I was just wondering about what was going to happen next year with the guys who could become free agents, and decided to turn my thoughts into a fanpost, so here it is.
Just a quick rundown of what the offseason will probably look like after this upcoming season, assuming that...
a) the Phillise dump Blanton and are ok with whatever the payroll looks like after that
b) theyre ok with a similar payroll number next year too
c) theyre not planning on dumping Ibanez to fit Lee in this year
Rollins ($8.5mil), Madson ($4.5mil), Ibanez($11.5mil), Baez($2.75mil), Schneider ($1.5mil), and Gload ($1.6mil) are all straight up free agents after the 2011 season (2011 salaries in perentheses). Lidge has a $12.5 mil salary or a $1.5 mil buyout. I dont see how we pay him that much, so Im assuming (and praying) that he is not back with the team in 2012. Dannys Reyes' salary is $1.35mil or a $0.15mil buyout. That ones a wait and see I guess. Then the big issues; Cole Hamels, whos contract is up but is also arbitration eliglbe for the last time (he will make $9.5mil in 2011), and Roy Oswalt, who is either owed $16mil (same as 2011) or a $2mil buyout (although retirement is rumered to be another option). Theres also a bunch of arbitration eligble guys who I dont forsee making a whole lot more than they are going to in 2011 so Im not going to include them on this list.
The way I see it, Ibanez, Lidge, Baez, Schneider and Gload are all gone. That frees up $28.35mil (buyouts included) to resign Hamels, Madson, Rollins as well as bullpen arms and bench guys. When you factor in what those guys were making, it gives us roughly a $50mil budget to resign those guys and fill out the roster. Hopefully well be able fill those last two needs from within. Figure Hamels is going to get at least $16mil in arbitration (and a long term contract would likely make the number even higher), Madsons going to get a raise, possibly into the $8mil realm since hell likely take the 'closer' label from Lidge, and I dont see Rollins taking a pay cut so hes at least $9mil if not more. IMO, bare minimum, thats $33million dollars for those three guys. I think well also be looking for a fairly good bullpen arm which might cost us in the neighborehood of $5mil. Howards contract kicks in next year too so thats an extra $4mil.
The way I see it, the Phillies should be able to sneak by next year while keeping the team intact. Looks like 2012 wont be the year the Phillies 'window' slams shut after all, but we really, really needs to start getting younger/cheaper.