Some Phillies Links for You: March 29, 2010

by WholeCamels on Mar 29, 2010 8:36 AM EDT

Five questions: Philadelphia Phillies
Bill Baer from Crashburn Alley does a Phillies preview for The Hardball Times. Go! Read! Now!

Is it too early for Phillies to worry about Raul Ibanez? | Philly2Philly.com
I will go out on a limb here with a definitive "MAYBE!!"

Thome watches Phils' success with pleasure | Philadelphia Inquirer | 03/28/2010
Signing Jim Thome really was the moment everything changed for this franchise. All the pieces weren't there to win quite yet -- especially pitching -- but it was a clear signal that the team was a legit destination.

Bounce-back season for Burrell is needed | HeraldTribune.com
We're rooting for you, Pat.

Phil Sheridan: On paper, this Phillies team is tops | Philadelphia Inquirer | 03/29/2010

It doesn't always make sense. Rollins' numbers look horrid for a leadoff hitter. Ryan Howard strikes out so much no one notices that the rest of the lineup strikes out too much, as well. The rotation has undergone major changes every year, a sure sign of desperation.

Sigh. 1. Strikeouts don't really matter; 2. The rest of the team doesn't really strike out that much. It's true!

Former GM Wade set Phils in motion | Philadelphia Inquirer | 03/29/2010
Interesting read. We've been saying this around here a lot, too (jonk mostly). Ed Wade really did a lot for this current Phillies team. He wasn't perfect, but...

Change in draft philosophy led to Phillies' success | Philadelphia Inquirer | 03/29/2010
Another interesting read.

Madson will open season as Phillies closer | Philadelphia Daily News | 03/29/2010
It'd be really really nice to see him have a few nice appearances to start the season so we don't have to hear about how Ryan Madson lacks "closer mentality."

Phillies Notebook: Werth lunches with Reggie Jackson, denies talk of Yankees recruiting | Philadelphia Daily News | 03/29/2010
Fine. Go to New York. See if we care. Shave the beard, though. And get ready for me to call you a BASTARD IN A BASKET.

Job in Phillies rotation is Jamie Moyer's to lose - mcall.com
We've been over this quite a bit here on The Good Phight. Jamie Moyer is almost impossible to project at this point. Of course the smart money is on a 47 year old starting pitcher's failure, but Moyer's been confounding prognosticators for years now. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

Tweet Comment 22 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Sheridan's piece

Was so annoying. For what you pointed out and for his penultimate paragraph: “With Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, and Moyer in the rotation, and with Lidge and Romero joining the bullpen at some point in the first month, and with a lineup that produces runs instead of happy sabermetricians – this is the best Phillies team of this era.”

Do you think the average Inky reader has any clue what he’s talking about with that big s word in the last line?

by David S. Cohen on Mar 29, 2010 9:28 AM EDT reply actions

And what, exactly, about the Phillies’ lineup fails to make sabermetricians happy? Pray tell, Mr. Sheridan.

by PhillyFriar on Mar 29, 2010 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Rollins.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Mar 29, 2010 9:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Some things about Rollins. He steals successfully, he’s durable, he hits for power (doubles if not as many hr as in the past).

Take some pitches, jroll.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Mar 29, 2010 10:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

And he’s a plus-defender at the most important defensive position.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 29, 2010 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

The main thing I don’t like with Rollins is his first-pitch swing tendency. His BABIP was ridiculously bad last year (.254), which I think might be related to swinging at the first pitch. He doesn’t really get a chance to see what the pitcher’s doing, so even though he makes contact, it’s not good contact.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Mar 29, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s a fair point, and pretty much the entire TGP crew agrees that Rollins’ skill set is ill-suited to make him a leadoff hitter.

But — and maybe I’m reading too much into it — Sheridan seems to imply that anyone with a handle on advanced statistics dislikes the Phillies lineup as a whole, rather than the order. We can nitpick over the order, but it’s a damn good lineup. If I qualify as a “sabermetrician,”* I for one am happy with the lineup.

*I think Sheridan would qualify all of us as sabermetricians because we use OPS.

by PhillyFriar on Mar 29, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Well-done, Bill Baer. Effectively encapsulated an entire off-season of discussion right there. That optimal lineup would rock. The one they’ll put out there anyway is also pretty damn good.

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 29, 2010 10:46 AM EDT reply actions

Crashburn Alley is up against Beerleaguer today at thephield. Baer’s piece made me point and click for him, even though I like Beerleaguer a lot, independent of the constant refresh feature and a less hospitable commenting environment (I’ve found, anyways).

by Wet Luzinski on Mar 29, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Strikeouts don't really matter???

Are you serious? A strikeout is the worse possible outcome from an at-bat (save a double a play) The more it happens the less runs a team is likely to produce because runners aren’t advancing.

"For every moment of triumph, for every instance of beauty, many souls must be trampled"- Hunter S. Thompson

by phishead_psu on Mar 29, 2010 11:09 AM EDT reply actions

With Howard, it's not the worst thing that could happen

A grounder that gets any other runner out and puts Howard on first? Worse, because he’s slower than anyone batting ahead of him.

A pop fly that gets Howard out and doesn’t advance any one? Equal – an out is an out is an out if nobody advances.

Basically, the only things better than a strikeout are a hit or a sac. Anything else is pretty much equal to or worse than a strikeout.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Mar 29, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions

believe it or not, the parenthetical double play is a huge issue. runners are on first base far more often than second or third, but runners on first base generally don’t advance on outs. you also don’t get very much out of moving from second to third because most players score from either base on a single anyway. that’s why the actual numbers of runs you cost yourself with a regular out is about 0.3 and the average number of runs you cost yourself with a strikeout is about the same. sacrifice flies are great, and sac bunts are better than regular outs, but most regular outs just don’t advance runners and they are often more likely to lead to double plays.

by Matt Swartz on Mar 29, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Just to illustrate the point about double plays, since 2006 (Howard’s first full season), Ryan has grounded into 42 double plays. Perhaps the greatest hitter in the game today is Albert Pujols, and he rarely strikes out, but has paid for his contact abilities in GIDPs: 86 over the same time frame. That’s 44 extra outs Pujols cost the team. I don’t know how to determine how many more times than Howard Pujols advanced runners with his in-play outs, bit it would take a lot to make up for 44 runners erased.

by phatj on Mar 29, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

As a whole, the Phillies had the fewest GDP per PA of any team in the league, with only 90 in 6338, or 1 GIDP per 70.4 PA. The next best was Arizona, with 1 GIDP per 67.4 PA. The league average was 1 GIDP per 49.3 PA, with Houston being the absolute worst, at 1 GIDP per 39.5 PA.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Mar 29, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

with only 90 in 6338, or 1 GIDP per 70.4 PA

And at least 80 of those were probably the fault of Pedro Feliz. We will now be unstoppable.

by Cormican on Mar 29, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

f(x)gidp=[(GIDPPolanco-GIDPFeliz)/Phillies], while not equal to zero, is probably not far off. Certainly not unstoppable. 1

1 B.S. math-looking thing. Essentially, the Phillies plus Polanco minus Feliz’ GIDP is more or less equal. Feliz = 12 in 2009: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=hou&playerID=150268&section1=1&section2=1&statSet2=1&section3=1&statSet3=1&statSet1=2

Polanco = 15 in 2009: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=phi&playerID=135784&section1=1&section2=1&statSet2=1&section3=1&statSet3=1&statSet1=2

Just FYI.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Mar 29, 2010 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

True, but then you also have to factor in the speed factors of the players around them. The three batters ahead of Polanco were Curtis Granderson, Adam Everett, and Ryan Raburn. Of those three, only Granderson is fast, and they combined for 49 home runs last year. Ahead of Feliz were Howard, Werth, and Ibanez. None of those three are speedsters, but they’re all decent, and they combined for 115 dingers, meaning Feliz was more likely to be in an empty base situation.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Mar 30, 2010 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions

You guys…I’m getting kinda worried about the bullpen.

What if Lidge sucks again? What if Madson sucks too? What if Romero can’t throw strikes?

by FuquaManuel on Mar 29, 2010 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

Me too

My worries for 2010:

1. Bullpen
2. Ibanez falls off cliff (mitigated somewhat by tolerable replacements Francisco/Brown)
3. Polanco can’t hack it at 3rd

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Mar 29, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

If Lidge is as bad or worse than he was last year, will they pull the same shit of leaving him in there for the vast majority of the season or will they go to someone like Baez or Madson? I really hope he is just never installed at closer after coming back from his injury. Or at least he is not installed at closer until he demonstrates that he is once again the best reliever on the team.

I don’t have much hope for Lidge based on his injury and his ST performances thus far.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 29, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

For example, Madson was shaky again today. He has had few truly good outings this spring. I’m praying for no carryover.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 29, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Correct -- Phillies strike out less than average

“Sigh. 1. Strikeouts don’t really matter; 2. The rest of the team doesn’t really strike out that much. It’s true!”
-
Yes, it is true. The Phillies were 6th toughest to strikeout in the NL last year (PAs per K). Obviously fewer would be better, all else being equal, and Polanco should help a bit.

by schmenkman on Mar 29, 2010 1:20 PM EDT reply actions