Predict Clinch Day

by David S. Cohen on Sep 18, 2009 10:47 AM EDT

I don't believe in superstition. Never have. Never will. So I'll just say it: Sometime in the next few weeks, the Phillies are going to win the NL East for the third time in a row.

The big question is when. Right now, the Phils have 17 games left and are 7.5 up on the Braves and 8 up on the Marlins. Here are the remaining schedules for each team:

Phillies: at Braves (3), at Marlins (3), at Brewers (4), Astros (4), Marlins (3)

Marlins: at Reds (3), Phillies (3), Mets (3), at Braves (3), at Phillies (3)

Braves: Phillies (3), at Mets (3), at Nationals (3), Marlins (3), Nationals (4)

The Phils' magic number stands at 10 for the Braves and 9 for the Marlins. So when do they clinch?

My prediction is they clinch on the last day of their 10-game road trip -- in Milwaukee on Sunday the 27th. I'd love for it to happen a day later at home on Monday the 28th against the Astros, or better yet Tuesday the 29th when I'll be at the game, but I don't think it'll take that long. (Nor would that be a good thing, as we all know the Phillies can't beat the Astros.)

What's your prediction?

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Sat., the 26th...

Big Joey Blanton gets the W, Ryan Howard has a monstrous opposite field blast in the top of the 9th that hits Bernie Brewer’s slide.

Bye, Big Stew and JJ :(

by JimmyK on Sep 18, 2009 10:52 AM EDT reply actions

I actually have tickets to the first Astros game, so I might have to start actively rooting for the Phils to lose a few games on this trip.

by taco pal on Sep 18, 2009 10:53 AM EDT reply actions

Even though we are playing the Braves and Marlins, I don’t think we can count on the magic number necessarily going down by two when we win one of those games.

I don’t want to be pessimistic, but I think we will see the Phils play roughly .500 over these next couple of series. That, and the Mets will pretty much roll over for the Braves and the Fish. So I’m picking………… the 29th.

Enjoy the game, David!

by Cthepitch on Sep 18, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions

I'll take it!

by David S. Cohen on Sep 18, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I’ll be at the game in Milwaukee on the 27th—that would be a good day for it.

by jack27 on Sep 18, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

I never know how this magic number stuff works – if you beat the team in second place it drops by 2 right?

So by the end of the weekend i believe the magic number will be 6 against the braves (phils take 2 of 3) and 6 against the marlins (marlins take 2 of 3 from the reds)

Phillies then take 2 out of 3 against the marlins – magic number drops to 2 against the marlins

Braves sweep the M-E-S-S MESS MESS MESS – magic number at 4 against the braves.

Phils split with the brewers – eliminate the marlins.

Braves take 2 of 3 from the Nats – magic number down to 1

So – i predict the first or second game of the astros series IF I’ve done the math right.

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 18, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

I mostly agree with jemagee. I think it’ll happen on Saturday, with the scenario outlined above plus two changes:

-Braves take 2/3 from the Mets

-Phils lose one of the first three games of the Brewers series (Thursday, maybe?), then win the next two en route to taking 3/4.

by Aphilfan on Sep 18, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions

5 games from now.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 18, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

My prediction

Second game of the Astros series, Sept. 29

Crashburn Alley

by Crashburn Alley on Sep 18, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions

First game of the last series is the logical progression from past seasons, no?

by yosoysean on Sep 18, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Sunday the 27th vs MIL

so when it won’t matter, the bench will take 3 of 4 from Dumbo Ears and his craptastic Astros.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 18, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions

Tuesday 29th against the Astros, Phillies lose the game, but Braves lose to the Marlins and the Marlins had already been out of it at that point.

by Whack8888 on Sep 18, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

That would be kind of lame.

by taco pal on Sep 18, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha, yes it certainly would be

by Whack8888 on Sep 18, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Have to say, at this point, I’m more interested in who the Phils are going to play in the first round. Right now, it looks like the Rockies. Which would probably be the best matchup, other than maybe the Dodgers. The Cards look really good, especially in a short series.

But with the Cards, Dodgers, and Phils all bunched together, everything is pretty fluid right now.

Of course, since I’m actually in L.A., I’d really like to see the Phils play the Dodgers, preferably in the NLCS, so I can go to a game. And later, I’d like to see Phils/Angels, so I could go to one of those games. Being able to go and see the Phils clinch the NLCS last year was amazing.

Then again, part of me would love to see the Phils beat the Yankees or Sox, just to see if ESPN would STFU for 5 minutes about the Yanks/Sox. As if you can’t tell, I’m still a little miffed about ESPN in general, and in particular, Baseball Tonight having Cliff Lee on the phone after his win over the Nationals and spending most of it asking him about the Yankees/Jays brawl. WTF.

by The R on Sep 18, 2009 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

Speaking of Yanks/Sox hype…

If the Phillies get home-field in the first round, Games 1 and 2 will almost certainly be scheduled on weekday afternoons, so we’re all either going to have to either skip the games or miss work. The prime time slot on October 7 in going to go to the Yankees-Tigers game, while the prime time slot on October 8 will go to Red Sox-Angels, even though that game is on the West Coast — they’ll start it at 5 p.m. local so they can accommodate “Red Sox Nation” at the expense of inconveniencing both Angels fans and Phillies fans. (Link to schedule here.) Part of me is almost tempted to root for the Phillies to lose home-field so their weekday games will at least be scheduled for the somewhat less inconvenient late-night slot.

So, in conclusion, screw the Yankees, screw the Red Sox, screw TBS, screw ESPN and its stupid kool kid celebrity worship, and screw Bud Selig. A pox on all five of your houses.

by taco pal on Sep 18, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions