Is Tommy Hanson for reals?

by jonk on Jul 23, 2009 3:37 PM EDT

Seriously, the dude is 5-0 and people get the chills when they talk about him, but his numbers look kinda bleh to me.

48 IP 38 H 5 HR 36 K 23 BB

Color me unimpressed. Am I missing something here?

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I would take Happ over him any day right now.

Although Hanson did have like 11 strikeouts the other day I think.

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by dolphin341 on Jul 23, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

His minor league stats numbers are pretty impressive. People may be getting excited for the wrong reasons, but he really is a very good young talent.

by taco pal on Jul 23, 2009 4:09 PM EDT reply actions

Same reason they are getting excited by happ – won loss numbers :)

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 23, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

happ

no one is excited about happ .. if the jays asked for happ and not drabek halladay would be a phillie

by jack is better than asante on Jul 23, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

The numbers and the scouting reports from the Arizona Fall League last year were off-the-charts awesome, too. He’s as legit as any prospect, really, if you strip away the hype. If he can bring the walk numbers down and stay healthy, there’s no reason he can’t be a top-of-the-rotation guy.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 23, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

What he said.

I get as frustrated as anyone when rival prospects get overhyped, but Hanson’s the real deal. Just chalk his not-overly-impressive early numbers up to adjusting to major league hitters (much like David Price).

Watching him honestly frustrates me that the Padres weren’t able to get a Peavy-to-the-Braves deal done this offseason — even if they only got one of Hanson or Heyward, it would be 6 less years of misery for us inflicted by those guys.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 24, 2009 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Braves guy here, don't break out the torches and pitchforks...

Hanson and Heyward are as untouchable as players can get. Neither of the two would have been included in a Peavy deal, and looking back on it I am glad we didn’t do it considering his injury concerns this year.

by BullManUGA on Jul 25, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Right now I would still take Happ over Hanson.

My opinion might change in the future, but right now, I’m taking Happ, even with all of the hype surrounding Hanson.

My Miami Dolphins webpage is www.playoffboundsports.com Come on over and join the discussion.

by dolphin341 on Jul 23, 2009 8:25 PM EDT reply actions

happ

happ at best is a 3 i said .. but he could be kyle kendrick .. he is by no means tommy hanson .. a future ace

by jack is better than asante on Jul 24, 2009 1:17 AM EDT reply actions

Curious

If you have actually watched him pitch at all, or if you are simply pulling up the numbers and dismissing him after a grand total of 48IP at the major league level.

by fphjr01 on Jul 24, 2009 8:41 AM EDT reply actions

Did I write anything dismissive? I said I was unimpressed by his peripherals thus far and it is undeniably true that his BB/Ks/HRs are average at best. Then I asked if I was missing something, which completely points to me wanting to know MORE about him and that I don’t just dismiss him.

I am curious if you read more than just 7 words of my 30 word post.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 24, 2009 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Let's start over

Your Philly colleagues above have probably answered the question, but I just wanted to cover some info for you in case that’s not enough. Minor league #’s:

A: 11.1 k/9, 3.45 k/bb,0.74 hr/9
A+: 10.2 k/9, 2.63 k/bb, 0.9 hr/9
AA: 10.5 k/9, 2.78 k/bb, 0.83 hr/9
AAA: 12.2 k/9, 5.29 k/bb, 0.68 hr/9

From my point of view, that’s pretty dominating, improving his numbers as he progressed from every level. He’s 22 now, and turns 23 in August. Fangraphs didn’t have his AFL #‘s, so you’ll have to take WholeCamel’s opinion that they were similarly off the charts.

As for his major league #‘s, I think the sample size is too small to make any conclusions yet. All I’ll say is that 3 of his 5 HR’s came in his first major league start — he’s given up 2 in 42IP since. He also had a nice streak of 0 runs allowed (earned or otherwise) over 23+IP spanning 4 games, two of which were against the BoSox and Yankees. No doubt the walks are high and the K rate is about half his career minor league average. Not sure what he would be at using a projection system, but I would bet its higher than the ~6 k/9 he’s average thus far.

Hanson is a 4 pitch pitcher. He has a mid 90’s fastball with movement, a mid 80’s slider, a 12-6 curveball, and is developing a changeup, which currently has a 10mph difference from the fastball from the same arm slot. The FB and CB are rated as 70 from the reports I could find, the slider has been compared to Smoltz’s, and as mentioned the changeup is about average, but he’s working on it.

Check him out if you get a chance — if we’re lucky the Phils will draw him in all of the 3 final series this year, and see what your eyes tell you.

Just for fun, I’ll copy a similar set of stats from another pitcher in the division and see whether the numbers reflect how impressive this pitcher turned out to be:

2001 — 15 appearances, 4 starts

43.2 IP, 50 H, 6 HR, 28 K, 16 BB

by fphjr01 on Jul 24, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Shut up and go away.

Nah, just kidding. Thanks for engaging in constructive dialogue, which we all appreciate. A couple of points…

Hanson’s AFL numbers: 15.4 K/9, 2.19 K/9, 0.31 HR/9. And that’s in a league where hitters always rule the day. Let’s just say I’d rather not draw him in all three of our finals series this year.

I’ll only nitpick two things. First: I hate when people make crazy comparisons, like comparing someone’s slider to Smoltz’s or someone’s plate discipline to Barry Bonds’. It may be a damn good slider, but if his third best pitch is really that similar to one of the better pitches of all time, then the rest of baseball may as well forfeit every game that Hanson starts for the rest of his career. I know it wasn’t you making that comparison, but just saying.

Second: I looked it up to make sure, but I knew those had to be Johan Santana’s numbers. It’s a similar point here: you make a good point here, i.e. that you can’t judge a pitcher on a small sample size in his first big league action, but if there’s an implication that Hanson will soon be the best pitcher in baseball, then it’s a bit heavy-handed. Once again, I’m not saying that you’re implying that, but it’s just a pet peeve of mine when someone goes, “Well, Wilmer Flores isn’t putting up awesome numbers, but look what Hanley Ramirez did in the minors!” I’m anal, I know.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 24, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Saw him pitch on TV the other night

The kid is for reals. I think his numbers are the numbers of a young guy just up to the majors, but his stuff is silly. A couple of his breaking pitches that I was watching looked like video game pitches they moved so much.

It’s always a crapshoot how these guys turn out, but Hanson SHOULD be a top of the rotation guy for a long time.

"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark

by Chris Haines on Jul 24, 2009 8:46 AM EDT reply actions

my best friend

my best friend is a braves fan .. and hes been talkin about hanson for 2 years now .. he is for real .. the next randy johnson perhaps .. hes big and dominating .. if tou suggest happ .. who is an average mlb pitcher is worth having over a phenom .. thats why i said it was dumb .. ive seen the kid pitch like 3 times already and hes impressive

by jack is better than asante on Jul 24, 2009 7:38 PM EDT reply actions

my best friend is a braves fan .. and hes been talkin about hanson for 2 years now .. he is for real

Do you seriously just say that?

by FredEx on Jul 24, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

what

its true,.. hanson is a phenom .. kinda like nats fans will be talkin now

by jack is better than asante on Jul 24, 2009 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

Well, if JIBTA's friend said so

Good enough for me.

by phatj on Jul 24, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions

haha

along with baseball america ..and espn .. and every other baseball scouting orginazation

by jack is better than asante on Jul 24, 2009 11:47 PM EDT reply actions

The difference between Hanson now and 2 months ago was:

When came up to the bigs, he was just a thrower. He, like many talented 22 year old pitchers would do, thought his stuff was so good he could throw it wherever he wanted to get a guy out. Sure that works at AAA ball, but not in the majors.

Now, Hanson is truly a pitcher. He just destroys that outside corner (see his last start against the Giants) and knows on an 0-2 pitch, you dont throw a 95mph pitch down the middle of the plate to see if they hit it; you throw it at the hitters eyes to get him to chase. He sets hitters up.

And while his numbers aren’t that impressive, he did have 3 of his 5 HRs givin up in his first start. Also, about 15 of those walks came in his first 3 or 4 starts. He’s really improved his location since then.

I understand how you can be a bit underwhelmed if you look at his stat line, but if you watch him start-by-start, you really see why he was so hyped and why he projects as a #1 starter for a long time.

Just my 2 cents from a Braves fan..

7/24/2009 - "The Phillies are too far ahead in the NL East for the Braves to make a run." - Buster Olney

REMEMBER THAT BOYS.

by Scott Coleman on Jul 25, 2009 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

We'll see

I find it hard to believe that Tommy Hanson can go from “thrower” to “pitcher” in two months in the majors. Consider that it took Randy Johnson, probably one of the 2-3 best lefties ever, five years or so to really figure it out.

by phatj on Jul 25, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Randy Johnson....

….isn’t exactly a rocket scientist.

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti

by sddbaker on Jul 26, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Whereas Tommy Hanson is, I suppose.

by phatj on Jul 27, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Probably more in the vicinity than RJ, at least….

by sddbaker on Jul 27, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Do you have any kind of evidence to base this on? IQ Tests, college transcripts, wunderlic tests?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 28, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Or evidence that it actually matters

How high does your IQ have to be? Baseball players, as a group, aren’t necessarily the brightest folks, and I’m not aware that there’s any particular difference in intelligence between scrubs and stars.

by phatj on Jul 28, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions