Cliff Dive: Brewers 8, Phillies 4
by dajafi on Sep 25, 2009 11:04 PM EDT
16 comments
It looked like a mismatch going in: Cliff Lee, reigning Cy Young Award winner, versus Manny Parra, owner of an Eaton-esque 6.42 ERA. And it was: Lee got hit early, often, and hard by the Brewers, while Parra toyed with disinterested-seeming Phillies hitters en route to an easy win.
Milwaukee scored four first-inning runs, all with two outs, as Prince Fielder singled in Felipe Lopez, Casey McGehee blooped a double to right field, and Mike Cameron blasted a three-run homer to put the home club ahead 4-0. Parra was perfect once through the Phils' lineup, but gave back half the lead in the fourth on an error, a walk, and a hard-hit ball from Ryan Howard that was initially ruled an error on Fielder but later changed to a hit. Fielder got them back plus one in the fifth, however, taking Lee over the wall with two men on for his 43rd home run of the season; his four RBI on the night give him 136--one more than Howard, who picked up a third later in the game.
The Brewers stretched their lead to 8-2 with a run off Brad Lidge in the 7th. The Phils briefly threatened to make a game of it with two runs in the 8th and runners at the corners with none out in the 9th, but Milwaukee closer Trevor Hoffman came on to get pop-ups from Matt Stairs and Jimmy Rollins and a game-ending groundout from Shane Victorino.
With the Braves winning in Washington, the Phillies' magic number remains at four.
0 recs |
16 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
I think were in trouble
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
by Christopher A on Sep 25, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
153 games played
so 9 to play with a 6 game lead. Do the math. It’s over. The Brave won’t catch the Phillies. The Marlins are almost completely dead as of this a.m. Possibilities for the Braves to catch the Phillies include:
Phillies go 3-6; 2-7; 1-8; 0-9 and
Braves go 9-0
or
Phillies go 2-7; 1-8; 0-9
Braves go 8-1
or
Phillies go 1-8; 0-9
Braves go 7-2
or
Phillies go 0-9
Braves go 6-3
That is just not going to happen.
Granted, the Braves gets lots of the Nationals over the last week+, but they also have a set against the Marlins. They aren’t catching the Phillies. Relax. I posted back after the 3 game series sweep at the hands of the Marlins that this division race was over, and I stand by it. Chill, people.
Phillies fans are in need of some serious collective therapy.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 26, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depends how broadly you define trouble. As for clinching the NL East, an 8-1 record is not that ridiculous of a prediction for the Braves considering they play the Nationals 6 of those games. A 2 out of 3 win of the Florida series is also not that far fetched.
The Phillies going 2-7 (or worse) is probably the more far fetched idea, but it is not really beyond the realm of possibility. 1 more win against the Brewers splits that series, which is not really that far fetched, a 1 out of 4 series loss to the Astros is not crazy considering the Phils got swept by them earlier, and then a 3 game sweep by the Marlins to finish it off is not entirely crazy either. All three of those things happening is pretty far fetched, but the fact that each of them independently is not that unlikely is disconcerting.
by Whack8888 on Sep 26, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Phillies fans are in need of some serious collective therapy.
Can you blame those of us who are uncertain? The Braves are red-hot and are playing the Nationals 6 times. That’s enough to wipe out the 6-game lead in and of itself. Plus, being fans of Philadelphia sports as we are, we’re used to futility.
I just don’t like the timing of our playing the Astros and Marlins now. The Astros killed our playoff chances back in the day, and the Marlins are always tough. Besides, the Marlins helped us the last two years in a row by beating the Mets in the last weekend series of the season. I know the Mets aren’t in it now, but I could easily see us needing one win against the Marlins to clinch and not getting it.
9 to play with a 6 game lead. Do the math. It’s over. The Brave won’t catch the Phillies. The Marlins are almost completely dead as of this a.m.
The true parts of that statement are:
- 6 games up with 9 to play;
- Marlins are almost out of the running (any combination of 2 wins by us or 2 losses by them means that they’re done).
The untrue part:
- Do the math. It’s over.
You yourself did the math and showed three possible ways in which the Braves could catch the Phillies. So no, it’s not over at all. The one thing that Wheels said which I agree with is that you don’t’ celebrate until your magic number is one, then you go out and win the game.
If we win tonight and the Braves lose, then I’ll feel better. We need to take care of business, because the Braves could EASILY go 9-0, 8-1, 7-2, or 6-3 and we could EASILY go 3-6, 2-7, 1-8, or 0-9.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Sep 26, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
I wrote:
You yourself did the math and showed three possible ways in which the Braves could catch the Phillies.
I was wrong. That should have said, “You yourself did the math and showed ten possible ways in which the Braves could catch the Phillies.”
A lot scarier than three, no?
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Sep 26, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think you understand how probability works.
by taco pal on Sep 26, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go ahead and worry about it.
I’ll live an extra twenty years. It’s a fucking game.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Sep 26, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not over
At least not for the Braves. What helps make the Braves dangerous is that they have more to play for than the outside chance of catching the Phillies – they are only down by three in the loss column to the Rockies and have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs if they could finish 8-1. That would mean the Phillies have to win at least three of their last nine to clinch first place. There is no guarantee that will happen. There have been two times earlier this season when the team stumbled for periods of nine or more games. The most obvious was the 1-8 homestand vs. the AL East in June followed by a 3-6 record in the next three series. And there was also the stretch in late July-early August when they lost 8 of 11, mostly to SF and Florida. Like you said, the team needs to take care of business. You don’t want to start the final homestand still needing three wins to clinch and you certainly don’t want to enter the final weekend needing a win over Florida.
by phillyinportland on Sep 26, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly my point.
Probability be damned. It’s entirely possible for us to go 3-6 or worse right now.
Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?
by mikefive on Sep 26, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lidge
I know this isn’t one of the Lidge posts but I felt like mentioning one of the interesting differences in Lidge’s performances on the road vs. at home. Simply put, on the road, one-run games especially, it’s almost a given that it’s going to be walk-off time for the home team. But of Lidge’s 11 blown saves, only the first one, back on April 18th, took place at Citizens Bank Park. That’s right, only one blown save at home all year for Brad Lidge. He has one non-save situation loss at home on a ninth-inning run vs. the Reds, but other than that he’s done half-decent at home: 16 saves in 17 opportunities. Of those 16 saves, only in the one two weeks ago vs. the Mets did Lidge give up two runs. There were 11 scoreless saves (3 to preserve a one-run win) and four times where he gave up one run. Of the 17 chances at home, six came with three-run leads. The others came with a one- or two-run lead.
Besides his save situations, Lidge hasn’t pitched that much in front of the home crowd, only 12 other times by my count. There were a few bad outings thrown in, like giving up a run in the top of the ninth in a close game twice in May and a couple of bad three-run innings in blow-out games, but there were also a couple of ties preserved in games the Phillies won in extra innings, and the overall effect I see is maybe one game at worst where Lidge cost the team a victory.
So if that covers 29 games at home that Lidge has done okay in, that means his 34 games on the road have been terrible and maybe all the talk about tipping pitches and mechanics really comes down to the fact that if Lidge walks out to the mound knowing a few runs means certain defeat he is just unable to handle that pressure. What might have started out as a few isolated experiences vs. the Yankees and the Dodgers, has now become a 50-50 chance of losing. Since mid-August, on the road he has five blown saves, all in one-run games, and five saves, one in a one-run game and the other four in three-run games (gave up runs in two of those). At home he’s different – his last five appearances at home have been saves. It looks like the team’s thinking has changed on Lidge in the last 48 hours. Maybe one thing to look at is keeping him on the bench on the road and in the mix at home.
by phillyinportland on Sep 26, 2009 3:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
how strange.
so the operational theory is that his confidence is shot. How else to explain this difference? He can only perform if he knows there’s a safety net of another 3 ABs behind him.
by Wet Luzinski on Sep 26, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His ERA at home is still pretty poor though, so I don’t think this explains everything.
Home: 28.2 IP, 32 H, 21 ER, 5 HR, 12 BB, 32 K, 6.59 ERA
by taco pal on Sep 26, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree it doesn’t explain everything, maybe doesn’t explain anything, just that on the whole, despite the bad ERA at home he has actually done what’s needed most of the time: he closed out the wins, kept the team in a few other games and usually walked off the field after a win – unlike his performance on the road. WL, I don’t know if it’s more that his confidence is shot or just some combination of factors including lack of faith that he’ll get the job done when he steps on the mound on the road in a one-run game. I meant to point out earlier that all the blown road saves back to a Yankees game in May are from one-run situations. He hasn’t blown a two-run lead, home or away, except for that game and one vs. the Nationals earlier in May. These ongoing troubles have probably affected two other major parts of the situation: I imagine the Phillies fielders are less sure of themselves now when Lidge comes in and that could cause errors or mental mistakes. And, by now I think opposing teams are licking their chops if they see Lidge out there in the ninth inning, and that extra confidence that they’ll see something good to hit could be the difference between making a quick out and waiting for a walk or a mistake.
by phillyinportland on Sep 26, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on The Good Phight
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
