This is INSANE - Pull the Plug on Brad Lidge

by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2009 11:22 AM EDT

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. -- Albert Einstein

I've had it. And I know I'm not the only one.

Charlie Manuel has to shelve Brad Lidge. I know other options in the bullpen aren't great, but nothing can be as bad as Brad Lidge has been this year.

Let's look just at Lidge's save situations. He has 31 saves and 10 blown saves. That by itself is atrocious. It's even worse though when you look at the actual game logs for those 41 save situations.

In those 41 games, Lidge has a 7.50 ERA and an 8.50 RA. Like in yesterday's game, he has let up at least 1 run in 20 of those 41 appearances. So basically the Phillies have a 50/50 chance that Lidge will let up a run when he comes in with the game on the line. Is there any further proof needed that he should not be in close games?

Looking further, Lidge has a 1.86 WHIP in those 41 games. In only 10 of those 41 appearances has he not let up a baserunner by hit or walk. In 22 of those 41 games he has let up 2 or more. Even if you buy into the notion of a closer, this is not what a closer does. This is what a AA guy does in September call-up mop-up appearances.

With the playoffs approaching, Charlie Manuel has to, as he has told his players countless times, forget about 2008. He has to ignore the weekly claim by Lidge that he's now turning things around. He has to look to the other arms in his bullpen and think creatively about how he's going to get the last few outs of the ballgame. Because whoever else is out there in the bullpen will be better than Lidge has been this year. If they're not, they shouldn't be in organized baseball.

41 save appearances and 148 games into the season, we know what the results are going to be when Lidge comes into the game. Expecting anything else just proves Einstein right.

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Comments

Honestly, I’m not bothered by it at all. It’s a foregone conclusion that we’re going to make the playoffs. I won’t be annoyed if Charlie uses Lidge after we clinch. So I can’t get too annoyed if he uses him when we have a 99% certainty of clinching either.

Now if he actually uses Lidge in the playoffs, well, that will be a different story.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

And if he keeps using him in the regular season – clinched or not – without giving anyone else a shot at closing -what makes you think he’d suddenly throw someone ‘in the deep end’ once the playoffs start without any time to adjust to the ‘seriousness’ and ‘gravity’ of being the closer.

If lidge is the closer the rest of the season he’s the closer for the playoffs…

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 21, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, for one thing, he is “giving someone else a shot at closing” about half the time, namely Madson. Lidge has pitched only in 3-run save situations since the Houston debacle, while Madson has pitched in every 1- and 2-run save situation. So the factual premise of your supposition is incorrect.

As for the logic of the argument, if the postseason is effectively clinched, then there isn’t very much “gravity” or “seriousness” in any of these ninth innings. That’s why using these games to “prepare” a different closer would be less effective, and using Lidge in these games could very well be experimental and not necessarily indicative of an intent to continue to use him going forward.

Charlie may very well use Lidge in the postseason, but assumptions have to have a rational basis in order to be fair.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

All true. But…

—Madson has been little better in the closer role
—Myers has a shoulder injury
—Park has a hamstring injury
—Romero has been hurt or unavailable almost the whole year

So who should it be? Much as I hate the save stat and traditional bullpen usage patterns, at this point I have to credit the idea that “the last three outs are different,” particularly in the playoffs when you’ve got a full house, a national TV audience and a quality opponent.

The idea I keep playing with in my head is whichever starter’s throw day it is, let that guy close. But there’s less than no chance they’d actually try that. Right?

by dajafi on Sep 21, 2009 11:31 AM EDT reply actions

There’s less than no chance that they’ll try anything different, but that doesn’t stop me from going batty about it. I have a picture in my head of me running headfirst into a wall at Usain Bolt speed. The first time I do it, it hurts . . . a lot. The second time I do it, I think maybe it won’t hurt that much, but it does. After that, I’m a complete idiot to do it again. And again. And again.

Who should Charlie use? Anyone. Mix it up. Use the hot guy. Use Walker. Or Moyer. Or Madson. Hell, use Jake fucking Taschner for all I care. Lidge is NOT WORKING.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Tend to agree.

Lidge has been getting work to improve his confidence, form, whatever. I’m fine with that. But when it really counts, not so much. I don’t want to watch him in a save opportunity in the postseason with a couch pillow partially covering my eyes. Because it IS a horror movie.

I do have a casual fan question, however. When Lidge or others are warming-up in the bullpen, can the BP coaches get an accurate read on whether he has good command and can locate pitches? Or is this something you really can’t accurately assess until a real hitter is in the box? I guess what I’m saying is if Lidge has great stuff warming up in the pen, the decision to bring him in would be much more justified (and vice versa) if this assumption is true. Any thoughts…?

by Boundforbeach on Sep 21, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

My hunch is that anyone who can tell you from warmup observation whether a reliever has the “good stuff” on a given night is selling you a bill of goods, but I could be wrong.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 21, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Every so often, you hear pitchers talk in their postgame interviews about how they’re so surprised they pitched a gem because they felt like they had nothing in their bullpen sessions, yada yada. Might just be b.s. though.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I’ll say this, if we get knocked out of the playoffs for a reason other than our late innings bullpen being awful, I am gonna feel robbed.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 21, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

while I agree that Lidge has been awful, honestly I’m almost as sick of whiny fans with no solutions as I am with Lidge. Madson has been terrible, half the bullpen is injured, and the rest are not viable options. Jack Taschner is HORRIBLE and wont even make the postseason roster if we get the other lefties back. moyer supposedly cant get warmed up in time like a regular reliever so thats not possible. myers, eyre, park, romero: all hurt, and are they gonna close in the postseason after not even getting a chance in the regular season to get their stuff together? i guess walker is possible, but I would expect a blown save within 3 appearances.

at this point, i find the subject old news and it seems at this point that were going to live and die with lidge, simply because theres noone else to do it. sad, but true, and you all know it

by ego on Sep 21, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

Not true

We get outs on a reliable basis with our other pitchers. Use them. I don’t care who. Get rid of the idea that there needs to be a fixed “closer.” If there’s ever been proof that the idea isn’t working, it’s Brad Lidge 2009.

As for your colorful comments, the stats I showed above aren’t “whiny”; they’re accurate descriptions of the problem. And, I have a great solution — use the pitchers who collectively have a 3.45 ERA instead of the pitcher who has a 7.24 ERA. Who are they? Obviously, the 7.24 ERA belongs to Lidge. The 3.45 ERA belongs to the rest of the Phillies bullpen, without Lidge. Use them to get the last three outs of the game as well as the others.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

The inside the numbers guy at BP did two articles about lidge recently

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 21, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I read these last week. I think that one of his premises was that Lidge has lost fastball velocity—down from 95/96 to a tick above 93—which has hampered the effectiveness of both that pitch and his slider.

Not that Lidge was bulletproof against the Braves yesterday, but their gun did have him at 96 on the heat. And he got swings and misses at not-close sliders the way we saw from him last year. Something was working, even if he still chewed on our guts before finishing things off.

by dajafi on Sep 21, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, it says Lidge averaged 94.1 last year and is down to 93.4 this year. Though I guess that could still be significant. The year he threw 95/96 was 2007, his last year with the Astros, in which he was okay but not great.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/9479_02.jpg

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s terrible and that isn’t going to change. If cholly hasn’t reached the end of his rope now he’s never going to. Lidge isn’t going to look any worse over these next few weeks than he has all year, so what would motivate cholly to make a change? If an entire year of awfulness doesn’t do it, why would one more week?

As for solutions… I guess whichever starter doesn’t make the rotation could give it a go in the postseason. It’s not like anyone could be much worse.

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by JasonB on Sep 21, 2009 2:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Here's what's different

Manuel is trying something different with these 3 run save situations and Lidge still sucks. He’s not worth the risk in any situation.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 21, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I in no way feel comfortable giving Lidge the ball with the game on the line … but you are right I think Cholly keeps attempting to get Lidge his “confidence” back I just hope this doesn’t eff us in this next series

Jim Johnson 1941-2009

"The 0-2 pitch, swing and a miss! STRUCK HIM OUT! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! And let the city celebrate! " - Harry Kalas 1936-2009

by Whodie126 on Sep 21, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

One thing that I’ve been wondering is: Was Lidge this easy to run on in ‘08? I know he’s always had a lousy move to first and been slow to the plate, but I don’t remember anyone exploiting it all that badly last year. Every one of the runs he’s given up in the last couple of weeks has been on a hit that followed a SB or defensive indifference.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

I don’t know if it’s gotten that much easier to run on him, but he’s allowed a lot more baserunners this year: 1.811 WHIP to date in 2009, vs. 1.226 last season.

by phatj on Sep 21, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Who is healthy in the bullpen?

By my count the injured are: Park, Myers, Eyre, Romero, Condrey
Who is healthy?
Lidge (?)
Madson
Durbin
Walker
That’s not so many…Who else? use Kendrick as a reliever? Or Happ?
Escalona? Taschner?
Anybody at AAA worth calling up?

by JWoody on Sep 21, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

Happ closing in the playoffs? Assuiming Pedros ok, why not?

by philiafan14364 on Sep 21, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

On one hand, St. Louis used Adam Wainwright to close in the playoffs in 2006, and that worked out well for them. On the other hand, Wainwright pitched that entire year in relief and thus was used to pitching an inning at a time. And he was better than Happ is now.

Also, I’d hate to see Happ vilified in 2010 if he were to blow a key save. If he isn’t a significantly better bet to succeed than someone like, say, Tyler Walker (and I don’t think he is), then we might as well go with the latter.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree

we need ABL (Anyone but Lidge) to close on close games. If we blow a save w/ someone else, so be it. But IF Lidge blows the save,. it will be ROAST Charlie. Not fair but….

I do not understand why Charlie has not tried Walker. He has experience and I think worth the try. As I stated, ABL.

by DeanH on Sep 21, 2009 3:55 PM EDT reply actions

Couple thoughts...

The BP article I read attributed some of his issues to differences in the track of the fastball vs the slider.
Last year they both came in about the same path, but the slider fell off late.
Meaning: Batters couldn’t tell the two apart until it was too late. They had to guess in their mind if the pitch was good or not, and putting such doubt in a batter’s head makes him weak and flaily.

This year, the fastball is staying up higher. Therefore, the batter can assess what’s being thrown easier. High pitch = swing away, low pitch = lay off. There used to be a minimal difference as the pitch appeared, now they can tell them apart.

My second issue is related to what someone else said here about running on Lidge…
If you take any decent pitcher and convert EVERY single and walk into a double, how would that effect their ERA?
If the opposition gets a hit after a base runner in any situation it leads to a run, and another runner on second.
Here’s the basic pattern:
Single/Walk
move to second on FI or SB.
Single scores runner
New ruuner moves to second on FI or SB.
Single scores runner.
Lather/rinse/repeat.

Double plays are taken right out of the book. It’s comical.

Actually, it’s unacceptable. Unless you’re Maddux-esque, you have to pay attention to the runners. FI drives me nuts at the end of games. If you don’t care if that guy scores or not, how aobut you try to throw him out, and if you commit an error, just let him come on home…you’ve already basically said “that run/runner is meaningless”. You might as well go ahead and act that way altogether.

by Bilzo on Sep 21, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions

I have made this comment somewhere before about holding people on first. THat is probably his biggest problem. But, as one has said, you cannot teach old dogs new tricks! IF he would hold people on first, it would be different.

Great points, Bilzo!

by DeanH on Sep 22, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

What is amazing is that there are 10 other teams with as many blown saves (if not more) as we have. The Dodgers and Braves and Tigers and Marlins are just as bad.

In fact, we are 13th in the league in save%. What that tells me is that everyone but the 9th inning guy is getting it done, which amazes me. Maybe it is the 9th inning? Who knows.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 21, 2009 8:11 PM EDT reply actions

ehh..sorta

those teams don’t have closers as bad..they just have bullpens as bad.
Remember, any reliever who gives up the lead gets a blown save.

by Bilzo on Sep 21, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, the Cards find themselves in a similar spot right now only because it appears that the wheels are finally coming off for Ryan Franklin. Problem with Franklin is that his method of closing is to put balls in play and he doesn’t have the dominating stuff Lidge has (when he’s on, of course), so now he’s starting to see a downward trending in his luck. Should be interesting to see how their drama plays out, too.

by doubleh on Sep 21, 2009 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions