Baseball America releases Phillies Top 10 prospects
Subtitle: Attack of the Toolsy Toolsheds!
No, seriously -- beyond the obvious #1 in Domonic Brown, BA stocked the back end of the Top 10 list with outfielders Jiwan James (#7), Domingo Santana (#9), and Aaron Altherr (#10). There was, consequently, no room for polished back-end starters like Vance Worley or high upside relievers like Scott Mathieson or Justin De Fratus. I suppose I should be surprised by Tyson Gillies' omission, but he seems like the forgotten man this offseason.
There's a chat on the list for BA subscribers at 2:30.
over 1 year ago
PhillyFriar
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Is Jiwan James really faster than Gillies?
I think a lot of national commentators are still subconsciously leery about the drug issue for Gillies, based on a “when there’s smoke there’s fire” kind of thing. The charges being dismissed changes nothing when you start with the assumption that accused people are guilty.
Ok so what even if Tyson did do a little coke. He’s young and if he learns from his mistake I don’t see how that should diminish his ability to play baseball.
Part of me would love to see a Movie on the ‘86 Mets. Those two, on talent alone, should have been Hall of Fame caliber players, and I’ve always been grotesquely fascinated by their fall into drugs and mediocrity.
Absolutely but with the haze of drugs and half of them being serial liars would keep it from being “historically correct”.
See also, Doors, The.
"Call me dumb, call me stupid, whatever. I block shots."
If we get the kind of career from Gillies that the mets got from Doc and Darryl, I’d take that in a heartbeat.
Must read: The Worst Team Money Could Buy: The Collapse of the New York Mets by Bob Klapisch and John Harper.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 13, 2010 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
No, nikk makes a good point. Cocaine is bad and all, but not everyone who uses it becomes an out-of-control addict. There are, of course, legal ramifications either way, but even if we knew that the cocaine in the patrol car was TG’s, there’s a wide, wide distance between that and Darryl Strawberry.
That said, of course, we have no way of knowing if that cocaine belonged to him.
Totally agree. Even if the drug habit was serious you can always look at a case of someone like the current AL MVP to see that there is always a chance to get clean.
Agreed
But I still think it’s a fair thing for someone to take into account when analyzing a prospect. It may be unfair in this case, as the charges were dropped and maybe the drugs weren’t really his, but it is a fair thing to consider. Hamilton may be an MVP now, but if I were evaluating him from the Devil Rays perspective he was a bust for them. I think it’s somewhat naive to expect someone to look solely at on field production when evaluating a player. Injuries, arrests, drug problems, etc. are routinely taken into account and players are downgraded for them due to the increased risk. For that reason I have no problem with someone knocking Tyson down a few spots for it.
Yeah there are a lot of nuances here.
If someone can be confirmed to have used, then that is a legitimate risk factor and it’s fair to take that into account in evaluating a player. But it’s unfair to mock him as a “junkie” or call for him to be immediately cut, as some did with Gillies when he was arrested. Even an addict can get clean, and not all users are addicts.
In Gillies’ case, I think one can consider the indictment in evaluating him as a prospect, but only very slightly since the charge was thrown out. Anything more than a slight demerit is unfair. And of course, like you said, it has no relevance to a speed ranking. Regardless of how good a prospect he now is, he’s either fast or he isn’t.
I think the biggest demerit against Tyson is, he just didn’t have a great season when he did play. He had flashes, but even without the whole weird arrest thing I still dropped him about 3 places down from where I had him preseason. Some of that was the injury/drug weirdness, some of it was his performance, but a lot of it was great seasons from a few people ranked lower than him.
As a side note, I do worry about the over-hype of Santana. There’s a chance that 5 years from now he’s the next Dom Brown, but there is a way stronger likelihood that he’s the next Hewitt. I have a hard time ranking a guy in the Top 10 when he strikes out 43% of his at bats. If he gets that under control, then fine, but for any hitting prospect pitch recognition is the #1 red flag.
I have a problem with that too. Gillies this time last year was touted as the fastest player in all of baseball, possibly. An Arrest for Cocaine possession and a weird story surrounding don’t change what you did on the field. I have no problem with someone leaving him out of the Top 10, because they are taking the arrest into consideration, that’s fair, but to omit him otherwise for actually having the best speed tool is kind of a glaring bias, for me.
I should also have mentioned that there are two other notable absences from the Top 10: Phillippe Aumont and J.C. Ramirez.
I would so love to see those guys stick it to everyone by making it in the majors. Is there a word for the opposite of schadenfreude?
Not sure if others have heard this yet — I certainly haven’t — but Matt Forman just said in the BA chat that Aumont will enter 2011 strictly as a reliever.
On the plus side, he’s 22 (in January) and strikes a lot of fools out. But zut alors, those walk totals are staggering.
by Wet Luzinski on Dec 13, 2010 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
I hope not. I’m of the view that one should always wait until the last possible moment before deciding to move a pitcher to relief. Too early here.
Yeah. At the same age, Randy Johnson (obligatory “not comparing them” disclaimer!) was posting a 5.93 ERA in short-season A ball after being drafted.
Plus it’s not like Aumont even did all that badly last year. He stunk in AA, but he never should have been in AA to begin with. If he had spent the whole year at Clearwater and posted 130/71 K/BB and 4.48 ERA in 122 IP over a full season, people would have been mildly disappointed, but only mildly.
Mathieson is one high-upside reliever, but Mike Schwimer is another. If he dials down his walks/9 from 3.3 —curiously enough, where Madson was for his minor league career – to about 2.5 they could consider plugging him right in mid-season.
If Aumont comes around (speaking of walks- he’s a career 4.8/9IP guy- yecch) and Madson stays awesome, the Phillies bullpen could be a real strength.
from john sickels blog
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/12/13/1873459/ba-phillys-top-10
Here we learn from one commenter that Gillies’ ceiling is Endy Chavez, and from another commenter that Jiwan James is “vastly overrated” based on having seen him play twice.
I like Sickels’ writing, but I frequently get the feeling that his commenters are just talking out of their butts.
It’s the internet, most people are talking out their butts.
by Cormican on Dec 14, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Projected 2014 rotation?
Yes. Please. *drool
Contreras and I were just looking at him eating this iguana thing over white rice and he put it away like it was a double cheeseburger, you know?
by LeepinLizardz on Dec 13, 2010 8:10 PM EST via mobile reply actions
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