Shane! Come back!: Phillies extend CF Shane Victorino for 3 years, $22 million.
by WholeCamels on Jan 21, 2010 9:35 PM EST
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PrintRuben Amaro is paying out like a wino on payday, signing centerfielder and outstanding Hawaiian Shane Victorino to a three year contract extension worth $22 million.
What does this mean? Well, if you're Jayson Werth (and you're probably not), you probably shouldn't be looking to buy a home around here right now.
I'm not as enamored by this deal as I was with the Joe Blanton extension. Victorino is good, but he's pretty replaceable, and Werth is the better player by a pretty wide margin. And Werth is probably (rightly) looking ahead to free agency next winter and licking his chops after seeing what Jason Bay got.
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Bye Jayson (tear), hello Domonic!
If Ibanez is performing well at the beginning of the season (and Brown is tearing it up in the minors) they should shop him aggressively and work on extending Werth.
Werth, Shane, Brown >>>>>>>>> Raul, Shane, Brown
Of course
though I’d add that I’d make pretty sure that Werth was interested in an extension before pulling this maneuver, because while Werth, Shane, Brown >>>>>>>>> Raul, Shane, Brown, that second set still sounds pretty damn good and might be better than Shane/Brown/Consellation prize.
But yeah, agree with your premise certainly.
So, the Ibanez deal came with bloody wafers on it.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 21, 2010 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
Can someone explain the Orwell reference?
by Boundforbeach on Jan 22, 2010 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
The large face shot on the outfield wall suggests that Shane also doubles as the team’s Big Brother, no questions asked. And Brian Giles is clearly about to kneel down and Obey.
That’s my guess anyways.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 22, 2010 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah… since Werth is pretty much my favorite Phillie ever, I’m not thrilled about this. But in isolation I’m ok with it.
by dajafi on Jan 21, 2010 10:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions
victorino could be looked at as replaceable, but it doesnt look like gose or gillies or any of the athletic OFs we have coming up will be ready to replace shane in 2011/12 so it’s a fine deal.
let’s hope ruben keeps the wallet open a little longer to lock up Werth long term.
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
not a bad deal i guess, i cant wait to see how Brown performs in the Bigs though, hes the guy i'm waiting to see
eff you we winning anyway
A.I. IS BACKKKKKKK
Yup, this tips Amaro's hand.
Not thrilled about the idea of letting Werth walk — I’d prefer keeping him to Howard, as far as long-term priorities go — but as dajafi says, this is a good deal in isolation.
Shane’s been worth 7.5 WAR as a center fielder over the past two years, and I think there’s good reason to expect him to be at least a 3 win player per year over the next 3 years. Shane’s continually gotten better as a hitter, tightening up his control of the strike zone over the past few years, and I think the truth about his fielding is somewhere in between his UZR numbers from 2008 and 2009 (he was -4.2 UZR/150, but the Fans Scouting Report doesn’t paint quite so negative a picture).
It also sets a pretty accurate picture for how the starting outfield is likely to play out over the coming years…
- 2010: Ibanez — Victorino — Werth
- 2011: Ibanez — Victorino — Francisco
- 2012: Francisco — Victorino — Brown
- 2013: ??? — Gillies — Brown
…with “Francisco” possibly representing a platoon between Ben and a free agent lefty hitter, or just a free agent hitter entirely. (Incidentally, it’s sad to think that that’s exactly where Taylor would have slotted in).
He probably will be at some point during the year (if not for Opening Day itself); and I think platooning Brown with Francisco, and gradually giving him more at bats as he adjusts, could be a good way to break him into the bigs. But I just wanted to err on the side of caution in sketching things out, as I’m sure most organizations do.
Incidentally, I’m sure the Phillies would love nothing more than for Brown to tear through Reading and Lehigh Valley in 2010 and demand a starting spot for next year. It would at least cover their tracks for giving away Taylor (I know, I’m repeating myself).
Setting Up
I think Victorino’s has great hand-eye coordination, an excellent arm and good range but suffers in the fielding IQ department. A good example was during the 3rd game of the WS While Hamels is to blame for throwing that curve ball to petite, victorino positioning didn’t help the matter.. Had been playing more shallow like he was supposed to for a pitcher, an AL one nonetheless, that bloopy line drive could have been caught or least fielded better.
Unless Franciso’s arm improves I think his career is as bench player. stalagmites form faster than the time it takes one of his throws to reach home.
Unless Franciso’s arm improves
True, that makes Friar’s 2011 OF lineup a little scary, as neither Ben or Raul have a good RF worthy cannon.
Ibanez might have the power but not the accuracy of Pat the Bat’s canon, however it’s a far cry from Francisco’s Trebuchet .. He basically lobs it. One time it looked like he was conducting fly ball practice. That can be improved …. at the very least, the power part.
HA. The Mets strike again. I love Sarge but his son can stay in NY. Wow and Pinero who has a sinkerballer better than Pelfrey’s which has caused us some problems, is now an Angel. I suppose they need a CF but not at that price. I wonder if this brillant move takes them out of the Ben Sheets sweepstakes
Looks like we’re all operating under the assumption the payroll budget won’t increase in 2011. It probably won’t, but there might be room in the 2011 season (minus Moyer contract!!! – That’s just a relief on a couple different levels) and definitely there will be payroll space beyond 2011 for Werth.
by Phils 2036 World CH on Jan 22, 2010 7:38 AM EST up reply actions
The budget will increase but probably not by much. Probably enough to allow us to sign some bullpen arms and role players. Even Moyer’s 6.5 mil off the books is maybe only enough to sign 1-2 legit bullpen arms. Even scrubs are getting 6 mil a year now, its ridiculous.
This extension does not necessarily mean that Werth is gone.
The Phillies already had Victorino under control through 2011. The extension is just for one additional year; it provides insurance in case Gose or Gillies are not ready by 2012; and it reduces the guess-work about the 2011-2012 budget. If Gose or Gillies is ready by 2012, they can trade Victorino after 2011 and get something good in return.
Letting Werth walk does not make a lot of sense to me. He is the team’s best athlete; he is their only right-handed power; and he should be more affordable than Bay whose offensive track record is much better than Werth’s. By 2012, even if Werth is paid market value, the combined salaries of the corner outfielders (Werth and Brown) should be no higher than the combined salaries of the corner outfielders today (Werth and Ibanez).
i dont think they are letting Werth walk, but they need to watch the finances. on-field play only, Werth would be here for a few more years, but he’s going to be looking for close to $15M/yr if not more, and the Phils sadly can’t act like the Yanks and keep paying high dollar contracts.
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
Personally I think Ibanez will get traded at the end of next year, probably to an AL team where he can DH. That frees up LF where Dom Brown can take over. You then take Ibanez’s salary off the books in favor of the 400,000 that Brown will make, plus Moyer’s 6.5 that comes off the books and what they saved in the under market contracts for Blanton and Halladay and you ink Werth. I think the Phillies gave Victorino the extra year, the Amaro year as I call it, simply so they can trade him at the end of his contract rather than lose him for nothing. They have Tyson Giles who can take over for Victorino in 2 years easily.
Why do you think Ibanez can be traded? At his age and salary, there will almost certainly be no takers unless we pay for a good chunk of his salary…
by Boundforbeach on Jan 22, 2010 9:25 AM EST up reply actions
If he can still play, why wouldn’t he be tradeable? I can’t understand why people always say that. Next offseason, he’ll have one year and $11 million left on his deal. We’re not exactly talking about Vernon Wells’ contract here.
Well, let’s just say I’ll believe it when I see it. Alot of it would have to do with his 2010 performance. If he spends his season swinging, missing and contorting into a pretzel at the plate like he did in the postseason, he’s not going anywhere…
by Boundforbeach on Jan 22, 2010 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Perhaps swinging a bat with a sportsman’s hernia in need of surgical repair might have been the culprit
I’m of two minds about this deal. On one hand, I think there are positional considerations that cause me to prefer Werth. Also, I think Werth is and will continue to be a more valuable player than Victorino (not that Victorino isn’t valuable himself).
On the other hand, the name of the game isn’t so much getting the best players as it is getting the best bargains. If Werth commands market price and Victorino is a bargain (which appears to be the case here), then there’s a decent argument that Victorino is actually the better option.
If Tyson Gillies is ready to start in CF in 2011 or 2012, we will probably have made the wrong decision. But that’s admittedly risky.
The Mets just picked up Sarge Jr.
why would they make that move? just throwing money out the window.
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/01/mets-to-acquire-gary-matthews-jr.html
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
Is that a misprint? The Angels are paying $21 mil of the $23.5 mil owed under the contract ?!?
by Boundforbeach on Jan 22, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
21.5 actually. I’m not a few of GMJ, but at 1 MM per year, that’s a great deal for the Mets. They cleared hired Ben Kenobi to perform the negotiations with the Angels.
I was going to ask what was in this for the Angels, and then I saw Lil’ Sarge’s stats since his 2006 walk year. That’s a “dog poop on your shoes” kind of breakup.
It’ll be interesting in the broadcast booth fer sure. Has to be nice for Sarge.
by Wet Luzinski on Jan 22, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Just In
“The Phillies have reached an agreement with Jose Contreras to a one-year deal, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical.
The righty posted a 5.42 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 21 starts for the White Sox before getting traded to the Rockies in late August. The 38-year-old posted a 1.59 in seven games for Colorado in the regular season, including two starts. The veteran also made two appearances for the club in the postseason."
Hopefully Werth could take a pay cut next year to stay a Phillie. I highly doubt it after seeing what Bay got.
The Right-hander checks the runner here's the pitch.Swing and a drive right-center field. This one is falling it's a base hit! It'll go up the alley. Bruntlett will score,Ruiz around 3rd he's being waved home. The Phillies have won the ball game,Rollins has won it! They stream out of the dugout. This game is over as the Phillies strike again with 2 outs in the 9th inning!"
-Scott Franske calling Jimmy Rollins walk-off hit in Game 4 of the 2009 NLCS
I like the deal with victorino, but still hope for Werth to stay a phillie. Yankees will definitely go after werth. Hopefully Werth will not care about the money, but more about staying a phillie.
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