Jamie Moyer to the Bullpen: It's the Economics, Stupid!

by WholeCamels on Aug 11, 2009 11:41 AM EDT

The Phillies relegation of starting pitcher Jamie Moyer to the bullpen was not just a matter of performance -- it's an effort to mitigate the financial hit the team could take should Moyer reach certain incentive thresholds in his contract.

First, let's look at the contract, courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts:

* 2 years/$13MM (2009-10)
   o re-signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 12/15/08
   o 09:$6.5M, 10:$6.5M
   o performance bonuses: $0.25M each for 150, 160, 170, 180, 190 IP
   o 2010 salary increases by:
      + $0.25M for 150 IP, 23 starts
      + $0.5M each for 160, 170, 180, 190 IP and 25, 27, 29, 31 starts
   o limited no-trade clause allowing Moyer to block deals to 6 clubs (no more than 4 in one league)

So what does moving Moyer to the bullpen do? After the jump...

* Moyer currently sits at 123.1 innings pitched. He's 26.2 innings away (about five starts) from triggering a $250K bonus, and two more starts away from triggering a second $250K bonus. Moving Moyer to the bullpen likely saves the team $500K, as he's fairly unlikely to pitch 26.2 relief innings the rest of the season.

* Boy, those escalators really take off in 2010. Keeping Moyer in the rotation for next season would be an extremely expensive proposition. He would be owed an extra $500K for reaching 150 IP and 23 starts. For reference, he has started 22 games this season so far.

* Holy crap. An extra HALF MILLION DOLLARS for each ten innings beyond 150 next season, and another half million for each two starts past 23 starts.

EDIT: Based on discussions elsewhere, it appears that those 2010 thresholds may apply to 2009 performance, i.e., if Moyer makes his 23rd start in 2009, it triggers a $250K increase to his 2010 base salary. Same with all the innings pitched thresholds for 2010. This makes the matter all the more pressing for the Phillies; if Moyer pitched 190 innings in 2009, by this interpretation, the Phillies would be out $4.5 million in 2010, whether or not Moyer throws a single pitch next year.

So, at a minimum, we're looking at least a $500K savings, possibly up to $1 million, this season by moving Moyer to the bullpen and, depending on how the team goes forward next season, a potential $4.5 million in savings by keeping Jamie Moyer out of the rotation in 2010.

How to spend this extra dough:

1. Colvin

2. Stewart

3. Susac

4. Hats for Sarge

Jamie Moyer has been a good Phillie and deserves all the credit in the world for being a terrific human being and a great teammate, but for a team operating on a budget, dropping that kind of coin on a subpar starting pitcher just does not make financial sense.

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Comments

Does Jaime have a potential grievance?

This seems a little under-handed to me, especially given Pedro could very well be just as bad.

by phatj on Aug 11, 2009 12:05 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know what to say about that… but it’s not like the “demotion” wasn’t justified by performance. If he had a 4.00 ERA then he’d have a case. Of course, the Phillies wouldn’t have moved him were that the case.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Aug 11, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean, if the Phillies had a phenom tearing up AAA (or even AA) that they promoted to take Moyer’s spot, that’s one thing; but to promote Pedro, whose ERA in the minors was basically the same as Moyer’s has been in the majors and who hasn’t been a good major-league pitcher in over two years… I dunno. It’s hard to spin this as a merit-based decision.

by phatj on Aug 11, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

A grievance would be hard to establish...

The CBA generally contemplates grievances pertaining to issues regarding player health, safety, and disciplinary action. At the end of the day, Jaime would have to show that the decision to move him to the pen was a pretext for avoiding contractual obligations. No one on the Phillies will ever admit to this. And as Whole points out, the position is nearly impossible to prove given Moyer’s performance of late.

That said, I’m not nearly as concerned over the potential savings for 2009 as I am for 2010. I really think that if Pedro struggles in his first few starts, Moyer will quickly return. Savings be damned.

by Boundforbeach on Aug 11, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Easy to establish

They grieve these roster actions all the time – you just don’t hear about it because it happens over the winter in front of an arbitrator. And no one has to admit to anything – you get all their e-mails via subpoena, and I guarantee someone as dumb as Amaro will have laid out all the admissions you need in an e-mail to someone somewhere. I guarantee that someone in that front office has more loyalty toward Moyer and the players than toward golden-boy Ruben, and will let the needed evidence slip out somewhere…

And also, Andy Martino is an idiot who doesn’t know $hit about baseball. Also.

by SJDinAudubon on Aug 12, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

One of my pet theories about life is that when you make major decisions involving money, like becoming an investment banker, you don’t have to factor money into minor decisions, like whether or not to take a taxi home rather than walk or wait for the train. The converse is also true: if you decide you want to be a social worker, you have to watch marginal spending.

With Moyer, the Phillies in effect decided last winter to be a social worker, giving an actuarially ridiculous contract to a guy who, wonderful as he is, was almost certain to prove unworthy of it from a performance standpoint. It was a generous action that arguably brought less-tangible benefits—having Moyer around to bestow Jedi wisdom on the younger arms, casting a rosy glow upon the Phils as an organization—but created the potential both for a logjam in the rotation and throwing still more good money after bad performance.

I’m not thrilled that they have to factor the incentive questions into roster/usage decisions now, because (as j alludes to in the comment above) it could come back to bite them in the ass. But if it works on the merits—if Pedro represents an upgrade in the rotation, as I think he will—we’ll all be fine with it.

by dajafi on Aug 11, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

pedro economics, too

1 year/$2M (2009)

    * signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 7/14/09 (pro-rated for final 82 days of season)
    * performance bonuses:
          o $75,000 for 50 IP, $0.125M for 75 IP, $0.175M for 100 IP
          o $75,000 each for 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 starts; $0.1M for 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 starts
          o $50,000 each for 10, 15, 20, 25 relief appearances
    * roster bonuses: $50,000 each for 15, 30, 45, 60, 75 days on active roster
    * award bonus: $0.1M for NL Comeback Player of the Year

so the savings aren’t quite as much when you factor in pedro’s incentives. 53 games left.. thats what, 60 IP for pedro maybe? and if he has 9 starts or so?

Thats: $75,000(50 IP) + $75,000(6th start) + $75,000 (7th start) + $75,000 (8th start) + $75,000 (9th start) = $375,000.

So I agree with you that the incentives factor a lot into next year’s decision making, but as far as this year goes, I feel like it might just be a performance move.

by char6587 on Aug 11, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

thats the extra money they’d spend by putting pedro in the rotation. we can probably assume that he’d get the active roster bonuses whether he was starting or in the ’pen. maybe subtract 50K if he made 10+ relief appearances

by char6587 on Aug 11, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Am I the only one scared of Moyer coming out of the bullpen? His starts usually started real bad, but then as the game went on he’d settle in and not let in much more. Doesn’t bode well for a 2 or 3 inning appearance.

by SJPhillyVT on Aug 11, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions

Honestly, I dont feel like this played as much a role in the move as it may seem. I think the Phillies and the fans would gladly fork over .25 million to Moyer if he even had a 3.7-4.2 ERA or some such numbers. Plus, it is not like they didnt give Moyer a lot of leeway, considering his age. He has had 3 (?) bad starts in a row now.

Also, as stated above, I think if Pedro struggles Moyer gets his spot back relatively quickly. With the Phillies lead (though decreasing) in the NL East, giving their oldest starting pitcher a couple of weeks rest makes a good deal of sense. It is not that difficult to foresee a situation in September where the Phillies need Moyer to pitch and need him to win (ideally by pitching well). Some level of fatigue has to be effecting him, though he may not be all that effective even after rest.

by Whack8888 on Aug 11, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions

He has not had 3 bad starts in a row.
Last 3 starts:
5 innings 2 earned runs
5 innings 6 earned runs
6 2/3 innings 0 earned runs
Looks like 1 bad start out of the last 3 to me.

by JWoody on Aug 11, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks, that is why I put the ? in parenthesis. I decided to look it up, and 3 of his last 4 I think can be considered bad. 5 innings 2 runs doesnt seem all that bad but the Marlins also got 11 hits. He also only got 1 strikeout there. The 5 innings 6 runs speaks for itself. 6 2/3 innings 0 runs was a decent start, but at the same time, he did walk 4 and give up 6 hits. The start before that was 5 innings 5 runs. So that 2 bad starts, one medicore start and one good though perhaps a bit lucky start out of his last 4.

by Whack8888 on Aug 11, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, if you look at his last 4 starts, 2 out of 4 were bad…in fact…Look at his earned runs for his last 10 starts (as far back as I could get my hands on quickly):
2 6 0 4 0 6 1 4 1 6
earned runs in even numbered starts: 2 0 0 1 1 (pretty impressive)
earned runs in odd numbered starts: 6 4 6 4 6 (pretty bad)
Not all of his wins were when the bats were scoring 6 or more, but going back quite a ways, he has been following a quality start with a bad one. But then coming back after the bad one with a quality start. Frustrating…

by JWoody on Aug 11, 2009 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Hummm

Interesting comments. I worked for an aerospace company years ago. At 10 years my pension would be vested. At 9 and 3/4 years the company laid me off. My performance was good and I had not missed a day of work in 4 years. Two years later the company asked me to come back because they needed me. I lost my seniority and had to take a pay cut but it worked out for me. Was I pissed, not really, what comes around goes around.

by fan since late 40's on Aug 11, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

Not happy

Jamie is not happy with the move to the bullpen: http://blogs.delawareonline.com/philledin/2009/08/11/aug-11-moyer-speaks/

I’m really not happy with this decision that the Phillies have made. I will take what they’ve asked me to do, but I’m not real excited about the decision that’s been made. Ultimately, I’m a little disheartened a little bit because I know this past winter when I was negotiating with the Phillies, this was a sore thumb, if you will, about this potentially happening. Ruben, you can’t promise anything in this game, but I really felt that Ruben kind of parlayed to me that this type of situation would not happen. I actually even had some conversation with David [Montgomery], and them reassuring me this type of situation won’t happen. Again, I’m a little disheartened by the way it’s happened, how it’s happened.

I’d really like to know what he thinks the Phillies should have done. Not signed Pedro? They didn’t have Lee at the time and did not know if they had to give up Happ in a trade. So that would have been bad to not pick up a pitcher when you have a possible need just in case you might hurt his feelings.

Does he want them to move Happ to the bullpen? That would be insane sending one of your best performing starters to the bullpen so that you would not hurt the feelings of the worst performing starter.

Maybe he thinks they should put Pedro in the bullpen or release him.

I feel like I’ve played this game long enough that the respect factor should be there.

Pedro might not have played as long but he deserves more respect as a starting pitcher for his career than Moyer does. Obviously the Philles think Pedro is an upgrade for this season.

Moyer is going to be starting again in September, so I find it annoying that he is complaining about going to the bullpen for a few weeks. The team could actually use a lefty in the bullpen right now and has an extra starter so suck it up and try to help the team!

by PhDave on Aug 11, 2009 7:57 PM EDT reply actions

Closer

Maybe they could use Moyer as a closer…

by lunarc on Aug 11, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions

The Fear of God

There’s nothing that strikes fear into opposing teams quite like a closer with a 78mph fastball……..

by Lemongrassjones on Aug 12, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Budget???

This team has FIFTY sell-outs! This is that Cheapo Buck Family all over again. What a rip-off! And go look at the starters’ stats over the past month – Moyer is number 3, NOT number 6.

And for what? A has-been who can’t go six innings in the minor leagues?? PEEdro was a closer for his “national” team – so what was the problem about bringing him up for the bullpen? Lord knows, we need long relief every time Hamels pitches, lately.

Amaro is just a lackey for Montgomery, who is just a waterboy for the Bucks.

Jamie should just bitch and moan until they have to release him, them he would get all his contract minimums and help some team that wants him. These moneychangers in the Phils front office are making sure he won’t get more than the minimums anyway…

Amaro: Lying Scumbag.
Chucklehead: Clueless as usual

by SJDinAudubon on Aug 12, 2009 1:02 AM EDT reply actions

Pedro pitched the most innings of any of the DR pitchers

Just sayin’.

I’m not sure where the venom is coming from; you related to Moyer or something?

by phatj on Aug 12, 2009 9:07 AM EDT reply actions

If the whole money thing was taken out of the question, all Phillie fans (unrelated to Moyer ala SJDinAudubon) would swap Moyer for Pedro at this point. It is performance based and nothing else. If Pedro stinks, then he will be better suited for the pen and Moyer will get his spot back.

by LondonPhillie on Aug 12, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions

Padilla

Jamie should be thankful. His on again off again numbers resemble that of Vicente Padilla, who was recently released by the Texas Rangers.

This is a move that is all about winning now. The Phillies know that Pedro as much craftiness as Jamie Moyer but with far more electrtic stuff.

My feeling is that at worst Pedro will throw up the same numbers as Moyer. With his rejuvenated velocity(compared to last year) we may have a Pedro who finds his groove down the stretch in September. That would be a step up.

by bluejfk on Aug 12, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions