Piecing Together a Playoff Bullpen

by dajafi on Sep 23, 2009 12:21 PM EDT

For a team with a very comfortable lead, its best rotation in years and a lineup featuring five all-stars, the Phillies are heading toward October with a good deal of uncertainty. The concern is pretty much entirely bound up in a bullpen that statistically hasn’t been awful, but has a volume of health and effectiveness question marks that would be a lot for a middling team in March, let alone a legitimate championship hopeful as the calendar turns to autumn.

With a dozen games left, trying to figure out the Phillies’ playoff bullpen right now is an exercise in "If/Then" statements: each verdict on a pitcher’s health impacts the next three guys in the pecking order.

Unless I'm missing something, there are 15 possible non-starting pitchers:

Righthanders: Clay Condrey, Chad Durbin, Kyle Kendrick, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, Pedro Martinez, Brett Myers, Chan Ho Park, Tyler Walker

Lefthanders: Sergio Escalona, Scott Eyre, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, J.C. Romero, Jack Taschner

Of these 15, incredibly, the only more or less completely healthy guys are Durbin, Kendrick, Lidge, Madson, Walker, Escalona and Moyer. Happ (side strain) and Martinez (sore neck), currently the #4 and #5 starters, are both scheduled to pitch against the Brewers this weekend; if both are healthy, who starts and who relieves in October will be determined by other factors. Myers (lat strain), Park (hamstring), and Romero (forearm) all might or might not be back in action before the end of the regular season; if so, their performance in games which likely will have little other significance might be tantamount to auditions for the playoffs. Eyre, whose problem is a "loose body" in his left (pitching) elbow, is as healthy as he’ll get until offseason surgery; the question is whether he’ll be able to snap off sliders with enough bite to be effective against dangerous lefty hitters like Todd Helton, Brad Hawpe, Andre Ethier and Rick Ankiel.

Here’s what we know:

Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge will be on the playoff roster
Whichever of Martinez and Happ isn’t the #4 starter will be in the bullpen. If both Romero and Eyre are deemed unavailable, it’s likely that Happ will pitch in relief while Martinez starts… unless Martinez can’t go, and/or Charlie Manuel concludes that the struggles of the Rockies and Cardinals against lefties outweigh other considerations.
Walker probably has pitched himself onto the roster.
Moyer has a skill set and style that probably rules him out for a short relief role. But it’s entirely possible that Manuel, who reveres the 46 year-old junkballer, won’t will carry him on the playoff roster anyway.
A combination of poor performance and poor health renders it extremely unlikely that either Durbin or Taschner will see the field in the postseason.

Conclusion: If everyone were completely healthy and sentimentality weren't a factor, this would be fairly easy: the playoff bullpen would be Lidge, Myers and Madson as the short relievers (putting aside for the moment which of those three should be doing what), Romero and Eyre as the situational lefties, Park as the multi-inning swingman, and Happ or Martinez as the long man. Of course, this is far from the case. It seems likely that one of Romero and Eyre won't be ready for the first round at least; in the absence of an obvious alternative, my guess is that Moyer will make the roster. If one of Park or Myers can’t go, that might open the door for Condrey, who seems recovered from his oblique problem, or Kendrick, who has been effective since his last recall. If both the veteran lefties are out, there's a chance Escalona might get a shot, but Manuel seems leery of the rookie in big spots (and his poor performance in garbage time against the Marlins on Tuesday couldn't have helped). That almost certainly locks Happ into the situational-lefty role, and could lead to opportunity for Condrey or Kendrick.

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Comments

Happ as LOOGY

Solid analysis, there’s a lot to ponder in there. Anyone have Happ’s splits handy? Is he really suited to a lefty situational role?

by irons21 on Sep 23, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

good question

His splits suggest he’s a bit tougher on lefties, maybe enough to make a difference in a big spot. That said, I’d probably start him in a Game Four if we wind up seeing the Rockies (with the option of using him in a situational relief role in Games One or Two, ensuring at least two days between a relief appearance and that start).

I’d meant to look at that in the piece and just forgot—thanks for asking.

by dajafi on Sep 23, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Last comment — sorry, I’m not letting anyone else get a word in edgewise — but what are your thoughts on the school of thought that Pedro won’t make an effective reliever because he’s consistently struggled in the 1st inning this year (1.096 OPS against)?

by PhillyFriar on Sep 23, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

It could be different if he doesn’t have to pace himself though, I think. I would imagine that Chan Ho Park had poor first-inning stats as a starter too.

Also, I guess those stats could just be random noise.

by taco pal on Sep 23, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s probably a good chance that they’re random noise, but I have friends who are Mets fans who talk about how Pedro used to top out at 83 (and got lit up) as he got his legs under him in the 1st inning last year. The velocity hasn’t been as markedly different this time around, but I can’t shake the idea of Pedro’s 1st inning bugaboo from my mindset.

Good point though… it’d certainly be interesting to see how Pedro would look in 1 or 2 inning stints, when he could just rear back and let it go.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 23, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Happ isn’t so much a LOOGY or a situational lefty as much as he a guy who can retire both left-handed and right-handed hitters. If he’s ticketed for the bullpen, I would urge Charlie to use him much like he had been using Park: as the bullpen’s actual “ace.” That is, maybe he comes in to pitch to Todd Helton or Andre Ethier in a big spot, or maybe he takes the ball from the starter after 6 innings and gets us to the 9th — whatever the situation dictates.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 23, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

It's kind of a mess, huh?

I think you’ve got it right, and I also realized while reading this that I’m an idiot and completely miscounted in my guess in Wawa’s fanpost.

We’ve heard nothing about Romero lately, and Park won’t be able to even begin rehabbing for at least another week, so I’d venture to guess that they won’t be making it. Myers seems touch-and-go, but based on the tone of Will Carroll’s piece from the other day, it seems like the organization thinks he’s got a decent shot to rejoin the pen.

Completely agreed that Jamie’s coming along for the ride (incidentally, I think you mean “will” instead of “won’t” in that bullet point). I love the guy, but it’s quite frankly a waste of a roster spot. As far as actual situational lefties go… as I said above, I really doubt Romero will be back, and based on how he’s pitched in limited appearances this year, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. If Eyre also can’t go, then Happ almost has to go to the bullpen, and while it would be nice to carry a second lefty, I’d go with Walker or Condrey before I’d get desperate and reach for Escalona. And I know I sound like a broken record, but where the hell has Antonio Bastardo been? I’d give him a shot before I’d turn to Escalona as well.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 23, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

Romero news.

by taco pal on Sep 23, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoops, I take that back then. Thanks for that link — I should have read that article earlier, as it paints a much different picture of Park and Myers than my wild assumptions above.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 23, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I was under the impression that they thought Park was coming along okay—might get into game action before the end of the season. He could be the key to the whole thing.

I agree with you about Romero, though (kind of like with Lidge) it’s difficult to let go of the memory of how effective he was last October.

And you were right about the mis-wording in the bullet point—now fixed. I do think it’s possible that Moyer will be the 12th pitcher; dumb as I believe carrying 12 would be for a five-game series, I also can’t identify a clearly better choice as a 14th position player. Personally I’d go with Mayberry as a weapon against lefty relievers, but I doubt Manuel will.

by dajafi on Sep 23, 2009 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s interesting to see so many bloggers complaining about Charlie considering taking Moyer into the post season. Maybe that’s why Charlie is the manager, and the bloggers are bloggers.

by fan since late 40's on Sep 23, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

What does that make you?

by phatj on Sep 23, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

an observer

by fan since late 40's on Sep 23, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

It’s a mild complaint. If there were someone I was sure would be more useful, I’d have said so.

My guess is that your argument boils down to the idea that not bringing Moyer would have some negative effect on morale. As usual, I can’t even engage too deeply with that argument; it’s a matter of faith, and is generally the case with such questions, it’s real enough for those who believe. Since Charlie probably believes, Moyer probably suits up for the playoffs.

by dajafi on Sep 23, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Well stated.

by fan since late 40's on Sep 23, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

and I don’t know how as a manager you can sign a guy at 46 to make a contribution to a club that just won the WS and not try real hard to take him back again, particularly as he changed roles (only bellyaching once) and got results doing so.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 23, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions