Clean Cole: Phillies 1, Giants 0

by WholeCamels on Sep 1, 2009 9:55 PM EDT

Ladies and gentlemen, meet Cole Hamels. Again.

Hamels' inconsistency and struggles from the summer of 2009 were forgotten for another night, as the young lefthander pitched an absolute masterpiece against he visiting Giants, holding them to just two hits and one walk in throwing his second shutout of the season, and fourth of his career. He struck out nine, and for good measure, stole a base in the second inning. He threw just 118 pitches, 80 for strikes.

Hamels was nearly matched by Giants' starter Jonathan Sanchez, who held the Phillies to just one run on a fourth inning RBI double by Ryan Howard. Sanchez struck out eight in his six innings of work, but had to come out of the game due to a high pitch count.

The Phillies benefited from some great defense yet again, including some terrific infield play from Jimmy Rollins.

Cole has now thrown 17 19 consecutive shutout innings, going back to last week's game in Pittsburgh.

This is the Cole Hamels we saw last October, and this is the Cole Hamels who can lead the Phillies to another World Championship. A one-two punch of Cliff Lee and a dialed-in Cole Hamels would probably horrify the rest of baseball.

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19 shutout innings

He gave up 4 in 5 vs. the Mets, but the last two of those innings were scoreless. 41 more to erase Hershiser from the record books!

by taco pal on Sep 1, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions

He went World Series on their ass!

I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.

by Christopher A on Sep 1, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions

Correction

“A one-two punch of Cliff Lee and a dialed-in Cole Hamels [is] horrify[ing] the rest of baseball.”

by ajay on Sep 2, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

List of teams with 1-2 punches who are not horrified

Lets use a definition of the nebulous term “dialed in” as best FIP in any one season or this year to date, and lets see how things stack up:

Phillies:
Lee – 2.83
Hamels – 3.72

Yankees:
CC – 2.91
Burnett – 3.11

Red Sox:
Beckett – 2.94
Lester – 3.10

Cardinals:
Carpenter – 2.76
Wainwright – 3.31

Giants:
Lincecum – 2.23
Cain – 3.78

Braves:
Vazquez – 2.79
Jurrjens – 3.59

There’s probably others, but I stopped there.

by fphjr01 on Sep 2, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Except that Hamels has shown the ability to win in the playoffs, for whatever that’s worth, and Lee has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last month and a half, one bad start against the Braves notwithstanding. They’re capable of matching up with anyone, season-long accumulated stats mean very little when it comes to a short playoff series.

Thanks for your contribution. And I whole-heartedly apologize for not providing a strict definition for the term “dialed in.”

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 2, 2009 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure how quantifiable

the “ability to win in the playoffs” is. Sounds like “clutch” to me.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 2, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

well, quantifiable only in that he didn’t have it until last year, now he does. That and a well-located fastball will get you exactly one strike, depending on the umpire.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 2, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

How many playoff appearances does ‘recent’ (past couple seasons) cliff lee have?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 2, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

best pitcher last 1.5 months

Lee has faced in the last 1.5 months:

Sea x2, Tor, Sfo, Col, Cubs, Ari, Mets, Atl

Seattle has the worst offense in the AL (by runs scored), Tor is 13g under .500, San Fran has 2nd worst offense in NL, Col is legit, Cubs struggle to score runs, Ari is 13g under .500, Mets are fielding a AAA lineup, and the Braves shelled him.

So in summary, C Lee is tremendous against the bottom feeders of baseball and had a great game against Colorado. Let’s see him succeed more than 1x against a playoff quality lineup before we get too excited about how great he is.

by fphjr01 on Sep 2, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I don’t really have a dog in this fight, but how does it support your argument in any way that Toronto and Arizona are 13g under .500? Isn’t that just misdirection? What matters is the quality of their offenses, not the W-L record of their teams, right? If certain facts don’t support your argument, you can’t just replace them with red herrings to cover that up.

Now, in point of fact, it’s actually true that, on balance, Lee has faced some easier-than-average opponents lately. Still, a 1.80 ERA and a 2.47 FIP are a 1.80 ERA and a 2.47 FIP. Even if those stats were earned against weaker lineups, that doesn’t mean you can just throw them out or treat them as being completely meaningless. What you should do is try to estimate how much worse he would have done if he had faced better lineups over that stretch. Sure, he would have done somewhat worse, but if you’re starting from a 1.80/2.47 baseline (even against relatively weak lineups), chances are your results would still have been very, very good.

by taco pal on Sep 2, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for pointing it out

Rank of all the teams in terms of runs scored

Sea 29th
Tor 12th
Sfo 28th
Col 6th
Chc 22nd
Ari 15th
Mets 23rd
Atl 18th

Adding up the ranks and dividing by 9 (count Sea 2x), we get a hypothetical team with the 20-21st best offense in baseball. So, he’s faced the bottom 1/3 of baseball in his last month and half. My point still stands.

And your point that he still would have been good (or likely to be good) with stated ERA / FIP is just your opinion. Maybe I think that if he played the Yanks or Cards or Red Sox or Dodgers he may not have been very, very good. Asking me to estimate what he would have done in a situation that won’t happen is pointless — and more of a red herring than picking one fact over another. The point is that we have no idea until we see him do it, which is what I said at the end of the previous post.

by fphjr01 on Sep 2, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh really. It’s “more of a red herring” to look at a pitcher’s stats vs. certain major league lineups and then extrapolate how he might do against other major league lineups, where all of said lineups have aggregate statistical records that can be comparatively evaluated; than it is to say that a pitcher’s record-independent pitching stats vs. an opponent can be discounted because that team has a bad overall W-L record. Really.

Nice rhetorical flourish but it’s a nonsensical argument. It really isn’t that hard to come up with a very basic estimate. The teams you listed (double-counting Seattle) have scored 5208 runs in 1188 games, for an average of 4.38 R/G. The Yankees have scored 753 runs in 132 games, for an average of 5.70 R/G. The difference between those two numbers is 1.32 R/G. In MLB, about 7.5% of all runs scored have been unearned, so the difference in earned runs can be estimated at 1.22 R/G. So if we suppose Lee had pitched against the Yankees’ murderers row lineup in every single one of his last nine games, we could then set a baseline estimate for his stats as 3.02 ERA and 3.69 FIP. If he had merely pitched every single one of those games against an excellent lineup like, say Minnesota’s, the estimate would move to 2.33 ERA and 3.00 FIP.

Of course, that wouldn’t take into account all kinds of statistical noise such as ballpark factors, batter-vs-pitcher matchups, etc etc. But as a baseline, middle-of-the-bell-curve estimate, it’s perfectly reasonable. It’s a lot more reasonable than just waving your hand and acting like Lee’s stats have no meaning at all and that we just have no possible way of guessing how he would have done against better teams over that stretch.

by taco pal on Sep 2, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Served.

"It was almost like if Harry didn't call it, it wasn't real." - Jayson Stark

by Chris Haines on Sep 2, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Impressive statistical analysis!

So you’ve taken Lee’s real stats, gone back and linearly averaged / added / subtracted year-to-date run differentials between good and bad teams, assumed everything else is statistical noise, and viola! we have Lee’s adjusted performance against the Yankees or whoever. C Lee definitely dominates everyone. Well done, AccuScore has a job waiting for you. While we’re at it, lets let the AccuScore (or similar) determine what will happen for the rest of the year, because any result other than the statistical average could never really happen, could it?

You also exaggerate my response, in claiming that I act like Lee’s stats have no meaning at all. I never said that. I said “Let’s see him succeed more than 1x against a playoff quality lineup before we get too excited about how great he is”. That doesn’t mean he won’t continue to dominate. Apologies if wanting to see him perform on the field instead of a spreadsheet against a quality opponent prevents me from jumping on the bandwagon just yet.

by fphjr01 on Sep 2, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

You realize, don’t you, that that’s basically just a simplified version of how they calculate ballpark factors, minor league equivalencies, and all kinds of other useful statistical tools. The fact that it’s easy to compute is more an indictment of your failure to even make an effort to determine how the stats would project in other circumstances than it is an indictment of the methodology itself. Does it precisely show “what would have been” in some sort of scientific or prophetic way? Of course not, but it isn’t supposed to. What it’s supposed to do is give you a middle-of-the-bell-curve estimate, just like every other statistical device that people use to project performance in baseball. (It’s certainly more statistically rigorous than “adding up the ranks” of the teams he’s faced and dividing by 9. I mean, come on.)

Also, I did not “exaggerate your response”. I characterized your position accurately, and while I’m sorry to say it, you are now lying because you were caught and you want to backtrack on what you said. You said:

And your point that he still would have been good (or likely to be good) with stated ERA / FIP is just your opinion.

Here, by claiming it was “just an opinion” you were saying that there was no factual basis for believing that Lee’s performance would likely have been strong against better teams as well – that is, that Lee’s stats against the teams he pitched against have zero evidentiary weight in determining how well he actually pitched independent of his level of competition.

You also said:

Asking me to estimate what he would have done in a situation that won’t happen is pointless.

Again, by claiming that running an estimate is “pointless,” you were saying that Lee’s prior stats have zero bearing in determining how well he actually pitched independent of his level of competition.

Here’s a tip: It’s highly unwise to argue dishonestly on a blog. Your prior responses are there in writing for everyone to see.

by taco pal on Sep 2, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

When I said “it was just your opinion”, it was in fact, just your opinion at the time according to what you wrote. In a subsequent post, you presented a statistical argument that Lee would probably be pretty good. Since your entire argument boils down to a middle-of-the-bellcurve approach, you can’t argue against the possibility of other outcomes.

Which brings me to my pointless comment, where you infer that I imply that prior stats have zero bearing, which I never said or implied. The reason this argument is pointless (as I indicated above) is that we don’t know which outcome on your bell curve would have happened. The next step would be to estimate how broad the distribution of outcomes would be, which would be equally pointless. If you want to assume that your middle of the road estimate = the only reality and QED that’s what would have happened, then go for it.

Good day sir.

by fphjr01 on Sep 2, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure

But my point wasn’t that they have the best 1-2 punch in the league, just one of the best.

Also, SI recently put together a list of the best 1-2 punches and they had Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ and his 2.63 ERA as the Phillies 1-2 punch. Add a former World Series MVP in there who’s righted himself and that’s pretty good. Throw on Joe Blanton as the #4 and that’s pretty deep too.

by ajay on Sep 2, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Seriously – just ERA comaprisons huh?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 2, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Those are FIPs.

by taco pal on Sep 2, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

ah – missed that – stupid python studying blurs eyes…

One thing I’d like to see is a more recent breakdown…how are they pitching ‘now’ – Where are lee’s “NL” numbers after his bad recent outing?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 2, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Game score

I don’t know how much the “game score” statistic for pitchers means, but they put it in every game and I check it out of curiosity sometimes. Hamels score of 91 tonight is tied for fifth best score of the season: #1 was Sanchez’ no-hitter, #2 was Buehrle’s perfect game. And Justin Verlander and some guy named Cliff Lee tied for third for throwing nine innings of zero earned runs and 11 K’s. The others with a score of 91 were Tim Lincecum and Jeff Niemann of Tampa Bay. Pretty good night for Cole.

by phillyinportland on Sep 2, 2009 2:21 AM EDT reply actions

you can look up how it’s done, but essentially you get bonus points for Ks on top of other outs, and lose points for hits/homers/etc.

It basically boils down to 100 being about a perfect game, 90 being awesome, 60-80 being quality, 40-50 being marginal, and anything less than that atrocious. It is also possible to get negatives, and they’re not that uncommon.

by Bilzo on Sep 2, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions

from ESPN Sports Glossary

GSc
Game Score. Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

By Comparsion to Hamels’s 91 last night, Carrasco got a 17.

by Bilzo on Sep 2, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Wheres Zach Grienke vs the Mariners?

by philiafan14364 on Sep 2, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

By the way… Did anyone happen to catch Carlos Carrascos’ debut tonight? Ouch.

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by JasonB on Sep 2, 2009 2:42 AM EDT reply actions

Cole Postgame

When you play the Mets, knowing the [depleted] team they have, and all of a sudden, you’re getting beat by the bench guys, you have to really put things in perspective. You can’t get the ‘A’ guys out, and you can’t even get the ‘B’ guys out, you’ve got a problem. So, that’s when I decided to go out there and break it down to simple and know what are the reasons why I got to the big leagues. I really tried not to stress myself out in going out there and trying to be too good or trying to fall into those expectations.

by EastFallowfield on Sep 2, 2009 5:16 AM EDT reply actions

Bulletin board material

…as if it matters.

by phatj on Sep 2, 2009 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions

For who?

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by JasonB on Sep 2, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

For what?

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 2, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Not the game that I die for every night, but practice, man, practice.

How silly is that?

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 2, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Remember...

Hamels is only 25……….25. Howard wasn’t even to the bigs at 25. He is still young, especially for a lefty starter, on whom baseball teams should not give up until mid/late twenties.

With everyone trying to figure out who he is this year (the Verducci effect is clearly in the conversation at least), remember his age. He is still just a young ’un.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 2, 2009 6:39 AM EDT reply actions

If they’re all dialed-in, I think the 1-2-3 of Lee, Hollywood, and Cupcake is one of the scariest short rotations in baseball (and dagnabbit, we need a nickname for Lee).

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Sep 2, 2009 7:29 AM EDT reply actions