Phillies and Halladay Twits!
by jonk on Jul 24, 2009 4:05 PM EDT
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Post em if you got them, even if they seem crazy or insane!
"MLBXM & MLBNetwork are reporting Phillies are close to deal for Cy Young pitcher Roy Halladay. Announcement could come within 24 hrs #MLB"
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I’m excited now. I wonder what the deal would be?
"They say that nobody is perfect. Then they tell you practice makes perfect. I wish they'd make up their minds." - Wilt Chamberlain
Drabek, Brown, Donald, and Marson. Thats what i think the deal will be.
by asmallvictory31 on Jul 24, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions
johnathan mayo twitter
“Easy does it, Phillies/Jays fans. I’m hearing Halladay to Philly nowhere near being done.”
gah
I’ve never been less enthusiastic about this potential trade than I am right now.
Suffice it to say that if you have Buster Olney, Peter Gammons, and Angelo Cataldi saying one thing, and Rob Neyer and Keith Law saying another thing, the latter thing is probably a lot closer to the mark.
I don’t believe much of what comes out of Keith Law’s mouth. I think Olney and Gammons have some credibility. Cataldi OTOH, not so much.
I’m talking about their analysis, not their reporting. I don’t always agree with Law’s analysis, but sometimes he makes good points.
Didn’t Law’s analysis essentially say the Phillies didn’t have much by way of prospects in order to land Halladay? He downplayed Taylor and Drabek quite a bit in the piece I read.
To be more precise, what Neyer said is that a trade might be worthwhile if they’re acquiring him for next season – but not if they want him for this season.
While I agree with that in theory, I think that premise would logically make it very difficult to negotiate a worthwhile trade now. The price right now will be all out of proportion with the benefits.
He isn’t the only one.
I trust guys like law and crasnick over gammons and stark – freaking gammons says OPS in almost every other sentence – it’s like the only thing he looks at now – he’s probably even sa bit senile.
What a shocker that fans over value the prospects and anyone who say otherwise is seen as ‘uninformed’ – keith law has seen the phillies prospects he comments on much more than you have – and if he hasn’t – he doesn’t comment on them
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 24, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
There are some fans who overvalue prospects. There are also a great many fans who undervalue them. I can’t even count how many times in recent days that I’ve read or heard fans comparing every one of the Phillies’ top prospects to Kyle Kendrick. (As in, “Why are we so afraid to trade Prospect X when prospects turn out to be nothing all that time, just look at Kyle Kendrick?”)
That’s pretty stupid as well – I’ve read keith law a lot (unsurprising I’m sure that I find him hysterical as well) and he often states that he only makes comments on guys he actually sees in person – his comments about drabek and his arm motion stuff is based on seeing him pitch in person…he’s a guy whose opinion i value on a prospect hella more than a guy like gammons who i doubt sees much minor league ball unless it’s red sox related
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 24, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I can certainly agree that Law’s opinion > Gammons’ opinion. Whether I agree with Law’s opinion on Drabek and Taylor, I’m not sure. For instance, I also value John Sickels’ opinion, and he’s high on both of those guys. I also think Baseball America’s opinions are usually sane, at least, and they also like those guys. But that’s fine – evaluating prospects is difficult work and one should always expect a range of opinions from good analysts.
What’s interesting here is that even though Law doesn’t think that highly of Drabek and Taylor, he also thinks it won’t be worth it for the Phillies to pay the price the Jays will demand for Halladay.
As for Gammons, if he has any opinion at all about how good Drabek or Taylor are as prospects, I’ve yet to hear it. He just thinks the Phillies should trade them if Toronto wants them, while simultaneously not seeming to care whether or not they’re any good.
Agreed
Not sure how much to believe Olney (and KNOW not to trust Cataldi) but Gammons has pretty good cache in the field. Still could be wrong, but I’d take him over Law and Neyer at least.
Again, just to clarify, I’m talking about their analysis of the merits of a potential trade. Gammons may be a good reporter, but his recommendations are generally worthless.
Sorry…typed that THEN saw your comment. Kinda meh on all the above, then, though I’d trust Law on analysis before the rest.
john heyman
#phillies are trying hard for #halladay. with drabek or happ & others to deal, i’ll be surprised if they don’t get him.
Danny Knobler
Phils still look most likely for Halladay, and deal could well happen. But doesn’t sound like it’s that close to actually being done.
a closer look at Happ
I still agree with dajafi’s conclusion the other day that Happ’s been lucky this year and isn’t as good as he’s looked (though he’s stil pretty good and much better than Kyle Kendrick). I also still think that if we have to make a trade from Halladay, Happ’s the guy we should be most willing to part with if it means we can keep the others.
But I think it should be noted that in his last five starts (beginning with the shutout in Toronto), Happ’s legitimately been excellent. Nearly a 5-1 K/BB ratio, and only 3 HRs in 37 IP. He’s probably still been a little bit lucky because his ERA is just so low over that stretch (1.46). But even a “legit” ERA over that small sample would have to pretty impressive.
and I know its way too simple to think about it like this, but having happ AND roy in the rotation gives us a lot better chance to win than having roy and moyer. and the window is shutting. 2011 is coming quickly. I think we just have to go for it.
No No No! The window will only close if we concede that it’s going to close! Obviously, if you trade Drabek, Brown, and Taylor, then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the window will close. But if we don’t, we have the potential to stay contenders on a continuous basis indefinitely, just like the Red Sox (who are constantly reloading with youngsters like the Pedroias and Ellsburys and Buchholzes even while they’re still contending for titles).
I know the Red Sox are richer and smarter than the Phillies, but the margin isn’t enormous, and we can emulate them to some degree if we play our cards right.
linked on mlbtraderumors
http://kengurnick.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/07/colletti_on_halladay.html
The price in players for Toronto ace Roy Halladay is “two or three players off our current club, including a young pitcher, or five or six prospects,” Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti told KABC Radio Friday morning. Colletti wouldn’t mention names, but presumably the young pitcher is either Clayton Kershaw or Chad Billingsley or Jonathan Broxton.
That sounds like an absurd amount, but the Blue Jays are only asking for that because the Dodgers don’t have a prospect as good as Drabek, Taylor, or Brown. There’s no way the Dodgers get Halladay unless they surrender Kershaw, and that’s just not going to happen.
Kershaw is under control for how many more years?
Yes the dodgers don’t have as many good ‘prospects’ as the phillies because they’re already in the majors but mostly under 3 years i think
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 24, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Philadelphia Inquirer
Looks as though the offer is in.
Halladay for J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown. Now it’s just a matter if and when the Phillies accept.
by Matt Buggenhagen on Jul 24, 2009 7:42 PM EDT reply actions
and
It’s not a matter of whether the Phillies accept, this is all posturing still.
THe final deal, if it happens, might look like that, but I doubt it.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 24, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions
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