Watching the Phillies With Lidge on the Mound is Like Banging My Head Into a Needle-Covered Wall . . . Very Forcefully
Charlie Manuel: "There will always be things that make us think of last year. Like, for instance, if you look at the pictures on the wall. There is the fact that we won. But at the same time, the celebration comes to an end. These are memories, but the game goes on."
Charlie Manuel: "[Lidge] and Madson that’s what we’ve got in the back of our bullpen. He was our closer last year and he’ll be our closer now."
So which is it Charlie? We have to forget about next year and move on because this year is different (as you said in April when the Phillies were scuffling)? Or do you continue to go with a guy who is putting up a historically bad season this year solely because he was good last year (as you said yesterday after Brad Lidge blew his 11th save of the season)?
This insanity with Brad Lidge is well documented, and I gave you much of the important statistics in the linked story from Monday. So all I'll do here is just update them to include last night's game (as well as a hold that I left off of Monday's calculations):
In 43 save-situation appearances this season, Lidge now has 31 saves, 11 blown saves, and 1 hold. (The hold is from September 8, when Lidge entered the game to start off the 9th with a 2 run lead but was pulled after facing 4 batters: single, groundout, hit by pitch, walk (including a wild pitch).) Luckily, the Phillies were able to win 3 of Lidge's 11 blown saves. But, imagine if he had saved 5 of those remaining 8 -- the Phillies would now be 93-58 with a .616 winning percentage, good for second in baseball behind only the Yankees. Had he been perfect in those 8 like he was last year (asking a lot, yes, but just for comparison), the Phillies would have the best record in baseball at 96-55 (a .637 winning percentage compared to the Yankees' .635).
In those 43 appearances, Lidge now has a 7.78 ERA and an 8.77 RA. That last number is stultifying -- Lidge gives up just under 1 run per inning in save situations. He has now given up at least 1 run in 21 of his 43 appearances. In 11, he has given up more than 1 run.
As for baserunners, Lidge has a 1.97 WHIP in those 43 appearances. When you add in his 1 batter that he hit by a pitch, he has given up exactly 2 baserunners per inning in his 43 save situations. In 24 of his 43 appearances, he has in fact given up 2 or more baserunners. In only 10 of his 43 appearances, has he kept the other team off the basepaths entirely. On Monday I called this a AA performance, but I take that back. This is short-season rookie ball performance.
And yet, because he closed last year, he's our closer this year.
Charlie, how insane are you going to be for the remaining games of the season? And, how painful are you going to make watching baseball for Phillies fans from here on out?
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This is nitpicking, I realize, but the Phillies are 3-8 in Lidge’s blown saves, so if Lidge had 6 blown saves instead of 11, the Phillies would probably have 91 wins or so, not 93.
Good post!
This continued madness called Brad Lidge has got to stop. Al Holland was a good closer in 1983, but we’re not calling him back to close. The results of a Lidge save opportunity have become so predictable that were it any other team it would be comical. One other thought…the only reason his era isn’t HIGHER, is that usually after he gives up a run or 2 the game is over…
Great point
I wonder if there’s some way to take the baserunner situation at the time the game is over and use normal runner/out outcome charts to figure out what his ERA “should” be without the “gift” he’s getting by ending the games early.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
I haven’t looked into it. How easy is that to calculate on one’s own with a customized subset of a player’s actual full season data? (I.e., I have his save situation stats and not his entire season stats.)
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe it’s the exact same formula as DICE (defense-independent component ERA), only I believe you add 3.20 instead of 3 to the result of the quotient.
I should add: I didn’t test that to make sure it checks out entirely. I think the 3.20 could be a control variable that shifts slightly from year-to-year, but I’m not sure on that.
That's my understanding
After reading a bit about it, it seems that FIP has a secret-sauce number that is added at the end that is about 3.20 but can vary.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Lidge's ERA by month
April: 7.27
May: 7.98
June: 6.75
July: 5.91
August: 6.75
September: 10.80
Pre-ASB: 7.03
Post-ASB: 8.87
This won’t get better. It’s actually getting worse, and the degree of difficulty is gonna go up sharply in two weeks, assuming we get that far.
Our hopes for the postseason (assuming they get there) are for awesome starting pitching (entirely possible) and great hitting (entirely possible) eliminating the need for lock-down late inning relief.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
There will probably be one or two close games but if the others are blowouts,
thanks to great pitching and hitting, then we might not have to worry as much about the back of the pen.
by SmilingJPhilsPhan on Sep 24, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the problem
1 or 2 games matter a lot more in a 5 or 7 game series than they do over the course of 162.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
The sad thing is that no one is even bothering to play the devil’s advocate role at this point. The entire Philadelphia fanbase understands that someone — anyone — would be a better bet to pitch the 9th inning at this point, and Charlie is the only one who doesn’t seem to grasp that.
Not that it makes any sense, but I still hear some “who is the better option? Madson wasn’t much better in his chances” and “Lidge is the only one with a closer’s mentality” arguments. Its honestly more frustrating to me to know that Charlie is not alone.
In another vein: can you imagine being a player on this team? It must be the epitome of frustration to watch your manager put your team in a position to lose time and time again after the other 24 guys have all done enough to get so close to winning. I wonder how the pitchers in the pen have grown to dread that call in the 8th… Oi.
The problem is one of definitions and roles and the concept of the ‘closer’ mentality….relief pitchers are supposed to come in and get outs and not give up hits or runs – it’s their job – so all relievers should have the same ‘mentality’ and the closer mentality is the same…
So there’s a bullpen FULL of options right now including an extra starting pitcher
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Sep 24, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
"Closer Mentality?"
Yeah…I was thinking the same thing.
What is so different from the role of the 8th inning man and the 9th inning man (or any other 1 inning relief)? It would seem that the job is the same, “Go out there and get 3 outs.”
Does the 8th inning man really go out there thinking, “I can relax, it does not matter if I blow the lead, because we can get it back in the 9th?” I don’t think so.
Who is healthy and confident and can get 3 outs?
Seems like that is who should close.
I know how some of you disdain the worldwide leader, but BBTN
mentioned that same argument some weeks ago. A relief pitcher is called into a game to get outs and sometimes those important outs are in the sixth or seventh inning. Say, for instance, sixth inning and your starter is fading, two runners on and two already in with a two run lead. Those outs are no less, and maybe more, important then the final three outs of the game.
by SmilingJPhilsPhan on Sep 24, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree wholeheartedly, and I think any right-thinking, stat-minded fan would. Unfortunately, pitchers are not very stat-minded, and are certainly not right-thinking. From everything I’ve heard, relief pitchers are the worst when it comes to serious delusions, if not mild insanity.
With that in mind, there might be some credence to this ‘closer mentality’ nonsense, if only because pitchers think it’s true. The placebo effect is well documented…
But you can’t tell who has it or who doesn’t (if it exists) without giving them a shot – and running lidge out there in these ‘meaningless’ regular season games prevents determining if there is a better option right now – which is why they gotta start looking now (or a month ago) for someone who they can have confidence in
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Sep 24, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
In response to Steve J.
Frustrating like when Curt Schilling would put a towel over his head when Mitch Williams pitched? (I tried to find a photo but nothing came up.)
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think nail-covered wall would be more logical.
by philiafan14364 on Sep 24, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Very nice article about Lidge in this week's SI
pretty much how everyone else is being an ass (Serena, Kayne, etc) and NOT Lidge.
But yeah I agree with you whenever Lidge is on the mound you need TUMS
So he's a nice guy
But that doesn’t win games.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
What's wrong with letting Lidge pitch now?
Nothing. The games are meaningless, unless you want to figure that there’s some chance that homefield advantage would really make a difference or could even be obtained at this point.
Lidge’s failures to date are a sunk costs. Why not let him pitch now? Maybe he’ll come out of it. If not, he’s been given every chance, and the team leaves him off the post-season roster and moves on. Nobody on the team can be upset (even Lidge).
Prepping for a closer role between now and the end of the year isn’t likely to make a difference for Madson (the likeliest option, IMHO) – he has already been pitching in substantially similar role for a while now. Myers is hurt and shouldn’t be pitching right now, if you’re thinking that’s the way to go.
I agree that: the decision to sit Lidge should have been made and should have been made earlier this year. At this point I think it makes sense to let him finish the year and hope for a miracle. If no miracle, then use someone else in the playoffs. It’s not like we’ll have a “seasoned closer” anyway, unless it is Lidge. Any possible “seasoning” between now and then is likely to be de minimis at best anyway.
In any case, I’m irritated that he sucks, but if he pitches right now he’s not hurting the team, really. (Plus, it’s 1:10 right now and the game starts a little after 8:00).
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 24, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions
I’d still switch it up now because (1) homefield might have some very small benefit for us, which is better than nothing, and (2) even if a miracle occurred, it would happen over such a small number of games that it would be unreliable. But I agree that using him now isn’t unreasonable.
Those who are getting outraged are assuming that Charlie will continue to use Lidge as the closer in the postseason, come hell or high water. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t, but that’s an exercise in mindreading.
And if he pitches right now – charlie hasn’t ‘tested’ anyone else out at closer.
People who keep saying it doesn’t matter if he pitches right now are short sighted in my opinion – if charlie continues to run him out there in closer situations now he will do so in the playoffs now – he’s not SUDDENLY going to switch to a different closer come playoff time – if lidge continues to pitch (and most likely suck) for the rest of the regular season he’ll most likely pitch (and suck) in the playoffs as well…there is no K-Rod on the horizon like the angels had (nor do i think charlie would trust a guy untested come playoff time either)
It does matter if Lidge pitches from now until the end of the season because it means no one else is auditioning for the role of closer (hopefully without the beyond music) and that most likely means Lidge is closer come playoff time.Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Sep 24, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Right now
The reason why right now matters is that the sooner we clinch, the sooner guys can get rest, the rotation can be ordered as needed, etc. I’d rather that happen sooner than later.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a very good write up of the counter argument. One thing I would mention is that the games are unfortunately not quite meaningless yet. As soon as the division is clinched, though, it does make a good deal of sense to keep putting out there to see if he can turn it around.
Taco Pal’s point though, about the 5 game misleading turn around, ie, he hasnt turned it around, may be hurtful. It might be best at this point to just use all the evidence accumulated over the year and say he is done, but even in that case, he may as well pitch these last games with a look toward next year (for him) and also to let the potential new closer get a lot of rest and prepare in whatever flexible way they want too.
Oh, one last thing, relying on beginner’s luck is not such a bad thing in my opinion, as I think the “closer mentatility” if it exists is probably just overcoming the psychological stuff that will occur when you give a walk off home run or something. Someone who hasnt been through this negative aspect of closing, may through ignorance be able to have a “closer’s mentality”, ie, just going out a pitching and not letting pressure/doubt etc. get to you.
Here’s a thought that I don’t think has been mentioned. Let Lidge be a set-up man/closer in the ninth inning until someone gets on base, then put in Walker or Madson or Happ (in the playoffs). Lidge can get people out, he just can’t seem to get three outs before getting into trouble. So in the game vs. Florida, he gives up a double and you put in Walker. Or you say, okay, see if he can get the next guy and you keep him in until he walks Ramirez, then you pull him; but at least he held the lead and got two outs. Maybe someone else can come in and get one out. Do that a few times and Lidge might actually help get through some tough ninth innings without feeling as if he’s totally responsible for losing the game if they can’t hold the lead. It’s probably been decades, but I seem to remember a time when ninth innings were often looked at as a time when multiple pitchers would be used to close out a close game. Might be time for the Phillies to bring back that concept.
by phillyinportland on Sep 25, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions
"Needle-covered wall"
I note that the Professor did not say whether the needles were placed on the wall so that the sharp ends project outward, or whether they would be placed so that the long portion of the needle is parallel to the wall.
I was also a bit confused about whether even a “sharp end out” configuration would actually cause pain if there were enough needles placed closely enough together. I bet that the master yogi version of this probably isn’t really that painful.
I guess academia makes you soft…
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 24, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
I know my limits. My co-bloggers are much better at these colorful expressions than I am, so I usually try to stay away, but I couldn’t resist here since this is so painful.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I figured you were just wisely leaving an out for yourself
via lawyerliness and weasel-wording. I usually do.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 24, 2009 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Physics is phun!
Check out the second video on this site. Even though the nails are sharp, when there are many of them close together, the pressure is distributed over a wider area, so they don’t puncture the skin.
Incidentally, Paul Hewitt (the bearded guy) is the man who wrote the physics textbook (Conceptual Physics) I used in high school, and my high school physics teacher, Marshall Ellenstein, was one of his good friends. Mr. Ellenstein would also walk barefoot on broken glass!
Mr. Ellenstein, Hewitt, and some other guy:

You can’t see it in the photo, but Mr. Ellenstein had really wild curly hair.
That ball hit deep! Way back! You can put it on the boooaaaard...YES!
Long drive into deep right center field! This ball is OUTTA HEEERRRREE!
R.I.P. Harry Kalas 4-13-09
Ok, we all know he sucks. But lets get over the fact that he cant get outs, and try to figure out why it is that he cant get outs.
From what Ive seen, it seems to me that hes afraid to throw his fastball for strikes. This is just a theory, but in the beggining of the year, his velocity was down, and he started getting hit. Do you think that that hurt his confidence in his fastball to the point where now, even though his velocity is the same as it was last year, he is at least somewhat afraid to put a fastball over the plate? His ‘stuff’ looks the same, same bite on the slider, same power pitches, he just isnt locating.
Save why for after the season
At this point, I’m much more concerned with getting him far away from situations that matter than I am in figuring out what’s wrong. That was something the team should have done earlier in the season. Late September is not a good time for that.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 24, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
And therein lies the problem.
His ‘stuff’ looks the same, same bite on the slider, same power pitches, he just isnt locating.
Look at the two pitches which blew the save and lost the game last night – hanging sliders / fastballs over the middle of the plate. Of course the Marlins are going to hit those. Hell, I would hit those. (Not very far, but I’d make contact.)
Last year everything was down or on the corners. His killer pitches last year were the slider in the dirt and the one which one the World Series – looks like a fastball on the outside corner of the strike zone, then dies at the last second. Dude swings and misses. Struck ’eeem ouuuut.
I haven’t seen that pitch nearly as much this year, because he’s been missing with it. I guess the “strike” which was called for Out #2 last night was that pitch, but it wasn’t as sharp as it used to be for sure. He tried to do it on the inside corner with Ramirez and missed by a good deal. We all know what happened after that.
His head’s not right. He never used to look like someone just smacked him on the head with a frying pan, but he does all of the time now. He is stunned out there. It isn’t the look of someone who knows how to get three outs in rapid succession.
I’ll admit that I want us to make the playoffs almost to save face. We’re not going to be blowing teams out of the water if / when we get there. We’ll have good starting pitching, but so will the other playoff teams. Combine that with the shaky back-end of our bullpen and now you’ve got worry.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
Actually didn’t the BP article indicate that the slider and fastball have some differences that didn’t exist last year?
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Sep 24, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I thought the release point on the slider for strikes and fastball were indentical last year so hitters didn’t know what they were getting until it was too late. The article I read said one of the pitches (fastball, I think) is now coming in higher so they know what’s coming pretty much every time.
Apparently Amaro just said on CSN Philly
That he doesn’t think that Lidge should be the closer at this point, but it’s “up to Charlie”
He suggested a closer-by-committee, which is probably the best we could do at this point.
(heard this info third hand, since I’m at work (and don’t live up in the Philadelphia area anymore anyways)). But just a little wrinkle.
One guy's take on this ...
Sit Lidge down … or move him to the set-up role. Move Madson back to take Romero’s 7th inning role. Put Jamie back in the rotation. And …
Let Pedro close! Seriously … you could call him into the office and say, “Pedro, we need you. Remember those six perfect innings you put up against Cleveland in the ALCS way back when? You can do this, my man. Can you give me one good inning when we need a save? I think you can. I want you on that wall, Pedro. I need you on that wall. We need you to do this in the worst way possible. You’re a Hall of Famer, and if you could pull this off … think Schilling and his bloody sock … imagine how baseball will remember you!”
Pedro won’t be part of the rotation in the playoffs. Not with Hamels, Lee, Blanton, and Happ in front of him. So, play to his ego and get him to be the savior of the season out of the ’pen.
C’mon, Charlie … you know it’s a great idea …
Thinking along the same lines...
Yeah, I was thinking either Happ or Martinez to close. I was thinking Happ might be better to mow ‘em down for 1 inning, but we have the intangibles of Happ’s inexperience vs. Martinez has been there before.
Whichever it is, I was thinking you basically call him in and say I know have the stuff to be a starter, and I know you want to start, but more than that, we want to win. And I believe our best chance to win is if you close for us.




























