The Cliff Lee Effect: The Phillies Are Falling Apart

by David S. Cohen on Jul 31, 2009 10:17 AM EDT Comment 49 comments

Widely hailed as a coup for Ruben Amaro and the Phillies, it appears that the Cliff Lee trade is not having the effect anyone expected it to have. There are creeping concerns that the Phillies have gotten complacent now that they have the 2009 Cy Young Award winner on their roster.

And, there's good reason for these concerns. Just check out the statistics:

Win percentage: Before the Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies had a win percentage of almost .600 (.592 to be exact). Since the trade, the Phillies are on a historic pace to win 0 more games the rest of the season, as their win percentage is .000. That's worse than the Nationals!

Runs scored: Before the Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies led the NL in runs scored with 537. In fact, only two other teams in the league that uses the DH had scored more runs than the Phillies. The Phils were averaging a torrid 5.5 runs per game. But now, since the Cliff Lee trade, the team is averaging only 1 run per game. And since the trade, they've been outscored by every team in baseball other than the Pirates, Rays, and Blue Jays -- all teams that have played half the games the Phillies have!

RS/RA percentage: Before the Cliff Lee trade, the Phillies had the best run differential in all of baseball at +83. They scored 18% more runs than their opponents. However, since Lee became a Phillie, the Phillies have been decimated by their opponents. Opposing teams have scored 450% more runs than the Phillies have. It's as if the pitching staff was made up of all Adam Eatons and the hitters were all Endy Chavez.

Runs against: Cliff Lee was supposed to help the pitching. Yet, he's done just the opposite. Before the trade, the Phillies were giving up 4.6 runs per game, comfortably in the middle of the pack in the majors. But, since the trade, they've given up almost a run more per game, at 5.5. Giving up runs like this will completely neutralize the Phillies' greatest asset, their offense, which scores just a hair under 5.5 runs per game. In fact, if the Phillies are giving up 5.5 and scoring just under 5.5, there's no chance of winning another game all season.

Cliff Lee seems like a nice guy. He had a great year last year and was doing more of the same this year. However, since his trade, he has completely destroyed the once proud 2009 Philadelphia Phillies.

With the non-waiver trading deadline still yet to pass, thank goodness we still have time to trade him away.

3 recs | Comment 49 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

gotta be kidding me after 2 losses

yeah and that full series BEFORE the cliff lee trade they looked like crap and got lucky… just another slump

by FMitchellSTFU on Jul 31, 2009 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

uh

what

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 31, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol

its gotta be a joke just a bit too much effort i guess

by FMitchellSTFU on Jul 31, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hahahha

i think this is funny .. its deff a joke

by jack is better than asante on Jul 31, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you’re not worried about what Lee has done to this team, you’re really turning a blind eye to a glaring problem. I mean, just look at the math. They’re giving up 5.5 runs per game but scoring just about 5.45 (or just 1.0 now!). That means ZERO wins from here on out. Are you willing to live with that?!?!?!

by David S. Cohen on Jul 31, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In jest there's truth!?

Funny post. Let’s hope the WIP guys don’t read it. They might actually run with it.

by Boundforbeach on Jul 31, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WIP guys know how to read? I thought they just grunted and it was ‘translated’ by their call screeners.

by WanderingMoses on Jul 31, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would love for this article to be cited by someone (WIP, the Inky, Jayson Stark) as evidence that Philadelphia fans are growing impatient with the team after acquiring Lee. You just know that Stark is drooling to write that article.

by David S. Cohen on Jul 31, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love that you’re continuing to argue with people, too.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Jul 31, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ROFL.....

I was actually dreading dropping in this morning, expecting a doom-and-gloom story about us dropping two in a row after trading for Lee. This satire made my day.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Jul 31, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agree! Maybe we can trade him for Halliday! :-)

by DeanH on Jul 31, 2009 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

please hope bluejfk doesnt look at this, he likes his small sample sizes

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Jul 31, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

every once in a while, we all have to compensat for our small sample sizes.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 31, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For real?

Why would you write this when Lee hasnt even pitched yet, if he sucks today then you can write this negative crap

by MalibuLSV23 on Jul 31, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes for real

They’re scoring 1.0 runs per game since they got Lee! That’s not sustainable! I just can’t believe the negative impact he’s having on Howard, Ibanez, Rollins, Werth, and Utley. The man is a pariah in the dugout, obviously!!!

by David S. Cohen on Jul 31, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s like a screening article

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 31, 2009 12:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

shh

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 31, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah but see, those who are ‘out’ won’t realize what I meant anyway :)

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 31, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

comment of the day

well played sir

by dajafi on Jul 31, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very Onion-esque

Well played.

by andyreidswaistline on Jul 31, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

gotta be a joke

It seems erroneous to me to start making comments like this, after only TWO games have been played since the trade…..sounds like someone forgot that the season still has 62 left. Taking that into consideration, this must be a joke- and I applaud the boredom that must have inspired the research contained therein.

by Lemongrassjones on Jul 31, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Are you people kidding me?

I’m in utter shock there are people that stupid not to recognize this guy is just kidding.

Well done, Cohen. Good stuff.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Jul 31, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by JpH89 on Jul 31, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m never shocked by how stupid some people can be…I just have to remember 2000-2008

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 31, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From henceforth, “The Cliff Lee effect” should refer to the devolution of irony on the Internet.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 31, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is a Jonah who clearly needs to be thrown off the ship

Thank you for the refined, SABR-savvy guts to post this courageous piece about this disturbing new development. This may even derail MattS’ campaign at BP.

by Wet Luzinski on Jul 31, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Philly fans are so ridiculous it was only 2 games!!! god stop acting like the sky is falling and cut the phillies some slack they are still in first place!

;-)

by Clyde Simmons on Jul 31, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let’s not forget that Mr Francisco has just plain sucked since he got here as well

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 31, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

seriously. do you see how he splits sunflower seeds? horrible… total lack of effort. he just chews them all into a pulp, doesn’t even shell them and eat them… this trade will be the death of all of the grit, guts and gritty-guts that built this team… boooooo

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Jul 31, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I missed these last 2 late games

but clearly Lee isn’t holding up his part of the deal. Well said.

by Ritty77 on Jul 31, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cliff looks good in Red.

by Clyde Simmons on Jul 31, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thank You David

What a great read to start my day. It’s hard to say if I laughed louder reading your post or some of the comments. Geesh (no comment).

by Steve-O- on Jul 31, 2009 1:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Apparently we were thinking alike when I made my jestful comment in the morning roundup thread.

As I skimmed through your article, I feel like you’ve omitted a very good piece of evidence that supports the issue.

Cliff Lee was in Cleveland, where the bats were bad and he couldn’t get any run support. He comes to Philly, and our bats have just died.

In their one game without Lee..the Indians put up a 3 spot. They played one less game than the Phils in that span and have still outscored us!! Cliff Lee is a cancer to hitting, be it the other team, or his own.

by Bilzo on Jul 31, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mostly Francisco's fault

While Lee deserves some of the blame for the dire straits the Phillies are currently in, Ben Francisco wearing Darren Daulton’s #10 has had a greater negative effect on the team.

by MS35 on Jul 31, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s not the end of the world.

by phila on Jul 31, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, Brett Favre wore number 10 for the Phillies last year and the team was no worse off.

by WanderingMoses on Jul 31, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No horror movie is scarier than the fact that some people believed this was serious.

by myrestingpulse_121bpm on Jul 31, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hilarious

Nice job taking all of the outrageous Philly fan concerns and putting it all together in this article. To me, the Phillies now have the cockiness of a Red Sox or Yankees, and just won’t work hard the rest of the season now that they have the saviors of Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco. As long as Eric Bruntlett keeps up the beard and stays under .125 then we have a great shot at blowing the division.

http://www.broadstreetheroes.com/

by Heroes of Broad Street on Jul 31, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If only i felt this was meant as sarcasm

History tells me it’s not

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 31, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lol. +1

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Jul 31, 2009 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

haha

by phils11 on Jul 31, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m being sarcastic for the most part, except the stuff about Eric Bruntlett. Only 3 current players (all pitchers) have a lower on base percentage than him and one of those three, Cole Hamels, has a higher slugging percentage. Jamie Moyer’s OBP is .257 compared to Bruntlett’s measly .198, it’s pathetic. I pray that the OP is sarcasm.

http://www.broadstreetheroes.com/

by Heroes of Broad Street on Jul 31, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wish i had this much free time…you gotta be kidding me with this? why would you even consider writing that article? maybe it was meant for the mets site idk

by Dlance04 on Jul 31, 2009 7:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Haha, nice

I really wish this got posted on philly.com just so you could read comments from scores of people dumb enough to buy into what was said.

On another, somewhat unrelated note: originally Lee was listed to pitch against Lincecum. I would’ve loved to see that match-up. What a shame.

by jefu on Jul 31, 2009 8:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Embarrassing

A human being of normal intelligence should realize this post was a joke after 5-10 seconds. Someone of lesser intelligence should realize it after 10-20 seconds. Anyone who took more than 20 seconds is pretty much an idiot. And anyone who not only didn’t realize it was a joke, but decided to post a comment about what a ridiculous post it was, is honestly an embarrassment to the city of Philadelphia, the Phillies, the internet, and the world as a whole.

by Drew S on Aug 1, 2009 12:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Saved

Glad I had the advantage of reading the comments first… or I would have been posted as one of the idiots! Good satire, but as a Philly Fan since the “dark ages” of the 60’s it is hard to forget the negativity of past fans (and how the old Phils used to choke!).

I can still remember the Phils winning into the 9th inning on a Richie Allen home run, then my dad saying “They’ll choke. They always do”, and sure enough the game went down the toilet.

Thank God times have changed in the city of “Brotherly Love”! Go Phils!

by Fillyfaninforeignland on Aug 1, 2009 1:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cute. Funnin' on chronic Philly complainers.

Lee must have seen the game the other day when Happ got no help from Phillies hitters.

Lee brought his bat with him to San Francisco.

Seriously, though, the Phillie hitters need to stay focused. The way they’re prone to strikeouts, and can’t play small ball, they’re never far away from a slump.

by jonnysco on Aug 1, 2009 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s a joke, but at least he could have gotten the stats right. He thinks Lee was with the Phillies for only 2 games. Actually He’s been with them 3 and pitched for the Phillies on Friday. He won 5-1.
Am I missing something?

by Stat junkie on Aug 3, 2009 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs