From First Place Over the Mets to First Place Over the Marlins: How We Got Here

by David S. Cohen on Jul 6, 2009 1:16 PM EDT

The Phillies high water mark for the season came on June 4. They had just beaten the Dodgers for their seventh win in a row, fourth in a row on the road. They were 42-30, four games up on the Mets. The Braves were 6 games behind, playing .500 ball. The Marlins were 7.5 games behind, 3 games under .500.

Fast forward to the start of play today. The Phillies are still in first place, but this time only one game up on the Marlins. The Mets are still four games back, but so are the Braves. And they're both 3 games under .500.

How'd we get here, despite a horrible interleague stretch? The standings below, for games from June 5 to July 5 (inclusive), tell the story:

	W	L	Win %	RS	RA	Diff.
FLA	17	11	0.607	123	114	9
ATL	13	16	0.448	116	122	-6
NYM	11	18	0.379	109	145	-36
PHL	10	17	0.370	117	134	-17
WAS	10	17	0.370	98	128	-30

Since June 4, the Phillies have been terrible. In fact, they've been as bad as the Nationals. But, lucky for the Phils, the Mets have been almost equally as bad.

The Marlins, on the other hand, picked a great time to get hot. However, their 9 run differential over the past 28 games does not indicate the Marlins are clobbering their opposition. Rather, they're getting lucky in close games. Their success shouldn't be sustainable.

Just like the Phillies' failure.

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The Mets run differential during that time was worse than the Phils. One would expect them to start sinking even faster. Just have to hope that they sink far enough to not recover once they get their guns back.

by Bilzo on Jul 6, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions

32-40 was our high point for you, eh?

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 6, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions

Fixed

Thanks. I’d blame sleep-deprivation-related dyslexia, but I’ve actually gotten a few good nights of sleep in a row thanks to kids suddenly deciding that 7:30 is a good wakeup time (as opposed to 6:15).

by David S. Cohen on Jul 6, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions

To add another point, the starting rotation wasn’t the problem during that stretch. In fact, the rotation’s ERA has improved substantially in every month of the season (April 6.35, May 5.53, June 4.10, and the first week of July 3.48).

Unfortunately, our offense has also gotten worse every month of the season. (The bullpen also had a subpar June.) Not every hitter was bad in June, but no one played over his head while two guys, Rollins and Ruiz, had unbelievably bad months and Ibanez was injured. Howard was also a little bit off.

The offense will bounce back – maybe not all the way to its April production levels (6.0 R/G), but enough. And even if the rotation is pitching over its head right now – and I don’t know that it is, considering that its recent improved numbers include a rather poor stretch from Hamels – its current performance is much closer to what it’s truly capable of than its performance in April was.

So again, no reason to panic.

by taco pal on Jul 6, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

Also, the other moral to the story is, next time your friend tells you that the Phillies’ recent slump proves that they need to go out and do whatever it takes to acquire a “high end starting pitcher,” a “top of the rotation starter,” a “number two,” or other words to that effect, give him a good solid kick to the groin. The recent slump proves no such thing. A “number two” would be nice at the right price, but our need for such a creature has, if anything, decreased, not increased.

by taco pal on Jul 6, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

I am not willing to see the future mortgaged here. There are some great prospects that I am anxious to see in red pinstripes in forthcoming years. I am not anxious to watch Doyle Alexander for 4 months in exchange for losing John Smoltz for his entire career.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Jul 7, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions