Phillies Breakfast Links, July 30, 2009: Cliff Lee, Cliff Lee, and oh... Cliff Lee.
by WholeCamels on Jul 30, 2009 8:08 AM EDT
64 comments
Cliff Lee in a hurry to join Phillies
Cliff Lee's possible Saturday start versus fellow reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, the FOX Saturday Game of the Week, is a must-see event the likes of which regular season baseball has not seen in years.
Bill Conlin: Phillies GM Amaro pulls off masterful move to land Lee
Of course Conlin likes the trade, they got to keep Michael Taylor!
Jim Salisbury: In Lee, Phillies get the next best pitcher
I'm sick of this "consolation prize"/"second best" crap. They got a terrific pitcher and kept their top prospects. The "scare factor" junk with Halladay is flatout idiotic.
Halladay isn't going anywhere
So... what about Roy Halladay?
Three 'Pigs will get a new home
Farewell to IronPigs Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, and Lou Marson.
For Cleveland Indians fans, Cliff Lee trade makes it harder to believe
Cleveland sports columnist wonders if Tribe fans should even bother.
Mets and NL Should Breath a Sigh of Relief
Only a Mets journalist/fan could spin their archrival picking up the reigning Cy Young Award as a "win" for his team.
Rob Oller commentary: This trade is unpleasantly familiar
An Ohio journalist laments the Indians' inability to hold onto their stars.
With Lee, Phils are halfway there
Don McKee argues that the bullpen still needs to be fixed. Well, the bullpen isn't as bad as much as they need to remove certain people from certain "roles" for awhile.
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Conflicted
Howard Eskin thinks the Lee trade was horrible and Conlin thinks it was a masterstroke.
head explodes
by phatj on Jul 30, 2009 8:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ha
Well-played, sir, well-played.
I don’t actually shut Eskin off immediately when he talks about the Eagles — he can at least carry on a conversation about the Birds, even if I don’t necessarily agree with all that he’s saying — but he’s an idiot when it comes to the Phils.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 30, 2009 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem is Eskin has biases that control his thought.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Jul 30, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It isn’t so much bias as it is cynicism. I don’t think he really believes anything, he just gives the opinions that he thinks fit his “character.” He’s no different than Cataldi in that regard, they just play different characters.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howard Eskin is a bonehead who never thinks he's wrong
I remember that guy saying there was 0% chance we sign asante samuel. After hearing him be wrong all the time not to mention the way he treats his callers with a different opinion, I wouldnt even consider what his opinion is on the trade.
by andyb on Jul 30, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some things never change.
I went to an Eagles-Broncos game in September of 1992. My father’s friend invited us, and the dude was connected. We sat in the only enclosed box in the Vet. (My first “proper” Eagles game experience came a few years later, but that’s another story.)
At the end of the game (a 30-0 win for the Birds) my father’s friend took us to the parking lot by way of the Phillies offices. We rode down the elevator with Howard Eskin and some other guy, who were talking about the Phillies.
Other guy: “I don’t know, people are saying that if the team stays healthy, they could make some noise this year. What do you think?”
Howard Eskin: “No. Absolutely not. They’re horrible.”
Of course, they were discussing the upcoming 1993 season.
NB to Howard Eskin: Ya know WHUT? Yer a MO-ron!
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Jul 30, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howard Eskin = Douchelord
Why is it that idiots like Eskin and Steve Phillips still have jobs and are still alive while good guys like Bob Murphy and Harry K are dead? If anyone has the answer to this mystery, please indulge me.
Oh and in regards to Conlin, who would win in a sumo match, him or Livan? I’d bet though that Mo Vaughn wins by outside interference.
I don't need no instructions to know how to rock!
by R_Adragna on Jul 30, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cliff v Lincecum - match of the ages?
I don’t know. Cliff Lee v CC Sabathia on opening day in new Yankee stadium has it beat, imo.
by Toxicadam on Jul 30, 2009 9:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I actually read Conlin's article...
…and yikes.
He questioned whether, had he not been dealt, the Phillies would have protected Carrasco from the Rule 5 draft. Umm, we’re protecting Joel Naughton right now, so I think we can make room, Bill.
Then he advocates trading J.A. Happ for… Jon Garland? Seriously? Have you ever watched a baseball game before, Bill?
by PhillyFriar on Jul 30, 2009 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Both of those were serious head-scratchers. Were Amaro to trade Happ, a minimum-salary pitcher having an excellent season, for a way overpaid mediocrity like Garland, he’d piss away most of the goodwill he’s generated through the trade yesterday. And no GM worth his salt would let a talent like Carrasco just walk; it’s almost certain he would have been the first Rule 5 pick.
by dajafi on Jul 30, 2009 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
80% Not Insane ain’t bad, though (for a Conlin column).
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was hoping they’d push back the debut to Sunday (sinice I’d see that game on TBS) but I gotta think that most of America is going to get the same crappy game I get this Saturday – Dodgers/Braves?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They are reporting they changed the national game to the Giants/Phillies
by Clyde Simmons on Jul 30, 2009 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OH that would be so nice, but I still think that since I’m considered the “LA Market” – i’ll get the dodgers game – regionality and all that silliness…i’ll keep an eye on my guide.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m wondering that too. Usually we’d get a Dodger or Angel game. But since SF is west coast…
by The R on Jul 30, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but if you’re in the ‘dodger’ tv market you’re stuck.
The worst is the NFL – being in santa barbara and no team in LA i get stuck with SF/Raiders/Chargers/Rams (cause they still have a fan base in LA) like every weekend – it’s pathetic.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Lee and I think this was the best move, but Silva does have a decent point about the difference between Halladay and Lee. However, I think we’ll see the difference in 2+ years from now. Lee and Halladay are likely to perform as well as each other over the next 2 years, but then Halladay will probably continue to be a good pitcher while Lee regresses to average.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Jul 30, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
At which time Lee is probably gone, we get two draft picks, and Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown, and Kyle Drabek are still very cheaply under the Phillies’ control…
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 30, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deriding the Lee trade makes sense though if, like Angelo Cataldi, Marcus Hayes, or Howard Eskin, you believe that “prospects are just that – prospects” and therefore should be treated as if they have essentially zero value to your organization. To people like that, prospects are just monopoly money that other organizations are sometimes dumb enough to believe to be real money.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Skip Bayless needs to have a talk with his brother who is obviously much more talented at his chosen profession than the dunderheaded blowhard skip.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Mets fan/blogger who thinks Lee is no big deal
is generally a good guy but has no knowledge of statistics, even basic ones. He’s a talk-radio style blogger, usually going off on the Mets’ lack of edge, leadership, grission, etc. or how the Yankees need to put Joba Chamberlain into the bullpen. Pay it no mind.
by James Kannengieser on Jul 30, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The “You failed because you didn’t get Halladay” opinion seems to be a common (if not majority) opinion among the Philly sports journalist types as well.
It’s partly borne of “LOOK AT ME I’M AN ATTENTION WHORE!”-ism and also the complete inability of some to defer gratification; their hearts were set on Halladay.
Someone here, or on another board, said it well: We had our eyes on a Ferrari, and we got a Porche. Oh well! We still got a friggin’ Porche!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jul 30, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a great way of putting it
Could be worse – you could have a Ford Pinto (Oliver Perez)
by James Kannengieser on Jul 30, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe it was the 700 level – i read an excerpt in my news reader today
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To back up that point: Where does Lee rank among NL pitchers? Among NL East pitchers? Behind Lincecum and Haren but who else? And where does our 1-2 rank in the NL?
by phila on Jul 30, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NL East pitchers, I think hes behind J Johnson, Johan, Jurrjens (not kidding), Javy Vazquez, and Hamels. In the NL hes behind Billingsley, Cain, Carpenter, Webb and Peavy (obviously not this year though), Gallardo, hell even Wainrights to go along with the names you mentioned. Dont get me wrong, Lees a good pitcher, but I think were overrating him a little bit here.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 30, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, but I have to disagree there. Lee’s pitched too well over the past year and a half to chalk his success up to anything but substantial improvement. His peripherals (particularly BB% and a vastly improved GB%) have been fantastic. I mean, we’re talking about a guy who is 13th in baseball in FIP, and he’s having a “down” year compared to last year’s standards.
In the division, I think you can make an argument for Santana, Johnson, and Hamels, but that’s it. Lee may even be better than both Johnson and Hamels, but for the sake of argument, I’ll give you those two.
For the NL as a whole, I would add Lincecum, Haren, Carpenter, and both Webb and Peavy when healthy. Maybe a fully healthy Rich Harden as well, though I believe that species is endangered (if not extinct).
The point is: Lee is easily a Top 10 pitcher in the National League. He’s a true ace, and over the next 2 years, I’d stack his performance up against anyone not named Santana, Lincecum, or Haren.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 30, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m more in line with PhillyFriar. I think he’s a top 3 pitcher in the NL based on his past two years. I’d say he’s behind Lincecum and probably Haren, but I think it’s close. The question mark is his HR/FB rate. But I don’t think it’s quite right to say pitchers don’t control this at all. In terms of 1-2 combinations: I think a healthy Carpenter and Wainright is very close to Lee and Hamels but I think there’s a clear edge for them over both Lincecum/Cain and Billingsley/Kershaw right now.
by phila on Jul 30, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ferrari/Porche
Much better than the silly Mercedes/Volvo comparison in the Inky today.
by David S. Cohen on Jul 30, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not like we still can’t get the Ferrari. We are just keeping our parts to our Aston Martin so we can roll it out next year.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Jul 30, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A caller used to comparison to Missanelli yesterday
when Mikey Miss was distraught over Phils not getting Halladay…he made it seem like it was the end of the world. Would I have liked to get Halladay, of course. Am I happy with Cliff Lee, especially since we gave up considerably less for him, absolutely.
by Screen Name 20 on Jul 30, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saturday
What are the chances Cliff Lee will start Saturday??
by Ralford on Jul 30, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thought I heard last night that it would be Lee vs. Lincecum Saturday. What a matchup!
by dajafi on Jul 30, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Phillies website has Moyer and Hamels slotted back in for Saturday and Sunday. They had changed both to TBA before yesterday’s game. Lee on Tuesday?
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This whole argument is asinine.
I actually listened to Missanelli last night (my awful mistake) for about 3 minutes as he berated a caller for trying to talk about “value” of prospects and “size of contracts.” The caller concluded by saying Mikey Miss would obviously never be a baseball GM. Perhaps an unnecessarily obvious point to make.
In addition to all the points previously made that demonstrate that this was an excellent trade, I think it’s amusing how easily a World Series makes these talking heads forget about the regular season. How many sell outs did we have last year? People actually go to baseball games before October?
At the risk of being publicly stoned, I might go out on a limb and say winning the World Series isn’t everything. Yeah, its wonderful, and yes, I wouldn’t give back my walk home from the Bank up Broad Street last Oct 29 for anything, but hasn’t it been fun to watch all 162 games for a few years now? How do good teams stay good for long periods other than through solid farm systems? This seems so basic to me that it’s hardly worth commenting on. Let’s see what they all have to say about the 2008 WFC in 7 years if we are 10 games out of first.
by Steve J on Jul 30, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rhea Hughes vehemently demanded on today’s WIP morning show that the Phillies trade Drabek, Brown, etc. for Halladay. Cataldi, unbelievably, was actually the voice of reason and pointed out that that would be idiotic.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why would you subject yourself to WIP?
by phatj on Jul 30, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know what they say. Know the enemy and know yourself.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because it’s good to know what people are talking about so you can easily refute it later.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Jul 30, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interestingly, Ben Francisco isn’t Latin. I knew he was a US national, but figured he was second-generation or something.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ben Francisco isn’t Latin
Please relay this info to Bill Conlin before he asks Ben whether he plans to pick blueberries in Hammonton upon arrival in Philly.
by PhillyPhantastico on Jul 30, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trading more prospects for Halladay? Are you nuts?
I understand trading AAA players approaching their mid 20s now – especially if they have zero chance of playing on a regular basis in the next two years. But trading your best 2011-12 prospects for Halladay seems crazy.
by PhillyPhantastico on Jul 30, 2009 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Boy, is Phil Sheridan’s column a mess today. Far worse than Salisbury’s, in my view.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
"A trade that will be analyzed / second-guessed for years to come?"
What?!?!?
The Phillies got an excellent pitcher and a desparately-needed right-handed bat off the bench yesterday… essentially, for less than the Blue Jays were asking for just one guy. Even more so, the Phils kept their top prospects.
I don’t understand what everyone is complaining about. I really don’t. We needed a starter, a right-handed bat, and bullpen help. We got two of those yesterday, and we may get the third without having to trade anyone. (if Myers gets healthy, he can be in the bullpen, as can Happ if Martinez stays healthy.)
And, to reiterate, the law firm of Drabek, Brown, and Taylor remains intact.
No second-guessing here. Great job by Amaro.
As for the Jays, they obviously didn’t pay attention to the NHL this year (for shame, what with them being in Toronto and all). The Florida Panthers tried to do the same thing with their impending free agent stud defenseman, Jay Bouwmeester. They asked far too much from everyone who came calling.
And what happened on draft day? Calgary acquired Bouwmeester for a third-round draft pick and the rights to a guy they weren’t going to re-sign anyway (Jordan Leopold).
Unless Boston or LAnaheim have more prospects than they know what to do with, the Jays will probably meet a similar fate.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Jul 30, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aside from that paying attention to the NHL thing (which no one really should do, ever) that’s a pretty solid thinking there
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sickels on the trade
Quick Take on the Lee Trade: I like Knapp a lot, but he’ll need at least two more years of development time and will have to prove he can stay healthy. Carrasco could be really good, but his track record is so erratic it is hard to know when/if he’ll turn the potential into performance. Donald and Marson look like usable players but not stars to me. I don’t love the trade for Cleveland, but I don’t hate it. It all rides on if the two young pitchers develop.
I think that’s spot on. Take heart, Indians fans. You did alright.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed. In fact, if Francisco wasn’t included, you could argue Cleveland got the better of the deal.
I think a lot of people think this is a steal for the Phils since it didn’t include their very top prospects. What people seem to be forgetting is that the Phils system is very deep and the guys traded are still very good prospects.
On a side note, I still think Taylor is going to get moved. Taylor for Sherrill would be nice :)
by The R on Jul 30, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whoops, spoke too soon. Yahoo is reporting the Dodgers are going to get Sherrill. Which also means they are probably done with the Jays.
by The R on Jul 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like him too. I just don’t know where he’s going to play. Unless they are going to move Werth in the next year. I suppose he could replace Ibanez, but Taylor would be 25-26 by then, oldish for a rookie. And by that time you have to wonder where Brown will be. Still, a 2012 outfield of Victorino, Brown, and Taylor doesn’t sound all that bad.
by The R on Jul 30, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It will NEVER happen, give it up. With the age/contract the only way he doesn’t play out his contract with the Phillies would be if he retires or we DFA/relaease him.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 30, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the best argument against it happening is the fact that it would be a public relations hit. Age and contract do not, by themselves, make a still-productive player untradeable. They may mean that you have to take less in return, but that would be perfectly appropriate since you’d be giving the other team less.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would be fine with another Matt Smith and CJ Henry if it meant Taylor would be hitting behind Howard. However, I don’t think any other team would want a 38 year old OF who still has 23 mil and 2 years left on his contract. Teams would take productive players no question, but do you really think many people expect Ibanez to NOT diteriorate before his contracts over? Cuz I don’t, and since the Yankees won’t be there to bail us out this time, I highly doubt Ibanez is moveable.
by philiafan14364 on Jul 30, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, but that appraisal of yours is totally out of touch with reality. Even if Ibanez’s contract was so horribly out of line, which it isn’t, that would be an easily solvable problem – you either include some cash in the deal (both teams could still come out ahead considering that Ibanez’s replacement in Philadelphia wouldn’t even make a million per), or you trade Ibanez for someone similar in age and contract status who plays a different position. We’re not talking about $98 million like with Vernon Wells, where the number is so enormous that a negotiated compromise is impossible.
The only way that that wouldn’t be a potential workaround to that problem is if Ibanez declines so rapidly that he becomes actively detrimental on the field for whatever team he’s playing for. If that were to happen, we would just have to eat the money. But if you really expect that type of dropoff to happen, why would we then want to trade Taylor (or Werth, or Vic)? The rational course of action would be to keep all three of those guys and simply eat Ibanez’s salary by benching or cutting him.
by taco pal on Jul 30, 2009 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ibanez contract isn’t that big considering the numbers he puts up. He’s actually cheap. The only questions are his age and health. Assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t fall apart like Magglio, he’s consistently good for ~100 RBi. And 100 RBI guys are always in demand.
Still, he isn’t going to get dealt next year. They just signed him and he’s having a monster year. Which I why I’m wondering what they are going to do with Taylor. Especially now that they have Francisco.
by The R on Jul 30, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither of your solutions work. Teams will only want Raul if hes productive. But if hes still producing we have no reason pay someone to take him just so we can get Taylor in the lineup.
I dont think we could possibly move him for someone with similar age/contract without creating another problem. We dont need any everyday players for next year besides a catcher, and how many catchers do you know of that are 38 years old or so and are making big money while still producing? Since every team always needs pitching, that would be the most likely trade route. But since RPs dont make nearly as much as Ibanez, thats out of the question. So that leaves starters. But I dont see any starters that are in a similar contract/age situation that could help a major league team, do you?
by philiafan14364 on Jul 30, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TP’s point, if I may speak for him, is that Ibanez is likely to remain reasonably productive over the remainder of his contract, even if he’s unlikely to maintain this season’s pace. So at most the Phillies would have to eat a fraction of his contract to move him; this would be to their advantage (assuming Taylor can approximate his production) because they would save whatever they’re not paying Ibanez (less Taylor’s ML minimum salary).
by phatj on Jul 31, 2009 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d rather keep a high upside outfield prospect cause my faith in the long term success of the current troika isn’t huge plus as we’ve seen with Lidge, closers are just inconsistent…
here’s hopping sherrill turns back into who we thought he was in LA
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would appreciate if someone could answer a few questions. It has been decades since I lived in Philly. Who is Howard Eskin? I remember the name but nothing about him personally. Also could someone explain the rule 5 draft? Thanks
by fan since late 40's on Jul 30, 2009 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Click Here, it’ll explain it all.
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Jul 30, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
before of the internet smackdown
my boy Jemmy has spent many moons practicing it.
by jefu on Jul 30, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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