Raul Ibanez Alters His Approach for 2009

by PhillyFriar on Sep 9, 2009 3:01 PM EDT

There's something interesting that I've noticed in Raul Ibanez's numbers for this year compared to his previous seasons. Put simply, it looks like he's swinging harder. Witness...

Career: 8.6% BB -- 17.1% K -- 45.6% swing -- 81.8% contact -- 37.2% XBH -- .194 ISO

2007: 8.5% BB -- 16.9% K -- 44.9% swing -- 82.3% contact -- 36.5% XBH -- .188 ISO

2008: 9.2% BB -- 17.3% K -- 46.5% swing -- 82.5% contact -- 37.1% XBH -- .186 ISO

2009: 9.2% BB -- 24.1% K -- 43.8% swing -- 73.6% contact -- 50.8% XBH -- .295 ISO

All statistics taken from Fangraphs.

As you can see, not only are Raul's plate discipline and power numbers radically different from his career norms, but it also doesn't even look like he's been trending that way. He's taking more pitches and making less contact, and so he's predictably striking out more -- but he's also had a year-long power surge unlike anything before in his career.

I'm sure a portion of the increased power output can be attributed to moving to Citizens Bank Park -- cue Bobby Cox joke -- but certainly not all of it. Even if we assume that the 3 HRs he hit at CBP that Hit Tracker Online labeled as "just enough" were fly outs elsewhere, the above numbers for 2009 wouldn't really change (only the latter two categories, to 52.2% XBH and .270 ISO).

So what's going on here? Has Raul consciously altered his approach because he's out of Safeco? Has working with Charlie Manuel changed how he approaches hitting in general?

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The fact that the walk rate has held steady surprises me a little bit. If that weren’t the case you could support a lack of plate discipline, which would be an easy assignment.

While I imagine this wouldn’t be easy to do…what was his contact rate pre-ASB (when he was raking)? I suspect that back then it was near his career norm, and in the second half of the season it was a-trocious.

by Bilzo on Sep 9, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

Sorry I hadn’t responded to this… unless someone else knows where to find splits for contact rate (they’re not on Fangraphs), I’m afraid I can’t help. But I think the best way to examine the sample size is in the aggregate — as David noted, we’ve seen cold streaks like this from Ibanez before, but never in a previous season has it dragged his contact rate down to such a level.

by PhillyFriar on Sep 10, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Roids!

No, seriously, I think conscious alteration seems like the best explanation. His motivation for doing that is anybody’s guess, but I’m not complaining.

by taco pal on Sep 9, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions

it depends. If ‘conscious alteration’ led to his second half suckitude (pre-last 2 games), then I’ll complain.

I seriously suspect his contact numbers held constant with career norms the first half which is why he was having an MVP caliber season. The contact drop in the second half probably nuked his numbers to below career norms.

by Bilzo on Sep 9, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t see how that would be the case considering that he was equally streaky with the Mariners. So the changes he’s made, if any, haven’t made him any streakier than he was before. They’ve just improved his overall numbers, and that’s what really matters.

by taco pal on Sep 9, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Lots of variables changed, for sure, so it is still anyone’s guess. But I’ll vote for the park #1 as well as the managerial/“hittin’ filosophee” as #2, as the latter has been documented (I’m remembering SI’s article from the spring about Werth. (I’d imagine the contact % were intact relative to career stats through the ASB).

On the face of it, it appears to be a real interesting study of robbing Peter to pay Paul. The last two games excluded, the lack of contact int he second half has put an absolute dead weight on this lineup. IIRC we were sold on this guy as someone who would make more contact than Burrell, be better defensively, and able to actually reach 2B on balls that are routinely considered doubles.

Last thought is that the swinging harder theory would also explain his injury.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 9, 2009 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

Unfortunately I think we were “sold” on things that weren’t really the case outside of sportswriters’ minds.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Sep 9, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

exactly. Which is why studies like PF’s and TP’s (IIRC) are so interesting to me. On balance you have to take Ibanez’s YTD as a net plus for the team, though with the injury and this wretched 2nd half you worry (as many of us did) about the albatross multi-year deal, which now seems to be a left field tradition with this club.

by Wet Luzinski on Sep 9, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions