Best infield ever?
Conlin threw up this article recently. Before I even clicked on it, I knew it would include Tinkers to Evers to Chance. Of course, he discusses the potential place of Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Polanco among great infields (yet to be determined, I might add, as 2010 has not been played).
For fun, I decided to look at the question a bit (real baseball still being fairly far off). I excluded the position of catcher from the infield, since Conlin did, though I disagree with the idea. Consider the effect of that on teams such as the Reds of the 70's, the A's of the late 20's/early 30's, the Dodgers from the late 40's-50's, and the recent Yankee teams.
I do not possess a comprehensive, omniscient view of baseball history -- the selections below are just the ones I picked based on my base of information. Feel free to chime in with the teams you think I missed. Some of mine are one-hit wonders, some have more staying power. Mostly, they were good teams with one or two standouts and at least average play at the worst position(s). I'll address the issues that raises later.
I also included some of the better Phillies infields, even though they clearly do not belong with some of the others listed. I am not suggesting that they do -- they are there just for local flava. I was surprised at what the best Phillies infield turned out to be. [Drama!]
Candidates - Year/Team/1B/2B/3B/SS:
- 1967 Orioles: Powell, Johnson, Robinson, Aparicio. 407 OPS+. Not the best offensively, but that left side is tight.
- 1977 Dodgers: Garvey, Lopes, Cey, Russell. 422 OPS+. Substantially overrated. Included just to remind Russell Martin that the Dodgers of the 70's were overrated, too.
- 1976 Phillies: Allen, Cash, Bowa, Schmidt. 436 OPS+. Why couldn't the Phillies just get along with Dick Allen? Or vice versa? At least they got Willie Montanez out of it.
- 2009 Phillies: Howard, Utley, Feliz, Rollins. 443 OPS+. Rollins had a terrible year and Feliz had a normal (but terrible) year.
- 2006 Phillies: Howard, Utley, Bell, Rollins. 480 OPS+. A prelude that needed pitching.
- 2010 Imaginary, no-injury Guesstimate Phillies: 480 OPS+. Howard (140), Utley (135), Polanco (100), Rollins (105). Good, but not all-time great, unless someone goes nuts.
- 1998 Braves: Galarraga, Lockhart, Jones, Weiss. 482 OPS+. It wasn't just pitching that made the Braves good -- they had production at the corners.
- 1908 Pirates: Swacina, Abbaticchio, Leach and Wagner. 497 OPS+. The Wagner effect.
- 1981 Phillies: Rose, Trillo, Schmidt, Bowa. 511 OPS+. Mike Schmidt's best year. He was sort of good. Surprising to me that, at least using OPS+ totals, that this group outperformed recent Phillies infields.
- 1993 Blue Jays: Olerud, Alomar, Sprague, Fernandez. 528 OPS+. Surprising to me at first, but then less-so on reflection.
- 1927 Giants: Terry, Hornsby, Lindstrom, Jackson. 552 OPS+. Hall of Famers, every one.
- 1976 Reds: Perez, Morgan, Rose, Concepcion. 553 OPS+. The Big Red Machine.
- 2009 Yankees: Texiera, Cano, Rodriguez, Jeter. 557 OPS+. It still stings, but the Yankees didn't win because of a fluke.
- 1994 Astros: Bagwell, Biggio, Caminiti, Cedeno. 574 OPS+. Looks like the 1993 Phillies weren't the only ones on steroids.
I lack a good source of VORP or WAR for the whole data set from 1908 to present. Either/both would be really, really helpful. I'm left with OPS+, and a somewhat awful tactic of combining the OPS+ for several players. This inflates the value of first basemen (among other many and manifest ills), since I've biased toward offense alone and since I provide no adjustment for position. Essentially, this is an analysis of "good offensive" infields. Other metrics would be much, much better. I think the '67 Orioles would fare much better, for instance. I think the 2009 Phillies would fare better as well, honestly.
What of the Wagner effect? The 1908 and 1909 Pirates infields are virtually the same in total OPS+, but the only player that is the same from year to year is Honus Wagner. Incidentally, he provides much of the OPS+. This is not a good "infield"; this is just Honus being Honus. I discount the 1908/9 Pirates on that basis. The 1981 Phillies have a bit of that, too, since 199 of the OPS comes from Schmidt. On the other hand, Rose was very good that year. Bowa and Trillo were average. The 1981 Phillies also had a shortened season, which potentially hurts them -- maybe Schmidt would have cooled off, even though he was similarly good for pretty much all of 1980, for instance. It's arguable, anyway.
The Yankees of 2009 represent the flip side of the Wagner effect. Each player contributed at a rate well above league average: 149, 129, 147, 132. In addition, each of the players has a track record of being good for a fair period. Last year was no fluke, in other words. Texiera and Rodriguez are both very good defensively. Jeter less so, but not to the point of Knoblauchiness.
The 1994 Astros have a couple of problems, including steroids and a shortened season. Nevertheless, Biggio and Bagwell were unquestionably good for long stretches. Caminiti was excellent, though he was comprised nearly entirely of creatine and durabolin. Their numbers are just as authentic as the Yankees' numbers last year and the numbers of the 27 Giants, who benefited from the exclusion of black players from MLB.
Maybe the true winner here is the 1976 Reds:
- Strong OPS+ from all 4 positions (Perez/118, Morgan/187, Rose/141, Concepcion/107)
- Played before widespread steroid use (but not before amphetamines)
- Played during integration
- Long, productive careers from each (no fluky years)
- Supplemented, but not overwhelmed, by Morgan's ridiculous 1976 numbers
- The 76 Reds also perform well if the catcher is included, so I am less uneasy about the exclusion of catchers used unfairly at the outset
On a final note, Conlin suggested that the current Phillies team may be "...potentially the greatest all-around infield of a modern era that began in 1947 when Jack Roosevelt Robinson kicked down the door that had barred players of color from the major leagues."
Clearly, it isn't. While great, it is not objectively better than the Yankees infield of last year. The offensive production is just not there. The infield may not even be the best Phillies infield ever. Schmidt and Rose together were good for an OPS+ total of 318 in 1981. Utley and Howard have never combined for a total that high. If you throw in a catcher, the Phillies fare even worse compared to the true greats, including some teams not on this list because of the catcher exclusion.
If someone could flesh this out with some VORP or WAR data, I would be really interested in seeing it, as well as suggestions of infields I missed or excluded.
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Yeah, Conlin got pretty ridiculous there. No infield with Placido Polanco in it could possibly be the greatest of all time. (That is not a slight against Polanco.)
Now, if one could exclude both 3B and C, then the Phillies’ 1B/2B/SS combo would probably be pretty good by historical standards. If Rollins has a normal (for him) year, I think it would be pretty comparable to the Yankees’ 1B/2B/SS. A lot depends on how much better Cano gets during the remainder of his prime. Interestingly, Cano’s 2009 season at the plate was pretty comparable to Chase Utley’s age 26 season (although Cano was helped a lot more by his home ballpark that Utley was by CBP).
really though?
I love Chase Utley, and given Cano’s complete lack of walks and amazing lack of speed (for a middle infielder), he might improve a bit (like more consistent defense would help, and some guys did learn to walk more mid career, that and stop doing his best Kevin Stocker 1995 impression when guys are on base would help.) he’s not going to be Utley level prime guy but that last sentence doesn’t check out.
2006 Chase : Home = .969 OPS Away = .847 OPS
2009 Robbie: Home = .912 OPS Away = .832 OPS
They were pretty much similar in that regards too, Cano’s split was actually a little bit smaller (but since Chase hit better overall the difference is basically neglectable)
I was going by the tOPS calculated by Baseball Reference. Don’t have time to look it up now, but I believe Cano’s splits were 109/91 while Utley’s were 101/99. Also, I believe Utley’s age-26 year was ’05, not ’06.
ah ok
my mistake, though 05 seems more like the anomoly than the norms , Chase’s career tOPS split is 105/95, and that was with last year, where it was 92/108 . so he did have quiet a bit of a home split early in his career as well. (And last year was actually Cano’s most noticable home split, his career is 99/101 H/R .
Utley’s career tOPS splits are 105/95. He played very little at the Vet, so I’d guess his CBP-era splits are about the same. Obviously we don’t have anything to go on for Cano outside of his 109/91 for ‘09. I would characterize this as a not-enormous yet not-insubstantial factor adding to Utley’s margin. Also, as you indicated, Utley is far superior in all non-hitting aspects of the game. I don’t think hitting with runners on base is a skill, but clearly fielding and baserunning are skills that are very important.
exactly
I don’t think hitting with men on is a consistent skill either, but Cano’s fairly consistent (consistently terrible that is) split in that department have been realistically damaging to his value.
Cano has very good fielding talents, but he’s frustratingly inconsistent out there.
NYS and OLD YS isn’t actually that substaintial in difference of dimension, though obviously how last year’s effect played out was interesting (FWIW, it’s not like the Yankees didn’t kill the ball away from the park either), but would probably take a couple more years to see what it’s really like.
by RollingWave on Mar 10, 2010 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
Comparing Infields....
….is more about their ability to prevent runs than production. The entire baseball world isn’t about OPS.
God I hate f’ing Bill James!
fascinating
I wasn’t aware Bill James “invented” OPS.
You just keep tilting windmills, son.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
No, not really
It’s about both, equally.
But since it’s much more difficult to quantify defense these kinds of comparisons tend to get made in terms of offensive production. Would it make you happier if the thread title were “Best-hitting infield ever?”
I would probably hate f’ing him, too. I prefer women, actually, and my wife specifically. Also, from the original article:
“Essentially, this is an analysis of “good offensive” infields. Other metrics would be much, much better. I think the ’67 Orioles would fare much better, for instance. I think the 2009 Phillies would fare better as well, honestly."
Offensive statistics are much more widely available for comparison purposes. Data for the far past, if they even exist, are nearly useless.
I did make note of an excellent defensive Orioles infield (1967) that had Luis Aparicio and Brooks Robinson. I note for the record that Bill James did some excellent work on defense, too. He compared Nettles and Robinson quite favorably to each other in his analysis of the defensive merits of the two.
Open your mind. The statistical analysis used by many these days to look at baseball is no different, really, than what I did as a kid to calculate batting averages and ERAs. It’s really the same process, except that now there are more commonly-shared ideas about how to scrape away the defects in traditional numbers to get to a better way to compare players. I think it has made baseball a lot more fun, honestly.
Just roll with it. If you want to kick in some defensive thoughts, by all means, knock yourself out. The problem is that “errors” and “gold gloves” don’t really tell us much. It is about runs created and runs prevented. We all agree on that. Trying to measure the latter is really, really hard from a vantage point some eighty years later (in the case of the 27 Giants). I said as much in my original post.
Happy St. Pat’s. Have a beer, chill out, and enjoy Bill James 2010 almanac. Mine just came in the mail yesterday, and I’ve spent the last 12 hours in my mom’s basement reading it. I’m going to post about it on my blog later.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 13, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Whoa - missed the 82 Brewers
Cecil Cooper (138), Jim Gantner (107), Paul Molitor (110), and Robin Yount (150), for a total of 505. Yowza.
I kept looking for an Indians team in the 90s/early 2000s as well. Thome, Baerga, Fryman, and Roberto Alomar at various times. They had some in the 460+ range, too. Vizquel was adequate and a good glove.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 10, 2010 3:56 PM EST reply actions
Phils WARs plus some others
2006 Phillies:5.8/5.7/-0.7/3.5 = 14.3
2007 Phillies: 2.8/6.6/0.6/3.6 = 13.6
2009 Phillies: 4.8/7.7/1.7/0.9 = 15.1
1981 Phillies: 1.4/1.8/7.6/1.4 = 12.2, but they did not play a full year, so WAR is lower. Schmidt was probably good for another 2 WAR by himself, based on eyeballing 1980, which was 9.1 for him.
1976 Phillies: 0.8/4.3/8.5/1.1 = 14.7
1982 Brewers: 5.9/2.7/11.5/7.0 = 27.10!
1976 Reds: 1.8/10.0/6.7/3.8 = 22.30
Thanks for the WAR site, btw.
Also, someone else pointed me to the Bill James abstract where he essentially did this. It’s in the new abstract (2003 version, I think). Google’s searchable books makes at least part of it available.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 10, 2010 5:27 PM EST reply actions
2009 Yankees
21.4
that’s with A-rod sitting out a month.
And the 76 Phillies had Allen ad 1B for something like 300 AB. Throw in the rest of the platoon, whoever it was, and you probably beat the recent Phillies, too.
Thanks for doing the Yankees WAR for 2009. It makes you realize that the Brewers were really, really awesome in 1982. Their pitching must have been truly awful.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 11, 2010 4:18 AM EST up reply actions
The starters for the 82 Brewers were Mike Caldwell, Pete Vukovich, Moose Haas, Bob McClure, and Randy Lerch. Only Vukovich had an ERA+ over 100 (114). Caldwell was a 97, McClure a 90, Haas an 85, and Lerch a 76. To put it in the closest ERA+ equivalents for the Phillies, they had ’08 Moyer, ’08 Myers, ’07 Moyer, ’09 Moyer, and ’08 Eaton as their starting pitchers.
Neither Caldwell nor Lerch could strike anybody out, Lerch and McClure and Vukovich all walked more than 10% of the batters they faced, and the five starters gave up a combined 92 home runs in 956.1 innings.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
With that many base runners, I think they might still be playing.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 11, 2010 9:06 AM EST up reply actions
They were the epitome of the all-offense team. They averaged 5.47 runs per game, and gave up 4.40 runs per game, and were league-average in defensive efficiency. They had a really good offense, moderately crappy pitching (tied for 8th worst), and average fielding. Oddly, they were slightly below average for BB, and second-best for SO (only Cleveland struck out less). They consistently put bats on balls.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Some more pitching stats for the ’82 Brewers:
Team SO/9: 4.4
Team BB/9: 3.1
Team SO/BB: 1.4
Team WHIP: 1.38
Team ERA+: 95
The highest SO/9 in the rotation was 5.2, and that belonged to Doug McClure. They did have Rollie Fingers, though, who was predictably excellent (8.0 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9, 146 ERA+, 3.55 SO/BB)
But hey, pitching and defense win championships, right?
by ThinMountainAir on Mar 11, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
Am I correct that Rollie Fingers was injured and unavailable for the postseason? I wonder if that would’ve made a difference for them. That World Series was a seven gamer.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
Wiki confirms this. He had a torn arm muscle.
Milwaukee didn’t blow any saves in the series, so maybe it wouldn’t have mattered. On the other hand, St. Louis won Game 2 by scoring one in the bottom of the eighth off Bob McClure in a tied game. And in Game 7, they were up one and got two big runs off McClure to put the series away, again in the eighth. Closers were used pretty differently back then, so who knows.
If it weren't a non sequitur...
I’d say that is a profile pic, sir.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 11, 2010 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
1994 Astros
In about a 2/3 of a season (projection)
Bagwell: 8.9 (13.3)
Biggio: 4.8 (7.2)
Caminiti: 3.9 (5.8)
Cedeno: 0.5 (1.0)
18.1 (27.3).
This groups should be in this discussion, despite the taint of Caminiti’s steroid issues. Bagwell had an MVP year with an OPS+ of 212. 212.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 11, 2010 5:00 AM EST up reply actions
You got me all excited by starting your post, “Conlin threw up” tho’ I do suspect that this does get at his creative process.
I go for the controversial topics and I try to stake out some pretty far “out there” positions. Therefore, “Bill Conlin is a doofus” is right up my alley.
I hated to do it on a “sum of OPS+” basis, since that is so wrong and it put me into Conlinesque territory, but it was a quick and dirty way to illustrate the point. The WAR makes it even more clear, though. The 1982 Brewers, for instance, are so far beyond the current Phillies infield that it is not remotely close. The Reds and Yankees, too.
The surprising thing to me was how good some of the Schmidt infields were (and Schmidt). Alex Rodriguez produced a WAR of 3.9 at 3B last year, sitting out a month or so. In 1981 (a partial season because of the strike), Schmidt produced a WAR of 7.6. His 1977: 9.6; 1980: 9.1; 1974: 10.5. http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/s/schmm001.htm Those are insane numbers. He is out WARing Utley and Howard combined in some of those years because of the 3b premium and because his production was so ridiculous in context (and in the Vet versus CBP).
To some extent, that the 70/80’s Phillies infields compared favorably to the current Phillies was nonintuitive for me because offensive numbers are so inflated even now. Also, players play differently, now that more people know how to maximize run production — don’t make outs, hit home runs, and it is OK to strike out. Schmidt was a “modern player” in that sense in the 70’s.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 11, 2010 4:41 AM EST up reply actions
Vet vs. CBP
By its final years in 2001-2003, the Vet was solidly pitcher-friendly compared to the rest of MLB, and CBP is certainly more hitter-friendly than the Vet was. But it should be noted that for most of its short history, CBP has played about neutral. For the past 3 years it has consistently boosted scoring by 3%, ranking it 14th, 15th, and 13th — one of the fairest parks in the land, in more ways than one.
You want park factor? How about this in 1981 for the Vet:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/1981.shtml
Here’s 1981 for Wrigley (the 1981 Cubs were hilariously bad, btw — just worth it for the drive-by factor):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/1981.shtml
And for the Astrodome:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/HOU/1981.shtml
The results for Houston and Chicago are in line with my expectations. The Vet? Less so.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Mar 11, 2010 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
Did anyone mention the ‘29 Philadelphia A’s…..to some baseball insiders it was the fielding that gave them a nose length over the ‘27 Yanks as the greatest team ever. I can’t go NewRoid Yankees three-peat as the greatest. Just how the A’s fielding compared to what been listed, I don’t have the time or the finger speed to type the stats that fast….have to get back to oh we oh weoh-oh oh we oh weoh-oh
I’m late to the party here, but just wanted to chime in that this was a great piece, RememberthePhitans. The WAR totals, especially, illustrate just how ridiculous of an argument this was from Conlin.
Yeah, and let’s not forget this fiasco.
by ThinMountainAir on Mar 13, 2010 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
I missed that. I had always suspected this was worse than it was.
by Wet Luzinski on Mar 14, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

























