Baseball Prospectus kindly plays the remainder of the season millions of times to bring us all the playoff odds on a daily basis. Clicky-clicky. I frequently delight in the obvious, such as the fact that the Phillies will, barring a catastrophic collapse, win the NL East and thereby earn a golden ticket into the Willy Wonka's chocolate factory at the end of the season. Let us hope they are, again, Cholly, and not Veruca Salt. The ugliness for the Fish is below the cut.

Below that are some questions that, given the math, I think are less obvious and more interesting. Since the division is almost assuredly locked up, how should the team (if at all) alter its strategy for call-ups or use of regulars?

 

As of this morning, the Phillies have played 106 games (61-45, .575). The Marlins have played 108 (55-53, .509). The Phillies have lost 45 and the Marlins have lost 53. The Marlins, to win outright, have to lose 9 fewer games over their last 54 games than the Phillies lose over their last 56.

If the Phillies continue to play .575 ball, they will win 32 and lose 24 the rest of the way. The Marlins would then need to go 39-15 (.722 or a 117 win pace). Can it be done? Sure, but fat chance. The Phillies just went 20-7 in July, for one of their best records ever for a month. The Marlins would have to do that in back-to-back months.

If the Phillies regress to .500 (28-28), then the Marlins would still need to go 35-19, which is nearly the same level of performance (.648, or a 105 win pace).

Keep in mind that the best win% in MLB this year is the Dodgers at .615. For a short period (and the rest of the season qualifies) it is certainly possible to put on big bursts -- the Phillies just went .741 for July, which is clearly unsustainable for the long term, but not impossibly unsustainable for a shorter term. The Mariners had a magical season like that in recent memory, but it was one for the ages.

Even if the Phillies start to choke at a .450 pace (25 - 31), the Marlins need to go 32-22 (.592). Phillies at .400 (22-34)? Marlins must go 29-25 (.537) which they haven't been able to do all season.

There is not just "one chance" for the Phillies to choke -- the Braves are, like the guy in the Holy Grail "Not dead yet..." but it's worse for them. They still have a lottery ticket too, though, and two small chances are worse for the Phillies than one small chance. BP will track that for us, too.

The reason years like 1964 are so remarkable is that they happen so infrequently. That said, the Phillies did benefit from two massive collapses by the Mets over the last two years. Nevertheless, a collapse like that is highly unlikely and it is getting less and less likely with each Phillies win or Marlins loss. I am pretty much writing off that scenario as "highly unlikely" though I certainly expect consternation re: jinxes and other myths from some of you -- we cheer for the Phillies, after all, so there is certainly a good, strong tradition of expecting the worst.

In any case, let's assume my forecast is highly likely: *What to do now?*

There will assuredly be many calls to "keep the pedal to the metal" and "don't play not to lose", but I don't buy any of that. This isn't the fourth quarter of a football game. This is the inexorable and slow mathematical suffocation of the Mets, Braves, and Marlins (more or less in that order, and likely complete by the third week of September).

What should the Phillies do under these circumstances?

1. Starting Pitcher abuse: I was disgusted with the decision for drag out Happ for the ninth with his pitch count where it was earlier this week. I likewise was not thrilled when Lee (in his first Phillies start) went as long as he did. One of the reasons the 2008 team won so many games was a lack of injuries. Dragging out the starters, while it may be needed occasionally for the pen, seems absurd if the team hopes to have good, fresh arms to pitch in meaningful games in October. I propose a hard ceiling of 95-100 pitches. This is somewhat arbitrary, but there should be no 120+ pitch outings. There are plenty of garbage innings available from the bottom of the bullpen.

2. Position players: Rollins should be left alone. His mojo is working, finally, so my thought is to let him continue to terrorize the world. Ibanez: he is not getting any younger. Sit him more. Think about whether calling up players (Michael Taylor?) would be worth any possible acceleration of free agency/arbitration and weigh that vs. having Stairs play a bit more to take the edge off. Let's see more Bruntlett (I can't believe I'm saying this, but it might not be bad to have him out there every game) and let one of Utley/Howard/Feliz have more time off. Keep Ruiz and Bako switching regularly.

3. Bullpen: Keep working Lidge/Madson regularly to see what really is there, but watch the overall usage. Better (?) to have fresh and erratic than tired and erratic, I guess. Don't be afraid to try out Pedro (or possibly Myers) in a significant bullpen audition. Myers will be a FA anyway -- might as well use him. He's probably game, since he'd like to show something in advance of filing.

4. Rotation: Keep hucking Moyer out there. Keep putting Happ out there. There's no need to get rid of anybody. Perhaps the 6 man rotation could be tried, considering that a Pedro start would essentially be a bullpen start (figuring on using 3 or so pitchers before bridging to the back of the pen to close it out). With an expanded roster available in September, I think this makes even more sense. This may help to rest Hamels a bit (although the discussions on his peripherals earlier this week here suggests Hamels may not be as much of a problem as it appears at first blush).

In any case, I am all for coasting, but the coasting needs to be productive with a goal in mind: find out about the minor league talent (without exposing the team to adverse payroll consequences down the road); rest players to avoid injuries/fatigue; find out what Pedro has in the tank; try to learn more about the pen (Myers? Pedro possibly? Keep working Lidge/Madson. See if Condrey can contribute).

Nothing shocking or remarkable, but I think the issues are worth thinking about. Circumstances may change, but right now, instead of furiously charging to the end, as with the last two years, the team is in a different situation. It would be foolish not to at least consider the changed circumstances and see how those might need to be modified given the differences from the last two seasons.