Catastrophic Success: Phillies 5, Mets 4

by dajafi on Sep 13, 2009 4:09 PM EDT

They came thisclose to *it* happening again: up 4-0 heading into the 8th, the Phillies saw the Mets get two runs in each of the last two innings, and it was only by virtue of their own additional run scored in the bottom of the eighth that the Phils and shaky-as-ever Brad Lidge got away with a 5-4 win.

For the first seven innings, the story was very different: Kyle Kendrick's implausibly great return to the major leagues after a year in triple-A trying to learn a changeup. Kendrick announced his presence with authority, striking out the side in the first inning; he wouldn't get another K all day, but induced ground out after ground out from a frustrated Mets lineup through 7.1 innings of work. Meanwhile, the Phils scored a first-inning run against Mets starter John Maine, making his first start since June, and added three more against reliever Tobi Stoner on a Ben Francisco solo shot in the fourth and Shane Victorino two-run homer an inning later.

Otherwise, the Phils continued their struggles with runners in scoring position, stranding eight runners on the day. But they finally did get a hit in a key spot after the Mets drew within 4-2 on Anderson Hernandez's two-run homer off Kendrick. With two outs in the bottom of the eighth, against reliever Lance Broadway, pinch-hitter Matt Stairs doubled. With Eric Bruntlett running for Stairs, pinch-hitter Andy Tracy followed with a run-scoring single to stretch the Phils' lead to 5-2.

They needed it, as Lidge immediately allowed a single to Jeff Francoeur, who took second on defensive indifference. Lidge got pinch-hitter Carlos Beltran to ground out, but Mets rookie Josh Thole drove in Francoeur with his fourth hit of the day. He took second as well, and after Lidge struck out Luis Castillo on an outside fastball, came around to score on a Jeremy Reed single. Finally, Lidge ended it by striking out Angel Pagan on a slider--earning his 29th save, and making all of us hate the save stat anew.

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At this point...

… I’ll take it.

The difference between yesterday and today is that we got a key hit in the bottom of the 8th today. Had that happened yesterday, we’d be going for the series sweep tonight.

Good on Kendrick for a great outing today. With Kendrick on the mound and Myers in the pen, it’s 2007 all over again! Does that mean we’re going to get swept by the Rockies in Round One?

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Sep 13, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions

It depends on how the division leaders finish.

Right now, we’d get the Dodgers, and the Cards would play the Rox in round one due to same division opponents not being able to play each other in the first round. We’d have to finish better than the Cardinals to get the Rockies in the playoffs, and I don’t think they’d sweep us again if we met them in the first round as it is.

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Further clarified..

Assume the Rockies win the Wild Card, and the Dodgers, Phillies, and Cardinals win their divisions.

If the Dodgers have the best record of the division champs, they play the division champ with the worst record since the Wild Card is in their division, so the division champ with the second best record gets the Rockies.

If the Cardinals have the best record, they get the Rockies.

If the Phillies have the best record, they get the Rockies.

So yeah, the extremely simplified is that whoever finishes with the best record out of the Cardinals and Phillies will play the Rockies in the first around. I have no idea how tiebreakers work if they end up with the same record though. =p

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 4:27 PM EDT reply actions

…and that’s just fine with me. Be careful what you wish for and all that, but I’ll tell you one thing…

I do NOT want to face the Cardinals in the opening round.

Carpenter and Wainwright are just plain scary in a short series, and their heavily right-handed lineup is a bad matchup for our heavily left-handed rotation. I know the Dodgers’ lineup is right-leaning as well, but I just don’t think it’s as scary as the Cards’, and while Billingsley/Kershaw is nothing to sneeze at, it doesn’t even come close to Carpenter/Wainwright.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 13, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, unless the Marlins win the Wild Card...

There is no possible way for us to face the Cardinals in the first round. And hell, if the Marlins win the WC, we’re all screwed since the don’t ever lose in the post season.

I guess the Cubs and Braves are technically in the WC race but yeah… no. =p

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoops, that’s true.

I guess I was just trying to make the point that even if the Dodgers look fantastic down the stretch and finish with 96 wins, I’d still be happy we got to face them instead of the Cardinals. And with as hot as the Rockies have been — and given that I think Ubaldo Jimenez is the best starter that either the Dodgers or Rockies have right now — it won’t bother me one way or the other which NL West team we get.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 13, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Phillies win game 2 today, the Mets are eliminated

By my calculations, after the first game of the double header, a Mets loss and a Phillies win will reduce the magic number by 2 for the Phils vs. the Mets, eliminating the Mets for 2009.

While that may not really be of significance (the Braves/Marlins are this year’s targets), it is an added incentive to win.

Just to be clear, I mean: “Team to beat, my ass!” and not “Team to beat my ass.”

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, goodbye…"

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 13, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions

So while there are many pitchers in the bullpen it seems the closer options are limited to Madson or Lidge?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 13, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions

Hopefully they try Myers out.

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 5:31 PM EDT reply actions

the same Brett Myers who let the Mets back into the game yesterday?

I think people will be sorely disappointed by “closer Myers”.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 13, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Eh, it’s one bad outing. I don’t think anyone’s ready to run Cliff Lee out on a rail yet.

Historically, Myers is a better closer than Madson, and Lidge isn’t really an option for the moment. Why not try it?

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions

Who is talking about Cliff Lee?

Historically Myers has also had a lot more opportunities to close than Ryan Madson as well…

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 13, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

And historically...

Myers tends to be the better closer. He’s not quite lights out, but Madson has been a liability this year. At this point with Lidge not reliable, Myers is about the only option as far as an experienced, somewhat reliable closer we have.

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Ignoring the ‘closer’ role – for a time this season the best arm for one inning out of the bullpen was ryan madson was it not?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 13, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, as long as that one inning wasn’t the 9th. That particular inning has been his kryptonite, whereas he’s lights out setting up for the save attempt.

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

There simply aren’t any good bullpen options right now. This is why I get annoyed with anyone who puts this on Manuel: what’s he supposed to do when all the arms stink at once?

by dajafi on Sep 13, 2009 5:53 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

He has only tried two people.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 13, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions

An argument COULD be made for giving Myers a try since he’s done it before, but if he’s not 100% yet it wouldn’t make sense.

Personally, come playoff time, you’ll need Madson, Myers or Lidge to get it done or you totally have to rearrange your bullpen.

I don’t know that there’s enough time left in the season to try everyone else is there?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 13, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Give Chan Ho some chances. If you need to get a lefty or two, give Eyre the ball. Play the matchups. I don’t know.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 13, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Is it a good idea to take perhaps our best long reliever (Notwithstanding Jamie Moyer, the Incredible Hulk proving that you shouldn’t make him angry, else he’ll destroy the other team out of the pen) and try to make him a closer?

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

i don’t know. I don’t even pretend to have any answers anymore. I am basically suggesting a mix and match approach to the 9th from here on out. In any case, I have serious doubts about our prospects for success in the playoffs given the way things have been playing out late in games. We might just have to eat it this year. It is at the point where I am preparing myself for a painful 2007-esque early exit from the playoffs.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 13, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree. This would be the perfect opportunity to utilize the entire bullpen in different spots depending on the matchups — an actual closer-by-committee, though I know that’s become a much-maligned term.

But reality check here: there’s not a chance in hell Charlie does it. It doesn’t make him any different from any other manager, but let’s face facts — Charlie believes he needs to have a traditional, go-to closer, and I just shudder what will happen to this team next month if he thinks Lidge can be that guy.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 13, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

The Phillies have shown tremendous depth at starting pitching this year. Happ, Drew Carpenter, Bastardo, Lopez, Martinez (though he is a little different), and now Kendrick have all come in at various times and been pretty successful considering none of them had a starting pitching job at the start of the year. That is awesome, and possibly one of the most important factors that has a good chance of being overlooked in the team’s success this year.

by Whack8888 on Sep 13, 2009 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

In happier news...

Nats 7, Fish 2, bottom of the 9th. Don’t blow it, Nats.

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions

Aaaand...

Another rain delay…

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Aaaand..

Ballgame, Nats win!

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions

It just kept raining as if Noah was readying the ark.

by WanderingMoses on Sep 13, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

An Ark for our season? I’ll ride it.

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

An idea

Let’s not be up by less than 3 runs at the ninth, so we dont need to worry about the closer. With our offense starting to get it together, it’s possible?

by PhilliesPhan610 on Sep 13, 2009 8:16 PM EDT reply actions

Wait...

We don’t worry about our closer when up by 3 runs or more?

by RaptorLC on Sep 13, 2009 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

The Phillies have winning records vs COL the likely NL wild card winner as well as vs LAD and STL. Of course we have not played the Dodgers the Rockies or ST Louis in while.

The Dodgers have gotten worse.
One could of made the case in the 1st half of the season LAD was the best team in the NL.
That is NOT the case Now

the Cards are MUCH better… both the starting pitching and the arrival of Matt Holliday to that Line up. On the other hand when the phillies played STL …mainly in the 1st half of the season.. the Phillies starting pitcher was AWFUL.

since July 1 the Phillies have the 2nd best STARTING PITCHER ERA in the NL.
But the philies are NOT hitting as nearly as well… while the CARDS are hitting much better . And the phillies cannot score with RISP… either with 2 outs or or less than 2 outs.

moreover the Phillies cannot close or save a game. Madson this weekend below another one and so almost did Lidge.

16 blown SAVES between them …15 LOSSES.

As I write this in the 2nd game vs the Mets Jayson Werth with runners 1st and 2nd could not get a hit.
Against a bum like Tim Redding.

COL? well they ARE playing Like the phillies USE to play in JULY and early AUG… and are Now playing the BEST baseball in the NL Going from 10 games below 500 before the all start break to 20 games above!

Given all of this and assuming Nothing changes
the Phillies cannot get back to the WS. No chance.

could it snow tomorrow in Philly? sure

Is it possible that MYERS becomes the closer and saves the day and the games? sure
could Pedro become the closer in the playoffs?…. sure.

by wxdavid on Sep 13, 2009 9:50 PM EDT reply actions

You may be right

But if you’re not I hope you’ll let us know how your prediction worked out.
Predictions at this time of year are really iffy. Last year, mid-September, Phillies were struggling to catch the Mets and the Cubs were clearly the best team in the NL. We all know how that turned out. The most reliable thing we had going for us in 2008 was Brad Lidge. But he was not nearly the key part to winning in the post-season that he had been in the regular season. If I remember correctly, starting pitching and timely hitting carried the team more than Lidge’s saves did. So I think it’s kind of early to write them off.
I don’t know what assuming nothing changes can mean except not hitting with RISP and blowing saves. And, yes, if that continues it would be hard for any team to win, so that’s kind of like a guaranteed prediction where you’re saying as long as they continue to fail they’ll lose.

by phillyinportland on Sep 13, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions