A Few Final Phillies Links For You, October 25, 2010: Wrapping It Up Edition
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2010 7:53 AM EDT
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PrintSo we'll be winding down the daily links post, but might go back to them during the Winter Meetings if things look particularly interesting, or if another Roy Halladay type situation arises. Other than that, enjoy and try not to rage this morning...
Salisbury: A Look at the Phillies' Offseason
Keep an eye on [Aaron] Rowand. Also keep an eye on Texas’ Jeff Francoeur and Atlanta’s Matt Diaz, both of whom could become free agents if they are not tendered contracts.
Oh God I just bazooka barfed.
Championship series baseball players swear by $30 titanium necklaces: Should you?
Um, yeah, probably not.
The Heron's Nest: Welcome to Dread October
OH NO HOWARD HAD NO RBIZZ!!!
Toohey: Too many Phillies’ Ks prove not OK
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO.
1. Strikeouts DON'T MATTER; 2. The Phillies had the THIRD FEWEST strikeouts in the National League in 2010, and ranked 9th in 2009, the middle of the pack. They ran into a great, strikeout-oriented pitching staff in San Francisco. It happens. Good God.
McCaffery: Phils’ championship grace period over
Well I guess so then.
Phils just didn’t have any fight left in them
That's it, they just didn't "want it" enough.
Big bats of Utley and Howard disappoint Phillies this time
Let's keep blaming the team's best hitter in the series.
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Strikeouts
The Phillies were actually 6th toughest to K in 2009, in terms of PAs per K. How do these people get gigs writing about baseball?
and while they had 3rd fewest Ks this year, they were actually the 2nd TOUGHEST to K (in PAs per K), since they score more and therefore get more opportunities.
Frankly, I miss the big fat Ryan Howard who played shitty defense, struck out an ungodly amount, and hit tons of homers. (2006-2008 RyHo).
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand the reasons for wanting Ryan to lose weight (long term health, being able to move better, etc), but is their any relationship between player weight and home runs? Or is this a mis-perception?
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 1:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Bat speed, bat speed, bat speed
If anything, being fat can hurt you in this area, as you can have a harder time getting around on fastballs.
Ok… I was thinking in terms of mass being able to generate force (it made sense for why a heavier hitter would be able to launch things more easily than a lighter one).
Pitch speed, and batter strength are factors, but bat speed is far and away the most important component. And being big is a detriment, it’s one of the reasons guys like Cecil Fielder seem to fall off a cliff late in their careers (I’m choosing to overlook the juicing rumors, for the sake of this argument. Fielder’s rumors, that is).
Then how is Prince Fielder so good?
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2010 6:26 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Is he really THAT good?
He’ll be a DH soon
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 26, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I miss Dave Kingman, too.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Kong!
In college, Kingman played for the Alaska Goldpanners, a semi-pro team in Fairbanks, AK. While here, he hit a titanic homerun, the longest ever in Alaska, by far.
It sailed over the left-center wall of Growden Park (marked 398’), across a two-lane road, a parking lot, and landed on a roof; probably 550’ in total.
Salisbury
When will people realize that at some point there is such a thing as too much pitching? I like Cliff Lee as much as anyone in this city, and would love to have him back, but bringing him back at the cost of further depleting outfield bats (I know Ibañez is streaky, but it is better than consistently bad) sounds like a recipe for this team to get worse- pitching may win championships, but you still need to hit.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 9:20 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ibanez is consistently bad next year. since he doesn’t really have any defensive or baserunning value, the only thing keeping him just above replacement level is his bat. yes, he has periodic hot streaks (when his BABIP spikes), but so does virtually everyone.
don’t get me wrong, I like Ibanez. he really seems like a good guy who tries hard, plays the game the right way, etc. but I think the odds are really against him being productive in 2011.
by perfectdepth on Oct 25, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
The Sokoloski byline
is just brutal:
Antagonized by the opposing pitcher to engage in a battle, Chase Utley turned down the challenge.
So Chase should have charged the mound and taken the ejection along with a pitcher that was going to get pulled anyway?
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
eone lost their directions to the high road
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 9:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Could this have been what Sanchez wanted?
Sanchez was having a bad night- his command was awful, and he was about to be pulled without making it three innings. While I doubt that he intentionally hit Utley (the stakes are two high to give the Phillies extra base runners in a tie), Utley has taken steps toward him on the mound after Sanchez threw over his head in another game, and maybe he wanted to see if he could get Chase (or another Phillie to do something that would lead to their ejection- kind of an if “I’m going down, you’re going with me” thing. At any rate, it is good that Chase did not go up there. Punching Sanchez, while passionate, would be stupid- letting temper get in the way of doing what is best for the team. I would have lost a lot of respect for Chase if he had thrown a punch and been ejected for it- Sanchez is a jerk, and getting hit by a pitch sucks, but throwing a punch would have been stupid.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 9:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
At least the dreadful quality of the writing in today’s links is more productive to rage against than the Phillies themselves. I feel switching targets makes sense.
No guarantee the next guy would be better- how many outs did the Phillies get at the plate this year? Sometimes he was too aggressive (sending Ruiz in game 4, and Jayson Werth against the Pirates stand out in my memory). But I am also sure that there are worse than him.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 9:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
While it is easy to be angry at Perlozzo (particularly since sending Carlos Ruiz was a big mistake that in some ways led to the game four loss (the sac fly would have tied it had Ruiz stayed and everything stayed the same), I am ok with him coming back- his one mistake is no less than others have made- should he have held Ruiz, yes- but Dubee and Manuel also should have pulled Durbin when it was clear he had nothing that night. He made a bad call, but his was not the only one, and if the others get to keep their jobs, so I guess should he.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 9:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
should’ve sent Rollins… I seem to recall him being very conservative during the depths of slumpmas; no one seemed able to score from 2nd on a single to anywhere… not that he’s the main villain there, of course.
Thanks for reminding me of the Rollins call (although the radio made it sound like running there would have been at Rollins’s peril- like the throw would have probably beat him).
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 10:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe that is why he didn’t try it there- he got bit once and was trying to make smarter decisions.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 1:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Agreed...
I don’t really expect him back- I think that position is likely to go to the loser of the 5th starter competition.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 1:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think Worley with an outside chance of Moyer being involved.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 1:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Interesting, much less concerned about the rotation than I am right handed bats and finding someone better than exxon to back up aging jimmy
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
As am I.
The top 3 in the rotation are among the best in baseball (both Hamels and Oswalt would be number one starters in a lot of other places). Blanton, while not nearly on the level of the Big 3 is serviceable, and comparable with other middle of the rotation starters. And it is doubtful that Kendrick or Worley would be worse than most of the fifth starters out there.
I am not as concerned with finding someone better than Valdez to serve as an infield backup. He plays defense well, which is the most important thing from a back up in the middle infield, and his hitting improved as he got more at bats over the course of the season (the lion’s share of his GiDPs were pre-All Star break, and while I have not checked whether a reduction in opportunities caused this, I am comfortable with him there.
I think the team’s biggest needs are bullpen (Re-sign Contreras, what to do with Baez and Romero) and finding a right handed outfield bat (maybe not someone we would think of right away- it may be time to dig around on the Rule 5 rockpile and the non-tendered scrapheap to find the next Jayson Werth.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 1:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I expect jimmy rolllins to miss more games next season than this one, that’s my concern
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
why would you expect him to miss more games?
I would think Rollins would a) work his ass off to improve his health (as in being in better shape) and b) feel like he has a lot to prove to himself.
Plus, unless the Phillies extend him, 2011 is a contract year for Rollins, giving him every motivation to strive to be as healthy and productive as possible.
That being said, I bet Rollins gets an extension- considering his back to back down years, they may be able to get a more favorable agreement, the organization lacks depth at the position, and good shortstops are tough to find on the free agent market.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 3:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nobody tries to get injured. In the grand scheme of things, the older you get, the more injuries you tend to suffer and the longer it takes to heal. I’m not sure Rollins will suffer more, but it’s not an unreasonable assumption.
I more meant by doing the things he maybe needs to do in the offseason to insure that he is in the right physical condition to play the game. I understand that nobody tries to get injured, but (and I draw this from experience) there are times when you don’t necessarily do everything you can do (in terms of stretching and flexibility training) to prevent it.
Rollins has talked about taking up yoga- can you imagine?
I expect he will play more than this year, but less than in ‘09- the leg injuries seemed to feed off each other, and the layoff should allow his leg to finally get fully recovered. While I am concerned with Rollins’s ability to stay healthy, anything that is an upgrade over Valdez is likely going to want to play in a place that gives an opportunity to start.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 2:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Exxon put up a WAR of 2.7 this year in 363 PA.
Rollins was: 2.4 in 352 PA.
Rollins’ 2009 WAR: 0.9
Going back in time to his 25 – 29 y/o age, he was good for about 4.0 WAR a year.
Valdez is a pretty good backup for Rollins, perhaps better than Rollins. To be fair, it would be unwise to expect Valdez to do that again.
Maybe the Phillies should just sign Juan Uribe, who had 24 25 home runs this past year and a WAR exceeding Rollins over the last 2 years. He is a free agent, I think, and I bet he’d cost half as much as Rollins after Rollins’ contract ends after 2011. Jimmy’s not getting any younger, and giving him much more than 7/8 a year for more than a couple of years is scary.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe the accepted common wisdom is that Rollins will be getting (and deserves) a contract extension this off season? I’m not so sure. His injury issues this year just concern me
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I have enjoyed watching Rollins play, but I am less sure with each passing day that I want to see him play for the Phillies beyond 2011, at least not at anything more than 2-3 years for similar money, but maybe a bit of a raise. 2 WAR at 4M a year justifies $8,000,000. On that basis, he was overpaid for the last two years. It’s possible he rallies for a bit more WAR over the next couple of years, but I’m not optimistic.
By way of comparison, Jeter (eligible for FA, by the way) just earned in excess of $20M this year for a WAR of about 2. He’s a huge defensive liability.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m predicting that the Jeter contract will be the most laughable of the off season
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a bet I’ll take.
If Jeter truly were ‘mr yankee’ and mr team player he’d take a rather big pay cut and accept his diminishing skills and that he’s kind of like kobe bryant in fantasy basketball drafts going top 5 – but he won’t
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Nor should he
If your organization loves you, wants you back, and has a printing press in the basement, why should you not get as rich as you can off of them?
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 3:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Because they don’t have a printing press, they do have a budget, and ‘mr yankee’ should do it for the good of the team.
:)
I"m just saying :)
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the question is not so much what the player should do (get as much money as possible for doing his job) but rather what the Yankees should do.
Jeter can hit and he’s reasonably athletic. He’s just not good at fielding the shortstop position. They can move him to 3rd (ha!) or put him in the OF or DH him.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
And if they convince him to move to third (remember that Jeter still sees himself as a shortstop— he is not flexible like some people we know), where are they going to put A-Rod?
Also considering his hitting, does he produce enough to be a DH? (I remember hearing that he had one of his worst seasons ever at the dish, and I know he hits a lot of groundball outs— kind of not what aI would expect from a DH).
Common wisdom seems to be that A-Rod can’t play short any more either
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
A-Rod is better than Jeter – and pretty much always has been
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions
If Jeter goes to 3B, A-Rod can go to LF or DH or 1B. Or, hell, even to SS.
Fix’d
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 25, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A-Rod: had a WAR of 3.9 this year for $33,000,000. $33M! Or, if you prefer, a WAR of 1.3.
The best part? The contract runs (albeit at declining pay rates) for 7 more years through 2017.
That’s just awesome.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He was injuired this year. Hip issue, torn labrum like Utley. I think he ’s got a few more monster years left in him. but perhaps not enough to justify the contract.
Considering his contract, I don’t know that he ever could have done enough to justify it.
Plus, the hip injury was corrected by surgery at the beginning of the 2009 season. While they had left open his needing another surgery in the off season he did not need it. He suffered from a variety of minor injures during this season.
Is arbitration eligible- he will get a deal in San Fran, and may get overpaid by a touch, but is not going to get a gizillion dollars over what he is worth.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 2:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It does seem like a forgone conclusion that J-Roll get’s an extension. I think a lot of that has to do with a lack of viable minor league options to replace him now, or in the near future.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Don’t get me started on that, I was told it’s not a big deal
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Not per RAJ
In his press conference, RAJ said that he had no plans of trying to work a contract with Rollins in the offseason. He also made several comments about the importance of players paying attention to their offseason conditioning programs in order to allay some of the injuries, comments that seemed to be directed at Rollins.
While it is never possible to determine whether RAJ is being honest when he is talking, I think that Rollins is being baited, and that the Phillies will work a deal with him either during or after next season if he comes to camp in good condition and able to stay healthy and productive. With his recent history, I don’t blame him.
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2010 6:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Jimmy may not be Mickey Mantle, but he’s hardly Mario Mendoza. Plus, he can field his position stupendously well. And it wouldn’t be unheard of for him to improve his offense somewhat (not to 2006 levels, but greater than 2009, certainly).
I’d be in favor of re-signing him, for defense alone, if nothing else.
Per BR:
Defensive WAR 2010:
Rollins: 0.6
Valdez: 1.2
Fangraphs SS UZR/150:
Rollins: 12.3 (way above career numbers, btw)
Valdez: 4.6
But career:
Rollins: 5.3
Valdez: 8.9
They are pretty similar, defensively. Both plus defenders. The defensive stat game is in its infancy, even now, but I think between BR and fangraphs, we’re seeing that neither is lightyears ahead of the other defensively. Jimmy clearly has more power and is a bigger offensive threat historically, but how realistic is that going forward?
We have another year to observe. No need to go extending too soon. It’s not like the Phillies would do something that dumb…
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW, Rollins is the better player. If his BABIP can return to .280 or so and if he can maintain his career-best walk rate, he’s going to be worth more than 2 WAR a year (8.0). The thing is, he’s showing his age, and 2.0 to 3.5 is probably the best the Phillies can hope for from him. That’s still pretty darn good at a position that is a black hole for many lineups.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but defensive WAR and UZR and such ranks Utley up there with Dr. Strangeglove. The metrics are pretty faulty, and it doesn’t take much of an “I watch the games, damnit” attitude to see that Rollins is superior to Valdez.
They’re defensively similar, though, I’ll grant. Rollins is a much better hitter as well.
Huh? Utley is the best defensive 2B for years running, according to UZR. Dr. Strangeglove was one of the all-time worst defenders.
I advocated for signing Juan Uribe last winter if the Giants didn’t re-up with him. He offers similar positional flexibility to Peanut and is good enough offensively to not be a black hole. You could use him similar to the way Tampa uses the awesome Ben Zobrist to give rotating days off to older regulars.
I love Zob’s, but there is a reason he isn’t a starter. Still, I don’t think there’s a better utility player in baseball today.
Definitely. I’m just miffed that all my slick ass saber picks didn’t live up to their predicted production. Phillies could so use a guy like that….he’d just never get to play. I have a feeling that Manuel will still trott the aging core out there everyday next season. He didn’t after all have any reservations about doing it with a 39 year old player this year.
Odd Cholly defense
The 39 year old was the only guy healthy enough to send out there everyday this year.
I’m sure there is but the issue is when your a bench player on the Phillies, your not going to see alot of playing time unless someone gets hurt. The better bench players are prolly used to playing more than they would on the Phillies .
Rowand, Francoeur, Diaz
I was trying to figure out which would be the least of those three evils when my head exploded.
thanks a lot, Salisbury.
Rowand = BBQ….. He is clearly the choice to replace Bull when he’s ready to retire.
Francoeur = We could use a little more “Yay” around here he’d provide.
Diaz = He’s wikipedia quote says all about his winning ways we need to know… “On not being an everyday player: ‘[A] lot of people would think about the money they’re not making if they don’t play every day, but we all make enough money.’” Since joining the Braves he’s averaged 1.6 WAR per season (fangraphs WAR). In every year he’s gotten at least 300 plate appearances he’s gotten at least 2.0 WAR. For comparison, Raul had 1.8 WAR this year in more than double the number of plate appearances. So if we could get over his lack of yay, lack of winning, and lack of BBQ, if he was signed very cheaply, I could tolerate this move.
Just curious...
Is the fact that he doesn’t consider money the most important thing in life mean he’s not a “winner” or that he lacks “yay”?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
As a Braves regular, you misread that.
- Aaron Rowand allegedly “taught the Phillies how to win” whatever that means. Also, the BBQ thing.
- Frenchy is the victim of a “Yay!” photo meme around here.
Diaz is actually the better player of all three, and the preference, stated above in a left-handed way, is to sign Diaz as OF help in what is likely to be a multiple player platoon/shuffle in the OF next year for the Phillies as fans wait for Ibanez’ contract to be euthanized at the end of 2011.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Sticking with the "old guy" approach:
What about Vlad Guerrero?
Kidding. Hopefully by ’12, some of our mid-level prospects will be ready. Gillies, Mayberry, Santana… Singleton is more a 1B prospect, right?
Singleton is starting next year in Clearwater, and in left field. In any event, I’d be shocked if he’s ready before 2013, and that might be pushing it.
Mayberry is what he is at this point.
Gillies had a lost season but I’m still holding out hope.
Domingo Santana is pretty far away, too.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Okay...
that’s a little clearer to me now.
I hope Diaz isn’t available. He’s one of my favorites — just an all around hard working, pretty good hitting, nice guy. Plus I think he’s really cute.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
Frenchie
This is borderline heresy, but Frenchie wouldn’t be the worst option for a 4th/5th outfielder type. He hits lefties well, actually, plays good defense and has a cannon for an arm.
As long as he rarely/never gets ABs against right-handers, he could be sorta useful. ONLY IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT!!!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
talk about your market inefficiencies
where teams have interest in Francoeur and wouldn’t touch Ibanez with a 12-foot pole.
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 25, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
At 38 and with an $11.5 million contract, Ibanez is more untradeable than a 1979 AMC Pacer.
/Bob Brookover’ed yo
by Boundforbeach on Oct 25, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Fangraphs has him at a WAr of 1.8 this past year. That’s about $7M of production. He’s not a $12M player, but he’s not worthless, either. Last year he coughed up 3.9 WAR, so the Phillies made out. They’re about even on him so far.
If they pull 1 – 2 WAR out of him next year, it won’t be the end of the world. He’s not an Adam Eaton, or anything, and he was a huge part of getting to the 2009 WS.
I am not a witch.
by RememberthePhitans on Oct 25, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He was also a huge part of our August/September tear. Shame he’s so damn streaky
by Boundforbeach on Oct 25, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
it’s really not impossible for Ibanez to be an Eatonian drag on the team. you have to remember that he’s going to be 39! it’s very possible that he could be injured and/or totally ineffective in 2011.
(and while Fangraphs has him at 1.8 WAR, B-R has him at zero WAR. that’s…not good.)
by perfectdepth on Oct 25, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
upon further review, there’s something wrong with B-R’s WAR today, so that zero is not right. IIRC B-R had him at just above 1 WAR this year (1.3 maybe?) before whatever glitch this is happened.
I really can’t see him as a 2 WAR player next year. and 1 WAR only if he doesn’t get injured.
by perfectdepth on Oct 25, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
But would you pay either of them the amount of money left on Ibañez’s contract? I wouldn’t, so you can’t blame them for being more interested in the one that would come cheaper.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 2:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
this is true
and oh so painful to admit.
plus you get the benefit of Frenchy’s patented new-team hot streak for 50 or 60 at-bats.
by perfectdepth on Oct 25, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Francoeur has a strong arm and that’s it. He’s useless, in fact he’s worse than useless because the Phillies will look at his counting stats and see that he’s a Regular MLB Player. Being a natural RF (never mind that his defense is actually terrible), he’d immediately platoon with Brown and threaten to take the starting job if Brown struggles even slightly.
Ben Francisco isn’t good defensively either, but he hits well enough to outproduce Francouer, and better yet, the team actually views him as a bench player. Francouer would be seen as a “middle-of-the-order guy” the way Jimmy is seen as a “leadoff guy” and Kyle Kendrick is seen as a “pitcher.” Be very, very afraid.
These articles are precise demostrations of how people just blindless hate Philadelphia and their sports and come op with all kinds of tabloid type garbage to try and bash them. When the Phillies come out the gate on fire next year and the Giants and Rangers don’t what will they say??
I wasn't even a year old but I stayed up to be outside the Vet with my Dad and Mom when the Phillies won the World Series 1980.
According to a text alert I just received, Amaro is having a PC this morning (at this moment) summarization would be appreciationed
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 25, 2010 11:07 AM EDT reply actions
How do strikeouts not matter at all? Did you see how many times bloopers fell for the Giants in this series? How can miss BABIP help you if you don’t put the ball in play? Strikeouts do matter. What about Ben Francisco’s strikeout with a runner on third and one out (looking at that)? He HAS to put the ball in play there, or at least attempt to. Striking out in that situation looking is unacceptable.
The Jruth shall be told.
Strikeouts can matter in particular instances but this guy’s assertion that the team “strikes out too much” presupposes that aggregate strikeout totals have a negative effect on team scoring. They don’t, and they never did. All things being equal, a team that strikes out a lot scores neither more nor less than a team that keeps strikeout totals low. The reason is that what’s lost when you strike out (ability to move runners, BABIP luck, benefit of errors) is gained in other areas (no double plays, correlation with power and walks, elevation of pitch counts).
It’s a moot point anyway, because the Phillies just don’t strike out a lot anymore.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 25, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
You talk about bloopers, but whether a guy is getting bloopers or line drives, a .290 hitter who strikes out a lot is just about as good of a hitter as a .290 hitter who rarely strikes out. Bloopers are already counted in batting average/OBP/SLG — they’re still hits! As for the runner on third and one out, sure, you don’t want a K in that situation. However, no batter is going to make contact every time in that situation. Are all ballplayers unacceptable then?
It is not necessarilly an at-bat by at-bat thing
Players who strike out at rates much higher than the mean are going to have trouble having good batting averages and slugging percentages (although with walks they may NE able to achieve a reasonable on-base percentage). They either have to have huge home run power or really good luck with balls in play because of the number of times they don’t put a ball in play.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 1:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Right, so if a guy is hitting .290 with a lot of K’s, he has a high BABIP. Whereas BABIP is mostly based on dumb luck for pitchers, not so with hitters. Speedsters like Ichiro have consistently high BABIP’s, for example, since he beats out a lot of ground balls. Hitting line drives consistently helps. Being a power hitter can also be helpful, as all hitters have a 1.000 batting average on balls hit into the outfield bleachers. There’s still a significant luck factor, but it has much more to do with the hitter’s skill than the pitcher’s.
Yup… Bloopers are really more luck than anything… Line drives are usually good luck (but not necessarily- line drive double plays killed us in the San Fran series).
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 3:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
it is an AB by AB thing. You can’t apply the same arguments the require huge sample sizes to yield anything that’s statistically significant to a handful of games. While the Phillies on the whole don’t strike out alot anymore, it’s irrrelevant in the context of the series. Likewise you can’t assert that their K’s in the post season is indicative of how the team performs over a season.
So your left with evaluating performance on an AB-by-AB basis. Some of these K’s are attributable to the Giants better pitching, some to bad luck and some to just flat out poor stituational AB’s.
whoops that last sentence should read
Some of these K’s are attributable to the Giants better pitching, and some to just flat out poor stituational ABs.
Halladay Presser
http://www.csnphilly.com/pages/video?PID=QV1mBi8fm_jAOFztqQRoYQ2pVHEfZ60M
My stupid computer isn’t letting me select text to link, so sorry for the rudimentary link post. HP laptops have really gone downhill.
I liked his response to his favorite moment as a Phillie: the division clinching win and subsequent celebration. Says he has more respect for NL lineups/players than he did previously but loves playing in it because it’s a more pure form of the sport (says he needs to work on his bunting). Was impressed by fan support and turnout throughout the entire season. Worth a listen.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Question for someone who understands baseball contract jargon
What is exactly pre-arbitration eligible? I ask because that is Valdez’s status and I do not understand it.
by dannijd on Oct 25, 2010 6:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Players are eligible for free agency after ~6 years of major league service. For the last three of those seasons they are eligible for salary arbitration, which at that point works essentially the same as arb for free agents. So a player in his first three seasons in the majors is generally called pre-arb eligible.
phatj is right. In the pre-arb years, players make very close to major league minimum. As a player you have very little choice in the matter.
by Vaughn Haze on Oct 26, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
So keeping Valdez will be cheap AND easy? Works for me!
by dannijd on Oct 26, 2010 9:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Cheap & Easy – Where’s Pat Burrel
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 26, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
SF’s equivalent of Delilah’s VIP area?
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Oct 26, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
A new hair product promoted by the ‘sex for tickets’ woman
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 26, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm
Seeing a lot of these Yankees fans behaving badly articles lately:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Will-spitting-Yankee-fans-play-a-role-in-Cliff-L?urn=mlb-279919
Of course, don’t read the comments—someone blames northern aggression and liberal politics for ignorant fan behaviour. Ay yi yi.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
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