Limping Into the Playoffs: Does Momentum Matter?

by David S. Cohen on Sep 29, 2009 2:39 PM EDT

I'm still working with the more than reasonable assumption that the Phillies are going to be in the playoffs. Once we get into the playoffs though, does it matter that we might wind up limping across the finish line? After all, the Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games (after winning 9 of 11, which seems like decades ago) and show no signs of improving, especially considering they're playing the Astros for the next three games, a team that has dominated the Phillies for the last several years.

So does momentum going into the playoffs matter?

To get a sense of the answer to that question, I've looked at the last five post-seasons. I've tallied each post-season team's record for the last 7 and last 21 games of the season.

First, here are the best teams in the last 7 games of the season over the last five years and that team's results in the playoffs:

Year	Team	Record	Result
2004	Astros	7-0	Lost NLCS
2005	Angels	6-1	Lost ALCS
2006	Dodgers	7-0	Lost NLDS
2007	Rockies	6-1	Lost World Series
2008	Brewers	6-1	Lost NLDS

Only one of the teams with the best record over the last 7 games made it to the World Series. Two didn't make it out of the first round, and the other two exited in the second round. Positive momentum sure didn't seem to help these teams.

What about struggling over the last 7 games? Here's the chart of the worst teams over the last 7 games (with three tied in 2008):

Year	Team	Record	Result
2004	Cardinals	2-5	Lost World Series
2005	Braves	2-5	Lost NLDS
2006	Tigers	2-5	Lost World Series
2007	Diamondbacks	2-5	Lost NLCS
2008	Dodgers	3-4	Lost NLCS
2008	Cubs	3-4	Lost NLDS
2008	Angels	3-4	Lost ALDS

These teams did only marginally better as two got to the World Series, although neither won. All in all, the best and the worst teams over the last 7 games of the season seemed to have no real difference in post-season results.

What about expanding the timeframe to see if momentum can be built up over a longer period? Here's the chart of the best teams over the last 21 games of the season for each of the last five years. Again, there's a tie in 2008:

Year	Team	Record	Result
2004	Astros	15-6	Lost NLCS
2005	Yankees	16-5	Lost ALDS
2006	Padres	15-6	Lost NLDS
2007	Rockies	16-5	Lost World Series
2008	Phillies	15-6	Won World Series
2008	Angels	15-6	Lost ALDS

Thanks to last year's Phillies, there's some more success here, as two of these teams went to the World Series, and the Phillies won it in 2008. But, the 2008 Angels, with the same 21-game momentum as the Phillies, exited in the first round, as did the 2005 Yankees and 2006 Padres. Having the best 21-game record is no guarantee of success.

On the flipside, the worst 21-game record might be some indicator of a problem. Here's the chart for these teams (again with a tie in 2008):

Year	Team	Record	Result
2004	Dodgers	10-11	Lost NLDS
2005	Braves	9-12	Lost NLDS
2006	Cardinals	8-13	Won World Series
2007	Angels	10-11	Lost ALDS
2008	Brewers	9-12	Lost NLDS
2008	White Sox	9-12	Lost ALDS

Here, with one big exception, we see a pattern. Five of these six worst teams didn't make it out of the first round. However, the 2006 Cardinals throw a big monkey wrench in this pattern, as they had a horrible 8-13 record over their last 21 games but managed to win the World Series.

Of course, this is a very limited sample size, as it's only 5 years of data. But, it does show that momentum does not guarantee a successful post-season run. And, it also shows that struggling to finish the season is no absolute bar to going deep into the post-season, even winning the World Series.

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Comments

this is well done, david. insightful.

by ego on Sep 29, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

I’m more concerned with fatigue than momentum. Saw something today about how we have more regulars who have played 150-plus games than any team in the league; they’re exhausted right now, and it’s showing on the field.

Hopefully they’ll stagger over the finish line with enough time to spare that guys like Utley, Feliz, Werth and Victorino can have 4-5 days of solid rest before the playoffs begin. Recent history also suggests that it’s better to clinch late than early (witness the Angels and Cubs last fall), so as dismal as the last week or so has been, there’s still a chance they get the best of all worlds…

by dajafi on Sep 29, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting...

I was noticing in particular that Utley’s and Victorino’s batting averages have fallen-off of late. Was wondering if Utley was hurt, after noticing how his fell-off last year, even though I did not know he was playing hurt.

by JWoody on Sep 29, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

A similar analysis

A similar analysis on our sister Dodgers’ blog comes to the same conclusion here.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 29, 2009 4:34 PM EDT reply actions

In conclusion, nothing matters? Seems sort of nihilistic, don’t you think?

by Michael Levin on Sep 29, 2009 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

We’re a very PoMo blog.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 29, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we can agree that one thing does matter, and this is without fail: scoring more runs than your opponent. Other things might in the post-season, and the folks at BP have tried to figure this out with their book, but you’ll find close to unanimous agreement from the authors of this blog that things like chemistry, knowing how to win, momentum, heart, etc. fall more in the “don’t matter” column than the “matters” column.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 29, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions

David… is there any way of correlating how much of a lead, if any, the various teams had before the playoffs began? If a team wasn’t struggling to make the postseason, they may have perhaps rested key starters in the days and week(s) leading up to the seaon’s last game, thus making it more likely that they lose.

by Boundforbeach on Sep 29, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

The converse may also be true. If a team had to fight to the last day to get in the postseason, they have not have been able to properly set their rotation or rest their starters. Didn’t that happen with Milwaukee and Sabathia a couple of years back?

by Boundforbeach on Sep 29, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn’t that happen with the Phillies two years ago? It literally came down to the last day of the regular season. Who were our playoff starters in 2007? Hamels, Kendrick, and Moyer? I think Moyer did the best job out of all three. But I digress…

Then again, it came down to the second-to-last day of the regular season for the Phils in 2008, and that turned out just fine. Plus, the Rockies and Padres had to play a one-game playoff in 2007, so it came down to the day AFTER the last game of the season, yet the Rockies went to the World Series.

There are probably a number of different ways to slice this argument, but it’s an interesting one. I’d be interested in the answer to BoundforBeach’s question about the size of each team’s lead heading into the final 21 games. It could not have been large for the Cardinals in 2006. They finished 83-78, and the second-place Astros finished 82-80. Still, it would be interesting to see.

Do you see what happens when you find a stranger in the Alps?

by mikefive on Sep 29, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions