Phillies Breakfast Links, September 22, 2009: Miami Blues, Reliever Roulette

by WholeCamels on Sep 22, 2009 8:12 AM EDT Comment 14 comments

Phillies' Pedro Martinez hurting his own postseason chances?

Only time will tell, of course, but Manuel may end up with 46-year-old Jamie Moyer back in the rotation. And why not? He got the job done last year and was the Phillies' winningest pitcher when he got moved against his wishes to the bullpen to make room for Martinez.

Can we please outlaw evaluating starting pitchers by their won/lost records?

Rollins continues to excel on defense
Best fielding shortstop in baseball. Hopefully the bat can get hot and stay hot.

Relievers rely on mix of luck and skill
Someone finally figured this out!

2009 Phils compare well to last year's + almost
When the rubber hits the road next month, there's going to be a huge luck component. I can't stress this enough.

Series preview: Phillies at Marlins
Three games in 36 hours. Thanks, NFL!!!

Lee eyes first trip to postseason
I'm kind of surprised he didn't pitch in the 2007 postseason, but there you go.

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No time for complacency...

14 games to go with a nice 8 game lead over the fish. Should be a cakewalk. If past is prologue, however, the Phils need to finish this out with a sense of urgency.

Remaining games:
6 vs Marlins (who swept us last series)
4 vs Houston (who swept us last series)
4 vs Brewers (who took 2 out of 3 last series)

Time to take it to the Fish and get this division locked down.

by Boundforbeach on Sep 22, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In fairness to Moyer, he’s actually pitched pretty well lately.

Maybe he just needs 10 days of rest between starts to be successful.

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Was that why they skipped the off day? I’d been told it was because of some rule in the labor agreement. If it was because of football, that’s pretty annoying. I like football too, but this is September.

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Reliever article

I was so pissed when I read that article about relievers on Sunday. Not one mention of “small sample size.” I should learn to have lower expectations.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 22, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Moyer won’t do well against the teams we’ll see in the playoffs.

I don’t even really think he should be on the postseason roster, but there’s no chance Manuel will leave him off. And to be fair it’s unlikely he’ll be kept at the expense of someone who clearly “should” be on there, given health issues as well as the lack of that Bourn-like guy who’d be a nice last position player.

by dajafi on Sep 22, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For whatever it’s worth, his lifetime numbers vs. the guys in the Cardinals lineup are actually quite good on the whole

His numbers vs. the Rockies, on the other hand, are TERRIBLE. That doesn’t include the great game he through in the ’07 DS, but still.

by taco pal on Sep 22, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I may be dense

But what does this mean? (From the article about Rollins’ defense.)

The thing about him is … Dallas [Green] says it best. He’s a two-out shortstop. If the ball is caught, the guy is out."

By the way, I know that Rollins’ performance as measured by the various advanced defensive metrics have caught up to his reputation, but do any of them have him as the best SS in baseball?

by phatj on Sep 22, 2009 11:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No

In fact this season, both UZR and the Dewan +/- have him back just above the middle of the pack again after being #1 last season.

Of course, these stats have some pretty big flaws still. Dewan says you should use a three year average to get the best reading of a guys defensive skill. But these stats will improve quite a bit once they start using the latest technology (as soon as next season maybe?).

One interesting thing regarding Pedro Feliz and Dewan’s +/- system. Feliz was fantastic in this system with the Giants. He’s been good but not great with the Phils. I’m thinking the change in teams has something to do with it.

When you further delve into his chart, you see Feliz is fantastic going to his right and not good straight on or to his left. This is very different from when he was a Giant where he was a + fielder in all three. I think this indicates that positioning or team mates or pitching staffs or all three have something to do with defensive stats. I certainly have no complaints regarding Feliz’ or Rollins defense this season and don’t see a huge difference between this season and last in Rollins case.

Defensive stats will get better. Right now I believe watching the games and using the stats gives you a pretty good idea regarding this issue. And I think it’s pretty safwe to say the Phils’ infield defense is pretty durn good.

by smitty99 on Sep 22, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can we please outlaw evaluating starting pitchers by their won/lost records?

Driving around on friday AM I heard Bob Pecozzi (sp?) who’s a regular on ESPN radio doing the score updates saying that he couldn’t give the CYA to Greinke because he only has a W/L of 12-8. “who cares what your ERA is if you’re only winning 60% of your games….I’d give it to Sabathia over him on W/L alone”.

My head exploded.

by Bilzo on Sep 22, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lee didn’t pitch in the playoffs in 2007 because he was pretty terrible most of the season, including a brief stint at AAA. Not too shabby to come back & win the Cy Young the next year.

*sigh*

by zempf on Sep 22, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Only time will tell, of course, but Manuel may end up with 46-year-old Jamie Moyer back in the rotation. And why not? He got the job done last year and was the Phillies’ winningest pitcher when he got moved against his wishes to the bullpen to make room for Martinez.

He barely “got the job done.” He was the worst playoff starter.

by SJPhillyVT on Sep 22, 2009 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs