A Rundown of the Phillies at the Giants, NLCS Game 3
by David S. Cohen on Oct 19, 2010 10:30 AM EDT
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PrintAs the Phillies prepare to play the Giants in the first of three NLCS games in San Francisco this afternoon, here's some food for thought about the upcoming series and game:
The stadium: The Phillies have not fared particularly well under Charlie Manuel at AT&T Park. Overall, Manuel's Phillies are 9-11 there. Over Manuel's first three years as the Phillies' manager, the team was 6-4, meaning the Phillies have struggled there since 2008, as they've gone 3-7 in San Francisco since then.
Of the starting eight, only Ryan Howard has hit well in the stadium. He has a career .257/.325/.581 triple-slash line at the park. Jayson Werth (.268/.381/.423) and Shane Victorino (.320/.346/.440) have also been respectable, but the rest of the team has really struggled. Carlos Ruiz (.160/.344/.160) and Raul Ibanez have been particularly awful (.118/.304/.118).
Today's pitchers: Cole Hamels doesn't have any better of a track record here. He's been downright mediocre against the Giants in his career, going 4-2 in 8 starts against them and posting a 4.67 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 52:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's been much worse in San Francisco though, as he's gone 2-1 in 4 starts while posting a 6.12 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and 28:11 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Matt Cain hasn't been any better against the Phillies. in fact, he's been even worse. He's had 5 career starts against the Phillies and has gone 0-3. He's posted a 6.23 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 23:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Generally, though, he's a much better pitcher in San Francisco, as he's got a career winning record there (33-30) while posting a 3.19 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 472:220 strikeout to walk ratio.
Right/Left/Right: If the Giants throw their starters as scheduled, they'll go right/left/right against the Phillies in the three games in San Francisco. With three of the Phillies' top power hitters being left handed, conventional wisdom says that the Phillies will do better in the games started by the Giant's righties and worse in the game started by the lefty.
Conventional wisdom is wrong though. The Phillies have batted virtually identically against lefty and righty starters. Against righties, the team has a collective .260/.333/.414 line. Against lefties, their line is .260/.330/.411. Not much of a difference at all. If you include starters and relievers, the team actually does slightly better against lefties. Overall, the team has a .256/.329/.407 line against all righties and a .269/.339/.429 line against lefties.
Cody Ross: And one last thought about the Phillie killer du jour. In the regular season, he has hit more home runs against the Phillies than against any other team. However, his .758 career OPS against the Phillies is lower than his overall career number of .788. His career .776 OPS in San Francisco is also less than his overall career number. He shouldn't be feared over the next three games.
That is, if the Phillies can keep the ball away from the inside part of the plate against him . . . .
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Cody Ross is injured
He has a mild back strain that will make it difficult for him to turn on the fastball inside, especially down and in.
Please pass this information along to everyone you know, especially members of the media and anyone employed by the Phillies organization.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
Bad karma
You mean like not winning an f’ing World Series title in 56 years, while losing two in horrific fashion (’62 and ’02)? How much worse can it get?
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Worse.
Much, much worse.
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by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
But the graph shows a trend in that the tectonic platers are being far less active, judging by the 42 year span of uneventfulness, followed by low amounts of activity, and nothing since 1989. I’d say we’re probably in for a drought of uneventfulness again, ended by a 6.0-7.0 earthquake, followed by a few earthquakes, if any
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 19, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh I know, but for the avg person and their life, 42 years is half of their life
I’m just looking at things through the eyes of the people living now, and not through the eyes of the 4.2 billion year old Earth
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 19, 2010 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Men come and go, but Earth abides. Dude.
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by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
10,000+
losses. see ya in a few more decades cuz
by PHIGHTINPHILS on Oct 19, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
OMG. Thanks for the heads-up. My sister’s brother-n-law has a cousin who went to high school with Heidi Hamels and they’re good facebook friends and water each other’s crops on farmville all the time. Will make sure Cole gets this crucial information before game time.
On a related note, I have it on good authority that Ryan Howard has been decimating breaking balls in batting practice recently. Do with that what you will…
by Boundforbeach on Oct 19, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Ryan Howard has been decimating breaking balls in batting practice recently
Howard hitting one of every ten breaking balls sounds about right, actually </ PEDANT>
by perfectdepth on Oct 19, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
swish. Beat me to it. Technically, he’s topping off one in ten of them.
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 19, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
The good news? After decimation you still have nine left to field a baseball team. Take that, you Huns. We still have Calvin Coolidge Julius Caesar Tuskahoma McLish on our team. We call him JC now.
by phillyinportland on Oct 19, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome
Maybe after she gets done raking some leaves on Heidi Hamels’ farm she can let her know.
Also, somewhat related to Ryan Howard, Aaron Rowand is in the zone, it’s probably best to just walk him, but don’t do it with sliders as he’s known to swing, er, crush sliders aimed at his back foot. (While I was typing that Rowand already went to an 0-2 count before the game even started, proving his nickname of Rowand-2 to be stunningly accurate.)
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I would also like to congratulate Philadelphia
For using every ounce of talent Aaron Rowand had in his body before letting him leave to play for the Giants. You got your money’s worth.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
No, we were robbed by him too. He blocked Shane Victorino from playing full time when Victorino was clearly the superior player.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 19, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Oddly enough
That actually makes me feel a little better, now if I could just figure out a way that Barry Zito damaged the A’s organization I might stop waking up in the middle of the night and screaming obscenities at Brian Sabean.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
But I’d argue that he “blocked” Victorino in the sense that Vic should have been playing center.
Maybe but as far as we knew at the time, if we had played Victorino in center, we would have had no one to play right. Obviously, it later turned out that we had Werth, but no one knew until relatively late in 2007 that Werth was a good option.
The best argument that can be made is actually that Rowand caused Abreu to be traded. But I don’t actually think that Rowand’s contract was a primary motivation in Gillick’s decision. It was more that Gillick (prematurely) decided to blow up the team.
Vic in CF, Rowand in RF
Yes, I know, Rowand’s noodle arm would be miscast in RF, but part of the problem of him playing center is that he was constantly cutting off balls in front of Victorino when his momentum was carrying him the wrong way to make the throw. Putting him in RF would have minimized this. And lets not forget that a strong arm is important in center too.
Did Aaron Rowand make your life miserable somehow? Robbed us? In 2007 he had a fine year. Why pick on the guy? As far as I know he never said anything bad about his time here or did anything but give his best effort.
by phillyinportland on Oct 19, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
P.T Barnum said what?
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by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Much, much worse.
(Wait, I already played that.)
472:220 strikeout to walk ratio.
/feels better
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by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes
Yes, it is. Toss in Zito for three more and it’s downright painful, but at least Renteria comes off the books this year, just in time to overpay for Jayson Werth who will inevitably begin a drastic decline before completely imploding in the second year of a 17 year contract.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you heard any rumors to that effect? I keep thinking it would make sense if the Giants went after Werth (a lot more so than the Yankees, who you hear rumors about all the time), but I haven’t actually heard that they’re interested.
Haven't heard any rumors
But aging veteran who will most likely begin to decline over the course of their contract and will command more money than they’re probably worth due to a thin free agent market is Sabean’s MO. He practically wrote that book.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe. The “thin free agent market” thing may be counteracted, though, by the fact that Werth may actually be very underrated. The end of his contract will probably turn out badly either way, but at least you would get a good beginning of his contract.
Definitely wouldn’t be the worst Sabean’s ever done and I actually think it would be good idea for the Giants. I’m just jaded that whoever they spend big dollars on will wind up getting injured and/or falling off the face of the planet (see: Zito, Rowand, DeRosa, F. Sanchez, Renteria et. al.)
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The Dodger in Werth would have it no other way.
☸ Do not take the finger for the moon. ☸
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 19, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
2010 SF RA/G (Runs Allowed Per Game): 3.6
So if we can get Cody to the plate four times: PROFIT!
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Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
He's only a .500/.625/2.000 hitter.
So, you’ll have to get him to the plate 8 times, to overcome 3.6RAG.
I'm surrounded on all three sides by statnerds.
Not a member or affiliated with McCOVEY CHRONICLES in ANY way/shape/form.
Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
History doesn’t really have a huge correlation on the game, people said we couldn’t hit Sanchez, we hit Sanchez. We also hit Lincecum, even if it isn’t showing up on the box scores, we’re really dominating the battle against the pitchers. We’re taking pitches, we’re making em work.
If we take that same approach against Cain, especially given our successful history against him. We can get hits, and you know Hamels got something to prove after 09’. He wants to compete at the highest level, and I think we’re gonna get another ace-like start from him.
my only issue with this is that you’re denouncing history to benefit the argument, but then using that same history to support your argument
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 19, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Shadows
Do we expect them in the late innings today?
The shadows will make their way into the park around the 7th inning...
"Fuck yeah, shut up." - Tim Lincecum
Don't tell them about the trained seagulls.
Or the trained fog.
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Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha, shadows are like Dodgers fans....
by Screen Name 20 on Oct 19, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
The shadows will make their way into the park around the 7th inning…
Haha, shadows are like Dodgers fans….
by Screen Name 20 on Oct 19, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
nah Dodgers fans are making their way out of the park around the 7th inning…..
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
Out of the park? I thought that is when most of them made their way into the park.
Now that's what I call high quality H2O!
No, they come in the 3rd and leave in the 7th. That freeway is murder, apparently. /rt 76 is a 2-lane highway //no sympathy
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Shadows
I do not expect any because the Vorlons will kick their asses and keep them from interfering with baseball. The Vorlons like baseball.
☸ Do not take the finger for the moon. ☸
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 19, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Whither Rollins?
Will Cholly shuffle the lineup to promote Jimmy v Cain? Also: What’s Passan trying to say here? That time makes fools of us all, or, that J-Roll is bad except when he’s good?
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
Sports can be like that. Life can be like that. And unless you grow, as a man and as an athlete, and learn to handle those frustrations, you can never becomeeverything you ought to bea Gaslamp mod.
Not a member or affiliated with McCOVEY CHRONICLES in ANY way/shape/form.
Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
old school lineup today
Rollins/Polanco/Utley/Howard/Werth/Ibanez/Victorino/Ruiz/Hamels
I guess this means either that Jimmy’s really close to 100 percent, or that Cholly grabbed the wrong sheet, posted it in the clubhouse, recognized his mistake and thought, “fuck it, let’s just see what happens.”
(Seriously, I probably would have left Vic at leadoff, but I don’t have a huge problem with it.)
Rollins at leadoff
I wholeheartedly support this move by Manuel.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, it’s got leadoff HR written all over it
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
To be fair
He’s hit exactly one ball hard in the last two games, was awarded ball four on strike 2, hit a popup that didn’t reach the pitcher’s mound but went for a hit, and posted an OPS of .694 this year. Maybe his hamstring is healed and this is the beginning of tear he’s about to go on, but the numbers tell a much different story.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
No argument from me.
☸ Do not take the finger for the moon. ☸
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 19, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I don’t really care about Rollins leading off.
I do care a little about putting Utley and Howard back to back again. I’m not that surprised because in the pregame for Game 2, Charlie said he was splitting them up not because of the Giants’ lefty relievers, but because Sanchez was a lefty. Of course, that makes very little sense at all, but he’s at least being consistent. We may see Polanco back in the third spot in Game 4 vs. Bumgarner.
Don't worry
Bork counteracted this move by playing both Renteria and Rowand today, while dropping Huff to 6th in the lineup. Cain will most likely need to throw an 11-12 inning no hit shutout to win.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Gelb just Tweeted that the Phillies are using the same lineup they had Sunday.
by dannijd on Oct 19, 2010 1:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Gelb just Tweeted that the Phillies are using the same lineup they had Sunday.
by dannijd on Oct 19, 2010 1:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
lineup
Ken Rosenthal just tweeted lineup unchanged from Sunday. Who to believe???
Naw, man, I’m not worried, I like my SS. Sweetest HR stroke in the lineup. You’ll see…
"He's a bum...this one stinks...this jerk can't play."-- A father teaching his daughter the Phillies lineup from the program roster, the Vet, c.1998
On the green in three.
Which is why Charlie hoped he’d catch a low one for a hit.
I sort of wish Charlie wasn’t so prescient, ya know?
Also, this.
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Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
the regular season, he has hit more home runs against the Phillies than against any other team.
I looked this up after he jacked his third Roy HR.
Ross does in fact have 13 regular season HRs against PHL. He’s hit 11 against the Nats, 9 vs the Mets, and 8 against the Braves. No more than 5 against any other team. Note that all of these teams are NL east foes whom he sees 19 times a year (equating to ~200-250 PA against each division opponent). His HR/PA rate is as follows:
vs PHL: 5.4%
vs WAS: 4.9%
(career: 3.9%)
vs ATL: 3.7%
vs NYM: 3.4%
Giants lineup
One of the most slow-footed lineups I’ve ever seen. Is Bochy panicking with these moves or is this on par for the course with him?
On par
He’s mildly mentally retarded, and staking his claim to being the most veteran loving manager in the history of the game.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Cain's reaction upon seeing the lineup this morning
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
I’ve seen this meme on MCC before, but I’ve never bothered to trace its roots. Is there a quick answer to: significance? I get whose face it is and all.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Oct 19, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
http://firedayton.blogspot.com/2009/12/were-still-alive-and-pissed-off.html
kinda a takeoff from these iirc
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
Thanks! Missed that somehow.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Oct 19, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
They're damned addictive.
Memo to Torture: don’t be a sheep.
Not a member or affiliated with McCOVEY CHRONICLES in ANY way/shape/form.
Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 19, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
i live in the bay area now and am watching csn california for the pregame. these giants fans are on the bandwagon bus where were they all season.
by phillyeaglesfan on Oct 19, 2010 3:32 PM EDT reply actions
Uh
The Giants sold more than 3 million tickets this year. Not much of a bandwagon.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
the attendance isnt an issue. they never have a problem selling tickets at at&t. its just funny going through my town of fremont and riding through the east bay seeing all these so called giants fans. the whole bay jumps on it when things are going good.
by phillyeaglesfan on Oct 19, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No different than Philadelphia circa 2008.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
yeah i guess your right
i cant wait to sport my colors game 5
by phillyeaglesfan on Oct 19, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
You're in the East Bay
The Giants haven’t had any attendance issues since they moved to their new park, even when they sucked , but the East Bay may be full of bandwagon jumpers who are tired of watching the A’s suck. Giants fans typically live in the South Bay down in to San Jose.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
this place is paradise compared to my house in south jersey tho
by phillyeaglesfan on Oct 19, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh? The Giants have no attendance problems at all. Their ballpark holds a capacity of 41,915 fans. Per Baseball Almanac, their average attendance per game this year was 35,332. While this number is not a great indicator because different ballparks hold different number of fans, the average number of fans a team totaled this year in the National League was 2,571,627, while the Giants totaled 2,861,113 fans. As mentioned above me, this is good for one of the tops in the league.
The Bay Area is a big baseball market and the San Francisco Giants have always had a large fan base, and I am not sure you are aware of that.
Now that's what I call high quality H2O!
Oops, those are the 2009 numbers. 2010 has not been released on baseball almanac yet, but I guess that just goes to show there is not much of a Giants bandwagon like there is with Tampa Bay in the playoffs. Look how well they did in a year when they were not even a playoff team.
Now that's what I call high quality H2O!
Also
They will show up before the first pitch, stay until the last pitch and will refrain from playing with beach balls. This is not the Fodgers or Padres.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 19, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
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