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Bill James 2011 Phillies Projections

EDITOR'S NOTE: Front-paged. Let the discussions begin! - WC

Bill James has already come out with his 2011 projections and given us Phillies fans some reasons to back away from the cliff following the Giants loss and impending departure of Werth. (hint: Domonic Brown)

Hitters

AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA

Brian Schneider:

.236/.321/.384/.297

Last year was essentially the 2nd best year in his career by wOBA standards so I wouldn't expect a similar year as last year. He also projects 294 plate appearances for Schneider this year, I hope its going to be much lower than that.

Carlos Ruiz:

.270/.360/.447/.341

A little bit worse year than last year as expected due to BABIP regression but other than that, his counting stat projections are almost the exact same as Ruiz's 2010 year.

Ryan Howard:

.276/.368/.547/.393

This would be a much needed and big bounce back year. Hopefully James is correct in a resurgent walk rate(11.9%) and that the power for 43 HRs is still there. A year like that projection wouldn't make that contract too much of an albatross yet.

Chase Utley:

.288/.387/.497/.380

I really hope all this nonsense that the Phillies should trade Utley stops. It's annoying and asinine. He's still the Phillies best position player. Next year should quiet those people down a bit.

Jimmy Rollins:

.266/.329/.424/.336

This is probably Rollins' most important year of his career(coming into the season). He needs to prove he can remain healthy and more productive than his past two years in order to get a new contract. Like Utley, this Valdez should be playing instead of Rollins nonsense needs to stop too. Like coming into last year, one would have to think his BABIP would bounceback closer to career norms. If it doesn't, something is afoul.

Placido Polanco:

.295/.342/.391/.322

Very similar to last year, as long as he can keep up that solid defense at third last year.

Raul Ibanez:

.270/.343/.446/.346

He's not getting dealt unless we chip in probably 75% of his salary, so he's staying. It'd be great if Ibanez can get back to 20HRs like James projects but I believe this projection is a tad on the high end.

Ross Gload:

.279/.329/.426/.332

Slightly worse year, but not still decent for a backup outfielder. His counting stats are very similar to last year.

Ben Francisco:

.271/.336/.446/.342

Almost identical year as last year, but James predicts a lot more plate appearances(330 total in '11), which may be true with Werth leaving. There's been some unnecessary heat toward Francisco but he's still somewhat young(29) and cheap. I'll take a .342wOBA from an OF4 anyday at that price anyday.

Shane Victorino:

.279/.343/.431/.342

An uptick in average and OBP with an improve on last year's low BABIP(.273) and a slight decrease in homers. Pretty much what I expected.

Domonic Brown:

.288/.346/.505/.372

26 HRs and 28 SBs in almost 600 plate appearances. If he puts up those numbers, we won't be missing Werth nearly as much as we thought. His strikeout rate was very concerning last year in his limited time but a 23.9% as James projects certainly wouldn't be too bad.

 

 

Pitchers

K/9, BB/9, WHIP, ERA, FIP

 

Roy Halladay:

6.98/1.4/1.11/3.16/3.19

I'd take the under on the ERA and the over on the K/9.

Roy Oswalt:

7.17/2.12/1.18/3.38/3.48

Seems pretty accurate as he benefited from a low BABIP and a slightly inflated K/9 last year. Still a great year though if he achieves those projections.

Cole Hamels:

8.59/2.38/1.17/3.45/3.70

He proved he wasn't the pitcher his ERA showed in 2009 and actually was better than 2008's version. Hopefully his velocity remains the same as last year. He could keep improving but I'd agree with the more conservative projection. Hopefully a .39 increase in ERA would cause people to hate him again.

Joe Blanton:

5.95/2.48/1.36/4.22/4.29

Everyone's favorite player to hate at the moment. He pitched much much better from July through October last year which many fail to realize(check his xFIP those months). A career best 9.0% swinging strike last year was also surprising. Midseason, I hear many fans even proclaim Kendrick is better, absurd. At 10.5 million, I think he's paid pretty much at market value. If he does what James projects, people will start hopping back on the bandwagon.

Kyle Kendrick:

4.12/2.51/1.40/4.47/4.66

Nothing really out of the ordinary, although slightly better. Not sure I really buy into a .22 decrease in FIP.

Brad Lidge:

11.4/4.2/1.28/3.45/3.4

I don't buy the uptick in K/9 as his swing strike and velocity have been consistently decreasing. He was a bit lucky with BABIP last year (.260). I'd be happy with that ERA/FIP projection but I have the feeling he's going to be slightly higher. One last year before that contract is off the books.

Ryan Madson:

7.95/2.69/1.27/3.62/3.55

Not sure where those pessimistic projections come from. He's been improving every year. An almost 3K/9 drop is pretty extreme.

Danys Baez:

5.71/4.34/1.37/4.17/4.79

Didn't like the signing then, still don't like it. I'd bet more on a total collapse than that much of an improvement, if any. In slight defense of Baez, he's slightly better than his 5.48 ERA suggests. Although that's not saying much. 

David Herndon:

4.85/2.6/1.48/4.85/4.48

I don't mind Herndon, I think he still has enough potential to be a serviceable reliever, although James doesn't really think so for next year. He throws pretty hard fastball (92.2MPH) and a swinging strike rate(7.8%) that could show an improvement on his K/9 next year. I think he'd beat those projections if he's back next year.

 

 

Other notables

Jose Contreras:

6.56/3.2/1.37/4.12/4.16

Jayson Werth:

.275/.375/.493/.380

Wilson Valdez:

.260/.312/.335/.289

Mike Sweeney:

.267/.342/.435/.335

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