Perpetually living in a state of anxiety is no way to spend the next couple of weeks, to say nothing of your life.

I’m not living in a state of anxiety, and I’m not losing any sleep over this. I’m just saying that a collapse would really suck, and that – contrary to public opinion – it’s entirely possible.

Your factual justification for your position here is fascinating… a Dave Bush performance from April (bear in mind 3 of his 5 September starts have been pretty awful), a 4 year combined record against the Astros (the 2005 Phillies employed 2 pitchers that are currently on our roster), and the venerable Larry Andersen’s colorful thoughts on the outlook for the last series against the Marlins (Larry has also authored such gems this year as ‘That sky is… weird’ and ‘When they wave those towels I feel like I’m in a snowglobe!’.

When some website says the Phillies odds of making the playoffs are 99.7%, that means that a statistical model has been run, and in 3 of 1000 possible outcomes, the Phillies miss the cut. This is not speaking with a sense of entitlement or false confidence – this is a fact. People who use far more sound predictors of performance than a Dave Bush start from over 5 months ago say that a collapse is almost a statistical impossibility. So if you’d like to worry about things that have a a 3 in 1000 chance of happening, you should really think about being hit by a bus or developing pancreatic cancer. Most of us choose to ignore statistical improbabilities in favor of things that are far more likely to happen.

As far as your other allegation goes:

Given our play down the stretch, it’s not bloody likely that we’ll be WFC this year – assuming we get to the playoffs.

How many times must you be told that a 5 game series is a probabilistic crapshoot? The feeling that we’re “just not getting things done down the stretch” has no bearing on our actual performance when our opponent and the import of the games change entirely.

You can have your own position on this, and feel free to say you told us so if the Phillies in fact don’t make the playoffs. Just don’t act like you’re some kind of prophet warning us of the inevitable when you really just have a crackpot obsession right now.

As bad as it might seem to lose four out of five and a quick three games off the lead, I still like the chances this year much better than I did the last two years. Just to compare how different things are now, this is where the team was after 154 games the last two years.
2007: record of 84-70, 1.5 games behind both the Mets and the Padres (for the Wild Card lead). Had just won a game over Washington (by Adam Eaton!) while the Mets had just beaten the Marlins behind Pedro Martinez. And despite winning only 5 of the last 8 games they won by a game over the Mets, who won only three of their last nine.
2008: record of 86-68, .5 games behind the Mets, but 2 games ahead of Milwaukee for the Wild Card lead. Brett Myers had just gotten hammered by the Marlins in a 14-8 loss while the Mets beat Atlanta to knock the Phillies out of first after three exciting days with the lead. Of course, that ended well, when the Phillies went 6-2 while the Mets went 3 and 6 again.
One final thought: this being the 154-game mark means this is the number of games in a full season before 1962. The 2009 Phillies are 89-65. It gives a little more perspective to the records of some of the old-time pennant winners, like the 1950 Phillies who won “only” 91 games. 91 wins would look pretty good right now.

1. This is a blog – a blog where one posts opinions. My opinion was that I did not like the direction the Phillies were headed in, especially since the team behind them was on a tear. Keep in mind that this post is full of words like “might” and “possible,” not “will” and “definite.” I was expressing an opinion. Relax.

2. Re: the Dave Bush comment, how many mediocre pitchers have the Phillies made look like Cy Young lately? Manny Parra? Anibal Sanchez? Look through the posts and I’m sure you can find a comprehensive list. Obviously the pattern didn’t hold today (thank God) but it wouldn’t have been the first time we made a lousy pitcher look good.

3. LA isn’t exactly a Rhodes scholar, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be right about some things. Hypothetically speaking, say we still had a magic number of 2 going into the Marlins series. You can’t tell me you’d be comfortable in that position. I can’t find the Phillies’ all-time record against the Marlins, but it’s probably not too far from 50-50, especially in recent years.

4. Regarding the Astros, look at the first two comments from the recap of today’s game. I’m obviously not the only one uncomfortable about playing the Astros.

5. I have no desire or intention to be “a prophet of doom” and I don’t want to have to say “I told you so,” believe me. I want the Phillies to make the playoffs and repeat, obviously. Just because I had a bad feeling about the way things were going does NOT make me have “a crackpot obsession.” Please.

But I’ll admit that I should have ended the original post on a more straightforward note, to wit: We need to take care of our own business, because if not, we could be in trouble.The bullpen has not been good of late, and we’re still leaving lots of guys on base in scoring position. Meanwhile, the Braves have been beating up on the Nats, whom they play 4 more times. We have the tougher schedule and have not been playing as well as we can, when ideally we should be at or close to top form.

I did get a kick out of Taco Pal’s reply, though, so thanks for that. And thanks to phillyinportland for offering a different viewpoint without resorting to hurling insults. It’s possible to disagree and be civil, folks.