Why Charlie and the Phillies Are Right to Start Joe Blanton Tonight

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 12:02 PM EDT

Charlie's decision to stick with Joe Blanton in Game 4 tonight is proving to be somewhat controversial, just as Girardi's decision to use A.J. Burnett last night in the ALCS was. Evaluating this decision defies easy quantification, but here's a very brief, back-of-the-envelope analysis for why Charlie's decision is not only defensible but probably correct.

Here's a table of each of our four starters' xFIPs for: (1) the full season, (2) the last three months*, and (3) the average of the first two columns. The reason I calculated an average is to try to give greater weight to more recent performance without wholly ignoring what happened earlier in the year. It's a crude method for doing that, but whatever.

Pitcher	Full Season	Last 3 Mos.	Average xFIP
Halladay	2.92	2.86	2.89
Oswalt	3.45	3.40	3.43
Hamels	3.43	3.12	3.28
Blanton	4.06	3.52	3.79

[* I would have used post-ASB numbers except that Fangraphs doesn't maintain that split. So instead I had to manually calculate a weighted average. These figures might be slightly off, but they should at least be very close.]

Here were Charlie's two options (barring rainouts). "FR" stands for "Full Rest" and "SR" stands for "Short Rest."

Game	Option 1	Option 2
4	Blanton (FR)	Halladay (SR)
5	Halladay (FR)	Oswalt (SR)
6	Oswalt (FR)	Hamels (SR)
7	Hamels (FR)	Halladay (SR x 2)

Rearranging these options for ease of analysis gives you this:

Halladay (FR) (Game 5) > Halladay (SR) (Game 4) --> Difference = A
Oswalt (FR) (Game 6) > Oswalt (SR) (Game 5) --> Difference = B
Hamels (FR) (Game 7) > Hamels (SR) (Game 6) --> Difference = C
Blanton (FR) (Game 4) < Halladay (SR x 2) (Game 7) --> Difference = D

Question: Is D greater than or less than the sum of (A + B + C)?

Blanton's weighted xFIP from the last column in the first table is 3.79, while Halladay's is 2.89. So if both were at full rest, you might expect an advantage for Halladay of around 0.90 points. But Halladay will be on short rest times two, plus you're lowering your odds in the other three games by having all of them be on short rest as well. You could consider that to be 5.0 units of short rest.

So in the final analysis, what we need to know is: How much should you expect a pitcher to lose, on average, when he goes on short rest? Is it greater than or less than 0.90 divided by 5.0, which equals 0.18?

I doubt that anyone knows the precise answer to this question, but if you had to guess, I think it would be more than reasonable to guess that a pitcher, on average, will lose more than 0.18 by going on short rest.

I recognize that this is a very simplified analysis with certain non-proven assumptions, and I can foresee what some of the objections will be (some worthy, some not), but I don't have time to write more at the moment. But hopefully we can hash that out in the comments.

Tweet Comment 103 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

This is one of those moments. The moment that no matter what the outcome the comments heaped on the manager will be to the extreme. Either he’ll be a genius for running Blanton out there and thus keeping everyone on full rest or he’ll be a ginormous tool because he didn’t use his ace pitcher even on short rest.

Only really tangentially related to the fact that underneath it all, it really is the smart move, and the right move, no matter what the outcome (in my opinion).

To me, the outcome of the game today is much more dependent on whether the offense shows up

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:08 PM EDT reply actions

Manuel only wins if the team does...

As much as everybody will complain about the pitching decision if the Phillies do not win today (particularly if Blanton pitches poorly), they would do the same thing if Halladay were to pitch poorly on short rest- only then we would be down 3 games to 1 facing a choice of Blanton or another short rest potential disaster.

Totally agreed on the right decision.

I think the outcome today goes both ways- for all the complaints about the failure of the Yankees bats to show up, the fact is that they have given up a lot of runs- while 11 runs in four games will not win you many series, giving up 30 in that same time period makes it tough to win period.

by dannijd on Oct 20, 2010 12:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Spoke my mind.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Oct 20, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

also to consider

What option gives you the better percentages to win going forward? If this series goes seven, the World Series rotation would be Oswalt (5 days rest after a 3 days rest start), Hamels (4 days rest after a 3 days rest start), then bring back Halladay in Game 3 of the World Series after 2 starts of 3 days rest in a row (would be on 5 days rest for this start). You have to believe that fatigue will start to weigh on them at some point, especially for Halladay given how high his innings pitched would be at that point. I know we shouldn’t be looking ahead to the World Series, but that is the goal right? I know about the prestige that 3 straight NL pennants would bring, but I really don’t care if we don’t win it all. Blanton here is the right call. If they have to bring Halladay back on 3 days rest, save it for Game 4 of the World Series.

by cyhamels on Oct 20, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

I believe planning the rotation in the LCS based on world series availability would be a mistake

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

This was not the only point to consider, it was to be taken into consideration in addition to taco pal’s argument. Since Joe Blanton vs. Halladay on 3 days rest is an argument that can be made either way (although I agree with Blanton), if there are other factors to weigh, you must weigh them. There is a possibility of more games to be played, so you don’t go for broke now. Obviously, if you make it to the World Series, no matter if you win or lose there are no additional games to consider. If the percentages favor starting Blanton (as shown above), this can make the argument only stronger.

by cyhamels on Oct 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

If Halladay pitches game 5 and the series goes 7 – how many days rest are there between game 1 of the world series and game 5 of the NLCS?

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

5 days rest

by cyhamels on Oct 20, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it’s OK to give this a small amount of consideration if all the other factors are close. Not too much consideration though.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

totally agree. You have to plan on how to get there first.

by Bilzo on Oct 20, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Good analysis. In addition, one would have to expect each of the short-rest starts to be shorter, thus putting more reliance on the 7th inning bullpen guys. That is also a negative trade-off for the team.

by Vaughn Haze on Oct 20, 2010 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

It just comes down to the players doing their thing. As manager, your jobs is to make them comfortable as possible and put them in the best position to win.
charlie has a great track record over the past 4 years doing it his way. I think very few Phils fans would begrudge him this choice of Blanton. His players usually reward him for his patience in them (i.e. J Roll in game 2, Lidge in 2010).

by Adam Gladstone on Oct 20, 2010 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

I think very few Phils fans would begrudge him this choice of Blanton.

I think if the phillies lose the series and lose today that many ‘fans’ will begrudge him a lot

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I think very few Phils fans would begrudge him this choice of Blanton.

If the Phillies end up losing this series, even if they win this game, fans will rip Charlie. I would consider those to be the less than intelligent fans.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Oct 20, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

That reply was meant for Adam Gladstone…reply fail.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Oct 20, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I would consider them that too but I feel that they make up a larger portion of the fanbase especially the loud call in the radio type fanbase

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

They do now. Actually, they probably always have, but not that they have witnessed winning, they feel as though they are entitled to throw their opinion out there as if it’s right/matters.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Oct 20, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Adam

Do you have a brother who has the same first name as Ken Rosenthal?

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Blanton is the right choice…why do you ask?

Because Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels (all on 4 days rest) give you a better chance to win the series, regardless of the outcome in game 4, than do 4 pitchers on short rest.

Blanton winning tonight is a bonus. I fully believe Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels can win 3 straight games to win it in 7

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 12:48 PM EDT reply actions

full days rest*

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree. Plus I think Blanton will pitch well in that park against that lineup. It’s not like they’re strutting Kendrick out there tonight.

by cyhamels on Oct 20, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions

you just can’t pass up the possibility of having your best pitchers on full rest pitching for you. Sure they have to win 3 games straight in the worst case scenario, but thats not beyiond the realm of possibility

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I been saying that since the end of yesterdays game – some people just don’t see it though – for some reason i think blanton is seen as a really ugly step child and people need to understand he’s a better ‘four’ than most teams have

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m just thinking of a possible game 7, which you have to consider, given the high quality of your pitching in games 5 and 6. Halladay on short rest the first time gives u a good chance, halladay on 2 terms of short rest you are begging for a bad outcome

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m fine with Cole Hamels starting game 7 in Philadlephia on short rest

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Man, what an event that would be. I don’t think there’s ever been a Game 7 for baseball in Philadelphia.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

If you include five-gamers, only one double-elimination baseball game has ever been played in Philadelphia: Game 5 of the 1981 NLDS vs. Montreal. Steve Rogers shut out the Phillies and defeated Steve Carlton, 3-0.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Weird, that confused me for a minute until I looked up the 81 playoffs to see that the ‘strike year’ had an extra round of playoffs not normally played :)

The 1981 season was a separate case. A mid-season player’s strike split the season in half and upset fans – some of which still remain discontent with our national pastime. Major League Baseball hoped to recoup some of the lost revenue and win back the disinterested fans so an extra level of playoff games were played.

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

True

That series is hidden from lots of records (on ESPN for instance) as evidenced by the discussion yesterday that said the last Phillies shutout in the postseason was 1983 (correct, the final game of the 1983 World Series) but stated that the last time it happened against a National League team was in 1980 (game three of the LCS vs. the Astros) ignoring the Expos series.

by phillyinportland on Oct 20, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, didn’t mean short rest – he’d be on normal rest right? I prefer cole on normal rest for game 7 than halladay on short rest (plus at that point i’m ok with looking ahead to your game 1 starter)

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes normal rest. He’d have today through Saturday off.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

and I don’t think Matt Cain would do as well in CBP this time around

by cyhamels on Oct 20, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. I hope we get to see it.

by Screen Name 20 on Oct 20, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Cole went Tuesday

So wednesday, thursday, saturday, sunday

Sunday would be his 5th day

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I realized that after the fact. My whole point since the end of yesterday was that i preferred R2C pictching on full days rest than rushing them back, even if phils down 3-1

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, if Blanton loses tonight, the series shifts in the Giants favor, but the Giants still have to beat 3 very good pitchers, on full rest

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

So would the Phillies.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Oct 20, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

The Giants are over-performing

The Phillies are underperforming

it’ll even out

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Hope it does pretty quickly!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Oct 20, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Option #3

4. Halladay (SR)
5. Blanton
6. Oswalt
7. Halladay(SR)

Hamels then can tag team (pitch in relief) in either G6 or G7. Just another option, not saying it is any better. The key really is, do you believe that Halladay will be a worse pitcher pitching on SR, and if so – by how much. Giving Halladay two more starts is very tempting and it can be done without having to give ANY of the other starters a SR start.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2010 12:50 PM EDT reply actions

Oswalt = Oswalt
Blanton = Blanton
Halladay (SR) < Halladay (FR)

Halladay (SR x2) > Hamels (FR)? I would beg to differ.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps, but who are you differing with? :)

Which day would be Hamels off day to throw?

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I think going out of your way to match up Blanton with Lincecum would be unwise.

Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry

by jctGamer on Oct 20, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Let’s take a look at it then…

Blanton(4)/Halladay(5) Scenario
Blanton vs Bumgraner Win Prob G4: 0.45
Halladay vs Lincecum Win Prob G5: 0.50

Odds of Phillies sweep: 22.5%
Odds of split: 50.0%
Odds of Giants sweep: 27.5%
Expected number of wins E(Wins) = 0.95

Halladay(4)/Blanton(5) Scenario
Halladay vs Bumgarner Win Prob G4: 56%
Blanton vs Lincecum Win Prob G4: 39%

Odds of Phillies sweep: 21.84%
Odds of split: 48.68%
Odds of Giants sweep: 26.84%
Expected number of wins E(Wins) = 0.92

So, likely not much of a measureable difference between the two scenarios. I think most of it will be psychological. If Game #5 is Hamels turn to throw in the pen, then maybe you go Blanton for five then Hamels for two plus and that helps offset any diminished win probability from Halladay going on short rest. If that isn’t Hamels regular day to throw then the above stands with around a 0.03 drop in expected wins of those two games. If you feel my win probability estimates are off, the exercise can easily be redone with your own numbers.

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Messed up transposing the 2nd scenario numbers – oops.

Should read.

Halladay(4)/Blanton(5) Scenario
Halladay vs Bumgarner Win Prob G4: 56%
Blanton vs Lincecum Win Prob G4: 39%

Odds of Phillies sweep: 21.84%
Odds of split: 51.32%
Odds of Giants sweep: 26.84%
Expected number of wins E(Wins) = 0.95

So, it is exactly the same for both. Doesn’t matter on the order. It is all psychological. What matters is how much will starting on SR diminish Halladay.

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Then this only supports TP’s assertion. Given that there is some unknown risk in SR diminishing a Halladay performance, Blanton is the way to go.

"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)

by bandwagonesque on Oct 20, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Perhaps. The coaching staff and pitcher know better and have apparently decided that Halladay would diminish too much. My main point when I started this was that there was another option where you didn’t have Oswalt and Hamels both on short rest. There is a reasonable option where only Halladay is on short rest.

by Xeifrank on Oct 20, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly Blanton seriously scares me. For some reason the Giants can hit Halladay and Hamels but they can’t touch Blanton. That’s what it’s been like. He ties the hitters into knots and I admit that I’m very nervous. All the talk about the Giants going to the WS that I’ve been hearing (Not MCC but on the radio and stuff) has really made me uncomfortable, especially because they overlook Blanton. IMO Blanton is the type of pitcher that the Giants never seem to figure out. I’m hoping this isn’t true today but we’ll see. Here’s to hoping that it’s a good game today.

"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller

t's Posey time!!

Screw you Flannery.

by sanfrankid on Oct 20, 2010 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

You have to let Blanton start Game 4. If you win you put the Giants in position to have to beat H2O 2 out of 3 again (yes, they did it in Games 1 and 3 – but I can’t imagine them – Doc especially – letting it happen again). And if the sky does fall and we go down 3-1, we still have the best front of the rotation in baseball on full rest.

Let us not also forget that Blanton’s one start this season against the Giants (6.1 IP 2 Runs 7Ks) is better than the starts both Halladay and Hamels had against San Francisco coming into the series.

The real question is Ibanez. I know Charlie said it’s too late to switch things around too drastically – but you know Victorino and Rollins hit better against lefties. Utley and Ruiz have this season too and, while they hit better against righties, the difference with Howard, Werth, and Polanco is negligible. I think you have to consider benching Ibanez. For the season, he doesn’t hit lefties too much worse than righties but his OBP goes down by 60 and he looks lost right now. Is it sacreligious to ponder over Ben Francisco’s .284/.344/.557 clip against lefties this season?

by Vortex7 on Oct 20, 2010 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

Ibanez-Francisco

I’d be OK with that. I wouldn’t bench Ibanez beyond today, however. Ibanez is just a very streaky guy. Any game could be the game where he starts a new streak.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

and many games could be the game where he continues his bad streak.

When I think “streaky” player, I tend to think recent performance is indicative of immediate results. I don’t count on the toggle button flipping.

by Bilzo on Oct 20, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

If you win you put the Giants in position to have to beat H2O 2 out of 3 again (yes, they did it in Games 1 and 3 – but I can’t imagine them – Doc especially – letting it happen again). And if the sky does fall and we go down 3-1, we still have the best front of the rotation in baseball on full rest.

I am sorry but this reasoning is really bad in my mind. Yeah we would have to face “H2O” again but you would have to face our front three again too! And our front three are just as good as your front three.

Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly

by say hey nation on Oct 20, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

No – they aren’t

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Glad we cleared that up.

Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly

by say hey nation on Oct 20, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

reminds me of the arguments I had in kindergarden

by Off_The_Hook on Oct 20, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m talking long term

I’ll take Halladay over Lincecum
I’ll take Hamels over Cain
I’ll take Oswalt over Sanchez

The reasons for the phillies being behind 2-1 in this series are primarily not related to the starting pitching in so much as the offense laid a bigger egg than dino on the flintstones

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

The reasons for the phillies being behind 2-1 in this series are primarily not related to the starting pitching in so much as the offense laid a bigger egg than dino on the flintstones

That might have something to do with the Giants pitching. :P

Also I couldn’t decide on Halladay v. Lincecum, or Hamels v. Cain but going forward I would rather have Sanchez over Oswalt.

Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly

by say hey nation on Oct 20, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Also I couldn’t decide on Halladay v. Lincecum, or Hamels v. Cain but going forward I would rather have Sanchez over Oswalt.

Which is odd given that Oswalt has looked the best for us so far, and Sanchez the worst, in this series anyway.

Not to mention, I would take Oswalts track record over Sanchez’ any day.

"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard

by EREX21 on Oct 20, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions

1st. One game

2nd going forward Oswalt is older and doesn’t have the same electric stuff as sanchez

Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly

by say hey nation on Oct 20, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Electric stuff is great, but there is a downside when the pitcher can’t command it.

Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.

by doubleh on Oct 20, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

The only reason to take Sanchez over Oswalt (in my mind) is that Sanchez career is much farther from the end than Oswalts

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Going forward

I’d take Lincecum over Halladay and Sanchez over Oswalt, but only because of youth. Right now, Lincecum and Halladay is basically a push, and I’d take Oswalt over Sanchez. Sanchez has better stuff, but Oswalt’s is pretty nasty too and his command is much better. Hamels over Cain.

by phatj on Oct 20, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the Phillies front three has a slight edge, actually, although it’s close.

Anyway, I think a way to re-state what Vortex might have been trying to say is that pitching Blanton gives us more risk up front with a potential payoff down the road. I don’t think this increases or decreases our overall odds, but if the Phillies win tonight things will be looking good.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

And the giants take more risk pitching madison today instead of bringing Lincecum back on short rest.

Either way a manager is going to be second guessed

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, thanks (taco) pal

My point, that may have been muddled up by my stupidity is that

A. Blanton isn’t a bad option. And he’s shown that in previous post seasons, the latter portion of this season, and his lone start against San Fran this year.

B. It doesn’t matter what Blanton does if we don’t start hitting.

Don’t get me wrong – this is as much a must-win game as we’ve played all year and Blanton, obviously, isn’t the idea choice for such a situation. But I do give the Phillies a slight edge in the pitching matchups for Games 5,6, and 7 and so while it’d be improbable to come back from 3-1, it wouldn’t be as impossible as it would be for other teams. But then if we do win tonight, which I have a sneaky good feeling about, we’re back to 2-2 with our Top 3 on regular rest (something that haven’t experienced yet this postseason.)

by Vortex7 on Oct 20, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree. I think the talent is equal, however stability gives the Phillie’s the edge overall. By that I mean that the Giants pitchers can and often pitch better than the Phillies but they also pitch worse than the Phillies, and they do that a lot.

Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly

by say hey nation on Oct 20, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Wouldn’t it be funny if Blanton-Bumgarner turned out to be the 1-0 pitcher’s duel we’ve all been waiting for? And there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be, if you think about it.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

Double no hitters with a pinch hit homerun by Domonic Brown in the top of the 9th

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Blanton throws balls in a forward motion towards the catcher

Historically, players like that have given the Giants offense trouble. It’s exactly the type of player we didn’t want to face in an important game.

by jctGamer on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

As opposed to the pitcher who...

faces the outfield and throws the ball backwards over his head?

by hunterfan on Oct 20, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

Wow, really, you didn’t get it huH?

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Obviously...

My joke reply to his joke failed?

by hunterfan on Oct 20, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

just looked it up… they’re undefeated in those starts

by cyhamels on Oct 20, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Cliff Lee could do that.

Contreras and I were just looking at him eating this iguana thing over white rice and he put it away like it was a double cheeseburger, you know?

by LeepinLizardz on Oct 20, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Neither Blanton nor Halladay are going to win/lose this game

It’s all on the Phillies offense. It’s time for them to wake up and do some damage against the Giants #4 starter.

If they can’t, then it doesn’t matter who you pitch today, the Phils are going to lose the game.

by hunterfan on Oct 20, 2010 1:13 PM EDT reply actions

I know you probably didn’t mean this literally, but this is an overstatement. You can win with a bad offense, and if your offense scores 1 or 2 runs, your pitcher can win or lose the game depending on whether he gives up 0 or 3.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

The larger point being..

The Phillies offense has to wake up if they are going to win the series. I feel the onus is going to be on them today and the rest of the series. If they wake up, Blanton pitching today is not a problem. If they don’t, I don’t see the Phils winning this series anyway.

by hunterfan on Oct 20, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I've been

telling myself to wait until the end of game 4 to start panicking (if we lose), but I fear that if we are down 3-0 in the 6th, I’ll already start to panic…and drink…

by Off_The_Hook on Oct 20, 2010 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

I would have started Halladay

because then you also get him in game seven

Watch The Internet Sport Show
Read about the MLB at Total Bases
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
Join the Lacrosse community The Lacrosse Blog

by bestbostonsports on Oct 20, 2010 2:00 PM EDT reply actions

On short rest

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

right

but 3 days rest is better than 2

by bestbostonsports on Oct 20, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

And regular rest is better for all 3 pitchers

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for taking the time to read the post.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

you are welcome

I just figured Id post this here, it seems important.

by bestbostonsports on Oct 20, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

That was sarcasm. You clearly didn’t read the post very carefully.

by taco pal on Oct 20, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

I just used sarcasm too.

by bestbostonsports on Oct 20, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions

No you didn’t, you just used foot in mouth

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

what

by bestbostonsports on Oct 20, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

San Francisco -- Look out!

HEY HEY HEY….HEY HEY HEY….

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WT-fxBNKs8

You’ve got a Panda, but the Phillies have a slimmed down Joe Blanton, and HE’S HUNGRY! He’s going to eat all of you alive!!! RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!

I am not a witch.

by RememberthePhitans on Oct 20, 2010 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

I’m fine with giving Cookies a go. He’s an adequate starter. I’m just thinking worst case….
If you start Halladay on short rest and lose, you’ve really dug yourself a hole.

by Bilzo on Oct 20, 2010 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

I do not understand why so many act like Halladay is going to save this team...

He is a pitcher, and a great one, but San Fran has shown that they can hit him- his combined line for the two Giants games this year is awful by his standards:

14 IP 18H 9R 9ER 0 BB 12 K 3 HR – Opponent ERA 5.78.

Granted he could come out tomorrow and surprise me- he is one of the best pitchers in the league, and three sub-par outings for him against one team sounds far fetched. But sending him put there on short rest sounds like a recipe for disaster.

by dannijd on Oct 20, 2010 3:00 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the game right now (arguably) so that might have something to do with it

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions

and that’s one baaaad outing coupled with two respectable ones I believe.

by Bilzo on Oct 20, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Only two outings. My point is that while Halladay is a great pitcher, the Giants know how to hit him effectively when he is rested- if he is any less effective due to short rest it could cause him to be less able to fight them off.

by dannijd on Oct 20, 2010 3:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I disagree with your basic premise

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually,

a less effective Halladay might be better than a fully rested one against the Giants.

If Halladay were a bit wild and more off the strike zone, he’d get more swinging (read: flailing) strikes against them. His problem with the Giants is that he’s always near the strike zone and the Giants are always swinging. The Giants have a lot of bad ball hitters and eventually get lucky and run into a few against him. What makes him so good against most teams hampers him against the free swinging Giants.

by Cixelsyd on Oct 20, 2010 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions

an interesting point

I would be interested in seeing if Halladay has better numbers over his career against more free-swinging teams—obviously it makes sense anecdotally, but I wonder if the numbers back it up.

by perfectdepth on Oct 20, 2010 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Surprise, surprise, but Missanelli is vocal against Blanton. Does not want a ‘6 inning pitcher’ in a must-win game.

I blame the guy down the hall who has the radio on in his office.

"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)

by bandwagonesque on Oct 20, 2010 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

Is he playing it at an acceptable volume?

Did you steal his stapler?

by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Missing the first hour of the game.

Big Joe…fuck shit up…

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 4:59 PM EDT reply actions

Big Joe and the Watery Bunch

inter arma enim silent leges

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 20, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

Calling all Philly BATS!

If the Phillies show up with their BATS then we will win this series. If not, it doesn’t matter which pitchers you put in. Blanton is the right choice for tonight. GO PHILLIES BATS!

by Fillyfaninforeignland on Oct 20, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions

heard a comment on the radio that i thought was interesting

if it’s a san fran vs texas WS, would a replay of last year’s WS on TBS be watched more than this year’s WS? I’m thinking locally last year’s would be watched more, although not by a whole lot, and nationally probably this year’s would be watched more.

by Off_The_Hook on Oct 20, 2010 5:15 PM EDT reply actions