Phillies close to Contreras deal?
by PhillyFriar on Nov 14, 2010 10:49 PM EST
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edit: as you've no doubt heard by now, this is a done deal--two years, $5.5 million with a club option for 2013.
ESPN.com's Enrique Rojas is reporting tonight that the Phillies and Jose Contreras are close to agreeing to a 2 year, $5 million deal. The agreement would apparently include performance incentives and a third-year option.
I'm unsure how I feel about this. On one hand, Contreras adapted very well to bullpen duty, posting excellent composite stats (9.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 44.7% GB) en route to a 3.19 SIERA -- best among Phils relievers not named Ryan Madson, and, for comparison's sake, the same as that of Cole Hamels. On the other hand, this is a soon-to-be 39-year old pitcher we're talking about here, and decent bullpen help is (supposed to be) pretty fungible.
Oh well, as long as this 2 year, $5 million deal doesn't turn out like the last one the Phillies gave a Cuban pitcher...
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Maybe Baez and Contreras will flip-flop in 2011.
Okay, probably not. I really like Contreras and I think his stuff is certainly good enough to repeat his 2010 season, so I’m not really bothered by this—as much as I hate giving multi-year deals to middle relievers given their volatility as year-to-year commodities.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Yeah, I just reread what I wrote above, and realize that it’s a little more negative than I intended. Contreras at that price is actually a pretty good deal, all things considered. Truth be told, I think I’m also a bit influenced by the dud follow-up campaign of the Phils’ last successful bullpen conversion project (and one they dodged a bullet on when he turned down the $3.25 million deal they offered him).
by PhillyFriar on Nov 14, 2010 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
I believe there were a few more warning signs with Park than they are with Contreras. I think it’s a decent deal.
Small sample size warning….
The warning signs were
He did strike out 1.2 less per nine and walk 1 more per nine than Jose as well. Chan Ho’s HR/9rate was one of the lowest of his career as well. Jose’s was about 10% lower than normal for him.
All in all, if healthy, and he doesn’t show his age, this seems to be a safer signing than Park would have been.
The only major difference between ’09 Chan Ho Park and ’10 Park is that the 2009 version had a HR/9 rate of .054, while in 2010, it was 1.27. And his career HR/9 is 1.22. His walk rate actually went down this year (2.69 from 3.56 in ’09).
I like this deal. For one thing, Contreras did most of his good work in the absence of Lady Luck: .318 BABIP, 77.3% LOB.
by ThinMountainAir on Nov 15, 2010 9:37 PM EST up reply actions
you’re looking at Park’s overall numbers. he was dramatically better as a reliever than as a starter. if you’re going to talk about predicting how he would pitch in 2010 as a reliever, you need to look at his splits.
as a reliever, Park struck out 9.4 per 9 and walked 2.9. his BABIP was .316, so he certainly wasn’t hit-lucky. on the other hand, his HR rate was obviously unsustainable, as he didn’t give up a single HR in relief.
comparing his 2010 performance to his 2009 relief performance, it seems clear that his increased strikeout rate was not repeatable. Yankee Stadium may have been a bad place for him to pitch, considering that he gave up 5 HR in only 19 innings there (4 HR in 44 IP everywhere else).
what that has to do with Contreras is that he also pitched to a career high K/9 in 2010. in his rookie year with New York in 2003 he struck out 9.1 per 9, but from 2004 to 2009 (more than 1,000 innings), he struck out only 6.5 per 9. he also cut his walk rate dramatically in 2010, from 3.3 per 9 over his entire career to 2.5.
anyway, the point I’m making is that the red flags you could have pointed to for Park after 2009 are pretty much there for Contreras as well.
by perfectdepth on Nov 15, 2010 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
Aah, you’re right. I forgot just how bad he was as a starter and how good he was as a reliever in ’09.
by ThinMountainAir on Nov 15, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
Atleast RAJ didn’t give out the unneeded 3rd year. At this price I’m good with it.
BOILER UP!! 2010-2011
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
by EREX21 on Nov 15, 2010 8:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Is there a reason FanGraphs and Bill James don’t assign a WAR value to Contreras (like everybody else) for next year? Just curious.
Sounds good :)
While the length of the deal gives me some pause, I would like to see him back. Any word on whether the incentives are part of or on top of the 5 mil?
by dannijd on Nov 15, 2010 9:49 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I’m with the folks who are worried about reliever volatility, but I’m pleased if only because, a) I think Contreras has a good shot at repeating his results this year (based on nothing but anecdotal evidence, unfortunately) and b) I think Ruben didn’t preemptively outbid the market on this contract. Chances are that someone would have offered something similar, I’d bet.
I'm happier about this contract than Baez's
But not really happy. If Contreras stinks next year this contract will assure that he’s going to have to actually die to not be brought back in 2012.
BUT HE THROWS A SPLITTER
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Nov 15, 2010 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
He is saving that for Baez’s next contract.
by dannijd on Nov 15, 2010 1:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
While I understand that we need relief pitchers, don’t you think it’s unlikely that they will re-sign Baez after next season?
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
I was hoping you’d say that! So, the question is: by posting this, were you, in fact, the one who killed the joke? Another question: does this comment reveal a level of self-awareness previously feared to be lacking?
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
The robots have become self-aware?
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 15, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Yay!
I can keep my name!
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Nov 15, 2010 1:33 PM EST reply actions
Bonine and the Bonanza’s isn’t quite out of the question
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 15, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Corporate sponsorship from Chick-fil-a. Someone should make this happen.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Nov 15, 2010 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
The fallback option was “Little Bastardo”
"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez
by Jose and the Contrarians on Nov 15, 2010 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
In other news, Ryne Sandberg is our new AAA coach and Davey Lopez is going to work for Eddie Wade and the Astros.
The Astros? Guhhhhhhhh. Michael Bourn is going to be SO ANNOYING. Like, so much more than he already is.
by ThinMountainAir on Nov 15, 2010 1:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Provided Bourn can actually get on base 70 times next year, I wouldn’t rule out 70 SBs for him. Combining his speed with Lopes’ knowledge is scary.
The Bourn Supremacy
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Nov 15, 2010 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
The hiring of Sandberg shouldn’t be glossed over here. That gives the club two well thought of “managers of the future” in Sandberg and Samuel for when Cholly finally retires. It will be nice to have a few in house options to interview.
Morandini
Its a day of reunions.
The Phillies said the remainder of their 2011 player development staff will be announced at a later date, but Mickey Morandini is expected to be named to the staff in some capacity.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101115&content_id=16099602&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
I can’t read MM’s name without hearing it in HK’s voice.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Nov 15, 2010 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Posey gets ROY
I’m sure the TC contingent might have a few words on the matter
A World Series ring and RoY? Pretty good rookie year. I believe the same thing happened to Cal Ripken, and he did not win another World Series.
by ThinMountainAir on Nov 15, 2010 2:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
As always, they're keeping it classy over at TC
First… Posey just “edged out” Heyward, assuming you call 20 first place votes to 9 close. And my personal favorite, regarding the fact that Heyward was left off of one voter’s ballot altogether:
I’ll put money on a guy from Philly just to blend in with the rest of their team and fan base.
‘Terrible preview…pretty weak, didn’t learn anything new. pretty sad." – mastermike
by mvhsbball on Nov 15, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Their fan base is great especially when they run on the field and get tased. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch of jackas*es.
Eddie V
Suck it Jason Heyward!
by Boundforbeach on Nov 15, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
If Dom Brown wins RoY next year (Phils will have Roy, Roy and RoY!) it will be even better.
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 15, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Signs Point to Yes
/Magic 8 Ball and Bill James
by Boundforbeach on Nov 15, 2010 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
especially if his stat line is less awesome than Heyward’s, which is likely.
by Wet Luzinski on Nov 16, 2010 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
I’d have gone with Heyward personally, but it’s nearly a toss up, so there isn’t a “wrong” choice. Although I’ll admit that it’s nice to see Braves fans aggravated.
Also, I’ll agree that it’s completely ridiculous that Heyward got left off a ballot. But here’s an interesting, food-for-thought type of question: is it any more ridiculous than Johnny Venters actually making a ballot?
And the Venters nomination did not even come from an Atlanta writer!
by dannijd on Nov 15, 2010 6:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
to me, Gaby Sanchez getting two first place votes is worse. I mean, Sanchez was replacement level for 1B. Venters at least was a very good reliever.
by perfectdepth on Nov 15, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Good for him!
It was close, but I agree with the voters. That being said, Heyward is an amazing player, and the NL East is going to be scary as he, Stanton and Morrison in Florida, and Strasburg and Harper in Washington develop.
Had Strasburg not been injured, I wonder how the ROY voting would have turned out…
by dannijd on Nov 15, 2010 4:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Posey would have won.
It would be difficult to give it to any pitcher in a year with so many legit everyday players.
It was not so much the winner that I question (particularly given the splits)...
I was more wondering where he would have fallen among the also rans— how many votes he would have received.
I don’t think he’d have run away with it. It wouldn’t be unprecedented, but with so many great rooks in the NL this year I just don’t think he’d have won. Though it would not be unreasonable to argue he could have.
If he’d stayed healthy all season, he should’ve run away with it. Posey and Heyward had historic seasons for rookies; Strasburg was on pace for a historic season period. His 2.07 SIERA was so much better than every other starter in baseball, it’s laughable (Halladay was second at 2.93, for comparison’s sake). Granted, I think he would have regressed a bit with more innings, but that doesn’t really change my point.
by PhillyFriar on Nov 15, 2010 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting to note that one of these seasons won the ROY, and the other got 0 votes:
AB 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
A: 359 21 22 59 34 123 .259 .326 .507 .833
B: 312 17 22 63 33 100 .288 .356 .567 .923
A is Stanton, B is Howard. Howard clearly had the better year, but the difference in rookie classes, along with the3-votes-only structure of the voting, make a big difference.
Stanton’s year was even more impressive than Howard’s if you take ARL into account (Stanton was 4 years younger than Howard in their respective rookie campaigns). Unfortunately for Stanton, voters still get hung up on batting average, and .259 just doesn’t look all that good.
Personally, I’d rank them (1) Heyward, (2) Posey, (3) Garcia, (4) Castro, (5) Stanton … (84) Venters.
Putting aside the age difference for the moment (25 vs. 20), agreed from an offensive standpoint. Howard had the higher wOBA, .382 to .355
However according to Fangraphs, Stanton had the higher WAR, 2.7 to 2.3, due to better fielding stats. Baseball Reference has a similar difference, 2.8 Stanton to 2.4 Howard.
You’re missing the point. ARL means “age-relative-to-league.” From a development standpoint, Mike Stanton showing that kind of massive raw power before he’s legally able to drink is more impressive than a physically mature Ryan Howard putting up the line that he did. Howard was still a sophomore in college when he was 20.
Signed.
Phillies reach two-year deal with Contreras
Right-hander Jose Contreras has signed a two-year contract with a club option for 2013 with the Phillies, General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. announced today The contract guarantees Contreras $5.5 million and includes performance bonuses.
Contreras, 38, went 6-4 with four saves and a 3.34 ERA in 67 games in 2010 for the Phillies. He averaged 9.1 strikeouts per 9.0 innings (57 SO/56.2 IP) and the saves were the first of his professional career. In the postseason, Contreras went 1-0 with 4.0 scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out four.
Decent deal
Phillies probably had to give the second year…he proved himself this year as a good 7th/8th inning guy. They got a pretty fair price and I’m pleased that they chose Jose over Durbin.
I’m pleased that they chose Jose over Durbin.
Well stated. Combined with the Bonine signing, it certainly means the organization is cutting ties with Durbin, and I’m pleasantly surprised by that fact. (Not that I harbor any ill will against Durbin, mind you, I just think it isn’t worth paying him anything when you can find an equivalent pitcher on the scrap heap.)
I still remember the infamous game 5 from last year, so yes I hold grudges against Durbin. I feel like we gave a ring away.
by LeQuan Glover on Nov 15, 2010 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Indeed
Despite being a nice guy and a decent bullpen arm, there was nothing about Durbin that warranted paying him open market dollars when you can either fill the spot with a veteran on a minor-league deal or a Justin DeFratus.
The only reason to give Chad Durbin a raise is out of some sense of loyalty, Bill Giles-style. But those days are over, thank Jobu.
by ThinMountainAir on Nov 15, 2010 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
In that picture of Contreras above, either the shirt is billowing suggestively, or he’s got quite a rack!
Perhaps he shares off-season “conditioning programs” with Manny Ramirez.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Nov 15, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions
Camion Grande is BACK!!
I always get home too late to join in any meaningful conversation :-(
I think resigning Contreras is a good thing. He preformed well out of the bullpen and really was one of the more consistent relief pitchers (also has some nasty stuff). I believe it was his first year in relief. The contract gives reasonable $$ and benefits both sides. Not too sure how I feel about Durbin. He had some good games and some bad ones. If we get a good deal for him I’m ok with it, but wouldn’t pay big $$$ for him. Now we need some lefty RP.
"We are the Borg. Resistance is futile."
That's EL Camion Grande
And let’s hope he keeps mowing batters down.
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