Although I agree Hamels has been a lot better than his results suggest, I think his xFIP, despite its generally superior predictive power over ERA and FIP, is a little optimistic. There’s no question he’s been hit-unlucky. But his very high HR/FB rate probably isn’t all down to bad luck. I remember reading an article looking at yearly correlations of HR/FB rate that found a moderate correlation. That fits with (my, at least) perception that he’s missing up in the zone a lot this year.