Some Phillies Links For You, October 5, 2010: Return of Rolen, Messrs. Popularity, New York Mess
by WholeCamels on Oct 5, 2010 8:22 AM EDT
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PrintQ & A with Phillies president Montgomery
And although people chose not to see it that way, that's why we converted Lee for some prospects [Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, J.C. Ramirez]. I have no interest in rehashing all that.
NEXT QUESTION.
Steve Phillips' Phillies-Reds Breakdown
Just in case you wanted, you know, Steve Phillips' opinion.
Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon own up to own failures during Mets' decline since Game 7 of NLCS in 2006
They need to be put in stocks and pelted with rotting vegetables.
Mets must copy Phils
Bahahahahahaha
Frank: Favorite's crown is a new feel for Phillies
It's nerve-wracking to be the King.
20 things to ponder about the Reds
Some Reds factoids!
Rolen fills role in Reds clubhouse
How much would Rolen luuuvvvv sticking it to the Phillies?
Phillies hitting coach Gross wasn't seeking changes, just a connection with players
They address this in the article, but really, how much did this have to do with anything?
Phillies Are Favorites According To TBS Crew
We're doomed. Also, Ron Darling's Stockholm Syndrome is quite real.
FanHouse's 2010 MLB Playoff Predictions
We're really, really doomed.
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is it the actual women, or his choice of appropriate times and venues to have sex with them?
by Wet Luzinski on Oct 5, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
The radio airwaves, when not rehashing the Eagles, have been dedicated to the question of “when have you ever been so confident that a Philadelphia team WILL win and has nothing to worry about it.” It’s totally infuriating.
And that is exactly why, if this team does not indeed win it all, then people will be over reacting like never before. The whole season will be a failure in their eyes.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
It’s all a pretty cynical ploy, if you ask me. The radio spends their time discussing the Phillies in this “sure thing” light so on the very good chance that they do get knocked out, they will be able do an abrupt about face and paint the team as a bunch of gutless chokers. This is what stations like 610 thrive on, because it “makes good radio.” It’s so transparently reactionary, it makes me sick.
At the same time, when you present the team as a sure thing, it gives you a convenient, built-in justification for not discussing them and instead focusing on the Eagles.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I have been frightened since Spring Training when every single baseball preview magazine I picked up (Sporting News and several others) predicted the Phillies to at least make it back to the WS.
It has been an unusual feeling, to be sure. On the one hand, my father has instilled in me since the early 80’s the typical ‘waiting for the other shoe to drop’ feeling. On the other hand, being the favorite can be very fun as well.
Well, at least this year I don’t think we have to worry about a strike interrupting the Phillies’ chances to get back to the World Series. Like your dad, I know that feeling and one of those sucker pucnches that took a lot of the wind out of the Phillies’ sails was in 1981, the strike in mid-June. The team had just gotten things going well, winning 9 of 11 to overtake the Cardinals for first place, then, boom. End of play.
by phillyinportland on Oct 5, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I have wrestling with this myself and the thought that always throws the 2 card on my mental game of asshole is the following:
If I were not a fan of the Phils and I watched them get pretty damn close to winning the WS last year with Cliff Lee and a mentally unsettled Hamels I’d probably bet that the same team with a better Hamels, Halladay and Oswalt does deserve to be the favorites.
I then shiver, look up to the sky for falling shoes and go on about my day.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
Do you watch a game that you DVR’d if you know the outcome?
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
Personally I always avoid (somehow) the score etc.
I have d bag friends that know I am DVR’ing and text me scores but I don’t fall for that anymore.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
I don’t even have the self control to avoid the score. I have DVR’d one game in my life and that was last years Winter Classic. And that was only because of how awesome the event was. I watched it live…well it and the Penn State bowl game.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I haven’t watched an Eagles game live in the past 10 years thanks to DVRs (and before them, VCRs). I think I’ve only once had the outcome spoiled by someone. If you don’t know the outcome, it’s live to you! (And, frankly, it takes less than 1.5 hours to watch instead of 3+.)
by David S. Cohen on Oct 5, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Usually what I do is I follow the game on my phone – and if the game is good, then I fast forward through the events to see what the ‘turning points’ of the game is.
by WanderingMoses on Oct 5, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Montgomery Interview
That interview made me feel a bit encouraged and apprehensive at the same time. On one hand, I like that Monty understands the need to get younger and having a balanced payroll. But, then I thought, if he and Rube really understand this then why have they done things like:
-consistently sign 30+ year olds to longer contracts than necessary
-refuse to give young bullpen arms a decent shot while opting to pay Baez 2.5 mil -consistently invest among the lowest amount in the draft and international signings
The results have been great, but the youth rhetoric rings a little hollow to me based on the actions from the past few years.
While some individual moves are certainly worth criticizing, the overall lack of emphasis on youth in the last few years is justified because the front office has seen the team (correctly) as being in “win now” mode. Adding established veterans to help squeeze as many playoff runs and championships as possible out of the Utley/Rollins/Howard/Hamels/Werth core was the right thing to do.
I agree with the additions, what I don’t agree is the extra years that Rube seems to give away fairly easily. (I think there was a good article on this tendency by MLB Trade Rumors) The issue isn’t adding Raul for the playoff push it’s committing to him for longer than necessary and making the team inflexible.
I disagreed with the Ibanez contract too, but please explain how that sacrificed the team’s future. It didn’t. Under what scenario would giving Ibanez two years instead of three have helped the Phillies reload with youth in 2011? There is none, unless you think we would have then refused to deal Michael Taylor in the Halladay trade, which would have had some drawbacks of its own. At most, signing Ibanez to a shorter contract would have “allowed” the Phillies to extend Werth (if that’s even a good idea, which is arguable), but that is not reloading with youth.
Well, Amaro thought that 3 years was what it would take to sign Ibanez, and clearly that was a mistake given the way the market for OFs played out that offseason, but it’s not like that contract’s been an albatross.
But my point is that I’m willing to give Monty the benefit of the doubt, because focusing on veterans was the correct approach in the last few years, and getting younger will be the correct approach in the coming years. And he seems to get that.
A lot of those are pretty dubious and seem to me to be filler to make the list look artificially longer. The Blanton, Schneider, Hamels, and Rollins contracts were all wise moves at the time they were made. Some people questioned Polanco, but not strongly. I take the point on Baez, Moyer, and Gload, but other than Moyer (who they could have offered arbitration to), I’m not going to get up in arms about giving 2-year deals instead of 1-year deals.
That’s a tremendously inaccurate analysis. How have they “consistently” signed 30+ year olds to longer contracts than necessary. I count exactly two: Ibanez and Howard. And the Ibanez contract was only three years, so even if was too long, it wasn’t capable of being a team-killer.
Also, what young bullpen arms didn’t get a decent shot? I count exactly one: Mathieson. And even though I agree that Mathieson should have gotten a shot this year, it is a question that reasonable minds could disagree on. Mathieson had exactly 32.1 post-TJ innings coming into the season. What’s more, Mathieson is still here and capable of winning a spot next year. Their decision, at worst, only delayed his promotion to the majors. He wasn’t traded to another team to make room for Baez.
Also, what is your factual basis for saying they “consistently invest among the lowest amount in the draft and international signings”? A lot of people say this, but I have never seen anyone back it up with facts. These are numbers that should be ascertainable from public information. I’m inclined to think that if the accusation were actually based on real facts, as opposed to assumptions made for the purpose of supporting people’s hobby-horses, then people would actually cite numbers. You do not, nor has anyone else.
I agree that the contracts can’t be categorized as team killers, and I think my post came off as more critical then I wanted it to be.
As for the draft spending, there has been research done by BA. I’d find the link but I’m not on my home computer and can’t remember by password (I’ll post late when I get back from travel if I remember). The Phils have been consistently in the bottom in both total spent and in slot vs. bonus measures. It hasn’t hurt them much as it could have since they seem to have a competitive advantage in scouting finding more than their share of low round gems. In regards to international signings and development, the current owners basically dismantled the Latin American academies about 15-20 years ago. They’ve turned it around recently, but we aren’t back to levels we saw in the 80s. James for Phuture Phillies (I think) posted a link to an article about it a while ago. I’ll ask him if he still has it.
Well I’m not going to take your word on it. Post the numbers and I’ll evaluate it then. The decisions that Bill Giles made in the 1980s are not particularly relevant to what we’re discussing today. Calling them the “current owners” is misleading and dishonest. The Phillies are owned by a limited partnership. The limited partners are like shareholders. The “owner” for all practical purposes is the general partner. It bothers me that you would so carefully word your statement the way you did to make it technically correct.
Dude, I’m really not trying to tip-toe around facts or be disingenuous. I get it that you disagree with me, but you don’t have to be hostile or attack my integrity.
Here are some articles for you
Phils bottom 5 in 2010 draft spending (first 10 rounds): http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2935
Bonus expenditures in draft, 2008-2010, Phils in bottom 5:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=2928
If you want more, I can give you more, but that’s a good start. The lack of spending has nothing to do with Bill Giles in the 1980s.
But: 24, 75, 27
Those are the spots of the Phillies’ highest draft picks in the last 3 years, which holds down their bonus spending relative to teams that draft higher. I guess you could complain that they don’t go wild handing out $1M+ bonuses to HS guys in the later rounds, but I’m not sure how you can complain about the team’s ability to sign and develop amateur talent generally.
Look, I'm not speculating as to reasons...
But there seemed to be an argument over what the facts were. And the fact is that the Phillies spent a little over 6.5 mil in the draft in 08 (which put them a respectable but not overwhelming 11th in draft expenditures. In 09 and 10, they’ve only spent a little over 3 mil….
So the Phillies are spending less in the draft, to the point where they’ve been among the last five in MLB the last two years….for whatever reason.
the reason would be the fact that their draft allotment was among the last five in baseball. you can’t simply ignore that.
by perfectdepth on Oct 5, 2010 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe that's the reason...
But again, a poster was arguing over the fact that the Phillies haven’t spent a lot in the draft the last few years.
That is a fact. Maybe there is a good reason for it as you have pointed out. But I just wanted to give the poster who was claiming he didn’t think it happened the raw facts.
Right, the implication was that the Phillies were spending less than they “should”. The response was that without seeing the actual data, it’s hard to tell.
You’ve kindly provided the data, and while on the face they support the implication that they should have spent more, when you consider their draft position, it’s not clear at all.
Now I wonder if anyone has done research comparing the Phillies to other teams drafting at similar spots to see how their spending compares.
Still, I’m kind of uncomfortable with this idea that we can figure out what the Phils “should” be spending on the draft. Why focus on process rather than results? Between what’s on the ML roster right now, what’s been traded to other clubs for star players, and what’s still in the minors, the Phils have produced an enormous amount of talent in recent years. That they’ve done so quietly and cheaply is to their credit.
To play devil’s advocate, I guess the theory that if our current process led to our current results, which seem very good, then spending even more money would lead to even better results in proportion to how much more money we spend.
But that may or may not be correct.
I think you’re putting too much stock in raw numbers for two reasons.
one, the Phillies in recent years have often gone above slot after the tenth round. cf. “The Phillies will have spent over $1M on bonuses after the first 20 rounds [in 2010], which will likely put them in the top 15 among all teams.”
two, the Phillies in 2008–10 spending are sandwiched between the Marlins and the Braves, two teams which consistently produce very good young players. scouting matters too; it’s not just how much you throw at your signings.
the Phillies aren’t going to spend as much as the Pirates or Nationals because they don’t draft as high, and they’re not going to spend as much as the Red Sox or Yankees because they have a different draft philosophy. neither one of those necessarily means that the organization is cheap.
by perfectdepth on Oct 5, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Haven't most of the Phillies real successes....
in the draft come from signing good players in the first few rounds?
Chase Utley, 15th overall
Ryan Howard, 5th round
Jimmy Rollins, 2nd round
Cole Hamels, 17th overall
Dom Brown might be the first of their late round toolsheds to turn out, which would be awesome, but the fact that the Phils are now spending a lot of money past the 20th round isn’t exactly reassuring, given that they’ve not really had a lot of success with these players so far.
and the Phillies first picks were 24th in 2008, 75th in 2009 (no first round pick), and 27th in 2010. players of that caliber will not be available at those picks. you have to take a different strategy.
and of course they haven’t had success with players they drafted only two years ago, because those players are still in the minor leagues. that much should be fairly self-evident.
by perfectdepth on Oct 5, 2010 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly right (though I see I’ve been beaten to the point below).
Still, for further clarification: Jarred Cosart (38th round pick); Brody Colvin (7th round pick); Jonathan Singleton (8th round pick); Matt Rizzotti (46th round pick); Matt Way (36th round pick); Mike Schwimer (14th round pick); Austin Hyatt (15th round pick); Nick Hernandez (12th round pick); Domingo Santana, Sebastian Valle, and Bello Garcia (international signings).
All of these players have a decent shot at contributing at the big league level, albeit in different quantities and roles. This speaks to pretty tremendous scouting, and I appreciate the spending philosophy that allows stockpiling these scouting hunches/observations through sub-10th round picks.
international prospects are an important point: skimming over the end-of-season lists, there’s also Cesar Hernandez who was ranked 9th in the NYPL. those bonuses are, of course, not included in these rankings.
by perfectdepth on Oct 5, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely; Hernandez is one I definitely should have included, and the Phils just signed a toolsy (sorry TP) LHP named Franklyn Zavala for 300K. Some other high profile (at least now) signings: Santana for 330K; Valle for 30K; and (for nostalgia’s sake) Carlos Ruiz for 8K. Again, going for a lot of smaller priced signings, eschewing the big risk, big money deal — prudent stuff.
I will forgive this one offense.
Anyway, it’s interesting that the Phils’ spending in 2008 differs so much from 2009-2010. In 2008 (the Hewitt-Collier-Gose-Knapp draft), they were 11th and above the mean. Then in 2009, they were 29th and in 2010 they were 27th. Then again, as you note, most of their major international signings have come in the past two years. Santana was the first big one I remember reading about, and that was in ’09.
The current top 3 prospects in the system – Singleton, Cosart and Colvin – were all later-round, above-slot signings.
Thank you
The Red Reporter fellows are also fancy gentlemen (and ladies) of great refinement. We shall be running their answers to our questions in a little while.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Watch out, NL.
And I agree with the above sentiments about getting too cocky. As fans, this year needs to approached with cautious optimism, as the Phillies are the favorite, but the favorite does not always win (see 2001 Mariners as one example).
No offense to him or anything but why are halladay and hamels in the back?
by SportingFanaticism on Oct 5, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s like the superimproved version of Lemonparty. (WARNING: Do not Google at work)
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Alright so tomorrow night I have work refereeing IM football up at school, starting at 530 and ending at 830. So i need to know something…what are the odds of tomorrow night’s game getting postponed a little bit due to rain? I was rather infuriated to find out that we got the 530 start time, which in my mind I see as the shittiest of all starting times, next to the afternoon game. So will tomorrow night’s game get delayed a bit, so that I can at least see an inning or 2?
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 5, 2010 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
I suspect that MLB would strongly resist delaying it, if at all possible. They don’t want it running into the Yankees game.
Ah, the fate is sealed then
Piss
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 5, 2010 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
current accu-weather hourly forecast
3pm – mostly cloudy, 63
4pm – rain, 64
5pm – cloudy, 63
6pm – mostly cloudy, 62
7pm – rain, 60
8pm – mostly cloudy, 57
9pm – mostly cloudy, 55
thanks for the weather TP
I figure I’m missing the most crucial game of the series, because if Volquez doesn’t pitch well and the Reds lose, I feel the series has a high probability of being over in 4 max, 3 minimum
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 5, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I see that Scott Eyre is throwing out the first pitch tomorrow
700 Level has the deets
But loved this comment:
Uh, Scott…in addition to throwing the ceremonial first pitch, any chance you could also throw against some lefties in the 7th? posted by Pete D
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
One of the few drawbacks of making the postseason several years in a row is that you start running low on old heroes to bring back to throw out the first ball.
“And now throwing out the ceremonial first pitch in game 2 of the NLDS, please welcome Phillies great Wes Chamberlain.”
Whew, for a second there I thought you were going to type Wes Helms. Almost threw up.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
I was originally going to type Midre Cummings, and decided to ramp down my obscure references slightly.
I dunno… I guess he was better than Chamberlain, but Jefferies’ contract made him hugely detrimental to the team. He was probably a net negative, while Chamberlain was a net positive as a role player for a while.
I’m seperating financials from it. I see your point. When I reminisce about a player I think he was a good player or a decent player. Not he was good for his contract size. Current players are different because I worry about the effects down the road. I don’t bother with that in hindsight.
I was just throwing a random nostalgic name out...
but I loved the development of this conversation!
Could you see Mayberry making two OF assists in a playoff game?
Neither could I.
by WanderingMoses on Oct 5, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Always thought it interesting...
Even in season-long averages,
in baseball, the very best teams win 2/3 of their games.
The worst teams win 1/3 of their games.
That 1/3 in the middle is what decides everything.
A lot of luck involved, and in a short series, anything can happen.
Gotta love Lincecum
Maybe it’s the hair and the dope, but Tim Lincecum has always reminded me of the UCLA Bill Walton.
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