Rosenthal: Halladay on the move

This is the only player I'd consider trading Kyle Drabek for. I'm guessing it'd probably take two of our top four (Drabek, Brown, Taylor, Knapp) and one or two from the next tier (Carrasco, Bastardo, Marson, Donald).

over 2 years ago WholeCamels 27 comments 1 recs |

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Does he have a NTC? If so, it might be easier for the Phils to get him considering we just won the WFC.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 7, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions

nice

WFC

by sports00fan00 on Jul 7, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

or would it be the WFS

by sports00fan00 on Jul 7, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Not according to Chut.

by SJPhillyVT on Jul 7, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

According to the radio report I heard today, yes he has a NTC but they didn’t say if it was full or partial

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Jul 7, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

you’d have to throw in happ too. the blue jays are going to want a player with major league experience. man would that be awesome… hamels and holladay as our one-two punch.

by awd777 on Jul 7, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Well said, WholeCamels.

I’m all for keeping prospects, but Halladay is worth moving anyone for. The only caveat is: one of Taylor/Brown must stay, and one of Drabek/Carrasco must stay. I’d be loathe to part with J.A. Happ; I honestly think I’d flinch if the Jays asked for a Drabek/Taylor/Happ package, but anything short of that, we should do.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 7, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

No one is worth moving “anyone” for. There are limits. Halladay is an incredible pitcher, but he’s 32 and only under contract for one more year.

What I want to know is, how much do our chances of winning a title increase if we acquire Halladay? I’m sure this must be quantifiable. He would make about 15 starts max in the regular season (of which we would win maybe 8 without him), and one guaranteed start per series in the postseason if we make it.

What would really suck is if we got Halladay for the playoffs and he happened to have a bad game in the DS. Remember what happened to Sabathia against us last year.

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Regarding the DS, it’s about increasing your chances. He may suck, but he has a lot less chance of sucking over Moyer or Blanton or whomever.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 7, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

How much is a lot? This is what I want to know.

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s a cascading effect. Let’s say Hamels stays at #1, then Halladay, then Blanton then Happ? So, it’s really the difference between Halladay and Moyer.

There is also the benefit of what Halladay may do for the pen. 15 starts where the likelihood of the pitcher NOT going out in the 4th inning is much greater. Pen stays stronger, maybe a couple more indirect wins come from that.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 7, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand all that, but how great is the effect? Is there a way to run probabilities in hard numbers?

Also, technically it wouldn’t be a straight-up Halladay vs. Moyer comparison. It would be:
1. Between 1-2 games of Halladay + 0-1 games of Happ
vs.
2. Between 1-2 games of Happ + 0-1 games of Moyer

(or whatever). Since the fourth starter can only pitch once per series, and since you don’t know if any pitcher’s second start will be necessary in any given series.

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Also, the value of the trade would have to be discounted even from that, since your pitcher could suck and you could still win the game. (And conversely, a great pitching performance could go wasted in one particular game either way.)

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

For what little it’s worth, the Blue Jays have won 62.0% of Halladay’s starts since the beginning of last year (31-19).

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

By "anyone"...

…I’m not saying, “Go ahead and give Ricciardi his pick of any 5 prospects in our system.” What I’m saying is that while it’s not worth it to give up certain prospects for certain players — J.A. Happ for Jason Marquis, for instance, or Michael Taylor for Brian Bannister — there isn’t a “deal-breaker” in a trade for Roy Halladay. If they want a reasonable package centered around Drabek, then sure, pull the trigger.

I think it’s also important to remember the context here: the Phillies have an in-their-prime, championship-caliber lineup, a bullpen that looks to be getting back to its best, fantastic defense all around… and a pitching staff composed of Cole Hamels and a bunch of #4/5 starters. I know they’ve already won one, but if you have a chance to get Roy Halladay, a top 5 starting pitcher in baseball, for 1.5 years at a reasonable price in prospects, then it’d be a crying shame not to.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 7, 2009 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions

On a mildly tangential note, I have really come to despise Ken Rosenthal. That guy has the same smarmy demeanor and facial expressions as a celebrity gossip writer. I don’t know if he’s necessarily inaccurate and the rumors that he mongers are admittedly newsworthier than the celebrity stuff. But I find his attitude very off-putting. But that’s just me.

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions

KenRo really douched it up when he was trying to smite Jerod Morris on ESPN.

As Jim Carrey said in Liar Liar, “He’s a pedantic, pontificating, pretentious bastard, a belligerent old fart, a worthless steaming pile of cow dung, figuratively speaking.”

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Jul 7, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

WFC...

2008 is definitely coloring my perspective on this. If we were in a position like the 2008 Brewers — no postseason appearances in forever, on the cusp — I’d say sell anyone and everyone for a guy like Halladay. As it is, I’m more inclined to be patient… I’d move significant pieces, but I wouldn’t gut the system.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jul 7, 2009 4:11 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with the whole 1 in the hand and bush and stuff like that…

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Jul 7, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I was just checking MLB Trade Rumors and there is an article outlining five scenarios for the Phils acquiring Halladay. I love Halladay as much as the next person, but there are certain prospects that I wouldn’t want to give up. We should focus on keeping Drabek or Taylor because losing both would not be good. The one thing we have going for us is the fact that our outfield is set with Ibanez, Werth, and Victorino, so losing a Mayberry, Brown, or Taylor isn’t as bad as losing a pitching prospect like Drabek or Carrasco. If we were to trade for Halladay I think JA Happ is gone too. I’m not sure how I feel about that because he could be showing signs of greatness now, or he could be the Kyle Kendrick of 2009.

http://www.broadstreetheroes.com/

by Heroes of Broad Street on Jul 7, 2009 4:29 PM EDT reply actions

"the outfield is set"

Probably before the end of 2010, it will be important to replace at least one of the incumbent OFs with Taylor or Brown, for reasons of cost as much as possible performance decline. If those guys turn out to be as good in the bigs as their minor-league performance suggests they might be, that’s almost the equivalent of having another Utley or Hamels at the MLB minimum. (I say “almost” just because OF is generally easier to staff with quality than middle infield or rotation.)

So you can trade one (and I wouldn’t put Mayberry, whose upside I still see as “solid platoon guy,” in that boat with them), but not both. (Not that I think you’re saying “trade both,” to be clear.)

by dajafi on Jul 7, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ve been seeing this sentiment a lot: that’s it’s okay to trade one, as long as you don’t trade both. I agree that it’s not as bad. But with outfielders, you can play both guys at the same time so it’s less true than it is with infielders or catchers.

Even with other positions, it’s problematic. Taylor and Brown are not interchangeable, they’re speculative commodities. It’s possible that only one of them will turn out to be good, and if so, we don’t know which one. Even if both turn out to be good, we don’t know which one will be better. One of the reasons why the Phillies thought it was OK to trade Ryne Sandberg and Julio Franco in the early ‘80s was that they also had Juan Samuel and Luis Aguayo. But in retrospect, they didn’t have their bases covered after all.

by taco pal on Jul 7, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions