Talking Chop: Projecting the NL East Rotations
Pretty much confirms two things we already knew: The Braves have the best top-to-bottom starting staff in the division right now, and the Phillies might have some serious problems at the #5 spot in the rotation.
5 months ago
WholeCamels
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Much as I loathe all things Braves, gotta say that’s a pretty solid piece. Good analysis, well-written, not at all crazily homer-ish.
I do think they’re overrating Hanson a little bit, but maybe I’m over-concluding with respect to the struggles of young pitchers. Certainly possible that his 2010 will track Hamels’ 2007, which was pretty damn good.
All things considered, though, if your only real concern with the starting staff is #5, you’re doing better than most teams in baseball.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Feb 28, 2010 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed. And while none of the short to medium term possibilities for #5 are exciting—if that were the case they wouldn’t be potential #5s—between Moyer, Kendrick, Carpenter, Vogelsong, Savery, Flande and whatever else is out on the waiver wire (not to mention Pedro, who becomes more affordable for a reprise of ‘09 with every month he doesn’t sign elsewhere), I think they’ll be just fine.
The problem of course is what happens if one or more of the front four gets hurt. But that too is a universal concern.
Overall this looks like the best pre-season rotation since I dunno, 1994?
(Of course we all know what happened that year)
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Feb 28, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
I’d feel a lot better about the “throw poo against the wall, see what sticks at #5” if I didn’t know in my heart that Moyer was going to get the benefit of every inference and opportunity to screw up before they take the job from him.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Agree, and the sad part is that might be as late as June. This is not the Earl Weaver camp open audition it really could/should be.
by Wet Luzinski on Feb 28, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
I’m okay with Moyer getting the benefit of the doubt, at least to some degree. He’s such a weird, unique player in baseball history that I don’t feel comfortable writing him off even at age 47 and coming off major surgery. “What if he comes back and wins 16 games again?” says my subconscious. I don’t think it’s likely, but it piques my curiosity enough to want to find out.
well, me too. I just hope he is not so fool stubborn as Carlton and, if he needs to, realizes quickly that he doesn’t have it anymore rather than go on some quixotic adventure to pitch until he’s 50.
his quixotic adventure ends this year. I can’t see any team giving him another contract once this one’s up.
by Boundforbeach on Mar 1, 2010 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
Pray look better, Sir... those things yonder are no giants, but windmills
In order to attain the impossible, one must attempt the absurd. – Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra
I had a dream
that one of the recently reported side effects of anesthesia was the ability to throw a knuckleball.
I agree. It’s probably not very popular to back Moyer at this point, but I don’t see any reason why everyone assumes he’s cooked. He’s been the same pitcher for four straight years — it’s not like he’s really slipped in any facet of the game — just with varying amounts of luck.
2006: 4.72 xFIP — 2.12 K/BB — 81.7 mph FB
2007: 4.72 xFIP — 2.02 K/BB — 81.1 mph FB
2008: 4.53 xFIP — 1.98 K/BB — 81.2 mph FB
2009: 4.74 xFIP — 2.19 K/BB — 81.4 mph FB
Awe inspiring? No. Worth $6.5 million? Certainly not. But a decent bet to be a run-of-the-mill 5th starter, especially in front of the D the Phils will be running out there? I think so.
The second part, obviously, is how luck affected his final ERA.
2006: — 11.7% HR/FB — .286 BABIP — 4.30 ERA
2007: — 11.8% HR/FB — .309 BABIP — 5.01 ERA
2008: — 9.0% HR/FB — .294 BABIP — 3.71 ERA
2009: — 12.5% HR/FB — .292 BABIP — 4.94 ERA
Moyer’s career BABIP is .291, incidentally, so his 2008-09 numbers in that category really aren’t out of whack. It comes down to the gopher balls — if he can regress toward the league average 11.0% HR/FB and keep his other peripherals intact, I see no reason why he can’t post an ERA in the 4.50 to 4.75 range.
Good Karma
Well that’s reassuring but someone needs to see if there is correlation between any unusual hypertension cases among Phillies fans in their 30’s and the time Jamie Moyer’s pitched in red pinstripes .
Unfortunately, Fangraphs doesn’t have splits by role.
And yes, I realize he’s coming off surgery. But if he gets back to full health, there’s no reason he can’t be a passable #5.
All things considered, though, if your only real concern with the starting staff is #5, you’re doing better than most teams in baseball
I would agree with 100 % if I felt confident about Happ not regressing …as to how much if any at all we’ll see. Hopefully he improved his breaking pitches which may make his Invis-a-ball that must harder to deal with.
And I’ll quibble with the anti-Citizens Bank Park lens, but hey, if Bobby Cox and Brian McCann and John Smoltz said it, it must be true. It would be hard for me not to dittohead if the same alignment of Phillies (Manuel, Ruiz, Lidge) came out against another park.
by Wet Luzinski on Feb 28, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
He wrote it himself.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 28, 2010 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Its a good piece no question
But is anyone else tired of the Braves rallying cry (no, not that friggin song) of “we have the best rotaion in the NL East”? We know, ok? We know. Beatin a dead horse here.
not so much
It’s basically a fact. I don’t really get the “we have a better team” thing from them. It’s a rational conclusion.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
I know its a fact. Its a fact that they have stated numerous times, hence the beating of the deceased horse.
If you asked me to put the starting rotations of the NL East times in order of greatest to least, I would have come out with the exact same conclusion, only in way less time.
by philiafan14364 on Feb 28, 2010 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
Not to be confused with the Philly fans who talk about your awesome offense…
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Feb 28, 2010 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
shh! We’re trying to keep that a secret from y’all.
by Wet Luzinski on Feb 28, 2010 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
But those mean people at ESPN keep blowin our cover!
by philiafan14364 on Feb 28, 2010 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs polls, however, will likely always skew to the Phillies detriment — or at least that’s my hunch. Aside from the blogosphere, the hunch I get is that Phillies fans are not, as a whole, very tech-savvy. This might be mitigated a bit by nationwide attention as a result of consecutive WS appearances.
she gone
Looking at the Phillies’ HR/9 numbers, I’m remembering how traumatic the long ball was to the Phillies’ starters for the first couple of months last season… particularly Myers and Blanton. Didn’t it take like 20 games to have a starter not give up a single HR?
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Once again, my fact-checking may not be the best. But it looks like the 13-2 win vs. FLA on game #17 of the year (April 26—almost May) was the first starter-free oppo HR game of the 2009 season. Somewhat amazingly, the Phils still managed to go 8-8 in the first 16 games. Truly a watershed game, as the Phils went above .500 and stayed there for the rest of the year.
btw the winning pitcher in that game was Fish-killer Jamie Moyer.
by Wet Luzinski on Mar 2, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
I think it is not irrelevant to note that although the Braves’ failure to win more than one WS during their division title run was mostly bad luck, one of the biggest strategic mistakes they made that contributed to what happened to them was a tendency to overemphasize the back end of their starting rotation. They devoted resources there that could have been used for other areas of their ballclub – areas that would not have been useless during a short postseason series.
Great point. It also didn’t help that our offense would seemingly disappear in October every year, and our SP would not pitch as well. It seems that Smoltz was the only one who would step up for us.
It’s funny that you mention that, because a buddy of mine and I were having this exact conversation not 2 days ago.
"My team of nine guys who hit like Albert Pujols and never ever bunt just beat your team with one Shane Victorino 472 to 3."
by justincredubil02 on Mar 1, 2010 9:12 AM EST up reply actions
That’s a solid piece, and as WC said, it confirms statistically what we already know (the Braves have the deepest rotation, the Phillies have a gaping hole at #5, the Mets have serious question marks behind Santana, etc.).
The one question I have — and this is a Fangraphs issue, not a Talking Chop problem — is exactly how WAR is determined for pitchers. Case in point, Derek Lowe is a 4.0 WAR player by the fan projection while Cole Hamels is a 3.8 WAR player — but Hamels is projected to pitch more innings with a lower ERA and better peripherals.
I wanna see a BP homerun derby
Between Heyward and Ryan Howard. I’d take Howard, but it would be crazy to watch.
Omar Minaya is my hero!
by mvhsbball on Mar 1, 2010 6:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We might not have ace pitchers in slots #1-5?
ZOMG, fire Amaro!
[/sarcasm]
(just in case anyone didn’t pick up on it)
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
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