What makes the Phillies so good?

by jonk on Sep 21, 2009 8:42 PM EDT Comment 42 comments

This has been an interesting year to say the least. One of our MVPs has gone into the toilet. Our lights out closer's lights have been out. We actually made a trade for a top class pitcher and we picked up possibly the best pitcher ever in his prime. Most people would never have guessed that all of this would have occurred this year and that the Phillies would be 8 up with a handful of game to go.

How are we doing it? Comes down to the basics. At first glance to the untrained eye that "watches" the game, we are no good at the basics. But we are, check it out.

The most basic and fundamental rule in baseball (usually not spoken though) is:

Take what is free, but make them earn it.

Never heard that before? Probably cause I just made it up, but in concept, it is the most valuable aspect in all of baseball. Walk a lot, don't give up the walk = success. Sounds simple right? Better yet, strikeout many more than you walk and let your defense do the rest.

Pitchers:

Walks: #2
Strikeouts: #10
BB/K: #1 and by a decent margin

On the other side of the ball...

Hitters:

Walks: #6
Strikeouts: #10 (with Howard)
BB/K: #5

We have the best walk to strikeout ratio from our hitters and the fifth best walk to strikeout ratio from our hitters. That will likely result in success in almost any season. I'd like to see some more patience from our hitters, but I think it might not be their fault. We have so many good hitters in a row that pitchers loathe to throw balls to our middle guys. While the walks aren't as high as they have been in past years, the strikeouts have dropped a ton too.

That is a double edged sword as well as many of our players almost need to strikeout to succeed. That may sound counter intuitive, but consider it a necessary byproduct of power. Howard HAS to be willing to take borderline pitches that he may pop out or ground out on in order to force a pitcher to throw him a meatball he can crush. Sometimes it works (walk or homerun) but sometimes is doesn't (strikeout). But it is almost a necessary evil.

A few other stats people might not realize that have helped us to one degree or another.

Stolen Base Percentage: #1 and by a lot. Always good to not lose runners on base.

GIDP: #1 (we have 86 and Houston, in last has 141)

What do these mean? It means we aren't losing players on base like other teams are. When one of our boys gets on, he either scores or he gets stranded. That is a good thing. Losing players to CS or GIDP is obviously a rally, killer (kinda like the homerun). Phillies may be the best baserunning team in the league (and probably by a lot).

What have we figured out? It is good to get on base for free and even better to not get thrown out while there. Let your four 30+ homerun guys do their thing and drive you in. I think that will equate to good success in the playoffs. It sure did last year.

0 recs | Comment 42 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Eh?

We have the best walk to strikeout ratio from our hitters and the fifth best walk to strikeout ratio from our hitters.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 8:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I want to imagine you know I meant to put pitchers and you are just trying to poke me.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 21, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

poke poke poke

But seriously, while I know one of them was supposed to be pitchers, which one was it?

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never mind, I see the “with Howard” now, but that’s missable on a quick read.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That should do it...

I think.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 21, 2009 10:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah that works.

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

(Psst. But the one offending sentence remains…)

by taco pal on Sep 21, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’ll consider it a badge of honor.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 21, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m genuinely shocked that we’re last in the league in GIDP. I know that Feliz and Werth are GIDP machines, and that Chooch can roll one to third with the best of ’em. Rollins also kinda high considering his speed. Howard hits everything hard…

I guess the large number of XBH has a lot to do with it. If you take second off the bat, hard to double you up.

by Bilzo on Sep 21, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Werth??

He’s nowhere near a “GIDP machine.” I mean, it’s so far from the truth that it’s ludicrous. I mean, he had a total of 2 GIDP in 2007 and 2008 combined (786 PA).

Granted, this year his GIDPs have “skyrocketed” to 10. But that’s still a pretty small number for an everyday player. It doesn’t even place him in the Top 100 in MLB.

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m aware that Werth didn’t GIDP the last two years. I remember the announcers talking about it all the time and the first one he hit into last year to end his streak….he was actually safe, the ump missed the call.

Perhaps he’s quit doing it, if he only has 10. I thought he had a few more than that. My bad.
I like Werth. I’m just not as in love with him as the rest of y’all are.

by Bilzo on Sep 22, 2009 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is actually by far Werth’s worst GIDP season since 2005. He grounded into TWO all of last season, and NONE in 2007.

Raul Ibanez leads the Phillies, with 15. Miguel Tejada leads the NL with 29.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 22, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is precisely the reason that cumulative numbers matter

I have a nagging “gut feeling” that Happ is about to turn into Kendrick every time he pitches. That appears to be wrong. Having the gut feeling about Werth is the same thing — look at the numbers, and you get disabused of that notion pretty quickly.

jonk’s best sentence in the OP is: "At first glance to the untrained eye that “watches” the game, we are no good at the basics. " That encapsulates the approach to baseball that any serious fan should adopt — be skeptical of what you see.

This is hardly a secret anymore, of course. The conventional wisdom (of 20 years ago) has been continuously exposed as more and more foolish, to the point that it is essentially a straw man. Nevertheless, each generation is essentially a wave of barbarians that must be civilized, so it is good to see reminders on an ongoing basis.

Heck, maybe someday, will see real stats in the sports section…

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Sep 22, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

guilty, but I think you can take it too far the other way too. We had a mid-game discussion a week or two ago where somebody said “it’d be great if Ruiz could become a .280 catcher” and some of y’all stat-snobs got ornery about it.

While OPS and VORP etc are better indicators of a players value, a number like “.280” is something everybody understands. Yes….a guy who hits .280 with no walks or XBH hits sucks…we all know that, but is that a realistic or even common occurrence?

Don’t alienate others is all I’m saying.

by Bilzo on Sep 22, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that’s a fair point. But it’s not being a “stat snob” to say one should look up how many GIDPs a guy has before calling him a “GIDP machine.”

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I admitted thinking he had a few more than he does. Already said guilty.

by Bilzo on Sep 22, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Per BP-Ref:
Werth’s DP% is about 8.7% (I think…I’ve already de-certainized myself on the number). That’s not comically low, but moreso on the low end of “normal” from the numbers around him.

(dp% being # of times he GIDPs when he is able to do so, which IS a better comparison than raw numbers, since leadoff guys get at least 1 AB per game where they can’t GIDP, which adds up over a year)

by Bilzo on Sep 22, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A guy who hits .280 with literally no walks or XBH isn’t a realistic occurrence… but there can be a pretty vast difference in walk rate and XBH rate between one guy and the next, so talking about a “.280 hitter” isn’t particularly useful. Yes, everybody knows what it means, but it’s entirely possible (and not uncommon) for, say, a .250 hitter to be far more productive than a .280 hitter.

by phatj on Sep 22, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But Ruiz hitting .280 . . .

would be awesome. He is one of the best hitting catchers in the league this year hitting .255. Adding 25 points to his batting average would put him in All-Star territory. See, we’re not talking about a guy who doesn’t walk or doesn’t hit XBHs. We’re talking about a specific guy who is valuable offensively when he hits .250. So to say he would really be something if he was a .280 hitter makes perfect sense in my view. In fact, he was a .280-.300 hitter in the high minors and had around an .850 OPS then.

by smitty99 on Sep 22, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, and if Ryan Howard hit .300, he’d be even better, assuming all else stayed equal. But you can’t assume that.

by phatj on Sep 22, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

I think you can pretty much assume it. I suppose occasionally a guy will raise his average and stop walking and hitting for power. But I doubt if that happens very often.

The hard part is raising the average 25 points. But guys have seasons in which they do that. Like Ryan Howard this season for example. His BA is exactly 20 points higher than last season with no loss of power or walks.

Ruiz though is 30 years old and is probably having his best season. I don’ think he’ll ever hit .280 over an entire season. But if he did, he’d be pretty awesome I’d bet. He has a very good walk rate a a tad of power. He’d almost certainly have a very nice season if he hit .280.

by smitty99 on Sep 22, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think this all depends on the context in which the original remark came up.

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

didn’t howard hit .313 one of his first full years? H

by Bilzo on Sep 22, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

comparatively unexposed to leftys.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 22, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also the shift was employed much more consistently against him after 2006, taking away a lot of singles.

by phatj on Sep 22, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Depends on what you mean. Players have fluctuations from year to year in various statistical categories, and it’s reasonable to say that in a high BA year, a player’s overall productivity will be higher. But these kinds of fluctuations are probably just statistical noise as much as anything.

What I meant was that a player cannot necessarily intentionally hit for a higher batting average without adversely impacting other aspects of his offensive game — power and/or walks in particular.

But wishing for the former is kind of like saying “if only Carlos Ruiz hit better, he’d be a better hitter.”

by phatj on Sep 22, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it means

That Ruiz hits .280 some season (it had better be soon ‘cuz he’s getting a bit long in the tooth) and he has a heckuva year. The original quote was this: “guilty, but I think you can take it too far the other way too. We had a mid-game discussion a week or two ago where somebody said "it’d be great if Ruiz could become a .280 catcher" and some of y’all stat-snobs got ornery about it.”

I agree with the author here. There is a tendency to go too far in the opposite direction of relying too heavily on triple crown batting stats and won/lost pct. and ERA for pitchers. Batting average, while not a great stat by itself is still useful in my view.

In the case of Ruiz, I look at it this way. He is a pretty good hitter when he hits .250. His OBP is around 100 points higher than his BA. That’s a valuable skill. He adds a little bit of power. So if he hits .280, he has a heckuva year, unlike a Duane Kuiper type of .280 hitter.

I don’t think wishing Ruiz hits for a higher average is like saying: “if only Carlos Ruiz hit better, he’d be a better hitter.” It’s a recognition that Ruiz is fairly valuable when he hits .250 and he’d be an all-star if he hits .280 some year. That’s a valid point in my view.

I remember Charlie Manuel said in the off-season the Phils had guys who were capable of hitting .300 and he was disappointed that none of them did last season. A lot of folks got all outraged that Manuel said that and concluded that Manuel didn’t know what he was talkiing about because batting average isn’t important blah,blah, blah. Really? Manuel has had the best offensive teams in the league over the last few years. I think he knows a little about scoring runs. It’s like we can get all wrapped up in the Vorp; EQA; OPS + things and have this knee-jerk reaction to anyone who mentions batting average or RBIs or W/L record.

But those things are important too if you understand what they are and don’t get too wrapped up in them. And wishing Ruiz hit .280 some year makes perfect sense to me.

by smitty99 on Sep 23, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you don’t like Jayson Werth, WE GET IT.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 22, 2009 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice find…

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Sep 22, 2009 8:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Beane count

Your analysis is very similar to the Beane Count, although replacing homeruns with strikeouts (which is what my memory had the stat as, but apparently that’s wrong).

by David S. Cohen on Sep 22, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

double plays

the number one and two guys in all time GIDP are: Cal Ripken, and Hank Aaron. It means you blister the ball. Sometimes they find a infielder.
Good article!

by charladan on Sep 22, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It also means you had a long career, which is hard to do unless you’re good.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 22, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and probably played more years while your talent declined noticeably because you were chasing records and were a hometown fixture/legend who couldn’t run to first like you used to.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 22, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unearned runs

Another thing the Phillies do very well is catch and throw the ball. They have allowed the fewest unearned runs in the league. This is something that is kinda ignored but is pretty important in my view.

Unearned runs don’t show up in ERA but still show up on the scoreboard and still contribute to losses. Allowing few unearned runs is a huge advantage in my view.

by smitty99 on Sep 22, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Home Runs

pretty simple

by Mgarv002 on Sep 22, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, it’s not that simple.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 22, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davey Lopes

My moniker aside, and independent of the fact that BOWA THREW HIM OUT IN 1977 GODDAMMIT, this is an appreciation of what he’s been able to do for the Phillies and their baserunning. It is a delicate balance to strike between being too silly and agressive on the bases and playing it too conservatively, and Lopes manages to get the tone right. Our 3B coach, esp. this year, has been unnoticeable, tending toward conservative.

For those of you who recalls the fin-de-siecle Phillies, when it came to solid baserunning we had… Scott Rolen. Now we have Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Werth, Ibanez. Heck, Chooch and Howard even get into the act on those “when you least expect it” situations.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 22, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pitching

We often hear how individual wins by a pitcher are not indicative of performance. So perhaps it should not be surprising that this year’s crop of starters, which has performed better overall than they did the last two years, has no pitcher among the top 18 in the NL for wins – Jamie Moyer with 12 is tied for 19th most wins. What I think is unusual is that by the end of the season the team will certainly win over 90 games yet probably no pitcher will have more than 13 wins (if either Moyer or Blanton even reaches that number). That seems unusually low, lower than any team I can remember that won a division title in a full season.
For comparison purposes with other Phillies first-place teams, the previous winners were led by pitchers like Alexander, Roberts, Carlton and Schilling (1915-93). The fewest wins for a team leader in any of those title years was 16 by Carlton in 1978 and 16 by Schilling (also by Tommy Greene) in 1993. The last two years the biggest winners were Hamels with 15 in 2007 and Moyer with 16 last year.
Potential opponents have some of the biggest winners in the NL this year: Cardinals, with Wainwright (18-8) and Carpenter (16-4) and Pineiro (15-11); Rockies, with de la Rosa (15-9) and Marquis (15-11) and Jimenez (14-11); and the Giants with Lincecum (14-6) and Cain (13-7). Interestingly, the Dodgers with Billingsley (12-10) and Wolf (11-6) are like the Phillies in lacking a big winner this season.

by phillyinportland on Sep 23, 2009 2:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

PiP, I saw that the other day and kinda laughed myself.

The Phils are the only team with 4 ten game winners, 6 teams have three and of those only 3 have a shot at joining them with 4. Here’s another little morsel to chew on.
Moyer and Pedro 33 GS 17 W
Happ and Myers 30 GS 12 W
Lee, CHoP,Lopez,Bastardo & Kendrick 28 GS 14 W
Blanton 29 GS 11 W
Hamels 29 GS 10 W

by SmilingJPhilsPhan on Sep 23, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s an interesting breakdown, especially putting the replacement pitchers into the proper slots. Considering that none of those starters has a particularly high number of losses I guess that means there have been a lot of decisions by the bullpen, especially behind Hamels and Blanton. Do those figures just include wins as starter or overall – because I think Moyer, Happ, Park, and Kendrick all have wins out of the bullpen – so that would mean even more than the 24 wins those numbers implied.

by phillyinportland on Sep 24, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs