Moyer at 47

by David S. Cohen on Mar 25, 2010 3:34 PM EDT

This is a boring spring training. The team is relatively healthy. There are no major position battles. There's only one new position player, and he's someone we're already familiar with. And the Roy Halladay excitement really occurred in November. We're left to sit and watch players who have done this before and we know pretty well sleep walk through a month of exhibitions.

April can't come soon enough.

But, there is one thing that is not set in stone, and that's the fifth starter. Twenty-five year old Kyle Kendrick is trying to take the job away from forty-seven year old Jamie Moyer. I gave Kendrick up for dead last spring, but so far he has a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings with opponents hitting .149 against him.

Moyer, on the other hand, has pitched mostly B games with mixed results. In his one game that "counts," he gave up 1 run in 5 innings. So far, the Phillies have indicated that Moyer has the job.

But what can they expect if he goes to the mound as a 47-year old pitcher? Prediction systems have a very hard time with him because what he's trying to do has rarely been done before.

I'm not about to answer the question, but what I am going to do is give you some information. There have been just 5 pitchers in MLB history who have pitched at the age of 47. And almost 60% of the 47-year old innings were pitched by Phil Niekro in 1986, when he went 11-11 as a starting pitcher, completed 5 games, and had a 4.32 ERA (but a 5.40 RA). Here's the chart:

Player	Year	Tm	G	GS	W-L	SV	IP	ERA	ERA+	RA	WHIP
Kaiser Wilhelm	1921	PHI	4	0	0-0	0	8	3.38	130	3.38	1.75
Nick Altrock	1924	WSH	1	0	0-0	0	2	0		4.50	2.00
Jack Quinn	1931	BRO	39	1	5-4	15	64.1	2.66	145	3.93	1.39
Hoyt Wilhelm	1970	TOT	53	0	6-5	13	82	3.4	128	3.62	1.40
Phil Niekro	1986	CLE	34	32	11-11	0	210.1	4.32	96	5.40	1.60

So what can we conclude from this chart about Jamie Moyer? I would say absolutely nothing other than the following pretty uninformative pieces of information: 1) what he's trying to do this year is virtually unprecedented; and 2) if we get anything positive out of him this year it will be historically noteworthy.

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As historically noteworthy as Kaiser Wilhelm?

What a great name. I hope he had the same mustache as the real dude.

by Steve J on Mar 25, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

Kaiser Wilhelm

I nearly called bullshit.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wilheka01.shtml

BR puts his ERA+ at 123 for his massive sample size of 8IP.

I accuse you of posting this solely to work a former Phillie, Kaiser Wilhelm, into a post. Are you playing player bingo with the other Blog Lords?

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Mar 25, 2010 3:58 PM EDT reply actions

Yikes – debuted in 1903. Must have had a hard time in the locker room, you know, being an enemy of the free world and all.

by Steve J on Mar 25, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions

i’m picturing kaiser wilhelm the phillie in the dugout playing out the the scene in office space where the character named michael bolton goes “why i should change my name? he’s the one who sucks!”

by Matt Swartz on Mar 25, 2010 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I was thinking about the irony that the guy was a pitcher and the one bent on world-domination had a withered arm.

by Steve J on Mar 25, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

this is also an excellent screen name for anyone out there named Bill who would like some real old-school Philly street cred and wants to join TGP.

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 25, 2010 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, it was Dumbledore who had the withered arm, and he was not bent on world domination. Rather, he was bent on Grindelwald, IIRC.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Mar 25, 2010 10:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

snizzle

snap

by dajafi on Mar 25, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I once drunkenly made a friend promise he’d never befriend the Kaiser, I’m afraid I’m going to have to eat those words now.

"I remember being three and I wanted to be a baseball player, that's all I ever really wanted to be. That and Spider Man." -Raul Ibanez

by Jose and the Contrarians on Mar 25, 2010 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions

an oldie but goodie

“Being Jamie Moyer” from the Hardball Times.

by taco pal on Mar 25, 2010 4:07 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the link taco. How could one be married to a long time Mariners fan and not love Jamie as well? As an older guy I say we need the love too, let Jamie have his day in the sun.

by Steve-O- on Mar 25, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

day? We’re bordering on epoch here.

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 25, 2010 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Satch

Maybe the article is about pitchers at exactly 47, but Satchel Paige, then 58, pitched one game, 3 innings, for the Kansas City A’s in 1965. 10 batters faced, one strikeout, one hit. His ERA+ that year was 200.

by lseltzer on Mar 25, 2010 4:18 PM EDT reply actions

Yes

This is about players in their age-47 year. There are players who have played at an older age, including Satchel Paige. And, of course, Phil Neikro continued to play.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 25, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I will say that I’m glad that they’re only relying on him to be the fifth starter, and that they have some sort of palatable backups should the whole journey end.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 25, 2010 5:13 PM EDT reply actions

I just find it hard to believe that of the five guys who’ve ever done this, two of them have the last name “Wilhelm.” Not even sure how you calculate the odds on that sort of thing, but there it is.

by dajafi on Mar 25, 2010 11:34 PM EDT reply actions

Did someone say "Wilhelm"?

Enjoy!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 26, 2010 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Even that other Kaiser Wilhelm’s last name wasn’t “Wilhelm”.

by taco pal on Mar 26, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for this, David. Some may see it with a “Well, history isn’t on Jamie’s side, so we’re screwed” slant; maybe I’m full of spring optimism, but I read this to show just how incredible a specimen Moyer is. I honestly think he’s a good bet to put up a similar season to what he’s done the past four years, which would put him in pretty exclusive company.

by PhillyFriar on Mar 26, 2010 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed. It’s like, history hasn’t been on Jamie’s side for years now. What else is new?

by taco pal on Mar 26, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Hoyt and Niekro were knuckleballers and it isn’t unheard of knuckleballers lasting must longer than typical pitchers which makes Moyer that much more of an oddity.

by j reed on Mar 26, 2010 3:08 AM EDT reply actions

Quinn

and Quinn was a spitballer. one of the last legal ones grandfathered in when the pitch was banned; I think Burleigh Grimes was the official last spitball pitcher.

by perfectdepth on Mar 26, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

So let me get this straight...

Of the 5 pitchers who have attempted to compete at age 47:
2 were knuckleballers
1 was a spitballer
2 pitched before 1930

And after doing a little research on Satchel Paige, I learned he was touring with the Harlem Globetrotters when he was 47 and doing a “baseball bit” in which he would pitch a basketball.

Which one of these does Moyer comp best with? My guess would be if you plug all these guys into a model and then see how Moyer looks all you’ll get out of it is a big photo of Dutch’s face and some cryptic message about how the apocalypse is imminent.

by Steve J on Mar 26, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions