2010-11 Offseason MLB Free Agent Predict-a-tron 3000
by WholeCamels on Nov 4, 2010 9:15 AM EDT
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PrintIt is now Day Three since the end of the World Series, meaning teams have two days of exclusive negotiation left with their prospective free agents. It's tantamount to that awkward time when your live-in (now ex) girlfriend hasn't moved out yet because she's still looking for a new place and it's not the end of the month yet, so you're sleeping on the couch while she's going out with her friends and staying out until all hours and probably making out with skeevy dudes in flat-brimmed caps while you sit alone and catch up on the third season of "Lost." Just a hypothetical, of course.
Anyway, let's play a little game! Predict where the following free agents will wind up. For real fun, I also want you to predict the terms of the contracts for Jayson Werth, Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, and Derek Jeter.
Jayson Werth
Cliff Lee
Carl Crawford
Adam Dunn
Derek Jeter
My picks below...
Jayson Werth - Red Sox, 5/$90MM
Cliff Lee - Yankees, 6/$140MM
Carl Crawford - Yankees, 6/$95MM
Adam Dunn - White Sox, 3/$50MM
Derek Jeter - Yankees, 3/$68MM
Rafael Soriano - Braves
Adrian Beltre - Red Sox
Javier Vazquez - Cubs
Victor Martinez - Rangers
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Well, I can’t imagine I’ll get most of these correct, but I’ll take a swing at it. Apologies in advance:
Jayson Werth – Angels, 6/$110MM
Cliff Lee – Rangers, 6/$140MM
Carl Crawford – Yankees, 5/$95MM
Adam Dunn – Tigers, 4/$60MM
Derek Jeter – Yankees, 3/$39MM
Rafael Soriano – Mets, 3/$28MM
Adrian Beltre – White Sox, 5/$75MM
Javier Vazquez – Diamondbacks, no idea
Manny Ramirez – Blue Jays, no idea
Victor Martinez – Red Sox, no idea
Jayson Werth – Red Sox, 5/ $93 M
Cliff Lee – Yankees, 6/ $150 M
Carl Crawford – Mariners (yes I said Mariners), 5/ $95 M
Adam Dunn – Tigers, 3/ $38 M
Derek Jeter – Yankees, 4/ $50 M (with an out clause if he is moved from SS)
Rafael Soriano – Mets
Adrian Beltre – Blue Jays (this one’s a reach, but I’m thinking of this as similar to the Reds getting Rolen on a team that was only a year or two from contending)
Javier Vazquez – Angels
Manny Ramirez – Mariners (Another reach, but given his headcasiness, I’m assuming he’ll have a depressed market value and the M’s can grab him on a 1 year contract to DH and provide some pop in the worst Offense around.)
Victor Martinez – Red Sox
Jayson Werth – Giants, 5 /$90MM
Cliff Lee – Rangers, 6/$140MM
Carl Crawford – Yankees, 5/$95MM
Adam Dunn – White Sox, 3/$50MM
Derek Jeter – Yankees, 4/$90MM
Rafael Soriano – Braves – 3/$45MM
Adrian Beltre – Red Sox – 3/$36MM
Javier Vazquez – Nationals – 2/$22MM
Manny Ramirez – Blue Jays – 2/$30MM
Victor Martinez – Reds – 3/$40MM
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
This may be the goal...
But I will lay you odds that if it is, he overplays his hand- considering his age, I don’t think that he is going to get the deal Matt Holliday got in St. Louis (years wise, and possibly money wise as well). Holliday was younger when he signed the deal with career numbers better than Werth’s. I think he will get five years-ish, with a pay day under 100 million… possibly less if he overplays his hand too much.
Carl Crawford: Anaheim
Lee: Yankees
Victor: Detroit
Dunn: White Sox
Jeter: Yankees
Werth: Toss Up btwn Det., Boston, and San Fran.
Beltre: White Sox or Houston
Soriano: Rays
Vazquez:San Diego
Mariano: Yankees
Berkman: Seattle
Carlos Pena: Toronto
Vlad: Texas
Magglio Ordonez: PHILLIES!!!!
I could see Detroit for Werth.
Don’t want Ordonez. Maybe 5 years ago, but he isn’t what he was.
Nice freelancing in the bottom half of the list, BTW.
Yeah for real I love the initiative.
Magglio could be useful if the price is right. Devil in the details, etc.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
How do you guys feel about Cuddyer? I was thinking about him last night.
Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est.
Sorry, had some things to do at work….. Thanks for the compliments guys!!
Yeah, I put Ordonez because of that……. RH bat, getting up in age, may be willing to take a lesser contract, but still useful. He is also a good leader I have read before, at least in his early days in Chicago. But yeah, someone said 5 million, that sounds good. Half the price of Ibanez, and probably just as useful at the plate. And he could platoon, but the hot hand should always playing.
I like Cuddyer’s former versatility. Can he still play some 3rd? Stats show he is still all over the infield.
I'd pick Cuddyer over Ordonez
Cuddyer has a little more pop and balance in his stats, plus he’s 5 years younger than Ordonez. And yes, he plays 3rd base too.
Lol… I thought Dobbs WAS a baseball player?? He did a really good job Playong left bench!
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 6:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Joke
Nov. 4, 2010 2:32 PM — Nov. 4, 2010 6:03 PM
Yit-gadal v’yit-kadash sh’may raba b’alma dee-v’ra che-ru-tay, ve’yam-lich mal-chutay b’chai-yay-chon uv’yo-may-chon uv-cha-yay d’chol beit Yisrael, ba-agala u’vitze-man ka-riv, ve’imru amen.
Yet another victim of the Great Joke Genocide of 2010. May his death inspire a generation of resistance against this Fascist scourge.
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Cuddyer is coming off of knee surgery...
Still want the Phillies to sign him? I don’t have a problem with it necessarily, but wonder how it will impact his ability to play.
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 9:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's not like he's the RF of the future...
He’s more of a stopgap until any possible OF prospects come up. A short, say 2 year, contract for him would be fine.
Remember, we picked Jayson Werth off the trash pile as he was coming off of wrist trouble.
I understand that, and kind of wondered whether the Phillies could perhaps find their next really good outfielder in the same way that they found Werth or Victorino. My concern is more whether Cuddyer would be healthy and able to play the outfield to begin next season (the time that the Phillies may need him in Right Field the most).
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 10:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah his name is Elijah Dukes but he has some personality quirks to put it mildly and is, as of 4 hours ago unavailable. For how long, who knows….Dammit.
I don't think so.
Cuddyer’s deal with the Twins has one more year and 10.5 million left on it. I highly doubt that he is worth 10.5 million plus whatever the Phillies have to give the Twins to acquire him.
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 10:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Uggh
Watch your decimal places. He has a club option for 2011 with a 10,500 buyout. He won’t be a Twin anymore.
Now I screwed up the details. No buyout (I was all NFL in my head) 10.5 M option. No way they pick that up.
Jayson Werth – angels 6 for 110
Cliff Lee – Yankees 6 for 150
Carl Crawford – yankees 6 for 125
Adam Dunn – nationals 4 for 65
Derek Jeter – yankees 4 for 65
Rafael Soriano – Braves 4 for 40
Adrian Beltre – Red Sox 4 for 45
Javier Vazquez – Mets 3 for 36
Manny Ramirez – NOWHERE
Victor Martinez – Tigers 3 for 38
We did something similar over at Talking Chop....but I love Hot Stove season, so I thought I'd throw in my $.02
Jayson Werth – Red Sox – 5/$90M
Cliff Lee – Yankees – 6/$140M
Carl Crawford – Angels – 6/$110M
Adam Dunn – Red Sox – 4/$65M
Derek Jeter – Yankees – 3/$65M
Rafael Soriano – Yankees – 4/$40M
Adrian Beltre – Dodgers 3/$45
Javier Vazquez – Cubs – 2/$20M
Manny Ramirez – Barnum and Bailey Circus $20/hour
Victor Martinez – Rangers 4/$65
I love it, Mannytime at the Ringling Brothers Circus. See Manny walk the high wire? Can he fit in one of those clown cars?
You really think Manny is going to the Braves?
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
by FuquaManuel on Nov 4, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 7 recs
“Groundball to third base, Brooks Conrad is there…no it goes right through his legs into left field! Manny is there to pick it up…no it goes through his legs too!! I can’t believe what I’m seeing! It rolls all the way to the wall. Manny picks it up and throws it over the head of the cutoff man. Conrad is there to back it up. The runner is being sent from third. Conrad turns and the throw is…over the netting and into the stands.”
Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.
Just an innocent Braves fan, coming over for a little cross team conversation, and you take a shot at my team…..the nerve of some people!
by -Primetime21- on Nov 5, 2010 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions
That stuff about the stork might have been rather figurative as well.
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Nov 5, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
everything’s still cool with the easter bunny talk though right??
by -Primetime21- on Nov 5, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
WON’T SOMEONE THINK OF THE CHILDREN BRAVES FANS!
by perfectdepth on Nov 5, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t forget free lap dances from the bearded lady.
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
No chance the Braves sign Soriano, they would have no money left.
Morgan: Do you think I could come into the clubhouse after the game and display my ass for both those veterans and the younger guys?
Baker: Well, Joe, you are on the payroll of the team, and you're a legend, so I suppose — holy shit!
[Joe has appeared next to Dusty, in the dugout, completely naked]
Morgan: Hey.
Jayson Werth – Red Sox 6/$95M
Clifton Phifer Lee – Rangers 6/$145M
Carl Crawford – Giants 5/$91M
Adam Dunn – Cubs 3/$51
Derek Jeter – Yankees 4/75M intangibles (or dollars)
Rafael Soriano – Braves
Adrian Beltre – Red Sox
Javier Vazquez – Tigers
Manny Ramirez – Royals
Victor Martinez – Rangers
I didn't perform well when it mattered most.
Adam Dunn – Cubs 3/$51
That should obviously read “$51M.” The Chicago Cubs gigantic payroll will not be exploding anytime soon, thus causing them to pay their free agents below minimum wage.
I didn't perform well when it mattered most.
Good value on the part of the Cubs, though. The devil’s in the incentives, though: 500 PA gets a free Chicago style deep dish, an all-star election gets a case of Goose Island beer, and an MVP election gets one free month on the CTA.
Post-season play incentive:
"Ninety percent of this game is half mental" - Yogi Berra (SI, May 14, 1979)
by bandwagonesque on Nov 4, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I enjoy the premise of your game
Jayson Werth – Angels
Cliff Lee – For shits and giggles…Twins
Carl Crawford – Yankees
Adam Dunn – White Sox
Derek Jeter – Yankees
Rafael Soriano – Phillies
Adrian Beltre – Braves
Javier Vazquez – Cubs
Manny Ramirez – Detroit
Victor Martinez – Tampa Bay
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 4, 2010 5:47 PM EDT reply actions
I like that signing alot. Soriano would be beast. Also I like the below me signing of Javier Vazquez. I know he can be real terrible in a real hurry, but he has also proven a few times now that for some reason, he can pitch in the NL, but not the AL. Ok, sign him to a 1 yr $5 mil deal, that is bargain basement for a guy with his career numbers. He can again, yes be bad, but for one yr, you could easily cut your losses. But if he is truly successful, like he has proven he can be in this league & division, he would be a monster signing, and cheaper than Joe Blanton.
Eh. It’s not a matter of Vazquez not being able to pitch in the AL. His mechanics are very complicated. This would be a risky and unnecessary signing.
by ThinMountainAir on Nov 4, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, Soriano is going to get premium money, closer money. That would give the Phillies 2 bullpen guys getting big money (for a reliever), I just don’t think it’s worth it. Excellent point on Vazquez too though.
Counting the days until Brad Lidge gets dealt…FOR PROSPECTSSSSS
inter arma enim silent leges
by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Nov 5, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Apparently the Yankees won’t pursue Werth?
That’s bad news for him and good news for the Phillies.
If the Yankees won’t pursue, the Mets, Cubs and Dodgers can’t afford to, then it’s down to the Red Sox, Phillies and possibly the Giants and Angels?
"You can commit no mistake and still lose. That is not a weakness. That is life." - Jean-Luc Picard
I kind of think everything being said right now is about 98% posturing.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Yeah but the Yankees aint exactly spring chickens and Werth’s 32. I could see them more interested in Crawford who is 29.
This
Also, considering the outfielders they currently have, is there a chance that they go after neither, instead focusing on Lee, re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and maybe a couple of smaller signings?
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 9:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Would Werth sign with the Giants? He’s hinted to a dislike of AT&T Park multiple times. Then again, money has a way of talking.
I didn't perform well when it mattered most.
Sabathia said before he didn’t want to pitch in NY. But when push came to shove, or money came to the table, he was sitting there wearing navy pinstripes. But he also got an early opt out clause if because, if he didn’t like pitching in NY, he could just void the rest of his deal. But I believe that clause has already passed now. Just going on memory though. Someone probably has more knowledge of this than I.
I don't know if there was another early out in the deal...
But Sabathia can void the rest of his contract (93 million dollars) at the end of the 2011 season.
by dannijd on Nov 5, 2010 1:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Doubtful
The Giants are going to have a lot of holes to fill next year, as many of their players will be arbitration/ free agency eligible, and their ownership has said that their budget is not going to be going up all that much from where it is. While money has a way of talking, I doubt that the Giants will speak loudly enough to lure Werth to AT&T park.
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 7:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Also, again, I think the Tigers will be a player this year. Well, in the FA market I mean. I think Werth has a legimate shot to go to Detroit. Or the 2nd place finisher in the Carl Crawford sweepstakes. For some reason, I expect the Red Sox to be relatively quiet compared to normal yrs. But….I notice they have more than a few big contracts coming off the books. Maybe they make the push for Crawford? Still thinking the Angels for him though.
The Dodgers can afford anyone right now w/the legal woes they are going through.
Hot Stove Predict-a-tron: Trade Edition
What team’s uniforms will the following players be wearing come opening day:
Prince Fielder
Zack Greinke
Adrian Gonzalez
by dannijd on Nov 4, 2010 7:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Fielder: Brewers.
Greinke: Royals
Adrian Gonzales: Padres
I don’t see any of those 3 getting traded.
I didn't perform well when it mattered most.
Gonzalez will still be wearing a Padres uni, at least until July 31st……
Greinke is a weird subject, cause I think he has said he doesn’t want to pitch in a big market……If not a Royals uniform, maybe the Rays or Braves. I could also see Minnesota, but don’t see them trading in the division.
Fielder I think will end up wearing a White Sox uniform when it is all said and done. Alot of those big contracts are coming to an end (Konerko, Manny, Andruw, A.J., probably Bobby Jenks, plus money owed to Dye still) but they also have some arbitration guys like Alexei Ramirez & Quetin, but that is still alot of money to play with. With a huge hole at first, I think they will make a big push for big Prince.
Greinke is a weird subject, cause I think he has said he doesn’t want to pitch in a big market……If not a Royals uniform, maybe the Rays or Braves. I could also see Minnesota, but don’t see them trading in the division.
My first thought was Seattle, my second thought was who the hell would they trade for him?
I think Greinke and Gonzalez stay where they are but I think the Braves make a run at Fielder, although I would imagine that deal would probably have to involve Freddie Freeman, so perhaps not. I could see him possibly going to the Red Sox and an outside chance at the Giants and Mets as well.
by FearTheTurtIe on Nov 4, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Answering my own question....
I think Greinke and Gonzalez stay where they are, at least for now (would not be surprised to see either traded at the deadline). Greinke is going to be particularly tough to move, as I have heard that he has a partial no-trade clause that prevents him from being sent to many of the major market teams.
With all of the changes in Milwaukee, I would be somewhat less surprised if Fielder winds up getting moved. Sources have said that the Brewers do not expect to be able to give him another long term deal, and so may look to move him sooner rather than later in an attempt to maximize his value on the market. I am not really sure where he will wind up, though… the White Sox are a possibility, but some of it may come down to finding a buyer with both enough money to pay Fielder’s sizeable salary, and enough on the farm to pry him away… he is not going to come cheap.
Obscenities
You really think the Yankees spend $300 MM on three guys? Ye gods. Obscenities.
Speaking of : A WholeCamels Mock-U-Blog on “The Ex-Girlfriend: Playing Out the String” would make for some excellent hot stove reading.
Jayson Werth – Red Sox – 4/$70M
Cliff Lee – Yankees – 6/$115M
Carl Crawford – Yankees – 5/$85M
Adam Dunn – Nationals – 3/$40M
Derek Jeter – Yankees – 3/$60M for icon status
Rafael Soriano – Tampa Bay (PHILLIES I WISH)
Adrian Beltre – Red Sox
Javier Vazquez – Nationals or Marlins
Manny Ramirez – Toronto
Victor Martinez – Rangers
Chase Utley is so good that on one pitch he stole second, third and the shortstop's hat.
Jayson Werth- 5 years/ 92 million/ Either Red Sox or Tigers (outside chance of Angels)
Cliff Lee- 7 years/ 165 million/ Yankees
Carl Crawford- 6 years/ 110 million/ Tigers or Red Sox
Adam Dunn- 5 years/ 80 million/ White Sox (If he changes his mind on being a DH) 4 years/ 60 million/ Cubs (if he insists on playing in the field)
Derek Jeter- 4 years/ 64 million/ Yankees (where else?)
Rafael Soriano- 3 years/ 30 million/ Braves
Adrian Beltre- 4 years/ 65 million/ Angels
Javier Vazquez- 1 year/ no clue (probably not much considering his 2010)/ Dodgers
Manny Ramirez- 1 year/ 7 million/ White Sox (I expect this deal will be made practically in Spring Training, as Ramirez holds out for a big deal somewhere and does not get it)
Victor Martinez- Red Sox (They are going to need a catcher and I think the sides wind up working something out late). Other possibilities are the White Sox or Tigers… Weird and crazy possibility- Colorado.
by dannijd on Nov 6, 2010 1:20 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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