myers, speaking out of turn? Never!
Suddenly, Phillies boast fertile farm system
Smart drafting will do that.
Pedro Martinez shows real progress in simulated game | Philadelphia Daily News | 07/22/2009
"I am going to take my time here and do what I have to do and get ready to be just like them," Martinez said after throwing 64 pitches in a four-inning simulated game. "I don't want to look any less than they are right now. They are a No. 1 team, they are defending champs, and I want to look like a champ out there. I don't want to look like a minor league pitcher or less than they are. I want to look like them and I want to be able to help them to continue to win."
I really want to give him a hug right now.
Jays' J.P. Ricciardi stacks the deck in trade game
Next thing you know, Ruben Amaro is going to visit "his old pal" Mike Arbuckle in Kansas City in light of a possible Gil Meche trade...
Cleveland Indians' Cliff Lee gets complete-game win over Toronto Blue Jays
The Indians reportedly haven't put Cliff Lee on the trade market, but with scouts from the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers and Red Sox in the stands Tuesday night at Rogers Centre, manager Eric Wedge certainly gave them a long look at last year's Cy Young winner. I like Cliff Lee as a fall-back plan, and to put a little pressure on the Blue Jays.
Morning Juice: Phillies' Werth bops gut-busting homer in 13th
With photo of Shane Victorino body blow to Jayson Werth.
Prospect Taylor inches closer to dream
This beautiful Michael Taylor piece can be yours, J.P. Ricciardi, IF the Price is Right!!!
Stephenie LaGrossa is Kyle Kendrick Girlfriend (Photos, Video)
Your "WTF?" link for today.
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29 comments
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Comments
Hoffman might be overstating the differences a bit between the Phillies’ approach and the “Moneyball” approach. The Phillies certainly aren’t what you would call a hardcore Moneyball team, but they do seem to value things like on-base ability, taking pitches, etc. They also do use some statistical analysis, albeit not exclusively. It’s not like it’s a binary issue – there’s a continuous spectrum between the two poles.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
My daily rant, condensed:
1. Playoff series are crapshoots.
2. Roy Halladay doesn’t increase our odds of winning playoff series that much.
3. We are fully capable of losing with Halladay and winning without him.
4. We have more than just a short window of opportunity to win.
Thanks, I’ll be here all month!
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
ok, i agree but
so what are your thoughts on the Holiday trade. Mine are hold on to our prospects for a year and see what develops.
I do overall agree with you. For what that is worth!
by DeanH on Jul 22, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’d be nice if the writers realize that trading for Halladay isn’t just about this season.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 22, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes. I still don’t think that would justify the price we’d likely have to pay for him right now, but at least it would be a rational argument.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
looking like it wont matter, of course the Jays are probably bluffing.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 22, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think I’ll pass on meche and his 4.50 ERA thanks.
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
by foos05 on Jul 22, 2009 10:19 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
and he’s on the dl right now… occupying one of the spots on my fantasy team along with wakefield and pedro
"I can play anywhere; First, Third, Left field, anywhere but Philadelphia." - Dick Allen
http://www.travismount.net
by tam5070 on Jul 22, 2009 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way, Peter Gammons was so, so awful in his commentary on Baseball Tonight last night. First, I thought he strongly implied that the Phillies should offer to trade Happ, Drabek, and Brown. Second, he strongly implied that the Phillies will win the 2009 and 2010 World Series if and only if they make the trade, but will have no chance if they don’t (though he used some weaselly language that would allow him to deny that implication if he had to). Third, he framed the whole issue as a question of whether the Phillies had the guts to “take the pain” they would need to feel to get the Halladay trade done. All done in his horribly pompous voice, attitude, etc.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And did he insert any kind of Red Sox or Cape Cod League reference? If not, I don’t believe you.
I’m more and more inclined not to make any system-gutting moves now. The only rub is Michael Taylor — his trade value could very well be at its peak as we speak. However, there’s a strong chance that one of our outfielders will miss significant time in the next season and a half… having Taylor as backup would be a pretty good idea, then slot him in in 2011 if he’s capable.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 22, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My grand master plan is to trade Ibanez in the offseason for a similar veteran at a position of greater need and start Taylor in left out of spring training. I realize there are some cons to that, though.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendrick
He learned a changeup and I was not informed of it? Hmmm… Maybe well see him some time soon (him and his HOT wife).
by philiafan14364 on Jul 22, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“But there never has been the electricity, top to bottom, every level, almost every position. There have never been enough diamond-quality prospects to make a Halladay a reasonable possibility.
“There’s as much excitement right now as there’s ever been in the system,” Callis said.
And trading a good chunk of that excitement away for a pitching rental could cripple them for years. * IN DAILY NEWS ARTICLE ABOVE.
Why, for 1 player, would we take the excitement out of our farm system. I know, I go back and forth on the trade but the more I consider it, the less desirable it is to me.
I think we should hold, try to upgrade our bullpen and bench (ie Blunlett) and do some minor trades w/ out giving away the system.
by DeanH on Jul 22, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well a counter argument would be, you better hope kyle drabek turns out to be one of the greatest pitchers of his generation then.
I thought there was no such thing as a pitching prospect?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 22, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don’t think in hind sight Drabek needs to turn out that way. My point in saying it is there is some worth w/ chemistry.
Now, if I was in the GM shoes, I think I would trade the farm system for Holiday IF I knew I could sign him long term. But, w/out that guarantee, I think there is major risk in literally giving away the farm for a 1.5 year rental.
Jemagee, would you do the trade no matter what it takes?
by DeanH on Jul 22, 2009 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I’m talking about trading for Roy Halladay, one of the greatest pitchers currently in the game and a guy who can contribute for at least the next season and a half and gives the phils time to make a decision on whether to extend.
I’m sorry – i’m not sure what ‘excitement’ in the farm system has to do with this mythological bull referred to as clubhouse chemistry and I’m not sure how adding one of the best pitchers in the game would be BAD for clubhouse chemistry.
I didn’t say do the trade at all costs – but all those folk who refuse to do the trade because Drabek would need to be included seems certain that he’s going to be an ace, and there’s no such certainties in baseball…you can project better Halladay over the next couple years than you can project Drabek at all.
THe refusal to give up Drabek in a Halladay deal seems based on the fact that after one minor league season (not even a full one) people are ready to anoint him a star pitcher in the major leagues – thus forgetting an important maxim about minor league pitchers.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 22, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Conversely, what you’re forgetting about Drabek is that whatever he does amount to, we’ll have exclusive control over him for six years at submarket salaries, including three years at negligible salaries. Therefore, if Drabek turns out to be an all-star caliber pitcher, his value will not only equal Halladay’s, but will far exceed it. Even if Drabek does not turn into an all-star caliber pitcher, his value may still equal Halladay’s.
Add to this the facts that (1) even Drabek will not be enough, by himself, to swing the trade in all likelihood, (2) Halladay’s value for the first 0.5 of the 1.5 seasons left on his contract is greatly diminished by the fact that we’re almost certainly going to make the playoffs this year anyway, and (3) the market for pitching help for 2010 will probably be much more reasonable in the 2010 offseason than at the 2009 trading deadline — and you have a pretty strong case for refusing to include Drabek in a trade, TINSTAAPP or no TINSTAAPP.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope – haven’t forgotten about the six years of drabek – just dn’t believe there’s any ‘guarantee’ that he’s going to be good – let alone a great – major league pitcher as many here seem to be – like it gives them death visions to consider trading kyle drabek for one of the best pitchers NOW in the game.
I personally don’t care one way or the other, adding halladay would be fine, not adding him would be fine…again – you claim you only want to talk about what is ‘known’ – and yet here there are so many assuming that drabek is going to be something great in the majors when history and the numbers are against him.
Drabek has been labelled as ‘untouchable’ by fans and reportedly the phillies – and that’s an asinine statement when talking about when of the best pitchers in the game right now…you don’t make any player untouchable because you have no guarantee what they’ll become.
Of cours since you only deal in objective facts, I’m guessing you already know what drabek will become, so that’s good to know
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 22, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to have a problem with reading comprehension. We can circle back and have this discussion after you re-read and understand what I said, but not before.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(3) the market for pitching help for 2010 will probably be much more reasonable in the 2010 offseason than at the 2009 trading deadline
Please stick to purely objective statements with out any subjective guessing…thank you
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 22, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose you’re referring back to that other thread. I see you still don’t understand what I said there. You also don’t seem to understand what the words “objective” and “subjective” mean. But apart from that, you’re making some really valuable contributions to this discussion.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The farm system article was penned by Marcus Hayes, which is sufficient to explain its dumb ending and various other flaws. Consult jonk, a/k/a SaberBoy, for more details.
by dajafi on Jul 22, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Streak
What do you all think about the 10 game win streak? I’m in favor.
by BigPhillyStyle on Jul 22, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally, I totally remember that 1991 streak. Actually, I don’t remember any of the wins but I know it came to an end in Pittsburgh when they had the Bonds-Bonilla-Drabek powerhouse. Phils were losing late but had the bases loaded with one out. Ricky Jordan came up as a PH, but the ball ticked his bat on either a pitch he was trying to get out of the way of or a check swing, and rolled right to the pitcher for a 1-2-3. Weird what you remember from your childhood.
by taco pal on Jul 22, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was at game 11ish
I’m not 100% sure it was number 11, but I think it was. I’ll have to go check on retrosheet. Even though that season was a waste, the electricity during the streak was pretty awesome.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 22, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Happy to see Bako and Dobbs starting today… this should go well
"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel
by foos05 on Jul 22, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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