Rotation on a Roll
While the Phillies remain in the mix for every starting pitcher on the trade market, the guys currently starting games for the club have put together a tremendous stretch over the last three-plus weeks. Joe Blanton has led the way, going at least seven innings in four straight starts while allowing a total of four runs, but each of the five starters has been mostly effective and occasionally dominant through the team’s current 18-3 stretch.
Here's the performance of each current starter over the last 21 games:
Joe Blanton: 3-0, 1.21, 29.2 IP, 4 ER, 20 H, 5 BB, 22 K, 2 HR
Rodrigo Lopez: 3-0, 3.09, 23.1 IP, 8 ER, 26 H, 6 BB, 15 K, 2 HR
Jamie Moyer: 4-1, 3.30, 30 IP, 11 ER, 27 H, 10 BB, 15 K, 2 HR
Cole Hamels: 2-0, 3.60, 25.0 IP, 10 ER, 18 H, 3 BB, 19 K, 6 HR
J.A. Happ: 2-1, 3.00, 27 IP, 25 H, 9 ER, 3 BB, 21 K, 2 HR
As TGP Blogger Emeritus MattS noted on a few occasions, Blanton is inexplicably blossoming this season: his strikeout rate is up, but there’s no clear explanation why. Still, he's been so good for more than two months now that it doesn't seem a stretch to believe that he'll stay close to this level--if not quite at the absolute dominance he's shown in July--for the balance of the season. Cole Hamels’ peripherals, on the other hand, continue to run ahead of his results: the six home runs he’s allowed over his last four starts might be bad luck, or unwise pitch selection. (Subjectively, it’s seemed to me that Hamels has made far more mistakes with two strikes this season than he did in 2008.) Happ’s situational excellence/luck is a subject we’ve covered before—and it got away from him a bit in his last start against the Cardinals--but it was his addition to the rotation in late May that began this staff turnaround. For a guy who’s almost always in the strike zone, two home runs allowed in 27 innings is probably good fortune; three walks over the same stretch is simply good work.
Below the jump, see the whole run, start by start:
Date/Opp Starter Pitching Line Result Decision (W-L) 7/3, vs. Mets Lopez 6.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, BB, 4 K, 0 HR W, 7-2 W (1-0) 7/4, vs. Mets Moyer 6.1 IP, 5 H, ER, BB, K, 0 HR W, 4-1 W (7-6) 7/5, vs. Mets Blanton 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HR W, 2-0 W (5-4) 7/6, vs. Reds Hamels 7 IP, 3 H, ER, 0 BB, 2 K, HR W, 22-1 W (5-5) 7/7, vs. Reds Happ 7 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR L, 3-4 ND (5-0) 7/8, vs. Reds Lopez* 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, BB, 4 K, 0 HR W, 3-2 ND (1-0) 7/9, vs. Reds Moyer 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, BB, 2 K, 2 HR W, 9-6 W (8-6) 7/10, vs. Pirates Blanton 7.1 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 6 K, HR W, 3-2 W (6-4) 7/11, vs. Pitt Hamels 6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 3 HR W, 8-7 ND (5-5) 7/12, vs. Pitt Happ 7 IP, 4 H, ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 0 HR W, 5-2 W (6-0) 7/16, @ Marlins Moyer 7 IP, H, 0 ER, BB, 4 K, 0 HR W, 4-0 W (9-6) 7/17, @Fla Hamels** 5 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 5 K, HR W, 6-5 (12) ND (5-5) 7/19, @Fla Happ 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, BB, 4 K, 0 HR W, 5-0 W (7-0) 7/20, vs. Cubs Lopez 6 IP, 5 H, ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 0 HR W, 10-1 W (2-0) 7/21, vs. Chi Blanton 7 IP, 5 H, ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR W, 4-1 (13) ND (6-4) 7/22, vs. Chi Moyer 5 IP, 8 H 4 ER (5R), 3 BB, 3 K, 0 HR L, 5-10 L (9-7) 7/23, vs. Padres Hamels 7 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, HR W, 9-4 W (6-5) 7/24, vs. Cardinals Happ 6 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 0 HR L, 1-8 L (7-1) 7/25, vs. StL Lopez 6 IP, 10 H, 3 ER (4R), BB, 2 K, 2 HR W, 14-6 W (3-0) 7/26, vs. StL Blanton 8 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, BB, 6 K, HR W, 9-2 W (7-4) 7/27, @Ari Moyer 6.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 0 ER W, 6-2 W (10-7) TOTALS 134 IP, 42 ER (2.82 ERA), 117 H, 27 BB (1.07 WHIP, 92 K, 14 HR, 16 QS 18-3 14-2, 5 ND
*left game early with shoulder tightness
**left after lengthy rain delay
What should we take from all this?
Admittedly, the Phillies’ opponents over the last twenty games have mostly featured among the weaker offenses in the National League: the Mets are 10th of the 16 teams in runs scored, the Reds 14th, Pittsburgh 13th, the Marlins 6th, the Cubs 12th, the Padres 16th, the Cardinals 5th. (These rankings are somewhat misleading, in that the Cubs are only now fully healthy—and the Mets are, if anything, a worse offense than the number suggests, as it includes work from when their lineup included Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado.) That Moyer got knocked around by the Reds and Cubs suggests again that he might be more worthy of displacement from the rotation than Rodrigo Lopez—unless the Marlins are on the schedule, of course. Even Monday night's impressive feats of escapism against a solid Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 7th in the league raised almost as many question as answers: likely some of the seven runners Moyer stranded by using his wiles against Arizona's hitters would have scored against the Dodgers or Cardinals.
None of this is to argue against a trade for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or any other starter, nor to suggest that Pedro Martinez won’t be a helpful addition when he’s ready to join the active roster. But the last few weeks have seen a sustained stretch of rotation work that can proudly stand alongside the performances of September/October 2008. Here's perhaps the best way to think about it: while Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ are a decent front three starters in a playoff series, Roy Halladay, Hamels and Blanton rise to the level of excellence you'd really prefer to see for a team with realistic championship aspirations.
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As far as reflecting on the past, I think the Phillies should be ecstatic about the way they have been able to bring in 4th/5th starters and have them be successful. Happ, Carpenter, Bastardo, Lopez have all done a fine job of giving the team some nice pitching that was not really expected of them. It reflects well on the coaches/minor league signings etc. for the Phillies, which is great!
by Whack8888 on Jul 28, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, I certainly agree about Lopez. Happ I don’t think was regarded as a fill-in by the time he joined the rotation; they always figured he’d be in there sooner or later.
What’s giving me pause about any trade rumor below the level of Halladay and Lee is that I’m really not sure that Jarrod Washburn or Zach Duke or Justin Duchscherer or whoever is necessarily better than what we have on hand—the five guys who’ve been so good the last few weeks, plus Pedro, plus the prospects like Carpenter or Carrasco who could step in and be at least adequate.
If the division lead was two games rather than seven, sure. But at this point, to me, it only makes sense to go get someone who clearly gives them a better chance to beat a good team in the playoffs.
by dajafi on Jul 28, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don’t forget Pedro
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 28, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't
…the five guys who’ve been so good the last few weeks, plus Pedro, plus the prospects…
Though I am having a bit of a problem figuring out who he should replace. With Lidge’s season-long performance and Madson’s recent shaky work, I’m not sure we wouldn’t be better off trying Pedro in a short relief role.
by dajafi on Jul 28, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I assumed he’d just replace Rodrigo Lopez at the end of the rotation and either he’s better or you bring back Lopez after a coupled failed pedro starts, they have some luxury right now of tinkering.
Does anyone know if Pedro would be amiable to bull pen work?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amenable? I thought he indicated he would be, at his press conference.
Problem is you can’t send Lopez down to the minors. Though I suppose you could stash him in the pen for a spell while Durbin takes an extended vacation.
by taco pal on Jul 28, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The phillies bullpen has ‘dispensable’ parts – make up a injury for madson and give him 2 weeks off :)
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 28, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha
I actually fully expect to see a lot of bull pen guys going to the DL in august and early september if the Phillies lead in the NL east (not to mention wild card) holds up. It makes a lot of sense to have Kendrick, Walker, Carpenter pitch, giving them experience in case they are actually needed play off time and giving the main guys rest so they are better play off time.
by Whack8888 on Jul 28, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By september you don’t need the dl – you’ve got an expanded roster (a nonsensical thing i’ve never understood) s the phils have 15 more roster spaces to play with
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 28, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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It’s possible that the Phils will trade for a reliever—they’ve been rumored in on Qualls and Sherrill to name two.
Myers might be back at some point. And Scott Mathieson evidently still has that mid/high-90s gas despite two Tommy John surgeries—he’s pitching well at high-A.
This is a nice problem to have, even before you consider that the timing and the big lead has allowed them to manage injuries to Romero, Condrey, Durbin et al while taking a low-risk look at what other guys in the system can do.
by dajafi on Jul 28, 2009 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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