From Darkness, Hope: The Phillies Can Still Win This
by WholeCamels on Oct 21, 2010 11:24 AM EDT
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Okay, so I'm not going to come at you all Pollyanna-ish and tell you that things are going great for the Phillies. They're not, this is pretty bad, and they practically have to draw an inside straight to win this thing, having fallen behind three games to one and facing down Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain on full rest. The Phillies do have more than just the faintest, hypothetical wisp of hope. Consider:
1. Six teams have come back from 1-3 deficits to win the LCS since the series went to seven games in 1985: The 1985 Royals, the 1986 Red Sox, the 1996 Braves, the 2003 Marlins, the 2004 Red Sox and the 2007 Red Sox.
The 2007 Red Sox are probably our closest comparable here. They were, arguably, the best wire-to-wire team in baseball that season. Like the Phillies, they fell behind an excellent Cleveland Indians ballclub three games to one, and sent their ace, Josh Beckett, against the Indians' ace and 2007 Cy Young Award winner, C.C. Sabathia, in a Game Five in Cleveland. If they won, the Red Sox would take the series back to Boston. Sabathia was less than sharp, allowing four runs and ten hits in six innings, while Josh Beckett struck out 11 and allowed one run in eight innings to add another line to his formidable postseason resume. In Boston, the reinvigorated Red Sox clobbered the Indians by scores of 12-2 and 11-2, en route to their second AL Pennant and then World Championship of the decade.
Tonight in San Francisco it's another battle of the aces as Roy Halladay takes on defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. And while Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain are probably a good bit better than the Indians' Game Six and Seven starters Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook, the return home could boost the Phillies' chances, especially against fly-ball pitcher Matt Cain.
2. Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels are awfully good pitchers. The starters were first (2.92), eighth (3.45), and seventh (3.43) in the National League in xFIP in 2010. SIERA likes them all quite a bit as well (Halladay 2.93, Oswalt 3.33, Hamels 3.19). All three are pitchers with terrific swing-and-miss stuff, who can dominate any given game.
Yes, so are Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, but the fact remains that the Phillies have the horses to stay in this thing. If they lose, it won't be for want of starting pitching.
3. The bats are coming around. Yes, the team has yet to hit a home run since Carlos Ruiz and Jayson Werth went deep in Game One. And yes, Chase Utley is currently sporting a .133/.278/.133 line. But the Phillies had some really solid at-bats last night, and stroked three doubles. And it's not like the Giants are hitting particularly well; each team has scored just 14 runs in the series.
4. Home Field Advantage goes back to the Phillies if they can scratch out a win tonight. It's unproveable and I freely admit that it's borderline junk commentary, but it will be pretty hard to convince me that the boisterous postseason crowds at Citizens Bank Park don't get into the opponents' heads just a little bit. Witness C.C. Sabathia's 2008 NLDS meltdown, and Andy Sonnanstine's World Series egg, not the mention the three runs that the Phillies managed to scrape together against a red-hot Tim Lincecum in Game One, including his first two homer game since August 5th. I'm not going to say that it's a huge edge, or otherwise determinative, but it's something, and every little bit helps.
5. Lastly, and perhaps more importantly, baseball is weird and unpredictable. A seven game series is far too short to project anything. The Phillies have three really good pitchers going against the Giants' three really good pitchers. If the Phillies' offense can improve just a little bit, and the starting pitching holds the line this thing is winnable.
Do it.
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BA v. OBP
Everyone keeps pointing to the team’s horrible batting average in the LCS. And yes, it is bad. It’s .216, which is the lowest of the four teams. But that masks the fact that the team is getting on base. The Phillies have a .317 OBP. While that’s still not stellar, it beats the hell out of the Giants’ .287 OBP and is tied with the Yankees.
So the team’s problem isn’t batting average or getting on base. The team’s problem is a complete power outage. It has a .328 SLG, which is the lowest of the four teams.
Basically, the team is getting them on, but it’s not moving them around. You need both to score.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 21, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
On thing to keep in mind about the Phillies hitting
I don’t think it should come as a surprise that both teams bats came alive last night since both teams sent out their #4 pitcher. If the Phillies want to win, their bats have to do something against Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, which they really haven’t done so far. Of course, the Giants bats haven’t done a lot either against Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels.
Don't trust this guy. He lies.
Ah hope, you bring me back from the abyss that is cynicism, and cradle me, rocking me back and forth telling me this is far from over
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 21, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Have we decided yet, why Werth wasn’t sacrificed over with none out in the top of the 8th, perhaps giving us the lead?
And as much as we’d like to point to the team’s hitting as an issue, the fact remains that 3 of these games were very winnable. The first game featured an Ibanez error at the wall, allowing 2 runs to come in and score (1 on that play). The 2nd game we won, and last night was purely a coaching brainfart, one of many brainfarts but this one being deadliest of them all so far. Mismanagement of Durbin, no sense of urgency to take the lead in the 8th after Werth doubled. It is what it is, but the hitting can’t be the scapegoat. It’s really been taking a massive shit in a facet of each game that has lead to the demise. This team can, however, manage to take a minor piss in its oatmeal, perhaps slightly faltering ine one facet whilst being flawless in the others. This is what I tell myself after after a proper morning period of 12 hours
Blaming the umps doesn’t do shit for the Phils. It’s been an overall team effort in losing these games, and potentially winning them too
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 21, 2010 11:40 AM EDT reply actions
In retrospect
If it all went the same after the rollins bunt, werth would not have scored anyways. However, it might not have gone the same. That being said Rollins actually has been hitting the ball well the past few games. I think Manuel just trusted Rollins to get a big hit there. Unfortunately, it did not happen. Probably should have played the percentages there though.
by PhilsForever on Oct 21, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Kruk’s argument post game was that if werth was on 3rd, the approach to the hitters might have changed – who knows
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
also he was throwing nothing but sliders. man on third maybe he tenses up and a slider goes in the dirt for a wild pitch or opts to throw a fastball even. cant compare the situations
True
But we have to agree, both Francisco and Carlos Ruiz’s at-bats were pretty atrocious in that inning, those sliders were well off the plate that they kept swinging at. Wish they would have shown more patience.
by PhilsForever on Oct 21, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Ruiz' AB
It was a twist on the “going up the ladder” approach in that the ladder was horizontal.
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by victor frankenstein on Oct 21, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
No. Romo hung a slider to Howard and Werth which they crushed. Rollins and Ruiz were up there hacking hoping they would get one. They saw slider and swung.
Francisco’s was too in that Posey set up waaaay outside on that one.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 12:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
2008 Rolins bunts Jenkins over to 3rd after Jenkins hit a no out double ….parallel universe, bizarro enterprise….
Crazy huh? More crazy is Rollins made the decision to bunt not Manuel. Hmmmmm.
RE with man on 2rd , no outs = 1.189
RE with man on 3rd, 1 out = .983
RE with man on 2nd 1 out = .725
It would seem in that park, with that BP, Werth and Rollins speed it might not be a bad idea .These are not adjusted for the run/game of a team so these values may be a little off. Bunting is a complex subject . T.Tango’s The Book has a excellent chapter devoted to the bunt and the best ways to use it.
Have we decided yet, why Werth wasn’t sacrificed over with none out in the top of the 8th, perhaps giving us the lead?
Cause Jimmy Rollins just sucks right now?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
Fat Kruk felt that it was the turning point of the game, but sending Ruiz probably had some turning point factors
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Johnny One Ball. Hell of a play by Posey on that, but it put a bit of a damper on the rally, especially since he would have scored anyway shortly after that (obviously you don’t know that at the time). Sending the slowest guy on the team may have been somewhat foolhardy.
Ok, but Ruiz is not the slowest guy on a team that has Raul Ibanez :)
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Picking nits there
I don’t think either one is winning many foot races.
And I think Ibañez beats Ruiz in a foot race.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 5:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, to be fair
Who the hell thought Rowand would’ve made that good of a throw?
by Screen Name 20 on Oct 21, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
My gut told me the game was over after the Giants got their 5th run last night. Took one more run but I had accepted the loss at that point. Manuel’s bullpen management still is a concern but I was confident that the phillies still had a better than 50% chance to win the series even if they lost game 4, and I still am. The loss last night, no matter how it came, doesn’t change my confidence in the pitching staff and the performance of the offense seemed improved slightly.
Though if Chase doesn’t pull his head out of his arse at the plate, my confidence will dim. Maybe he needs to go back to 3?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 11:43 AM EDT reply actions
from a Fangraphs Review of the game
At this point, some of the blame must rest squarely on the Phillies’ stars. In this game, Chase Utley put up a -10.8% in win probability by going one for five and not coming through in some key moments. That comes on the heels of a -12% in game three (0-for-4), +3.8% in game two (0-for-3 with two walks), and a -1.8% in game one (1-for-3 with a walk). It’s obviously just a poor four-game stretch for a great secondbaseman, but it’s also bad timing for that stretch….
which compounded with the errors just paints an ugly picture. I don’t know if going back to 3rd in the line-up would make a real difference at this point.
Since there’s no indication from any one with any reliable connection to the team what is wrong with Chase, I’m just throwing crap against the wall and hoping it stinks.
I don’t believe the phillies can win this series if Chase continues his poor at bats when you factor in that Rollins is also completely lost at the plate, Ibanez will be back soon and he’s been piss poor.
I have faith in the pitching, but if the offense doesn’t turn around, the series ends today and if ‘shaking things up’ really works, todays the day
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Utley
I can’t believe Utley is playing this poorly. He is lost out there. Everyone goes through slumps but he cant even field the position right now. Is anyone else extremely pissed about the fact that he has major fielding problems in the playoffs every year? I just dont get it. He’s one of the best fielding 2b in the league all year then in the playoffs he can’t make a routine double play throw, or field a ground ball. Utley has done a hell of a lot for this team during his career, but lets call it for what it is right now: dude is shitting the bed
I don’t know that I would go so far as to say that he is a lost cause in the field. He has two (and it should be three) errors in the field this playoffs. One of them was a throwing error on a ball that winds up in right field most of the time (Reds game). The other one in the Reds game was less excusable, but crap happens- even the best are going to make errors.
As for the two almost errors in Tuesday’s game- the first one is a ball that many second basemen don’t get near enough to to even look like they have a play- frustrating because he was so close, but that ball is in right field much more often than not. The second one was infuriating- combining that with the ball that Rollins had problems with in the seventh yesterday- makes me wonder if there is something about the ground there that causes the ball to take some weird hops- the Giants are less prone to problems because they play there 81 games a year, but for a team coming in, there could be trouble?
I did not see his fielding in the early parts of the game yesterday. Did something else go wrong?
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 3:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s a little bit too close for comfort
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
No worse than anybody else on the team, particularly looking at OBP… he is still walking at something approaching his normal rate, and is putting the ball in play- it is not like he is up there striking out a ton and looking lost- he has hit some balls solid only to have the BABIP fairy take it away.
BABIP doesn’t mean shit if you’re popping the ball up or rolling it over to the second basemen. Most overrated complex stat in baseball is BABIP. Sure he knows the strike zone, but that doesn’t mean he’s swinging a good bat. Shit you could throw Barry Bonds up there 15 years from now and if you throw him 4 balls he’s going to walk to first.
He’s not smirking as much at the plate either. I wonder if he’s distracted…did his cat die or something? Is Jen pregnant?
Contreras and I were just looking at him eating this iguana thing over white rice and he put it away like it was a double cheeseburger, you know?
by LeepinLizardz on Oct 21, 2010 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Because we remember painful events better than ones that are ordinary.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, they're definitely more efficient scoring RISP
Philies: 9 runs / 26 baserunners (35%)
Giants: 9 runs / 21 baserunners (43%)
by Screen Name 20 on Oct 21, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
True… However, it is still less than half the time proving selection bias toward the event we don’t want.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 3:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Absolutely, it FEELS like they do it every other time
We probably notice it more b/c we aren’t doing it more often, either.
by Screen Name 20 on Oct 21, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep. it’s really not such an insane discrepancy Everything was heightened by the drama and my disappointment. I will say the first run Posey knocked in was fortunate but hey at least he didn’t K with 2 outs. If you put the ball in play there at least you have a chance to score with a man on 3rd. It did seem that they had their fair share of seeing eye singles to put runners on base or to get runners into scoring position. If a few of those would have been hit to a fielder the game may have had a different outcome.
The giants best player(non-pitcher) Buster Posey was having a bad series by all measures up until the last game where he made play after play to get the giants that win.
Who says Chase can’t do the same tonight…lets do this.
Well it depends on what’s going on with Chase. He’s been bad at the plate and in the field at times. Is he injured? Distracted? Just in a slump? Not saying it can’t happen but without any knowledge of why it is happening comparing it to posey is just wishful thinking
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody knew where Posey’s bat had disappeared to either… Until it showed up. That being said, this has been a really off year for Utley- hopefully it is just that… An off year, and not a sign that he is going to decline fast and hard.
From a fielding perspective, it is all too typical- for as good of a fielder as he is, he has always had his moments of bad fielding- I don’t think he has more than the average, and some probably come from his ability to reach things others wouldn’t, but his general excellence surrounding those moments only makes them more frustrating.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 12:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but Posey was white hot in the series against the Braves. Utley has seemed off the whole postseason, to this point.
True. I think the big question is what should be taken from this going forward (granted irrelevant considering that with three years and 45 million left on his contract, he is here no matter what)- I have been wondering and continue to wonder whether this is a team whose best years are behind it, or whether this is a down year (in terms of hitting) both for them and for baseball as a whole, and is just a normal fluctuation.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 3:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My read of the series is that our guys clearly played a better game in #2, the Giants clearly played a better game in #3, and 1 and 4 were jump balls that went the other guys’ way. Other than using the worthless Durbin with his shit control—admittedly a pretty big caveat—I don’t have a serious problem with any of Manuel’s moves. That loss last night was agonizing, but we’ve played this series essentially even. All that you can hope is that Doc has a masterpiece, the Phils work some good ABs against Lincecum and it gets back home. I’d be lying if I said I was confident, but it’s not a huge stretch.
by dajafi on Oct 21, 2010 12:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
same here, I just hate the fact that I will run through every scenerio possible in my mind of why we will win or lose and drive myself crazy about it up until the first pitch
Smoke this.
Snort this.
Drink this.
No, more.
What do you mean, “Do you want me to drink , snort or smoke more?”
YES!
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Despite all my hoarsely screamed threats SBNation cannot delete them from my profile.
by victor frankenstein on Oct 21, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
All the crybabies are coming out of the wordwork today: Missanelli “team could be best ever but Giants just want it more.” Ugh. People calling the team a disgrace, chokers. Disgusting.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Why are you surprised that MIsanelli is an idiot and the people who call into the radio agree with his idiocy.
This isn’t news.
I’m waiting for the post season calls for Manuels head
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not just the radio; unfortunately, it’s everywhere on the internet, tv, etc. Of course, we all knew it would happen, but it doesn’t make it any easier to take when it finally occurs.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Consider this a good weaning process then. Days like this will help you clear the ‘clutter’ from your internet reading :)
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Particularly since it is untrue (despite what all the pundits said when making their picks, these team’s were amazingly evenly matched). The fact is that the Giants are a great team- roughly the Phillies equal in a number of respects. Their pitching is great, by some measures the equal to the Big 3 in Philadelphia. Hitting has been a struggle for both teams all year, and the team has a history of hitting poorly at AT&T park. Win or lose (both tonight and this series), this team has nothing to be ashamed or embarrassed of. They played well through injuries and a general offensive off year. Would a third trip to the World Series in as many years have been wonderful? Unquestionably. But to call this team a disgrace or chokers if they don’t- shameful… But also the reason that I do not listen to local sports radi
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 1:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Jodi Whatley even called in and said “I told you so”
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Ugh. While the callers on sports radio are often dreadful, I actually find the on air personalities worse in a lot of cases- almost encouraging the behavior, and making it completely impossible to listen to.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 1:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If it didn’t work they wouldn’t do it. You keep listening. Radio, like tv, goes by ratings, so really unless you are a ‘ratings listener’, your opinion really doesn’t matter :)
Some day I’m going to just listen to various sports radio from other parts of the country via internet and compare em.
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d be interested to hear the comparison. Is it really that different on the East Coast? Is it just Philly who tends to be baited by this stuff?
You’re right, though; it’s like marketing to children. Bright boxes on eye levels.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
There’s a station I listen to a lot out here, 710 ESPN (710espn.com) – they’re primarily about basketball (Lakers) but I find them much easier to listen to. Michael Thompson of Laker fame does a show and Mason and Ireland is their ‘late afternoon’ show. It’s not exactly brillianttly insightful but it’s a lot less ‘cruel’ and mean. I mean some of the callers are idiots, but I’ve never been bothered.
Theres a guy in San Diego, hacksaw, double x 1090 that is amazingly ludicrous, hell other shows on his network make fun of him, they’re more football (chargers) focused. That network also has a philly connection (I think) with some guy named Bill Werndel.
KNBR out of San Francisco I only pick up at nights and they have ‘razor and mr t’ and mr t is tom tolbert, and I’ve always found them pretty terrible :)
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually have voted with my feet so to speak about this- I am not one that counts toward their ratings, so they don’t notice- but the only sports radio I listen to is national- I will put MLB’s XM station on at times, and listen to ESPN podcasts- I may not agree with them, but they don’t annoy me nearly so much.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 3:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Win or lose (both tonight and this series), this team has nothing to be ashamed or embarrassed of. They played well through injuries and a general offensive off year. Would a third trip to the World Series in as many years have been wonderful? Unquestionably. But to call this team a disgrace or chokers if they don’t- shameful…
My thoughts exactly. I am proud of this team, regardless of what happens tonight. They battled against injuries and slumps that would have sunk other teams…and still ended up with the best record in baseball.They’ve given us a heck of a ride, and it’s not over yet.
If anyone is ashamed of this team, they need to jump off the bangwagon and go have themselves a pity party with the crowds of fairweather Yankees fans.
Contreras and I were just looking at him eating this iguana thing over white rice and he put it away like it was a double cheeseburger, you know?
by LeepinLizardz on Oct 21, 2010 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not calling the team a disgrace or a bunch of chokers, but if they don’t win this series this season was most certainly a choke job. How could it not be? We’re the two time defending NL champs, and had the best record in baseball, and all the experience. The giants are here for the first time. Theyre counting on guys like Cody fuckin Ross, Pat Burrell and kids like Posey. Cut me a fuckin break. If a team of veterans fails to take advantage then this is without a doubt one of the worst chokes in recent Philly sports history. Theres no other way around it.
No, there IS another way around it, and that is that this offense, which has been incredibly streaky all season, has hit a lull. It has nothing to do with choking, and everything to do with running into a hot team that is pitching as well as they can, getting lucky with RISP and catching the ball better than the Phils are.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
This.
One of the things that really annoyed me with the media coverage coming into this series is the fact that they had Philly so heavily favored., On one hand, I can understand that the commentators see what they see and think what they think (and granted, coming in, I had Phillies in 7)… but I also feel that they missed how tight this match-up was. Both teams have great pitching THIS YEAR- I know Lincecum is great, but have not looked too deeply at the careers of Cain/ Sanchez and Baumgarner is a rookie, so it is hard to tell where he will wind up- but that does not take away from the fact that they are pitching by some metrics better than the big three (particularly when you roll Blanton into the equation). The Phillies ran into a very good team that they have a history of playing hard against. This series was in no way a gimme- and losing it, if indeed that happens, while disappointing is in no way a choke job.
I’m almost glad I’ll miss the first 2.5 hours of tonights game in class
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
Starting the Big 3 in order
The big series in Atlanta (that we thought was more important than it turned out) – SWEEP with the Big 3
Series vs. Cincy – SWEEP in 3 games
We’ve had our success against good teams with the 3 in order. Its been done. Its not likely but its a good chance. Doc needs to bring this series home
"A picture may be worth a thousand words, but a word from Harry Kalas painted a thousand pictures."
-Doug Glanville
I suppose it would bear more weight if the ‘big 3’ starting hadn’t led to a 1-2 record most recently
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
And if San Fran had not beaten all three twice this season.
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 1:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The Atlanta series was in Philly
Not that important, but just making the correction.
by PhilsForever on Oct 21, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
TASTE THE RAINBOW
And by Rainbow I mean Zoloft, Paxil, Desipremine, or some St John’s wort or valerian root if you’re one of those god damned hippies
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I plan to have a zanax colada during the game tonight
by Boundforbeach on Oct 21, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Pass some this way… I could use it right about now!
by dannijd on Oct 21, 2010 6:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Xanax is great, I guess, but you’ll still be depressed :)
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel like i'm having deja vu. I was hanging out in the Yankee thread yesterday. Same vibe, same hope.
Hopefully same result. Good luck Phillie fans. My money’s on Doc tonight. Just give him 1 run of support and you’re going back to Philly.
Would CJ Wilson crack the Giants top 5 pitching rotation?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Top 5 probably
Remember Barry Zito isn’t very good. But top 4, not a chance, and given that Zito still has two awful years left on his contract, probably wouldn’t crack the top 5 in a real world scenario.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Oct 21, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously?
CJ Wilson’s ERA is 3.34. FIP 3.88. xFIP is 4.03.
Sanchez’s ERA is 3.07. FIP 4.08. xFIP is 4.23.
Cain’s ERA is 3.14. FIP 3.84. xFIP is 4.43.
Those numbers are awfully similar. It’s not at all obvious to me that C.J. Wilson is not a top 4 on the Giants. You could make that ARGUMENT but I don’t see how you can look at their numbers and pretend it’s at all obvious.
The only thing both pitchers clearly beat Wilson on is ERA and that is .1-.2 runs higher. Except that Wilson pitches in the AL, not the NL….so even that puts Wilson in a tie with Cain/Sanchez if not a slight edge to Wilson.
This. I think it is close, particularly considering that you are talking top four, and Baumgarner, is a rookie— some of his performance may come from the benefit of batters seeing him for the first time. It is completely possible that these two combined get Wilson in the top four in the rotation in San Fran.
Because Cain is an aberration
His FIP and xFIP in relation to his ERA continues to confound and befuddle most advanced metrics folks, but because he’s been able to do it consistently, I don’t think you can call it a fluke anymore. Not to mention that Cain has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three years, but gets so little run support that no one has noticed. You’re just looking at this year.
Sanchez has been at times inconsistent, but his stuff is absolutely electric, which is why he had the lowest BAA of any pitcher in baseball this year. He’s thrown a no-hitter and two one-hitters in the last year and a half, not to mention he’s left handed and is under team control for 3 more years.
This is Wilson’s first year full year as a starter, so it’s a better comparison, IMO, to compare him to Bumgarner, who has had a very rough year personally, but absolutely dominated in the minors, posted an ERA of 3.00 with San Francisco and just turned 21.
So I agree that it may not be obvious to others, but no, there’s no way that Wilson cracks the Giants top 4.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Oct 21, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Sanchez is a very good pitcher but he leads that leads the NL in walks and has a .262 BABIP vs. a league average of .302, with a LOB% of 79.5 vs. a league average 72.2% which is up from his 71.9% LOB% from last year. Certainly the 205 Ks help. It will be interesting to see how he fares next year if the walks remain about the same and if his BABIP normalizes .
Cain
Ok, so even accepting the disparity between Cain’s DIPS and ERA is more than just randomness, isn’t there a more parsimonious explanation than he has a magical ability to avoid home runs that many other very good pitchers don’t seem to have or learn? At home, Cain gives up .77 HR/9 in 590.1 innings. On the road, his numbers higher, but comparable: .85 HR/9 in 505.1 innings. But take away his starts in NL West parks and he gives up .954 HR/9 in 188.2 innings. Doesn’t that disparity suggest he doesn’t have a skill here but just pitches a lot of games in the NL West, home of 3 of the better pitchers parks in baseball?
If you can answer that question you win a prize
Or more likely a job with fangraphs, Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus. Cain claims to pitch to contact to cut down his pitch count, but I’ve heard some suggest the numerous pop-ups he gets has something to do with it.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Oct 21, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
But I don’t think you can draw that conclusion based on less than 15% of his innings. The other thing is that two of other three NL West parks are perhaps the two best hitters parks in baseball, and one of those is Coors Field. I’ve seen Rob Neyer at ESPN, fangraphs and Hardball Times all try to answer this question and all came away saying that they have some ideas, but nothing concrete. Cain is much different from other pitchers because he lives up in the zone and is usually able to elevate his fastball enough to keep it out of the “happy/hit me” zone. I guess we’ll—perhaps—find out Sunday if he’s a product of Telephone Park or a different way of pitching.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Oct 22, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Doc Halladay
Roy needs to come up huge tonight. I’m not talking about keeping them in it with a Game 1-like performance. He needs to single handedly win it. I’m talking about CG and no more than 2 runs. If he wants to keep the title of “best pitcher in baseball” he has to prove it. This is why he was brought here. The regular season doesn’t mean shit. The no hitter and perfect games don’t mean shit. If he takes two L’s in the NLCS his season was a failure. He needs to justify all the moves Amaro made in the offseason to get him tonight
But haven’t you read the news? The BBWAA is actually talking about revoking Halladay’s title as “best pitcher in baseball” — it’s a big scandal!
As I understand it, the only way the phillies can win tonight is if Roy Halladay channels his inner Steve Nebraska
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
This is completely, utterly wrong in every possible way.
Being a great pitcher does not mean a complete-game win for every big game. No pitcher has ever done that. No pitcher will ever do that. Great pitchers lose sometimes, and they lose big games sometimes, even if they’re greater than the ones their playing against.
The idea that losing a big game means “choking” in all cases no matter what, is just lunacy.
“The regular season doesn’t mean shit.”
Also false. Playoff performance doesn’t mean shit either, unless you get there.
“If he takes two L’s in the NLCS his season was a failure. He needs to justify all the moves Amaro made in the offseason to get him tonight”
Much as this may disappoint you, he doesn’t answer to your whims. Again, great pitchers lose sometimes. You don’t get to declare that they suck or had a bad season, just because they lose and you get disappointed about it.
by Rujasu on Oct 21, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
And when great pitchers go against great pitchers – well – you know
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
That is the other thing. Halladay could pitch a great game tonight, and get an L or a no decision. So much of what happens is not in his control- does the liner go straight into a fielder’s glove, or do the fairies send it away? Does this team hit? Fielding luck and scoring runs have an influence on how this ends. Do I want to see him pitch well- that goes without saying. However, whether he pitches well or poorly, will not change the way that I feel about him as a pitcher. There is nothing that he can do tonight (standing on tonight only) that either will or will not justify all that was done to bring him here.
the regular season doesn’t mean shit for this team. That’s why they didn’t go wild and celebrate like they won the WS when they clinched the division. No one was talking about a successful year after they won the division of the NLDS, they were talking about the goal of the WS. To not hold a sports team accountable for what they SHOULD DO is wrong, and if they fail to beat the Giants then yes they did choke.
Step 1: Log off
Step 2: Turn on Radio
Step 3: Tune to WIP
Enjoy
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe you’ll be less pissed off if you hear how ridiculous it sounds coming from someone else. Seriously, try a colonic, or some ludes
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Well it’s either that or you’re just a complete idiot, i went with the nicer option especially after you cursed out someone in the clothing thread like it matters
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
If you think 162 games is less significant than 8 games in determining whether a season was a failure or not, you need to have your head examined.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Isn’t it the other way around? No one entered the season worried if the Phillies were going to make the playoffs. It was whether or not they could win the WS. The season is measured against expectations. The expectation was to AT LEAST get to the WS if not win it. Therefore the playoffs measure the success of the season.
How so? How am I wrong? Is it so bad that I’m going to be disappointed if the Phillies lose tonight? I’ll say that this season is a complete failure if they don’t reach the WS.
a goal is to get to the WS, that cannot be the expectation, the season is too long and grueling and the playoffs too much of a crapshoot…
you wouldn’t be wrong to be disappointed, but you would be silly for seeing the season as a complete failure if they don’t reach the WS
You aren’t a player, you are a fan.
If you can’t enjoy the season that they had, compiling the best record in baseball, a pitcher throwing a perfect game AND a no hitter, then give up watching sports cause you take the way too seriously and have way too high expectations for ‘non failure’ of a season.
You are not a member
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Well no, you’re still failing to comprehend the point and that fact that luck is a huge factor in all playoffs.
In march they will ccrown the ncaa champion – is it the best team in the nation or the team that played the best for 6 games in 3 weeks?
When the giants beat the undefeated patriots in ONE GAME – did that mean the giants were a better team over all – nope – just meant they were better on that day.
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
In most seasons don’t the phillies play the nl west teams six times and the nl central teams six times.
Usually no one believes that those two spaced out series determined which team is better than the other.
This is just a sort of compressed version of that to me
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
where’s the accountability for not being the best team when it matters most? I love Philly sports, but that doesn’t mean I can’t hold my team accountable for losing a series they should win. I’m not counting them out either, I think the still will win this series. H20 can easily sweep a three game set against a team that struggles offensively. We just have different points of view when it comes to expectations I guess. That doesn’t mean I’m rooting against the Phillies just so I can blast them. I won’t do that. They’re a great baseball team; I just want them to play like it when it matters most, and if it doesn’t happen I’ll feel like they failed. They’re not performing up to their abilities, which in my eyes means they are currently failing. I have all the confidence in the world that they’ll win tonight and game 6 with Oswalt on the mound. I think the offense found its grove last night, and that Utley is going to break out and have a big game tonight against Tim.
Maybe you’d agree with common sense if you weren’t over reacting to a game and flipping out on everyone
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, Dodger fan here
Without being facetious at all, how can you talk about getting into the getting into the opponent’s head without mentioning Broxton? We’re feeling a little left out here! (Ok, that last sentence was kind of facetious. :) )
Exceeding / meeting high expectations (or failure therein)
One of my favorite posts came a few weeks back “When the Washington Generals Start Winning (or, How the Phillies’ Current Run Is Ruining My Identity)” — it really summed up my own long & tortured history of following the Phils (fan since 7 years old). These past couple games have gotten me back in touch with that ol’ accidental Buddhist who believes in low expectations being the key to happiness! (Got me through the ’84 – ’06 seasons.)
This is the first time I can remember a Phillies team ever being favored to win anything! I almost started to believe the hype machine. Unfortunately, even the Phils themselves seem uncomfortable with the mantle of great expectations right now.
They were pretty favored just last year
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
They were favored to come out of the national league this year and last
Going into the playoffs most folks seemed to think the AL would take the world series though this year as well
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Thing is, to make the playoffs they played pretty much outta their behind(I’d use the ‘A’ word but I wonder if it’s okay in this context?) Perhaps these guys are exhausted because they used all their juice to get to where they are.
And I don’t care what anybody says, we lost game 4 on the Chad Durbin debacle. Everyone and his mama takes him out-except Charlie Manuel.
And I don’t care what anybody says, we lost game 4 on the Chad Durbin debacle.
No one has said otherwise and as for your first point, you’re wrong
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, what’s your theory for why they’re struggling?
by LeQuan Glover on Oct 21, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
You’ve already ignored all the logical supportable theories stated by others, why give you another one to ignore so you can give us your theory.
I personally think they lack pride
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
They lost because they've forgotten how to win.
We’re relying on the 2007 edition of Rowand’s Guide to Winning, while the giants have the 2010 edition.
Not having one of jenkins, bruntlett or stairs – that’s the real problem
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 21, 2010 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
One big problem with the 2007 Red Sox comparison
When CC Sabathia lost Game 5, he had been pitching on 3 days rest for several consecutive starts.
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