Unhappy With the Post-Season Offense? This Is Your 2010 Phillies
Six games into the post-season, the Phillies' offense has struggled. Last night's shutout, the first shutout in Phillies post-season history since 1983, has put fans in a tizzy.
Where is the offense? How can Raul Ibanez be this bad? How can Chase Utley be so un-clutch? Why doesn't Ryan Howard get any of his hits when they matter? Are we past the expiration date on Jimmy Rollins? What good are Jayson Werth's long at-bats? What good are Carlos Ruiz's on-base skills when the person hitting behind him is an automatic out (whether a pitcher or pinch hitter)? When will Shane Victorino regain some pop in his bat? Putting aside Sunday night's performance, is Placido Polanco the worst number 3 hitter in playoff history?
For a team that is known for its offense, watching the team score 3.7 runs per game and get only 6.5 hits per game in the games that matter most is painful.
But the clause at the beginning of that sentence is the key here. Even if the 2010 Phillies are a team that should be known for its offense, it should not be known for being a consistent offense. In fact, the 2010 Phillies' offense is one that should be known for doing just what it's doing right now: going through big slumps where almost everyone looks horrendous. As I wrote in my preview of the NLDS in listing reasons why the Reds might win:
2) A slump-prone offense. The Phillies offense did pretty well this year, all things considered. But, it suffered through some serious bouts of offensive ineptitude. In over 20% of the Phillies' games (34 games), the team scored 0 or 1 run. The team had five completely separate 4-game stretches in which it scored a total of 9 runs or less, a different 6-game stretch in which it scored only 13 runs, and an incredible 9-game stretch in which they scored 11 runs, including three straight shutouts by the Mets (the Mets!). This offense can go cold when it most needs to be hot, as evidenced by the 9 total runs it scored from September 22 through September 26 when it was trying to clinch the NL East (although, thanks to great pitching, the Phillies split those four games).
The team is going through one of these slumps right now, albeit what it's going through now is not nearly as bad as other stretches it's been through this year.
The positive to take from this is that no one on the team is beyond a bounce back. Despite scoring only 0 or 1 run in over 20% of the team's game, the team scored the seventh most runs in baseball and the second most in the NL. There's no doubt that the talent on this team can pull through. But at the same time, what we're seeing is that having this offensive talent does not foreclose the possibility of prolonged droughts.
All this is to say that if you're unhappy with the team's offense right now, what you're really unhappy with is the 2010 Phillies' offense as a whole, because what the team is doing now is the same thing it's been doing all year.
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In over 20% of the Phillies’ games (34 games), the team scored 0 or 1 run.
Do we have an idea how that compares to the rest of the league?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:07 PM EDT reply actions
I’ll look up info related to that soon, but here’s a data point in comparison to past Phillies’ teams from my seasons by the numbers post two weeks ago: 11 – shutouts against the Phillies this year, the most since 1998 (also 11).
by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah yes, but this is the ‘year of the pitcher’. I’m not trying to start trouble just curious as to the ‘slumpness’ of the phillies offense relative to the ‘slumpness’ of say, the NL West teams who are notorious for their low productive offenses.
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
The Phillies had the fourth-most 0 or 1 run games and are the only team of the top 10 run scoring teams to have anywhere near this many 0 or 1 run games. Here’s a list (not sure what the format is going to look like here) of teams by 0 or 1 run games (second column) with total runs in third column and rank of total runs in fourth column:
SEA 43 513 30
CHN 39 685 18
LAN 38 668 21
PHI 34 772 8
BAL 33 613 27
SFN 33 697 17
WAS 33 655 25
SDN 32 665 22
ANA 31 681 19
HOU 31 611 28
NYN 30 656 24
PIT 30 587 29
SLN 30 736 14
ARI 29 713 16
CLE 29 646 26
FLO 29 719 15
KCA 28 676 20
COL 27 774 7
OAK 27 663 23
TOR 27 755 9
MIL 26 752 10
ATL 25 740 13
TBA 25 802 3
MIN 24 781 6
CIN 23 791 4
CHA 22 752 10
DET 22 752 10
TEX 21 787 5
BOS 17 818 2
NYA 17 859 1
by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but look who is at #6 :) only one game behind the phillies :)
Texas and New York down there at the bottom, that’s a disconcerting fact for another time.
The Giants offense has been damn near explosive (for them) and still hasn’t scored tons of runs. the phils were 8th in total runs, the giants 17th.
I’m still confident and comfortable that the’odds’ are in the phillies favor, but even ‘one week’ of games is a small sample size
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly – and SF is an offense that is generally regarded as not very good. The point of this chart is the company the Phillies are keeping – pretty mediocre to bad offenses.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
The number of low-scoring games is indicative of what you describe as a slump-prone offense. But even considering the small sample size, you can’t say the Phillies are the only ones in the LCS with this problem. Right now the Phillies have outscored the Giants, 9-8, and the Yankees have scored only 11 runs in four games. I know the team didn’t score a lot of runs in the Reds series either, but part of that I chalk up to playing the games quickly to get back on the field for Halladay’s and Hamels’ gems. They really didn’t act like they had to concentrate on their hitting those two games, and runs came fairly easily in the other one. The upshot is that it has been many weeks now since the offense was “needed” and it’s not that easy to flick the switch, as we’ve seen a number of times over the last two seasons.
by phillyinportland on Oct 20, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m glad I can’t say that the Phillies are the only team in the LCS with this problem, because I never did!
by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t mean to imply that. Sorry. That “you” was just for general purposes of pointing out that three of the four teams still playing aren’t scoring much. That said, only one of the three is leading its series and that could be a fluke based on the Philles’ failures as much as because the Giants played better.
by phillyinportland on Oct 20, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This is interesting
I remember arguing with other fans online about the Phillies offense in ca 2003 – 07, when they were always up near the league leaders in runs – people used to say that they were a feast or famine offense, but it really wasn’t true, they were pretty average in consistency.
Now they’ve dropped in total runs and gotten more inconsistent.
Based on these statistics, the world series is going to have a lot of blow outs no matter who shows up :)
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know… The Yankees are one of the scoring-est teams in the league, but you would not know it to watch them. In a short series, anything can happen.
by dannijd on Oct 20, 2010 4:39 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And look! Anything is!
It’s well documented that scoring across the MLB board is down.
We play in a pitcher – friendly (Hi, Ryan!) park with, you know, some fair – to – middlin’ pitchers.
Still, I suspect the series will continue to Citizens.
You know, for that fabled Game Six.
Not a member or affiliated with McCOVEY CHRONICLES in ANY way/shape/form.
Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 20, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
As a Giants' fan
I am pleased by the Phillies inability to score runs, while frozen in the fetal position, expecting the worst at any moment.
I’m guessing they’ll figure it out, but hoping it won’t happen until Friday.
the fuckin' fratellis
by ZenPop on Oct 20, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
It's funny
No one seems to mention this, they just assume it must be that the Phillies are in a slump, instead of that the Giants pitching has shut them down. Look what happened the other night when the Phillies got into the middle of the Giants bullpen, they hit well.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 20, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
No one seems to mention this
Incorrect
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay I'll re-phrase
Very few people seem to mention this. Did you see Kruk and Valentine on ESPN talking about how the Phillies offense was ready to erupt and the Giants had been somewhat lucky to this point?
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 20, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No, but that’s because I know better to watch ESPN for any sort of informed opinion, or to care much about what they say
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, who’s mentioning it then? I’d love to read their stuff.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 20, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd come to your defense, GT...
…but I suspect that would be a b-a-a-ad idea.
Not a member or affiliated with McCOVEY CHRONICLES in ANY way/shape/form.
Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 20, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree to some extent
Against Lincecum and Sanchez I’d tend to agree as neither had their best stuff, but Cain yesterday seemed like it didn’t matter who came to the plate.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Oct 20, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously the Giants’ pitching is part of the issue, but the Phillies have proven they can hit good pitching. They can also slump against it. Just like they can also hit bad pitching and they can also slump against it.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 20, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It's pretty simple
Start hitting better than .100 with RISP or plan your tee times for the weekend. There’s really no excuse for being down in this series, time to buck up and start playing like you need to earn the pennant, not have it handed to you.
I’ll miss you most of all scarecrow
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I see you more as the Tin Man than Dorothy. She’s a little too polyanna.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Well the cowardly lion was my great uncle but no one was really going to oz for common sense…
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Holy Hanna
Really tempted to quote Jimmy from a league of their own, but they lost that game
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Avoid the clap?
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I know which one you were referring to, but I didn’t want to be a serial joke killer and say it anyway.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Well you were doubly awesome as you didn’t quote a jimmy dugan line :)
I would have gone with there’s no crying in baseball
THat’s just a great scene. I’m sorry sir, she’s crying
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I just saw this as well
I think it’s the right call. hopefully it works out.
by perfectdepth on Oct 20, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Give the SFG some credit, here
The inability to score may result from the fact that the Giants have the highest ERA+ in MLB and the second best defense. Combined with the slumpy tendencies of the Phillies, you have an offensive nightmare in the making. The SFG offense is slightly below league average, btw. It is far from the worst.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010.shtml
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 20, 2010 4:44 PM EDT reply actions
You're right. Phillies isn't only one now.
The SF Giants have been doing it to basically everybody for almost 2 months now. There was longest stretch of allowing opponents 3 runs or less in entire baseball’s modern era, then closed off September with a 1.5 starting ERA.
Barry Zito has failed a few games, but actually pitched pretty well overall this season. If the staff wasn’t so ridiculous, it wouldn’t been much harder to leave him off the roster.
Giants FIP: 3.58, Phillies: 3.28
Lincecum FIP: 5.91; Halladay: 4.91
Sanchez: 2.37; Oswalt: 3.70
Cain: 3.91; Hamels: 1.03 (!!!!)
In each game, the team who’s starter (and team, too) had the lower FIP lost because that was offset by the other team benefiting from BABIP more than the other team.
Game 1: Giants: .411; Phillies: .357
Game 2: Giants: .176; Phillies .470
Game 3: Giants: .277; Phillies .150.
So it’s easy to go too far with the Giants are totally out-pitching the Phillies meme." And it’s why the playoffs are largely a crapshoot.
the wheez kids
this is what happens when you ride the horse until it drops… the entire batting order is over the hill… just sayin… but maybe they can find a way to squeeze this out with some great pitching!!!! i hope so!!!!
by Elmo the faithful fan on Oct 20, 2010 6:13 PM EDT reply actions
the entire batting order is over the hill… just sayin
Sarah Palin is smart enough to be president
Just sayin
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you don’t believe that.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Well no, but who in their right mind believes the entire batting order is over the hill?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m ok with going into a hitting slump in the post season. We’ve done well in spite of it. But the time to break out of it and go on a hot streak is NOW!!! I don’t want to be down 3-1 in the series, even though I know we could still pull it out. I don’t want to even run that risk. And for Pete’s sake do NOT throw Cody Ross anything low and inside!!!! Why can’t they see this guy loves those pitches and he’s responsible for all of their runs in this series except maybe 2? The most important thing to remember is it takes 4 to move on so until SF has 4 I ain’t counting this team out. Ever.
Joe Pesci wants to know if he’s a clown to you?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 20, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

































