The Phillies 5th starter will be ...?
by Philly Blunt on Jan 21, 2010 6:27 PM EST
40 comments
Halladay,Hamels,Blanton,J.A. Happ and...
Moyer needs to follow Randy Johnson into retirement, he proved last year he is running out of gas fast
Kendrick didn't pitch too bad last year, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.42 ERA in 26.1 innings pitched (2 starts). Remember he went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA his rookie year.
Mathieson and Vogelsong are long shots but you never know what will happen this spring training. Shout out to Kutztown University and Vogelsong.
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our rotation doesnt look too bad if Hamels returns to his form, Blanton keeps improving, and if J.A. Happ can repeat last year
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
by eagleswin on Jan 21, 2010 6:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
2nd best in the NL East for sure.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 21, 2010 9:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
how’s that lineup looking?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 21, 2010 9:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not too bad actually. If Chipper and Glaus are relatively healthy and producing, we’ll be right there in the East and Wild Card.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 21, 2010 9:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
that’s a big IF.
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
by ajr142 on Jan 21, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the same Larry Jones who’s discussing retiring?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 21, 2010 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Last season, he played 143 games. Yeah, he struggled (well, he had a bad season for Chipper Jones) but he’d been very good in every season before that. And as long as Chip can have a day or two off every now and then, he’s not too injury prone. It seems like he gets hurt when he has to play every single game without rest.
Glaus is coming off shoulder surgery but has been working out with no restraints since November. With today’s incredible medical procedures, there’s no reason to believe he won’t be back to form. Plus, we’re only paying him $1.75MM, so if he gets injured a bit, it’s not like we’re throwing away our money. He’s also playing 1B, so there’s less stress on the body and more importantly his shoulder. Here’s how I see it in 2010 in regards to our lineup:
Garrett Anderson (barf.) is being replaced by Matt Diaz and (hopefully not often) Melky Cabrera.
Casey Kotchman (barf.) is being replaced by Troy Glaus.
Kelly Johnson is being replaced by Martin Prado (well, kind of. at least we won’t have KJ in our lineup for the first 2 months again.)
Jeff Francoeur is being replaced by Jason Heyward.
3, if not all 4, are huge improvements. And with our pitching, it’s not exactly like we have to score 10 runs a night.
There’s obviously a chance of Chipper or Glaus getting badly injured, but you could say the same for any team in baseball. If they’re hurt, yes, we’re going to struggle to score runs. But if they’re healthy and producing, look out.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 21, 2010 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely see the Braves as the biggest threat to the Phillies for the division, but while the pitching should be very, very good, I think the loss of Vazquez is getting glossed over here. The guy was the best pitcher in the division last year, and while that may be balanced to an extent by full years of Hanson and Hudson, it’s counterbalanced by the unlikelihood of Jurrjens posting an ERA 1.74 points lower than his xFIP again.
Best rotation in the division? Certainly, especially considering the advantage over the Phils in the 4 and 5 spots (assuming Kawakami, who’s just eh, loses the job to Medlen at some point). Enough to offset the Phillies lineup advantage? Should be interesting to see.
by PhillyFriar on Jan 22, 2010 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
/applauds PhillyFriar
you hit the nail on the head my man.
I think that Jurrjens will post a 2010 ERA right in the middle of his 09 FIP and ERA. That xFIP does worry me a bit tho, but the kid can flat-out pitch.
And barring a huge sophomore slump, I think Huddy and Hanson will be able to balance out what Javy did for us last season. I do worry about Hanson coming off of a season where he pitched the most innings in his life.
I kinda wish we wouldn’t have signed Kawakami last off-season, but he definately showed flashes of being a very solid pitcher. And if you look at his stats after his first month or so (keep in mind that it was his first time in America and in MLB last season) he was solid for us. Durability is definately an issue tho. I hope we skip a few of his starts whenever we can.
As long as nothing crazy happens between now and April, I’d take the Phillies in the East and the Braves in the Wild Card, with the Phills taking it with a week or two left in the season. In the Wild Card, the Cubs are a mess, the Giants lineup is still garbage and their pitching won’t be as good in 2010. I think it’ll be us and the Rockies going down to the final weekend with us just barely pulling it out.
Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...
by mvhsbball on Jan 22, 2010 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
do a J
Jurrjens is what, 23? 24? Plenty of time to adjust.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Jan 22, 2010 1:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally, I think I might like the Rockies to win the West next year. Full years of Iannetta, Stewart, and Gonzalez, plus the return of Jeff Francis, make them very dangerous in my mind. I feel like the Dodgers are in for some regression, especially with their pitching staff — just how much will determine whether they’re still winning that division, or battling the Phils/Braves for the Wild Card.
by PhillyFriar on Jan 22, 2010 2:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More Dodger Blue
a costy 722 mill nasty divorce the last I heard could spark that regression maybe things changed..don’t know
by j reed on Jan 22, 2010 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, a divorce doesn’t mean the Dodgers automatically will suck. But they won’t be as likely to make midseason deals.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 22, 2010 8:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
whos the first best…….the phillies duh!
by Philly Blunt on Jan 22, 2010 2:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but aren’t we at the level now where that might be one too many “if’s” esp. as the 5th starter is still an “if”. and the bull pen is filled with “ifs” as well. Red Sox and Yankees don’t have alot of “ifs” in the pitching department as far as I know.
by j reed on Jan 22, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The post above is in response to the first post by "eagles win"
Didn’t realize the thread got so long
by j reed on Jan 22, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, I was the only one who voted for Moyer haha. I think Moyer gets the job out of spring training, and he will lose the job if necessary, with Kendrick (or someone else if the timing makes sense etc.) getting the spot.
by Whack8888 on Jan 21, 2010 9:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
To be honest, I don’t really consider Bastardo a starter at this point either. The fly ball tendency doesn’t mesh well with CBP, and he hasn’t shown the health it would take to assume a starter’s workload.
That being said, I’d rather Bastardo take the ball every fifth day than Vogelsong, or Mathieson (who, as philiafan alluded to below, is a reliever exclusively at this point).
by PhillyFriar on Jan 22, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why did you even put Scott on the poll? I think hes proven that his arm cannot hold up as a starter.
by philiafan14364 on Jan 21, 2010 10:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Is the question who will be the starter or who should be the starter? If he’s physically ready, I think it’s fairly certain that Moyer starts the season as the 5th. Whether he can play well enough to stay there is a whole other issue.
by Boundforbeach on Jan 22, 2010 9:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
In fifth starter’s news, this kind of pisses me off.
Heard this: #Phillies have discussed Chien-Ming Wang but don’t think he’s a fit because, like Moyer, he won’t be ready by start of season.
That just strikes me as incredibly short-sighted. Beerleaguer pointed out the other day that the Phillies don’t actually need a 5th starter until April 26. And even if Kendrick has to make a couple of starts, is that really the end of the world? Wang at the right price is a major upside play — he’s a 30-year old with a career 3.99 FIP, and just imagine how his sinker would look in front of our infield defense — yet they’re overlooking that because he might not be ready for Opening Day.
Ugh.
by PhillyFriar on Jan 27, 2010 3:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I’m pretty surprised that no one else has landed Wang yet. Maybe his price is higher than expected?
by taco pal on Jan 27, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could be a classic case of misinformation to keep the market cool on him.
by Cormican on Jan 28, 2010 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Along the same lines as Wang, I am wondering if it would be good for the Phillies to sign Pedro again as 5th starter. If other teams were interested in him, I would say no way, because he is probably not worth 5 million. However, if the Phils can sign him for 3 million or less, the chance of it working out starts to be worth the risk of it falling apart. Whats the worst that can happen?
Also, from his perspective, if he is getting a semi crap 1 year deal, playing for the Phils that one year makes a lot more sense than playing for a team that doesnt have as much hope of success.
Finally, with the Phils already committed to Moyer, some sort of funky 6 man rotation during the regular may work out pretty well, and may make both Pedro and Moyer pretty decent starters. If memory serves me correctly, Pedro pitched his best when he had plenty of rest. I cant imagine it would hurt for Moyer to get a lot of rest.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5a, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5b
That may be too much rest for either of the two, but maybe something a little more flexible but similar could work.
Basically, if it is for 2 million dollars I would say go for it, anything more makes me say eh and anything less makes me say hooray!
What do you guys think about this?
by Whack8888 on Jan 28, 2010 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You’re right about Moyer. Last year, his ERA splits were 5.35 with 5 or fewer days of rest, 4.01 with 6 or more days. Small sample size though.
by taco pal on Jan 28, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a lot of money to pay for 2 guys who step foot on the field once every 2 weeks, even if you can get Pedro for 2MM.
by Cormican on Jan 28, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats true, but Moyer’s money is a sunk cost, and I am not sure if he can hold up as a starting pitcher in a 5 man rotation anyway. Also, there is basically 4 to 6 games or so when you want him coming out of the bull pen in a year. I was a little worried about taking up an extra roster spot though. Also, there is no sense in throwing good money after bad, and adding Pedro may be one too old starter too many.
by Whack8888 on Jan 28, 2010 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree. I’be been banging away on this idea since we signed Pedro, because I thought moving Moyer to the pen was a decision they didn’t have to make. This idea is a hedge against every 5th day Moyer or every 5th day Pedro.
I should note that once you combine the two salaries, it will once again reignite blah blah blah Cliff Lee, $9MM, blah blah blah. But as you point out, Moyer’s a sunk cost in 2010.
This is pretty much what happened once Moyer was relegated to the bullpen, and it worked out that way for about 2-3 weeks because of some bad weather. I don’t know that I’d be a slave to implement the 5a, 5b religiously (why not trot Moyer out there if it’s a game vs the Marlins, for instance), but it is an interesting (if not expensive) way to use Veteran Clubhouse Presences, protect their arms, as well as the arms of the top 4 guys.
The other thing is that I don’t really trust what Pedro says, and doubt he has much interest at all in routine starts before, say, August 1. So I’d be kind of inclined to be creative, structure some kind of contract that says—we’ll use you starting in August.
The roster spot consideration is more important. You could go with one fewer reliever or bench player. Last year’s bench was so bad you wouldn’t have missed a beat doing this. This year, I think the Phillies will have to rely on the bench to give the thirtysomething core more routine breaks.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 29, 2010 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Moyer bounces back with something to prove?
by Freddyd on Jan 29, 2010 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Moyer is a disaster. However, I voted for him strictly based on the principles from Charlie Manuels guidebook – from Chapter 4 titled: My Preference for Loyalty Over Sound Judgment
After all the surgeries, the 77 mph fastballs and more injuries, how is this guy supposed to get people out?
by Phils 2036 World CH on Jan 29, 2010 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Moyer can prove that unless your name is Satchel Paige those should be knuckleballs your throwing at 50 years of age
At the alleged age of 60, Satchel Paige becomes the oldest player ever to appear in a major league game. Pitching for the Kansas City A’s, he blanks the Red Sox for three innings striking out one and giving up just one hit to Carl Yastrzemski.
by j reed on Jan 31, 2010 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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