The Least Important Probables Chart of the Year (Oct. 1-3)

by taco pal on Oct 1, 2010 11:45 AM EDT

So we still have three games left in the season? No kidding.

The chart below reflects the likely starters for this weekend's rather anticlimactic series in Atlanta. The Phillies haven't officially announced their Saturday and Sunday starters yet, but it sounds like they're probably going to use Cole Hamels and Vance Worley, respectively. Hamels will be on a low pitch count for his game. Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt are unlikely to pitch in the series at all. If Charlie elects to have them pitch Games 1 and 2 of the DS, they will do so on eight and nine days' rest, respectively. (Which seems like kind of a long time.)

Worley's and Brandon Beachy's stats below are, of course, meaningless. Tim Hudson's start on Sunday will be his second straight on three days' rest. He threw 100 pitches in his last start, which was on Wednesday against the Marlins.

The Braves enter the series 2.0 games up on the Padres for the wild card. Since the Padres and Giants are playing each other this weekend and since the Braves' record is only 1.0 games behind the Giants' record, the Braves have already clinched at least a tie for the NL wildcard berth, and will clinch the berth outright unless the Phillies sweep them and the Padres win either two or three of their games against the Giants. [Edit: Actually that last point is wrong - see Screen Name 20's comment below.]

Day	Pitcher	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	GB%	LD%	FB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA

Friday	Kendrick	32	30	175.2	4.20	2.36	1.33	.289	44.8	17.0	38.2	11.3%	4.76	4.92	4.79	4.90
	Beachy	2	2	9.1	9.64	5.79	1.67	.355	26.9	34.6	38.5	0.0%	2.89	2.87	4.34	4.22

Saturday	Hamels	32	32	206.2	9.10	2.61	1.13	.298	45.4	16.8	37.8	12.4%	3.09	3.69	3.43	3.19
	Hanson	33	33	197.2	7.60	2.46	0.64	.293	41.1	16.8	42.2	5.9%	3.41	3.35	4.08	3.76

Sunday	Worley	4	1	8.0	10.13	2.25	1.13	.307	42.9	19.0	38.1	12.5%	2.25	3.21	2.95	2.75
	Hudson	33	33	221.2	5.52	2.96	0.73	.257	64.7	13.5	21.8	12.4%	2.76	4.01	3.85	3.65

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Comments

Braves haven't clinched a tie for the WC...yet

Braves magic number is two, so they can still lose out. If Phils sweep and Padres sweep, Pads win the division and Giants are the WC.

by Screen Name 20 on Oct 1, 2010 12:00 PM EDT reply actions

I think there is a 0% chance of that actually happening though.

5-8-10...the day the Purdue Boilermakers basketball team won the 2011 NCAA Championship!!

by EREX21 on Oct 1, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t care what the chances are of that happening, I WANT IT I WANT IT I WANT IT!!!

by packimop on Oct 1, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Fine. How bout...

Phils sweep and Padres go 2-1.

by Screen Name 20 on Oct 1, 2010 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

and lose the playoff.

by Screen Name 20 on Oct 1, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Interesting

by phatj on Oct 1, 2010 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, you’re right.

by taco pal on Oct 1, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Could be a looooong weekend for our middle relief. Cole’s on a low pitch count, and who knows what we’ll get out of Kendrick and Worley. Guys like Romero surely could use some innings, but I wonder just how much our relievers will be taking the mound the next three days.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 1, 2010 12:22 PM EDT reply actions

Could always pitch one of the Roy’s in Relief for a few batters, basically replacing a bullpen session and peventing such a long layoff.

by Cormican on Oct 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

That is the plan for Sunday— Oswalt will be coming out of the pen. I wish that they were planning to do similarly with Halladay (either by having him come in to relieve Worley on Saturday or by having him start the game but only go a couple of innings).,

by dannijd on Oct 1, 2010 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I foresee multiple inning stints by our longer relievers like Durbin and Herndon.

by RaptorLC on Oct 1, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe less so for Durbin who will be on the NLDS Roster.

by Cormican on Oct 1, 2010 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions

That pic of Worley… nice leg kick on the follow thru!

by Boundforbeach on Oct 1, 2010 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

Almost… birdlike

by taco pal on Oct 1, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Is 8-9 days too much rest? Here’s a nifty little USA Today article, two years ago to the date, exploring the effectiveness of pitchers and rest periods.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-10-01-19555336_x.htm

by Boundforbeach on Oct 1, 2010 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

I worry a little bit about this too. Personally I would have given him a 60ish pitch start.

by Vaughn Haze on Oct 1, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose he could always just throw in the bullpen.

by taco pal on Oct 1, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitely— I keep thinking about how bad Halladay was against the Cubs— he was on very long rest (8 days other than a brief appearance in the All-Star Game), and had one of his worst starts of the year— hitting the same batter twice, giving up a pair of home runs. I understand that his innings count is a concern, but getting out of rhythm has to be as big of a concern in the short run.

by dannijd on Oct 1, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Hamels got bumped back to Sunday. He has a cold apparently.

Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 1, 2010 4:46 PM EDT reply actions

Also on Sunday Roy Oswalt will be relieving Hamels out of the bullpen. Vance Worley bumped up to tomorrow.
Link

Now that's what I call high quality H2O!

by Justin F. on Oct 1, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, was unwares of the Hudson abuse. So the Braves could clinch on the last pitch of Hudson’s season/career, not Wagner’s. Either ok by me.

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 1, 2010 4:51 PM EDT reply actions

I think my dream scenario is San Diego sweeps San Francisco, and the Braves take 1 of three this weekend = three way tie. SF & SD play a game for the division, and the loser plays Atlanta for the WC.

I don’t know that it somehow gives the Phillies an advantage – I just think it would be fun to watch!

by Cthepitch on Oct 1, 2010 5:18 PM EDT reply actions

If the Padres win out in that scenario, it will mean that Game 1 will be their sixteenth game in sixteen consecutive days. Latos and Young would both be unavailable to pitch Game 1. Of course, it would also mean they would be coming in with a five-game win streak.

by taco pal on Oct 1, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

It occurs to me that my statement that Hudson would be pitching on short rest for the second straight game was erroneous. His last game was on short rest, but his game in this series will be on four days’ rest.

by taco pal on Oct 3, 2010 1:46 PM EDT reply actions