I Love Me Some of That New Pitching Blood

by David S. Cohen on Sep 14, 2009 10:54 AM EDT

Last night, Pedro Martinez was the Pedro of old. He wasn't as good as his career-defining (to me) six innings of no-hit relief in that crazy game 5 of the 1999 ALDS against the Cleveland Indians, but he was damn close. The Phillies' win was the seventh for the team when Pedro starts, and he's only started seven games.

The remarkable thing about the Phillies' 7-0 record in Pedro's starts is that he's not the only major mid-season pitching acquisition who has had this effect on the team. The Phillies are 6-2 in Cliff Lee's starts this year. That means the Phillies are a remarkable 13-2 in starts by their major acquisitions.

In fact, if you take out Lee's and Martinez's starts for the Phillies, the Phillies have played horribly since Lee and Martinez joined the team. Since July 31 (when Lee joined the team first), the team is 11-16 in games started by pitchers not named Lee or Martinez, good for a .407 winning percentage. As I wrote above, the team is 13-2 in starts from Lee and Martinez, good for an .867 winning percentage.

Something's going on here, isn't it? No, small sample size, you say? Let's go back a few years to give us a bigger set of data. In the last three full seasons, the Phillies have made major starting pitching acquisitions in July or August. In 2006, it was Jamie Moyer. The team went 6-2 in his starts. In 2007, it was Kyle Lohse. The team went 9-4 in his starts. In 2008, it was Joe Blanton. The team was 9-4 in his starts.

Put this all together, and you have a team that has gone 37-12 in starts from its major mid-season pitching acquisitions over the past 4 years. That's a .756 winning percentage over 49 games for the team. Compare that to the rest of the team's games since Moyer was acquired. He joined the team for his first start on August 22, 2006. Since that day, the Phillies have won 76% of starts by mid-season acquisitions (37-12) but only 55% of starts from their other pitchers (249-206).

Now, we all know that wins are not a good metric of a pitcher's ability or performance. However, they are a great measure of a team's ability and performance. And, based on these records, it sure seems like the Phillies, as a team, have been doing something different when their new acquisitions are on the mound.

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Moyer, Blanton, Lee, Pedro come from places where the NL hadn’t seen them most of the season (AL or not playing)

That might have helped?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 14, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

I can buy that, though it somewhat implies big-time regression as the opponents see them a second and third time, in that season or the next one. Moyer was worse in ’07 but better again in ’08. Blanton, for the most part, has been better this year than last. For Lee and Pedro, of course, jury is still out.

That case is probably stronger if you count Kendrick as a midseason addition from ’07 and consider the utter pounding he took in the second half last year.

by dajafi on Sep 14, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point, but....

I’d love to see stats about other teams’ success (or failure) with starters moving from one league (or retirement) to another mid-season. Is this just par for the course? Or is the Phillies’ success unusual? I’d bet that you’re absolutely right that this is part of it, but I’d also think that this level of success (75%+!!) is unusual.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 14, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Just was an observation – it’s one of those long held things that switching from the AL to NL helps a pitcher.

A quick google search finds this from The Hardball Times

And this from Sports Fan 4.

And this from nwsource.com in 2007.

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 14, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Thanks for the links.

The Hardball Times article concludes: “Overall, a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL would see his ERA drop by about 0.41 points.”

Does a 0.41 ERA drop translate to the crazy success that the Phillies’ additions have meant . . . for the team? Maybe the 0.41 ERA drop plus going to a team with a dominant offense is the key. When you put those two things together, you get the success we’ve seen here.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 14, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

The nwsource.com article (though a few years older) looks at ERA+ as opposed to ERA which as I understand it is a better way to look at it?

We all know that Lee has had much more run support since he moved from the AL to the NL but I don’t think he’s pitching that much better (but don’t know that for sure until running numbers to be sure)

When i figure out what the hell i’m doing I definitely want to do some ‘game logs’ for like eric seidman did at BP – that’s kind of fun to read

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 14, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I also think

it’s fair to argue that an average pitcher may see a .41 ERA improvement, but for someone at times dominant like Lee and Pedro have been at times in their careers, the improvement may be more dramatic. It’s possible the Lee’s and Sabathia’s of the world are bending that curve a little for everyone else.

by Cormican on Sep 14, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions