Early 2010 Pecota doesn't really like the Phills

by byosti on Feb 1, 2010 1:28 AM EST

85-77 would be a disappointment to say the least. Significantly down projections for Howard, Ibanez, Halladay, and most of the bullpen appear to be the cause.

Pecota didn't exactly set the world on fire with their 2009 projections, but it's still interesting to see. Pecota appears to be down on the National League as a whole with 86 wins topping the league with exceptions of meteoric rises from the Nats(81-81) and Diamondbacks(85-77). Not exactly sure how the Nats will shave almost 160 runs allowed from last year but onto the original topic at hand.

If I were a betting man, and I often times am, I would definitely take the over on Howard for 34 homers and Ibanez for 14 homers. A .079 and .134(!) drop in OPS, respectively, is pretty extreme and extremely down as compared other projections out there. On the positive side of the offense, Pecota really likes Polanco this year with a .053 jump in OPS. Amaro will look like a genius if that occurs.

Apparently the Phillies should have just traded for James Shields(3.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 152Ks) instead of Halladay(3.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 149Ks) this offseason. To think Shields will be just as good as Halladay is laughable.

The bullpen looks like an adventure this year. The lowest WHIP and ERA belongs to Madson (1.33, 3.84) but other than that, it doesn't look good. Aside from a small rebound from Lidge, the rest of the pen is filled with WHIPs in the mid 1s. Coming into this year the bullpen is my biggest worry as I don't think Contreras will be a good replacement for Chan Ho but hopefully Bastardo gets an opportunity to continue his winter success.

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what link are you looking at?

by PattheBat on Feb 1, 2010 9:39 PM EST reply actions

I see them projecting 88-74, with huge years from Utley, Hamels, and Halladay. Along with nice years from Polanco, Howard, Werth, Vic and Rollins.

by PattheBat on Feb 1, 2010 9:42 PM EST reply actions

Somebody around here should write up an in-depth Braves preview. Since it looks like they’re going to be a legitimate threat.

by taco pal on Feb 2, 2010 8:18 AM EST reply actions

I'd do it for you

But my laptop is broken and I won’t have a new one for a few weeks. I guess I could do it in a few weeks tho if you still wanted me too.

Remember folks, I'm almost always wrong.
My sig was too long...

by Scott Coleman on Feb 3, 2010 6:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

The BP people have been tweaking this year’s PECOTA ever since they put it up, and the latest projection has the Phillies at 88-74, 5 games better than the 2nd place Braves.

The thing to keep in mind is that PECOTA is a weighted mean of all potential outcomes, and that the core of this team (Utley, Halladay, Howard, Rollins, Werth, Ibanez) is past “peak” age. So while we might reasonably expect Howard to replicate what he’s done over the past few years, PECOTA sees his comps as Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Richie Sexson, and a bunch of other bad-bodied sluggers that essentially fell off a cliff after age 30. (I’d venture to guess that Howard getting himself in better shape is going to forestall the drop off, but that’s obviously something PECOTA can’t account for.)

Also of interest, while CHONE standings aren’t out yet, preliminary CAIRO — which only began (I believe) last year, but was closest to the mark — is out again for this year (see here). Spoiler alert: Phillies at 91.5 wins, but not tops in the NL.

by PhillyFriar on Feb 2, 2010 4:58 PM EST reply actions

and I did read in the Inquirer yesterday that reports are that Howard is working out in Clearwater and has lost even more weight. He must be onto this. Still, if true he is the exception rather than the rule of bad-bodied sluggers.

by Wet Luzinski on Feb 2, 2010 5:39 PM EST up reply actions

another point of Howard hopefully being the exception rather than the rule is the amount of dead center and opposite field homers he hits as compared with past sluggers with same body type.

They must have updated the projections either a day or two after I made it as I assure you, they when I wrote it, they were what I was at. But good to see they updated them in our favor and fixed a couple other things

by byosti on Feb 3, 2010 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

This is almost a TGP meme

I can’t even begin to tabulate the number of “Is Howard Mo Vaughn” threads over the last few years. I’ve been involved in many, so it’s not a critical comment. So much rides on it, though. If I am Howard, and I want to max my revenue after getting to the majors relatively late, I am certainly aware of the concern. When it’s your business and when it is worth millions of dollars, you would hope that discipline and training could be used to mitigate the damage caused by cheese steaks.

Howard, to his credit, really seems to have gotten the religion about this. I am left to wonder why people like Mo Vaughn and Cecil Fielder never did, unless twenty years ago it was somehow unknown that being fat and ut of shape led to declining performance and lower economic returns for a player.

I think Howard will avoid the “similar player” path that many presumed — he seems dedicated, disciplined, smart, and hard working. Evidence to support those “intangible” claims includes:

1. Weight loss last year
2. Improved defense

He is still a work in progress, and I think he can plateau for a while. As a fan of baseball, even if he doesn’t stay with the Phillies past his current contract, I am all for seeing players take better care of themselves and perform at high levels as long as possible. It makes for better players and better baseball.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Feb 13, 2010 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Howard is looking good......

I saw him New Years day at the Capital One Bowl in Orlando and he was looking slimmer and trimmer. By the way, I did say hi but didn’t bother him as he was entering the turnstiles.

by SmilingJPhilsPhan on Feb 3, 2010 6:29 PM EST up reply actions

More predictions...

I am running an exercise with my baseball simulator, where it plays each teams 2010 162-game schedule, with each game being played 10,000 times. Win expectancies are summed up from each game to come up with a seasonal win expectancy. I am currently through July 1st games. The current divisional leaders so far are… (Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, Cubs and Dodgers). The results can be followed here.

The good thing about using the simulator, is that you get the strength of schedule correctly factored in. Drawbacks include modelling playing time correctly for bench players.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 8, 2010 9:04 PM EST reply actions

Nice post

Thanks for the link and commentary with the link.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Feb 13, 2010 10:52 AM EST reply actions

Pecota's numbers are off

I looked at them and cannot swallow many. While I understand VORP is based on relative value within a position (i.e. Rollins compared to other SS, not to the universe of MLB position players) it is interesting to see that the VORP rankings of players on the Phillies is as follows:

1. Utley 57.3
2. Rollins 36.4
3. Werth 35.9
4. Howard 30.3
5. Victorino 30.1
6. Polanco 26.7
7. Ruiz 16.8
8. Ibanez 14.1

First, I wonder why Ibanez was paid so much… (Still chafing over that contract? Yup.) Admittedly, PECOTA and its VORP assumes with Ibanez a certain likelihood of injury. If Ibanez is healthy all year, his VORP will greatly exceed the PECOTA projections.

Second, much discussion has been made about swapping Utley to 1st if/when Howard leaves. If that happens, Utley’s VORP plummets, even if his production stays the same. His offensive production, compared to other 1B, would be worth much less in VORP terms. Utley goes from being an MVP-type player and potential HOF 2B to being a very good first baseman, but nothing even close to, for instance, a Pujols. When we think about VORP for Phillies teams in the future, the relative value of Utley at 2B is a huge premium over Utley at 1B.

Third, back to Ibanez…if a team can buy an older player with a low VORP (like Ibanez) and have the player stay healthy, getting a better VORP from him, it seems like there might be an opportunity to get cheap VORP. Two older injury risk players may present a good opportunity, cost-wise.

Fourth, cost-controlled players and VORP — Carlos Ruiz. Victorino. Compare same to Polanco/Werth (next year). The value of developing young talent and holding on to that talent through arbitration is made extremely clear by the PECOTA numbers. I’d like to see that chart side-by-sided with the contracts. I think a lot of the FA decisions that Joe Fan comes up with (and the popular analysis of the Cliff Lee situation: “SHOULDA KEPT BOTH!!!!”) clearly falls on its face upon such a review. Young, cheap talent is the name of the game here. [Thanks, RTP, we didn’t know that. Kindly state the obvious more often please.]

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Feb 13, 2010 11:12 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Ibanez is that low because of his age, which concedes injury. You are correct.

I don’t know who or where you are reading about Utley going to first, but that is just crazy on numerous levels. With his body type, he would more than likely shift to third or move to a corner outfield position. When looking at the scales of economy, there are an excess of players who can only cast into that first base role, therefore you can safely say that putting Utley there means this is a bad bad team. We would need to have massive gaping holes if he is put into the 1B position.

Back to Ibanez and VORP. Examples of this are laced all over MLB. There are two considerations when talking about this. First off, what is the cost? The Ibanez deal was horrible because he still needs to hold up another two years. Second is injuries and understanding them. The Phils won the Dick Martin award for basically having the least amount of injury time in the majors last season. They have a great medical staff but my ultimate point is that you have to manage the injury. Matsui is a prime example in Anaheim. He has no kness left, but as we all witnessed last year, staying in the dugout and PHing can keep him healthy enough to make it to the WS. They managed the risk in NY, as I am sure he will just DH in Anaheim.

Yes, young cheap talent is the name of the game here when you are not called the NY Yankees. Hell, even if you are the Yanks you better have some prospects to make a deal at the deadline if you have an injury or two.

by hessshaun on Feb 24, 2010 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

I say never trust an acroym that sounds likes some mining corporation responsible for ecological wonders like Butte, Montana where the air quality is so choice that you can’t have a cat for a pet because it’ll die from cleaning it’s arsenic and sulphur dust covered fur.

by j reed on Feb 13, 2010 5:58 PM EST reply actions