Phillies Breakfast Links, September 8, 2009: Sore Happ, Reading's Playoffs, Charlie Mad!

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2009 8:24 AM EDT

Ruiz contributing at, behind plate for Phils

Despite losing four in a row to the Astros, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel has noticed some positives. Manuel likes the way the offense has looked lately, and he is especially pleased with the hitting of catcher Carlos Ruiz.

what

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Manuel fumes after Phillies fall again
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Former Phillies Lou Marson and Carlos Carrasco slated to be starting battery for Cleveland in game one of doubleheader today versus Texas.

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Small ball?

Anybody buying the ongoing suggestions that the Phils are struggling because they rely on the HR far, far too much, and that they don’t effectively play small ball?

by Boundforbeach on Sep 8, 2009 9:08 AM EDT reply actions

Not until someone actually proves it…has anyone actually proved it?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

My suspicion is that explaining offensive failure as a team “not doing the small things right,” like moving runners over, sacrificing them in, etc. is a grasp at straws. These guys have been playing baseball for a long time and they know better than anyone else how important it is to score one run whenever it’s possible. If we look at Jimmy’s or Jayson’s swing now as opposed to the beginning of the season, it only looks like they are trying to hit more home runs now because they are striking out in key situations. They likely aren’t swinging any harder now than they were in May.

I’m right with WC on the HR discussion. Saying a team hits home runs too much is like saying a woman is too good in bed. There’s no downside to them. The swings that produce them are very similar to the swings that produce the sacrifice flies or the liners in the gap that everyone seems to want so much right now.

Our offense is struggling to hit consistently since the All Star break, but I think thats about as deep as the issue goes. We have too many players struggling through relatively cold streaks right now to mount a consistent offensive threat.

by Steve J on Sep 8, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

While I agree that you can’t hit too many HRs, if you’re doing it at the expense of getting on base, then your strategy is amiss.

Howard hits the ball hard just about every time that he doesn’t whiff. Sometimes it leaves the yard, sometimes it’s a liner to first.
Rollins is back in a homer or pop-up stretch and that is related to his swing. He’s not hitting line drives. He has an uppercut swing again, and unless he kills it, it’s a unproductive out.
Werth crushes the ball or whiffs. Poor Man’s Adam Dunn without the walks.

I’m right with WC on the HR discussion. Saying a team hits home runs too much is like saying a woman is too good in bed. There’s no downside to them.

Would you rather have a woman that was insanely awesome in bed but couldn’t do anything else, or how about one that was still really good at it, but also cooked a mean breakfast and did the laundry? (this is soooo chauvenistic, but being done to make a point..)

One trick ponies are relatively easy to defeat. The sad fact is the Phils don’t hit enough homers for that approach to work. If all you do is hit the long ball, it would seem you need to hit 5 solo shots a game to win (since scoring 4 runs is a loss for the phils). Assuming every other AB is an out, you would need to hit 5 HR / 32 PA, or one every 6.4 ABs.

Even in Barroid’s record setting season, he didn’t do that, and the expectation that a team of 9 guys (one of which is the pitcher or Matt Stairs…same thing really) can do it often enough to win more than 58% of its games is insane.

Hitting homers is great. It is good for your team. It helps you win. If nobody is on base, you better hit a hell of a lot of them, or you’re going to lose.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

So – the phillies are a one trick pony.

Again – i see no research backing any of this nonsensical ‘live by the HR die by the HR’ thing.

Is this team so vastly different from last years team that won the world series? Maybe it’s because Pat isn’t here – he liked walks…

Seriously – if they had split 2 in houston – if the pen hadn’t sucked – this conversation – would it be happening?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I object to about 8 things said or implied in the first 3 sentences there.

Along the same lines as what jem is saying – where’s the evidence that a team that hits a lot of home runs, by definition, is bad at getting on base? If that’s not the answer, and your point is just that the Phillies, right now, are bad at getting on base, then how do we make the logical leap that they are in this funk because they are trying to hit too many homers? Your objections to those three players’ swings are entirely anecdotal. Ask any manager in the National league if he’d like a player with Howard’s or Werth’s triple slash line batting in his 3-4-5 hole and see what kind of answer you get.

I’d venture to say the number of home runs we hit is maybe the only reason why we continue to win games when we are having such trouble getting runners on. If all you hit is singles and doubles, you better hit a hell of a lot of them, or you’re going to lose.

by Steve J on Sep 8, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

First…I have no problem with Howard’s performance. Didn’t mean to imply I did, but I can see how you’d take that…my error.

OBP is more the issue, not just swinging for the fences. There is no way for me to prove that Werth or Rollins are over-swinging lately. I’d have to get in their heads and that’s not really possible.

I wish I could find a cut and dry to find out the percentage of runs by the home-run for teams the last 10-15 years, but I can’t.

I’ve said all along, hitting homers is good. The problem isn’t the homers, it’s the lack of OBP going along with the homers.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Don’t let the lack of non aecdotal evidence prevent you from beating this ESPN horse into the ground

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions

well jemagee….feel free to present data to the corollary to show that teams which have a higher percentage of the runs from homers do well in the post-season.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Why?

You’re the one who made the assertion – and you keep making it – and then lament that it’s ‘too hard’ to do the research.

Why should I do your work for you?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn’t make the assertion. I support it.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

With no basis in facts…

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

One of my co-workers (Chris Dial) is going to help me out with this. For the record, the phils have scored 313 of 678 runs via the HR (46%).

League Average is 36%. Phils are 10%age points over the mean. Not sure if it’s a good or bad thing, but we shall see.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

You probably should also look at the historical numbers and their impact on the playoffs if any such exists

And don’t forget to look at the phillies OBP compared to other teams as well as you’ve made that an issue.

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

care to order anything else?

I’ll be ignoring OBP. I support the claim that scoring too high a percentage of runs by the homer is a detriment to a team, akin to an NCAA team relying too heavily on the 3-pt shot. I’ll try to look at league average, range, playoff teams, WS teams, how team with highest % finished each year.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Phils OBP

is 0.333, or 0.002 above league average.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Werth

A poor man’s Adam Dunn is a very fine hitter — Dunn has been one of the best hitters in the league this year.

Also, Werth actually does walk a lot. Not as much as Dunn, but nobody does. But as long as we’re comparing the two, Werth actually makes more contact than does Dunn (and aside from this season, has hit for a somewhat higher average).

by phatj on Sep 8, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Matt Stairs

I don’t want to kick a man when he’s down…but Matt Stairs’s situational stats this year:
Total # of AB: 89
Runners on base: 9 for 51 (0.176), 19K/14BB
RISP: 6 for 30, (0.200) 11K, 14BB
RISP, w/ 2 outs: 2 for 16, (0.125) 7K/7BB

Matt Stairs has been up 112 times this year (didn’t see SF’s in list to adjust for PA…just BB/HBP, so might be a couple more PAs).
65 of those ABs have come with runners on, or 58% of his PAs.

Considering all the crucial situations he’s been up in lately, simply one or two hits by him would probably mean the difference between winning and losing 2 games.

This guy is batting 0.191 on the season. Replace him with somebody hiting 0.250 and we win 4-5 more games I bet.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

If we had better players, wed win more games.

Dobbs is hurt right now, so what other LH pinch hitter do we have?

by philiafan14364 on Sep 8, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

This goes back to Cholly. You put people in situations where they can succeed. Repeatedly marching Lidge back out to protect a one run lead ceases to be Lidge’s fault after a while when he’s demonstrated his inability to do his job, but keeps getting put in the same position.

Having Matt Stairs as the go-to LHPH is NOT working. Repeatedly putting him up there to get a hit when he’s demonstrated he can’t do it isn’t his fault anymore. It’s Manueal’s for putting him up there. Random.AAA guy would be doing better than 0.191.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Just people you put people insituations where they CAN succeed doesn’t mean they will.

They put madson in a closer role and he blew it pretty bad
Myers is just getting back

Who do you think has a BETTER chance of dealing with the ‘pressure of being a closer’ right now?

Lidge is the only realistic option AT THIS TIME…if Myers continues to pitch well then maybe he’s an option – but right now Lidge is the only option

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions

There’s a bunch of other people in that pen that haven’t been tried other than Madson and Lidge.

Eyre, Durbin, Romero, Condrey, Park, Moyer (!).

While some of these guys are hurt, and some are comical, I seriously would’ve given Eyre or Durbin a shot by now.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Yet another reason I’m glad Charlie is the manager

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions

the sky is blue.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes it is – but this wasn’t a assertion with no sanity behind it now is it.

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

You mean like this:

Lidge is the only realistic option AT THIS TIME…if Myers continues to pitch well then maybe he’s an option – but right now Lidge is the only option

HE HAS THE WORST ERA OF ANY PITCHER IN THE LEAGUE!
You’re trying to tell me that THE WORST PITCHER is the Phils only option? That’s a nutjob argument.

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

HE HAS THE WORST ERA OF ANY PITCHER IN THE LEAGUE!

Wanna bet?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Sep 8, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Lidge has an ERA of 7.15 with 50 1/3 IP.

There is ONE worse pitchers who has thrown about the same many innings. Know why? BECAUSE WHEN YOU SUCK, YOU GET DEMOTED. There’s a handful of guys with lower ERAs, but they’ve only thrown about 27 IP MAX because that’s enough for the other managers to say….“this guy just doesn’t have it”

by Bilzo on Sep 8, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions