Phillies 2010 Regular Season By The Numbers
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 12:53 PM EDT
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PrintHere are some fun numbers from the 2010 regular season for you to chew on while we await playoff baseball:
0 - MLB teams with the same or better record than the Phillies, the first time the Phillies have ever accomplished this.
.400 - Carols Ruiz's on-base percentage, the best on the team and .068 better than the team's overall .332 on-base percentage out of the lead-off spot.
.505 - Ryan Howard's slugging percentage, the lowest in his career (previous low was .543 in 2008).
.599 - team winning percentage, the 6th highest in its history.
.921 - Jayson Werth OPS, the highest on the team and the highest in Werth's career.
1.00 - Cole Hamels' second-half WHIP.
1.74 - Roy Oswalt's ERA as a Phillie.
2.93 - Roy Halladay's SIERA, which was the lowest in baseball for a pitcher with 100+ innings (second was Jered Weaver at 2.97).
2.96 - Brad Lidge's ERA, which was 4.25 lower than his 2009 ERA of 7.21.
4 - successive NL East championships.
5 - games separating the Phillies and the closet NL team (the Giants) in the end of the season standings.
11 - shutouts against the Phillies this year, the most since 1998 (also 11).
13 - games made up against the Braves in the standings since July 22 (when the Phillies were 7 games out of first).
14 - complete games by Phillies' starting pitchers.
20 - number of times Wilson Valdez grounded into a double play (in 189 plate appearances with men on).
21 - shutouts by the Phillies pitching staff (most in the majorsand the most in baseball since 1998 when the Braves had 23).
21 - wins credited to Roy Halladay (the most by a Phillie since Steve Carlton was credited with 23 in 1982).
23 - games in which either the Phillies or their opponent scored 10 or more runs (18 times by the Phillies, 7 by their opponents (there were 2 overlaps)).
28 - plate appearances by Domonic Brown after August 11.
32 - Phillies games in which one team was shutout, meaning that 20% of Phillies games this year involved a shutout.
53.2 - Jayson Werth's team-leading batting VORP (Albert Pujols lead baseball at 81.8).
76.8 - Roy Halladay's MLB-best pitching VORP (Felix Hernandez was second at 68.8).
97 - wins, which was the most by the team since 1993 (also 97). The only higher win total in Phillies history was 101, which the team reached in both 1976 and 1977.
166 - team home runs, which was down 58 from 2009 (and the team's lowest since they also had 166 in 2003).
168 - games started by Ross Gload, Greg Dobbs, Wilson Valdez, and Juan Castro.
250.7 - innings pitched by Roy Halladay, the most by a Phillie since 1998 when Curt Schilling pitched 268.7.
416 - batters walked by Phillies pitchers, which was the least in the NL (Cardinals were second at 477).
544 - Phillies wins since Charlie Manuel became manager in 2005, which is the most in the NL in that time period (Cardinals are second with 524) and fourth in the majors (Yankees 573, Red Sox 556, Angels 555).
640 - runs against the Phillies, which is the team's lowest full-year total since 1983 when they allowed only 635.
772 - runs scored by the Phillies, which was 120 lower than the team's modern peak of 892 in 2007 (the team record is 1179 in 1894).
1064 - number of times Phillies batters struck out, which is the lowest total since 1997, when the team struck out only 1032 times.
6255 - team plate appearances, 282 off the team's record 6537 in 2007.
3,777,322 - home attendance (including the three Blue Jays "away" games).
And, probably the most important number right now:
11 - wins needed for a third Phillies World Fucking Championship.
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The snarky part of me wants to respond with “really, that’s your quibble with this post chock full of goodies?” or “I don’t know, but if you want to do a survey of all sabermetric publications in the past year, go ahead.”
The non-snarky part of me, though, says “don’t know the prevalence, but they both convey different information and I chose to go with this one here.”
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It was something I was thinking about earlier today because Gregg Doyel mentioned VORP in a sabermetric article and I really did not think it was used. I saw it again here and just wanted to see what some of the stat folks thought on the matter, that was all.
Great post, but I just wanted my question answered by someone who uses advanced stats more than I do.
Good question then (as opposed to the assumption behind my snarky response – sorry). Like I said, I don’t know the answer beyond my own thinking, which is that it’s still a useful way to compare players.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I can see how I came off poorly in my inital response. It was not a dig on you usng VORP, it was me wondering if it was still widely used in the stat community or if WAR had taken its place or if it was a prefence thing (FIP vs SIERA).
Now you see, this could have seriously gone off the rails and engendered some anger, but two guys wanting to find common ground came together to a nice resolution and understanding. Sweeney Hugs for bot’ o’ youse.
by essman on Oct 4, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
YEAH AND THE GUTLESS TURD NEARLY GAVE THE STORE AWAY TO THE RUSKIES AT REJKJAVIK TOO!!!
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Is that photoshopped or is Reagan (a pretty big guy) throwing a really large football?
by phillyinportland on Oct 4, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
one random Jayson Stark–esque fact I found interesting about the 2010 Phillies was that three players walked as much as more than they struck out.
one was Ruiz (55 BB, 54 SO), but he did so in 2008 and 2009 also, so that’s no big shock.
you would probably think that Polanco would be one of the other two, since he has by far the lowest strikeout rate among the Phillies, but since he walks so seldom, he struck out 15 times more than he walked.
instead, you have Jimmy Rollins drawing 40 walks and striking out 32 times and Chase Utley walking and striking out 63 times each. Rollins’ BB% and SO% have been trending closer since about 2007 (10.2% and 8.1% in 2010), but for Utley that was a pretty dramatic drop in SO%.
Don't cry for Team Wet Luzinski
The truth is, they sucked a whole lot.
But I’m still left wondering: If Werth had hit near his career average with RISP, his stats would be jaw-droppingly ginormous.
Maybe our resident statistician, schmenkman, can give us a sense of what Werth’s overall numbers would have been like?
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
ok, here’s what I come up with…
In his 190 PAs with RISP, if he had repeated what he had done with RISP through 2009 (.279/.394/.462), instead of what he actually did (.186/.353/.314), it would have made this difference:
actual 2010 totals: .921 OPS (.296/.388/.532) with 27 HRs, 85 RBIs
with typical RISP stats: .977 OPS (.319/.409/.567) with 30 HRs, 99 RBIs
He had a 20% walk rate with RISP, so he may have been pitched around (even if it didn’t result in a walk) during the times that Ibanez was in the middle of one of his hot streaks.
In Werth’s 190 RISP PAs, he only had 26 hits, but an amazing 51 RBIs (~2 per hit!). In my extrapolation above I assumed that he got 43 hits with RISP, but that he was at his previous career average of 1.5 RBI per hit with RISP.
- If you assume he only reverts to1.5 per hit for the additional 17 hits, that would add 25 RBIs and get him to 110.
- If you assume that the 2 RBIs per hit continued for the additional hits, it would have added 33 RBIs (118 total).
This is all a big what if, but in any case, the 110 is probably the most likely scenario, given what he did with the 26 hits he actually had.
To provide my own commentary
The numbers here that shocked me the most were:
.400 – I’m still convinced that that high of an OBP for Ruiz should not be buried at the bottom of the lineup.
28 – shameful that the organization gave Brown only 28 plate appearances from mid-August forward. I hope that doesn’t come back to bite them in the ass.
32 – I didn’t have time to calculate league averages or look back at how the Phillies have done in the past on this measure, but having 20% of Phillies game involve one team scoring 0 runs is pretty shocking.
544 – Charlie Manuel is the best manager the Phillies have ever had.
The Phils got caught in a trap with Brown when Vicrtorino came back earlier than anticipated. Clearly he was supposed to get more ABs than he did, but then the calendar intervened, the team got hot, and there was no need to tinker. With hindsight, he should have had another 50-100 ABs at LHV in the end of August (most of them on the road) and then gotten the Sept 1 callup.
I’m more surprised he didn’t see more time in Atlanta, and even more aggravated that the Phils seemed to pay a lot of attention to his R/L splits in his 100 AAA PAs rather than his minor-league career, in which they aren’t as pronounced.
Yeah. They should have handled the whole situation much better. I think he’ll be alright though. The full winter in the Dominican League should help.
Winter baseball….that’s too bad. Kinda rains on the parade a bit for me. It’s one thing to train all year using the princple of periodization but another thing to essentially play a sport just about everday all year – this is overtraining (which periodization seeks to avoid). With overtraining the chances for acute injury dramatically increase as well as plateauing or in the worst case a loss of skills.
If the stimulus is continuous then accommodation or monotony occurs. Accommodation is a biological law which states that the responseof a biological object to a given constant stimulus decreases over time. This means that when an athlete trains the same way for extended periods of time, they either plateau or experience maladaptation(This is why I believe there may be more going on in a slump than just variance and also helps explain why it takes such a ridiculous amount of time to develop players). Also overtraining causes chronic overuse conditions like ligament laxity and tendonitis which in turn can promote greater maladaptation. So I hope if any gains are to be made, they are enough to justify the risks. Baseball would do well to look at tennis (non contact, ball and “stick” speed sport) to understand the problems assosiated with year round play. However, tennis, a sport I hold in high regard for producing world class athletes, has by adopting the practices I’ve mentioned – proper preparatory condtiioning and properly sequenced training/rest cycles – not only seen increased quality of play but declining injury rates.
derp
Avg Phillies Fan’s IQ=87
What’s Yours? Can you beat it? Take the 3-minute Quiz Now!
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Now, on the other hand, Talking Chop bloggers/readers . . . .
I kid!
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Great Summary
One question: do we want the Braves to let the Giants out of the closet or not? :)
One number that I checked was how the team did the final third of the season compared to the first two-thirds, when they were on pace to finish at 90-72, the same record the Padres finished with. By going 37-17 over the final 54 games (.685) they finished 7 games over their pace prediction, continuing the trend of the last four years of always playing better the final third of the season.
by phillyinportland on Oct 4, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions
Wow
This really summarizes how the Phillies have gone from a hitting-heavy team with just enough pitching to keep them in the games
…to a great pitching team in just one year.
…congrats to the management and players who made it happen, despite all the injuries and revolving door of substitute players
first post
The good thing is we all know that this lineup can go off at anytime,and hang with anyone!!
Theeee jay Resh
by PHILLYBOY1978 on Oct 4, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, they had a down year offensively, Ryan Howard was a big part of that. But playing Wilson “MVP” Valdez regularly was also, shockingly, a detriment to the team’s run-scoring proficiency. It didn’t help that Greg Dobbs was a human vacuum this year when he played, and I don’t mean that in the sense that he fielded a lot of balls on defense.
They were still pretty good even in this “down year”. You have to remember that offense was down all around baseball, and the right way to evaluate any team’s offense is relative to the state of MLB as a whole. The Phils’ park-adjusted OPS was 5th in the league, and they scored the 2nd-most runs, even with all the injuries.
The rank that will be published or quoted most often in the media will be “5th”, because that’s where they finished in batting average. When their 2nd place finish in runs is mentioned, it will be in an effort to be more thorough in describing their offense, and the two numbers will be treated as being of equal importance — “they finished 5th in batting and second in runs” (they may throw in HRs as well).
I long for the day when someone in the mainstream media treats runs as the primary offensive stat, and treats BA as one of the factors that help describe how they scored those runs. (gets off soapbox)
however
Phils did finish tied for 5th in OBP, which is much more closely correlated with runs than BA.
Braves actually led the league in OBP despite a worse average than the Phillies…
Correct. My point was simply that runs are most closely correlated with runs. The Braves finished 5th in runs, so in their particular case, OBP is not a great indicator of their offensive prowess.
I think what you’re disagreeing about is looking in the past versus future. To describe what a team has done, runs are the best way to describe scoring. To describe what a team might do in the future, other metrics come into play, like OBP, OPS, wOBA, etc.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
was just composing a post to that point. has there been a study comparing runs with rate stats like wOBA or EQA in terms of predictive value? certainly actual runs scored would be the best descriptive stat, but are they also the best predictive stat?
I think that’s one of the basic tenets of sabermetrics – basic counting stats tell you what happened, but they don’t do anything to predict the future because luck and other factors come into play. The future can be determined by things like SIERA, xFIP, wOBA, etc. because they do a better job predicting.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed about predictive value. I was only bemoaning the use of batting average as a descriptive stat, and by the mainstream media at that (including sports media – espn, mlb network, unforunately). I hold little hope of any extensive use of team wOBA, let alone OPS+, before the end of this decade.
Agreed – BA is one of the most useless stats out there. I would be happy if it disappeared because it really tells you nothing. I’m glad my roto league got rid of it for OBP seven or eight years ago.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Of the three “traditional” rate stats, I believe SLG is actually best correlated with run scoring, despite the contention that OBP is the most important thing. This is because SLG contains batting average (the largest part of OBP) and isolated power, while OBP completely ignores power.
I really wish whenever slugging percentage was invented it had been “total base average” instead – total bases (including walks) divided by plate appearances. This would be a much more accessible stat than even OPS and correlates nearly as well with run production.
That stat would pretty much just increase the numerator and denominator by the number of walks, right? (With the slight increase in the denominator by HBP and SF too.) So, it would benefit those who walked more and incorporate that into SLG (or TBA).
I haven’t seen that before – has anyone worked on that stat?
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, ignoring the minor events it’s SLG with walks incorporated.
I “created” it several years ago but I have no idea if anyone had come up with it earlier. I didn’t really go anywhere with it because it offered little advantage over OPS other than ease of explanation and OPS was already becoming mainstream. There were already lots of more advanced offensive metrics available at that time so it would have been pretty hard to get it accepted by anyone.
But if it had been created 50 years ago it could be the mainstream standard offensive metric today, instead of batting average. Anybody can understand that batting average is a weak measure of offense; if an Omar Infante or a Placido Polanco can challenge Albert Pujols for the batting title (yeah, I know they both have fallen well off the pace, but think back a couple of months) then it’s clearly not adequate to describe offensive production. So people use the Triple Crown stats to incorporate power; unfortunately, this underrates players who hit a lot of doubles and/or triples but not home runs, and overrates players who hit behind good on-base guys. But TBA would be a simple, easy-to-explain number that incorporates all the most important things a batter can do at the plate. The weights aren’t “correct” of course, but it gets a hell of a lot closer than simple batting average.
Valdez’s GIDP tendencies were far worse than even that. 189 PAs with men on, yes, but only 83 with a runner on first and less than 2 outs. So he grounded into a double play in almost a quarter of the applicable PAs. Incredible.
Yeah, I saw the 83 number, but I didn’t think that fully captured the situation, as he could hit into a double play with men on 2nd or 3rd and less than 2 outs. It wouldn’t be your normal ground out, but it’s still possible. I guess I’m not clear – are GIDP stats only when it’s a “traditional” double play or would that include the other types too? If it’s just the “traditional,” then you’re right, the 83 number is the key.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 4, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
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